Japan's economy to grind to a halt in 2nd quarter: JPMorgan

[TaiShang]

Despite lower Yen and strong QE?

JUN 26, 20152:30 PM
[TOKYO] Japan's economy is slowing to a halt this quarter, JPMorgan Chase & Co said Friday, cutting its growth estimate on a drag from trade and weaker-than-expected consumer spending.

The world's third-biggest economy will mark zero growth in the three months through June, JPMorgan economist Masamichi Adachi said in a report, lowering a previous forecast for an annualized expansion of 1.5 per cent.

"Incoming hard data related to consumption have been consistently weaker than our expectation," Mr Adachi wrote. A "large" decline in Japan's net trade reported last week also dimmed his estimate for growth in the quarter.

The rebound in household spending last month only partly reversed a drop in April and was weaker than expected, Adachi said. The soft consumption comes as companies are working off an inventory buildup that helped to drive faster growth in the first three months of the year, pressuring industrial output.

"We still expect that the consumption will strengthen in summer, particularly with the expected rise in summer bonuses, which are paid mainly in June. Still, our confidence to the strength of consumption is now lower than before," Mr Adachi said.

Japan's economy is still weighed down by a sales-tax increase last year, which triggered a recession. A survey of economists by Bloomberg points to 1.4 per cent growth this quarter, following a 3.9 per cent expansion in the first three months of the year.

Even if spending continued to rise by another 2 per cent in June from the previous month, private consumption may have stagnated this quarter, according to Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics.

"With increasing signs that the economic recovery is faltering, we think the BOJ will have to step up the pace of easing before too long, perhaps as soon as October," Mr Thieliant wrote.

BLOOMBERG

Japan's economy to grind to a halt in 2nd quarter: JPMorgan, Government & Economy - THE BUSINESS TIMES

@tranquilium , @Shotgunner51

 

[Economic superpower]

Japanese economy is dead. It's been dead since the 1990 crash and they refused to let banks and companies fail. They propped up failed entities and refused to let the market clear.

Japan won't ever come back. It might have the odd good year but in general, Japan is dead. It has no future.

 

[cirr]

Japan needs to devalue its currency to 200 to the dollar to stand any chance of a prolonged，albeit moderate，economic recovery。If not，another 10 lost years is staring right at the country。

 

[Aepsilons]

Why this news is a 180 degree contrast to this:

In fact, our economy grew 3.9% just on the 1st quarter alone.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/07/world/asia/ap-as-japan-economy.html?_r=0

 

[TaiShang]

Japanese economy is dead. It's been dead since the 1990 crash and they refused to let banks and companies fail. They propped up failed entities and refused to let the market clear.

Japan won't ever come back. It might have the odd good year but in general, Japan is dead. It has no future.

I guess Japan Post is one of those entities that should have long been allowed to go down. I am not sure about its current standing, but, it is never wise to prop up an entity that is meant to go down.

 

[Aepsilons]

Japanese economy is dead. It's been dead since the 1990 crash and they refused to let banks and companies fail. They propped up failed entities and refused to let the market clear.

Japan won't ever come back. It might have the odd good year but in general, Japan is dead. It has no future.

LOL!

Ouch, ouch!

 

[Economic superpower]

Japan needs to devalue its currency to 200 to the dollar to stand any chance of a prolonged，albeit moderate，economic recovery。If not，another 10 lost years is staring right at the country。

Its been 25 lost years.
Thats a generation that has been lost.

I guess Japan Post is one of those entities that should have long been allowed to go down. I am not sure about its current standing, but, it is never wise to prop up an entity that is meant to go down.

When an entity constantly makes losses, the market is giving a signal that entity is a failure. When the government props up a failing entity, it distorts the economy and the efficiency of the economy is damaged.

Japan bailed out everyone and now they are facing the consequences of that. If they let the market clear in 1990 and let bad entities fail, they would have experienced a severe collapse but would have been back up in 2 or 3 years.

But now the debt is so big in Japan, they can't afford to let the market clear so they are stuck.

 

[Aepsilons]

Japan's economy is growing at 3.9% just this 1st quarter, and its mobilizing even further, stronger for 2nd quarter.

I think I'm okay with Japan, as an advanced and super-developed country with the average Japanese earning well above $37k (USD) ---- and the nation growing at a healthy 3.9% rate.

Not bad. Not bad at all for a nation of over 128 million.

Addendum: As a super developed nation, Japan's target growth rate of at least 1.5 to 2 % per annum is benchmark.

Other under-developed nations should take note. And before they even talk about us, at least hit our per capita level and development status.

At least when Japan hit the bubble , our GDP per capita was one of the highest in the world, as well as the Japanese economy one of the largest. This has remained the reality even now.

 

[TaiShang]

Japan bailed out everyone and now they are facing the consequences of that. If they let the market clear in 1990 and let bad entities fail, they would have experienced a severe collapse but would have been back up in 2 or 3 years.

But now the debt is so big in Japan, they can't afford to let the market clear so they are stuck.

I wonder there if there is a ceiling/limit to excessive-QE and debt-driven growth? If something is artificially kept afloat , the consequences will be even more severe.

 

[cirr]

Why this news is a 180 degree contrast to this:

In fact, our economy grew 3.9% just on the 1st quarter alone.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/06/07/world/asia/ap-as-japan-economy.html?_r=0

July 2, 2015 12:50 pm JST

JCER estimate

Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May

TOKYO -- Gross domestic product in Japan in May contracted 0.2% in real terms from the previous month, the Japan Center for Economic Research said Wednesday.

The second consecutive month-to-month contraction was blamed on a sharp 5.2% decrease in exports, especially those to the U.S. and China.

Capital spending showed a decline of 0.2 %. It was the first time in three months that capital spending has shrunk.

Consumer spending increased 0.6%, the first gain in two months.

JCER estimate: Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May- Nikkei Asian Review

Still，DON‘T believe in ANY so-called analysis or prediction。

No one can read into the future，not a matter concerning oneself in a day，let alone something as complex as a nation's economy in a year，or anything else for that matter。

 

[TaiShang]

July 2, 2015 12:50 pm JST

JCER estimate

Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May

TOKYO -- Gross domestic product in Japan in May contracted 0.2% in real terms from the previous month, the Japan Center for Economic Research said Wednesday.

The second consecutive month-to-month contraction was blamed on a sharp 5.2% decrease in exports, especially those to the U.S. and China.

Capital spending showed a decline of 0.2 %. It was the first time in three months that capital spending has shrunk.

Consumer spending increased 0.6%, the first gain in two months.

JCER estimate: Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May- Nikkei Asian Review

Still，DON‘T believe in ANY so-called analysis or prediction。

No one can read into the future，not a matter concerning oneself in a day，let alone something as complex as a nation's economy in a year，or anything else for that matter。

That's despite of cheap Yen and money injection into the economy. Interesting...

 

[Economic superpower]

That's despite of cheap Yen and money injection into the economy. Interesting...

I was just about to say that.

Japan has been doing QE and had 0% interest rates, yet their economy is shrinking.

 

[grand]

rapid aging , steep decline in population, rising debt, almost zero natural resources, nuclear meltdown & radiation, volcano eruptions, earthquakes, tsunami, women attracted to gorilla instead of men. the end result: japan is finished.

 

[Aepsilons]

July 2, 2015 12:50 pm JST

JCER estimate

Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May

TOKYO -- Gross domestic product in Japan in May contracted 0.2% in real terms from the previous month, the Japan Center for Economic Research said Wednesday.

The second consecutive month-to-month contraction was blamed on a sharp 5.2% decrease in exports, especially those to the U.S. and China.

Capital spending showed a decline of 0.2 %. It was the first time in three months that capital spending has shrunk.

Consumer spending increased 0.6%, the first gain in two months.

JCER estimate: Japan GDP shrinks 0.2% in May- Nikkei Asian Review

Still，DON‘T believe in ANY so-called analysis or prediction。

No one can read into the future，not a matter concerning oneself in a day，let alone something as complex as a nation's economy in a year，or anything else for that matter。

My dear lovely,

Please notice the positive linear trend since 2008 till now.




LOL!



Dai Nippon!

 

[Economic superpower]

rapid aging , steep decline in population, rising debt, almost zero natural resources, nuclear meltdown & radiation, volcano eruptions, earthquakes, tsunami, women attracted to gorilla instead of men. the end result: japan is finished.

Not to mention Japanese companies are making big losses, their famous tech companies are not even relevant these days.

Japan was only going to stay relevant as long as China was closed off. Once China opened up the economy, Japan's relevancy started to decrease.