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I secretly shared two diplomats - one French and one British - the Middle East as pieces of cake at the end of the First World War .
Now draw military planners new boundaries and a new Middle East. The strategic rules will change dramatically .
The result may be that what today are five countries , Iraq , Yemen , Libya , Saudi Arabia and Syria , can end up being 14 different nations.
Among the names that can be typed on the world map , are religiously -based names like Stan Sunni , Shia and Stan Wahhabistan , or historical names such as Tripoli and Cyrenaica Tana .
Not all new ideas
The new scenarios are not entirely new , but echoes of the " Zionist Plan for the Middle East ", published in Hebrew in the journal Kivunim , winter 1982.
It stated: "Any internal Arab confrontation will assist us in the short term and will reduce the road to a solution of Iraq , in the area based on religion , as in Syria and Lebanon ... So three (or more) states will be; around the three major cities of Basra , Baghdad and Mosul . The Shiite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. " Moreover it was said :" The entire Arabian peninsula is a natural candidate for dissolution due to internal and external pressure , " and" a breakdown of Egypt in clear and distinct regions is a target for Israel. "
The man behind the plan was Oded Yinon , an Israeli with some connection to the Foreign Ministry in West Jerusalem . The analysis , published in the time shift " for Judaism and Zionism ," received little mention , but today , the author might smile with glee that the trend is moving in the direction he foresaw
New frontiers , new states
The other pressure The New York Times a map of a future Middle East, based on a speculative article by former foreign correspondent Robin Wright, now a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace .
Wright argues that developments in Syria creates a watershed in the Middle East . The Arab Spring was the beginning of a new trend . Here the powers that lay dormant between rival religious groups , tribes and ethnic background, wild. The current division of the Middle East states were created by European colonizers and defended the Arab autocrats .
Because Syria is a strategic hub for the region , the Civil War's outcome have serious consequences for the entire region , says Wright. The country is a patchwork of religious and ethnic groups , but the stitching is done with thread.
Before Hafez al - Assad came to power in a bloodless coup in 1970 , there had been more than half a dozen similar power shifts during the twenty preceding years . Air Force General was seated as president until his death thirty years later, in 2000.
When his son , Bashar al - Assad , took over the seemingly stable countries , based on the ruthless control of the population using a whole range of security services , there was little evidence Revolution .
And when the uprising began and the country exploded , there were many who expected that people power would topple the president. They hoped for a blueprint of what had happened in Egypt , Libya and Tunisia. It did not work .
After 30 months of civil war sitting Bashar al - Assad is still in power. But at least 120 000 people have been killed and two million have fled their homes , inside and outside Syria.
Syria divided into three
The civil war has divided Syria into three highlighted regions, each with its own characteristics. One narrow state-controlled corridor from the south, through Damascus, Homs and Hama to the northern Mediterranean coast.
In the north, it created a little Kurdistan has been autonomous since last year. The largest acreage holder rebels. The village is mostly Sunni Muslim Syrians.
And it is this that has tracked Robin Wright to speculate about the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula's future.
In Syria in neighboring Iraq is not yet done a complete breakdown. The reason is foreign pressure, fear of being left alone and loyalty paid with Iraqi oil money. But the horror of the civil war in Syria should take Iraq down in quicksand, is real.
Ariel Sharon (tr) together with Israel's then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Already in 1982 would change the Sharon Middle East-carded.
Israel's strategic interests
Sharon was in line with Yinon who suggested that the Arab states would be destroyed from within by utilizing internal religious and ethnic tensions . " Lebanon should be dissolved and to three provinces and serve as a precursor for the entire Arab world including Egypt , Syria , Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula . "
In addition Sharon would extend Israel's " strategic and security interests" . These would include " Turkey , Iran and Pakistan , and regions such as the Persian Gulf and Africa , especially in countries in North and Central Africa . "
The once- not Sharon not that Lebanon was a honey trap, he just smelled the honey . The current Israeli Prime Minister , Benjamin Netanyahu , has abandoned plans to change the map by sending forces into the ground in neighboring countries.
Instead he concentrates on influencing the U.S. to achieve regime change in Iran , with the consequences that will provide for Iraq , Syria and Lebanon , and of course for Israel.
The battlefield is approaching
As the UN special envoy to Iraq , the German Martin Connects summer oriented Security Council, he said, " The battlefields are converging ... Iraq is the fault line between the Shiite and Sunni Muslim world , and of course , everything that happens in Syria have a setback in Iraq. "
It is this that can lead to Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority in the western part of the country will merge with Syria's Sunni Muslim majority . Previously the border between Syria and Iraq porous because of tribalism and smuggling.
According to Wright can be created a de facto or formal states as Sunni and Shia Stan Stan . The choice of name is debatable . The word standard is not Arabic, but Indo - Persian . The Arabs will hardly adopt such names , but the idea of ​​a new Middle East based on tribes, ethnicity and religion are fascinating.
The Kurdish minority in Syria , Turkey , Iraq and Iran have for many years had different views on many things , but when the borders between Syria and Iraq, was opened in August this year , 50,000 Syrian Kurds fled to Iraq.
Later in the autumn, the Kurds from all four countries come together to form a comprehensive conference. The President of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan , Masoud Barzani , said he expects 600 representatives from a total of 40 parties, will discuss the future of the Kurds .
Tripoli and Cyrenaica Tana
In the new map as the American peace researcher has been published in The New York Times , shows that she , Robin Wright is a woman, envisions a Libya split into three parts because of tribal and regional affiliations . Tripoli Tana in the northwest, Fezzan in the south and east Cyrenaica , a region that was Italian colony until 1934.
The revolt in Libya was partly directed against dictator Muammar al - Qadhafi , but it also reflected Benghazis desire to free themselves from the dominant Tripoli.
Tripolitanerne so most towards the western Islamic world , while kyrenaikerne felt closer to Muslims in the east. In addition, the capital took most of the oil revenues , although most of it was produced in the eastern part of Libya.
Today Syria and Iraq can be shared. Alawitter and Druze will manage the coastal strip along the Mediterranean. Kurds will form a Kurdistan on both sides of the current limit. What happens to the Kurds in Iraq and Iran , the researcher no answer. The new state Shia Stan takes over for today's southern Iraq , and Sunni Stan made ​​up of both Syria and Iraq's Sunni -dominated regions.
Saudi Arabia was divided in five countries. The central part called Wright, Wahabistan , by a Muslim sect formed by Ibn Abd al - Wahhab in the 1700s . The sect is known for strict interpretation of the Koran. Coast west of Wahabistan divided into three , Northern Arabia , Western Arabia and South Arabia , while most oil-rich area at the very north called Eastern Arabia. Here live the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, and here 's the richest oil sources .
Yemen , according to researcher sketch peace be divided into two, a North Yemen and South Yemen , as the country was before the merger in 1990. Is it so can the current five countries to be 14
Breach revealed
One hundred years after the British adventurer and diplomat Sir March Sykes and his French consul colleague in Beirut, Georges Picot in 1915 looked at the map and split the Ottoman land cake , it is perhaps worth remembering what happened behind the scenes on, then.
Having agreed the two diplomats traveled to Petrograd to consult the Russian Tsar's advisers. And the following year, while the First World War , the so-called Sykes - Picot Agreement was signed.
The British had broken their previous promises to the Arabs for freedom and independence if they revolted against the Turks . The government in London considered rather not want anyone to discover the violation so fast.
When the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia , the secret agreement revealed in November 1917. It had neither the British or French foreseen.
One of the many questions posed in October 2013 : Will the citizens of the Arab world 's most identify with their nation , their tribe , their communities or their ethnicity ? The extent urgent foreign powers in order to achieve a new and divided the Middle East, without strong states that cements the balance of power ?
I find today no better answer than Nobel Prize winner Anatole Frances expression: "No one can see into the future , not even those who create it. "
NRK is stat own tv channel in Norway
Midtøsten kan bli delt på nytt - Nyheter, tv og radio fra hele verden - NRK.no
Now draw military planners new boundaries and a new Middle East. The strategic rules will change dramatically .
The result may be that what today are five countries , Iraq , Yemen , Libya , Saudi Arabia and Syria , can end up being 14 different nations.
Among the names that can be typed on the world map , are religiously -based names like Stan Sunni , Shia and Stan Wahhabistan , or historical names such as Tripoli and Cyrenaica Tana .
Not all new ideas
The new scenarios are not entirely new , but echoes of the " Zionist Plan for the Middle East ", published in Hebrew in the journal Kivunim , winter 1982.
It stated: "Any internal Arab confrontation will assist us in the short term and will reduce the road to a solution of Iraq , in the area based on religion , as in Syria and Lebanon ... So three (or more) states will be; around the three major cities of Basra , Baghdad and Mosul . The Shiite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. " Moreover it was said :" The entire Arabian peninsula is a natural candidate for dissolution due to internal and external pressure , " and" a breakdown of Egypt in clear and distinct regions is a target for Israel. "
The man behind the plan was Oded Yinon , an Israeli with some connection to the Foreign Ministry in West Jerusalem . The analysis , published in the time shift " for Judaism and Zionism ," received little mention , but today , the author might smile with glee that the trend is moving in the direction he foresaw
New frontiers , new states
The other pressure The New York Times a map of a future Middle East, based on a speculative article by former foreign correspondent Robin Wright, now a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace .
Wright argues that developments in Syria creates a watershed in the Middle East . The Arab Spring was the beginning of a new trend . Here the powers that lay dormant between rival religious groups , tribes and ethnic background, wild. The current division of the Middle East states were created by European colonizers and defended the Arab autocrats .
Because Syria is a strategic hub for the region , the Civil War's outcome have serious consequences for the entire region , says Wright. The country is a patchwork of religious and ethnic groups , but the stitching is done with thread.
Before Hafez al - Assad came to power in a bloodless coup in 1970 , there had been more than half a dozen similar power shifts during the twenty preceding years . Air Force General was seated as president until his death thirty years later, in 2000.
When his son , Bashar al - Assad , took over the seemingly stable countries , based on the ruthless control of the population using a whole range of security services , there was little evidence Revolution .
And when the uprising began and the country exploded , there were many who expected that people power would topple the president. They hoped for a blueprint of what had happened in Egypt , Libya and Tunisia. It did not work .
After 30 months of civil war sitting Bashar al - Assad is still in power. But at least 120 000 people have been killed and two million have fled their homes , inside and outside Syria.
Syria divided into three
The civil war has divided Syria into three highlighted regions, each with its own characteristics. One narrow state-controlled corridor from the south, through Damascus, Homs and Hama to the northern Mediterranean coast.
In the north, it created a little Kurdistan has been autonomous since last year. The largest acreage holder rebels. The village is mostly Sunni Muslim Syrians.
And it is this that has tracked Robin Wright to speculate about the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula's future.
In Syria in neighboring Iraq is not yet done a complete breakdown. The reason is foreign pressure, fear of being left alone and loyalty paid with Iraqi oil money. But the horror of the civil war in Syria should take Iraq down in quicksand, is real.
Ariel Sharon (tr) together with Israel's then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Already in 1982 would change the Sharon Middle East-carded.
Israel's strategic interests
Sharon was in line with Yinon who suggested that the Arab states would be destroyed from within by utilizing internal religious and ethnic tensions . " Lebanon should be dissolved and to three provinces and serve as a precursor for the entire Arab world including Egypt , Syria , Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula . "
In addition Sharon would extend Israel's " strategic and security interests" . These would include " Turkey , Iran and Pakistan , and regions such as the Persian Gulf and Africa , especially in countries in North and Central Africa . "
The once- not Sharon not that Lebanon was a honey trap, he just smelled the honey . The current Israeli Prime Minister , Benjamin Netanyahu , has abandoned plans to change the map by sending forces into the ground in neighboring countries.
Instead he concentrates on influencing the U.S. to achieve regime change in Iran , with the consequences that will provide for Iraq , Syria and Lebanon , and of course for Israel.
The battlefield is approaching
As the UN special envoy to Iraq , the German Martin Connects summer oriented Security Council, he said, " The battlefields are converging ... Iraq is the fault line between the Shiite and Sunni Muslim world , and of course , everything that happens in Syria have a setback in Iraq. "
It is this that can lead to Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority in the western part of the country will merge with Syria's Sunni Muslim majority . Previously the border between Syria and Iraq porous because of tribalism and smuggling.
According to Wright can be created a de facto or formal states as Sunni and Shia Stan Stan . The choice of name is debatable . The word standard is not Arabic, but Indo - Persian . The Arabs will hardly adopt such names , but the idea of ​​a new Middle East based on tribes, ethnicity and religion are fascinating.
The Kurdish minority in Syria , Turkey , Iraq and Iran have for many years had different views on many things , but when the borders between Syria and Iraq, was opened in August this year , 50,000 Syrian Kurds fled to Iraq.
Later in the autumn, the Kurds from all four countries come together to form a comprehensive conference. The President of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan , Masoud Barzani , said he expects 600 representatives from a total of 40 parties, will discuss the future of the Kurds .
Tripoli and Cyrenaica Tana
In the new map as the American peace researcher has been published in The New York Times , shows that she , Robin Wright is a woman, envisions a Libya split into three parts because of tribal and regional affiliations . Tripoli Tana in the northwest, Fezzan in the south and east Cyrenaica , a region that was Italian colony until 1934.
The revolt in Libya was partly directed against dictator Muammar al - Qadhafi , but it also reflected Benghazis desire to free themselves from the dominant Tripoli.
Tripolitanerne so most towards the western Islamic world , while kyrenaikerne felt closer to Muslims in the east. In addition, the capital took most of the oil revenues , although most of it was produced in the eastern part of Libya.
Today Syria and Iraq can be shared. Alawitter and Druze will manage the coastal strip along the Mediterranean. Kurds will form a Kurdistan on both sides of the current limit. What happens to the Kurds in Iraq and Iran , the researcher no answer. The new state Shia Stan takes over for today's southern Iraq , and Sunni Stan made ​​up of both Syria and Iraq's Sunni -dominated regions.
Saudi Arabia was divided in five countries. The central part called Wright, Wahabistan , by a Muslim sect formed by Ibn Abd al - Wahhab in the 1700s . The sect is known for strict interpretation of the Koran. Coast west of Wahabistan divided into three , Northern Arabia , Western Arabia and South Arabia , while most oil-rich area at the very north called Eastern Arabia. Here live the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, and here 's the richest oil sources .
Yemen , according to researcher sketch peace be divided into two, a North Yemen and South Yemen , as the country was before the merger in 1990. Is it so can the current five countries to be 14
Breach revealed
One hundred years after the British adventurer and diplomat Sir March Sykes and his French consul colleague in Beirut, Georges Picot in 1915 looked at the map and split the Ottoman land cake , it is perhaps worth remembering what happened behind the scenes on, then.
Having agreed the two diplomats traveled to Petrograd to consult the Russian Tsar's advisers. And the following year, while the First World War , the so-called Sykes - Picot Agreement was signed.
The British had broken their previous promises to the Arabs for freedom and independence if they revolted against the Turks . The government in London considered rather not want anyone to discover the violation so fast.
When the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia , the secret agreement revealed in November 1917. It had neither the British or French foreseen.
One of the many questions posed in October 2013 : Will the citizens of the Arab world 's most identify with their nation , their tribe , their communities or their ethnicity ? The extent urgent foreign powers in order to achieve a new and divided the Middle East, without strong states that cements the balance of power ?
I find today no better answer than Nobel Prize winner Anatole Frances expression: "No one can see into the future , not even those who create it. "
NRK is stat own tv channel in Norway
Midtøsten kan bli delt på nytt - Nyheter, tv og radio fra hele verden - NRK.no
