Is War in the South China Sea Inevitable?

[beijingwalker]

Is War in the South China Sea Inevitable?
by John Daly
Monday, 12 December 2011 14:07

If China is not actually preparing for conflict in the South China Sea over disputed archipelagos and islets and their rich offshore resources, from fish to hydrocarbons, then consider the comments made on 6 December by Chinese President Hu Jintao to the Central Military Commission, as reported by Xinhua. Hu said that China's navy should "make extended preparations for warfare," adding that the navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernization in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security. Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defense and military building."

Is Beijing’s big nautical stick about to be deployed against other Southeast Asian nations contesting China’s South Sea sovereignty claims?

At issue are the Spratly islands’ 750 islands, islets, atolls and cays, which China, along with the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, are claimed by all. While there are no native Spratly islanders, about 45 archipelago’s islands are now occupied by Vietnamese, Chinese, Taiwanese, Malaysian and Filipino forces, hardly a recipe for concord.

Whatever China’s intentions, what is beyond doubt is the exponential growth of the Chinese navy, which can now field 66 submarines, an undersea arsenal the Chinese government is intending to increase to 78 by 2020 as planned, putting it roughly equivalent to the U.S. Navy's submarine forces in numbers, if not in quality. Furthermore, China's defense budget is growing nearly 10 percent annually and China's first aircraft carrier, a renovated Soviet vessel, has begun its second set of sea trials from its Yellow Sea port in Dalian in northeastern China. The 990-foot-long former Soviet Kuznetsov-class carrier, originally called the Varyag and now apparently renamed the Shi Lang, was completely overhauled and is currently based in China’s northeast Dalian port. It is perhaps not coincidental that "Shi Lang" was a famous 17th century Chinese admiral who conquered Taiwan.

China is applying some not so subtle gunboat diplomacy to advertise its new maritime capabilities. Last month a delegation composed of 42 military attaches from 37 countries including the United States, Canada, Britain and Germany make a two-day-long goodwill visit to the North China Sea Fleet of the Navy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, visiting a ship-borne aircraft regiment of the aviation force under the North China Sea Fleet.

Their Chinese hosts demonstrated a number of capabilities, including platform-based flying and overland rescue. Lest the attaches be in any doubt about the Chinese Navy’s new capabilities, they also visited the Shenyang guided-missile destroyer.

But at least one contestant in the South China Sea is rising to the challenge. Later this month the Philippine Navy will deploy its biggest and most modern warship, the BRP Gregorio Del Pilar, to the South China Sea, which Manila labels the West Philippine Sea.

Regional diplomats are still trying to defuse the situation. Indonesia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Marty Natalegawa said that the Bali Concord III, signed last month, could serve as a guide for East Asian countries in dealing with the dynamic situation in the South China Sea, commenting, “We are aware of the dynamic situation in the South China Sea. However, we must remember that now we have the Bali Concord III that was signed by the heads of state/government during the East Asia Summit last November 19.”

Washington’s take on the squabble? Pentagon spokesman George Little said, "They (China) have a right to develop military capabilities and to plan, just as we do."

Translation for Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bandar Seri Begawan – you’re on your own. It’s worth remembering that the People’s Republic of China fought two brief but savage border wars with both India (1962) and Vietnam (1979.)

For those with a sense of history, today is the 70th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which occurred prior to a declaration of war. For those with a greater sense of history, Dalian is close to the Chinese port of Lushunkou. Previously known as Port Arthur, it was the major base of the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet and attacked on 8 February 1904 by the Imperial Japanese Navy.

Without a formal declaration of war.

 

[Determined Tiger]

China is scared, has been defamed all days long but react none!

The result of being too nice and humble, which is really a stupid strategy!

Where is your furious attitude as you have done to your people during the Culture Revolution?

China is really need a second Mao or Deng!

Oh wait, you don't care why I should care!

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

I think so there was thread on this article already.

 

[T90TankGuy]

i guess time will tell. circumstances keep changing all the time . who knows.?

 

[beijingwalker]

we should work with Taiwan to defend our islands together,I dont think any island occupied by Taiwan as foreign occupation.mainland China and Taiwan are 2 major naval forces operating in South China Sea.

China has huge naval advantage to others in S. China Sea
2011-12-06
According to Indonesian Center of Democracy, Diplomacy and Defense executive director Teuku Rezasyah, Malaysia has two battleships, the Philippines one, China 27 and Taiwan 26 operating in the South China Sea.

He said Vietnam had several escort vessels operating in the area, while no data was available for Brunei’s operations there.

“China’s 27 naval vessels do not even include the aircraft carrier and submarines [it operates in the South China Sea],” he told The Jakarta Post recently.

He said a Type 093 Shang class nuclear-powered attack submarine was observed at the pier under construction.

Significant construction is still underway at the Yalong Bay Naval Base on Hainan Island, including a fourth submarine pier at the southern section of the base, increased camouflage over the submarine pen and a bunkered rail line on the eastern side of the basin peninsula, he said.

“China has successfully massively reclaimed shores on Nam Yit Island and Southwest Cay Island, which borders the Philippines. China has made those hubs for its aircraft carriers based on satellite imagery,”
Rezasyah said.

He said that China was likely preparing for a worst-case scenario, with Nam Yit Island able to support three aircraft carriers.

 

[beijingwalker]

China Says Taiwan Shares Responsibility to Defend Spratlys Claim

A Chinese official dealing with Taiwan relations has said the two governments have a common responsibility to defend Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Yang Yi, a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a news conference in Beijing Wednesday that Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are obliged to defend Chinese sovereignty in the strategic waterway.

China and Taiwan have been bitter rivals for decades, with both claiming sovereignty over all of China. But relations have improved in recent years.

 

[Obambam]

China is scared, has been defamed all days long but react none!

The result of being too nice and humble, which is really a stupid strategy!

Where is your furious attitude as you have done to your people during the Culture Revolution?

China is really need a second Mao or Deng!

Oh wait, you don't care why I should care!

Attitudes and policies changes over time my friend. As your nation prospers, living condition betters and country going through modernization, we have to consider every aspect and not be irrational resulting in irresponsible actions. Having said that, there is and will always be a bottom line (applies to all countries and people), unless it gets anywhere near that bottom line, it is unlikely that we will be provoked into taking any drastic forms of military action. Afterall, we have been relatively peaceful for the last 30 years. We have been through a timely period without war. What is important now isn't war, but cooperation with our neighbours in the surrounding region. Heck even the Japanese and the Koreans are working closely with us. Vietnamese will be no different. Having said that, they will suffer the same fate as the Paracel incident if they try to do anything silly in the SCS with their meager naval capacity. They are merely testing the waters at the moment but looking at everything they have got naval wise, they are severely outmatched on both numbers and on technology

 

[Viva_Viet]

Attitudes and policies changes over time my friend. As your nation prospers, living condition betters and country going through modernization, we have to consider every aspect and not be irrational resulting in irresponsible actions. Having said that, there is and will always be a bottom line (applies to all countries and people), unless it gets anywhere near that bottom line, it is unlikely that we will be provoked into taking any drastic forms of military action. Afterall, we have been relatively peaceful for the last 30 years. We have been through a timely period without war. What is important now isn't war, but cooperation with our neighbours in the surrounding region. Heck even the Japanese and the Koreans are working closely with us. Vietnamese will be no different. Having said that, they will suffer the same fate as the Paracel incident if they try to do anything silly in the SCS with their meager naval capacity. They are merely testing the waters at the moment but looking at everything they have got naval wise, they are severely outmatched on both numbers and on technology

SO you'ed better talk like that to your rear admiral to boost his morale up

Opinion: 6 636 can block the Straits of Malacca

Yin Zhuote some commentators:
Yes, because the six submarines us that if a division-level formations are, for example, by the Russian establishment, the general conventional submarines 12 is a detachment, probably half a detachment of.
Shui Junyi: half a detachment of.

Yin Cho: It’s about how strong blocking ability? If six submarines are able to war, then probably all of the Malacca Strait can block up front, if a product shaped ambush position, then it is probably obscured in the 400-600 km wide area involved, which basically put the Malacca Strait give sealing, and training in Russia and Vietnam, it’s a very important tactical learning is near the Strait of Malacca, where it has the hydrological data, where the exercise is to set up ambush positions, and the merchant ships of the past ambushes.
............
Yin Zhuo: the coverage of war is certainly able to cover the South China Sea, because of its relatively strong momentum underwater machine it is not AIP system, has a 636 is RM, which has a modification is AIP system, but it is the buying is not, there is no combat capability but also very strong.
about if the increase in overseas oil, then a diesel together with underwater time is about 45 days 45 days all cover the entire South China Sea , and it is six boats, basically half of the sail, three boats are also able to cover the basic, so it should be said that the combat capability of the South China Sea is a great threat.

Military experts say the military buildup in Vietnam will lead the South China Sea countries to step up military procurement tide « Military of China, force comment.

 

[ChinaToday]

we should work with Taiwan to defend our islands together,I dont think any island occupied by Taiwan as foreign occupation.mainland China and Taiwan are 2 major naval forces operating in South China Sea.

Dont worry friend taiwan and china may have their differences, but when defending mother land we will be united.

---------- Post added at 05:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:05 PM ----------

China is scared, has been defamed all days long but react none!

The result of being too nice and humble, which is really a stupid strategy!

Where is your furious attitude as you have done to your people during the Culture Revolution?

China is really need a second Mao or Deng!

Oh wait, you don't care why I should care!

Dont worry mate, we just wait for a good excuse to finish off these irritants

 

[beijingwalker]

haha,China do have many crazy military experts,you Vietnma wants to block the Straits of Malacca,haha,just try .if you can block Malacca,then China can block the Pacific.

 

[HongWu]

War is inevitable now. Vietnam is 100% determined to explore for oil right next to Paracel Islands (blocks 127, 128). india is 100% determined to help Vietnam explored for oil. This is Vietnam's plan to start a military conflict and grab the Paracel Islands.

China has no choice but to defend the Paracel Islands. We will go to war as early as mid-2013 (within 1.5 years). PLAN will announce exercises in the waters Vietnam and india are exploring for oil and if they refuse to comply we will "accidentally" sink their ships with our missiles.

Then it will be a two front war: india will make aggressive moves against China along the Tibetan border and China will counter with Pakistan's help. Vietnam will launch air and naval attacks against Paracel Islands, Hainan Islands and the border with Guangxi and Guangdong. USA will probably also try to blockade China's oil and gas shipments through Malacca Straits.

Very likely, this conflict will end with PLA troops entering Hanoi and Ho Chi Min, setting up a puppet government for Vietnam. China will need to defeat Vietnam completely within 6 months before we run of oil reserves. Once we occupy all of Vietnam, we can easily direct production of oil in South China Sea to fill up our strategic reserves again.

When we fill up our strategic reserves of oil, then we can move on to our next target -- Philippines, india, Japan or whoever.

 

[ChinaToday]

China leader in waiting wont be as nice as the current one, he will not take bs from any one.

 

[beijingwalker]

Vietnam is the weakest navy wise among all the claimants.

 

[Splurgenxs]

THe more there are people talking about a certain war ...the less are the chance of it actually happening, and vice verca.
One doesn't talk of war when one wants it.

 

[Viva_Viet]

haha,China do have many crazy military experts,you Vietnma wants to block the Straits of Malacca,haha,just try .if you can block Malacca,then China can block the Pacific.

Mr. Yin Zhuo is your rear admiral, dude