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Is the US Yielding Spaceflight Leadership to China? (Op-Ed)

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Leroy Chiao is a former NASA astronaut and commander of the International Space Station. During his 15-year flying career, he performed six spacewalks. Chiao is the special adviser for human spaceflight to the Space Foundation, and he holds appointments at Baylor College of Medicine and Rice University. Chiao contributed this Op-Ed to SPACE.com's Expert Voices: Op-Ed and Insights.

Slow and steady wins the race, the old adage goes, and China's human spaceflight program is on exactly that track. Ten years ago today (Oct. 15), China became only the third nation to launch astronauts into space. Since then, China has launched only five crewed space missions, but each one accomplished specific objectives to further the nation's capabilities.

Infrastructure and new vehicle developments have helped China make steady progress. A new launch facility on Hainan Island will be ready for operations by the end of next year, in time for the first launches of the new Long March 5 family of rockets. [China's Giant Leap into Space, 2003-2013 (Video)]

China has plans for a second crew-tended space laboratory in 2015, and will launch the core module of a Mir-class space station in 2018, with orbital construction of the station slated to be completed by 2020. China is also developing a cargo version of the Shenzhou spacecraft to support the space station. In short, China is steadily expanding its space program.

Just a few years ago, a small delegation from the Astronaut Center of China (ACC) toured the NASA Johnson Space Center. The specialists, including the ACC director, were astonished by what they saw. In the Mission Control Center (MCC), they watched a space shuttle crew performing spacewalk repair work on the Hubble Space Telescope, as it was happening. Minutes later, they were in another control room, watching real-time operations aboard the International Space Station (ISS). NASA was at its best, making it all look easy.

Today, things are different. The space shuttle fleet was retired more than two years ago, leaving NASA and other space agencies to rely solely on Russian assets for transportation of astronauts to and from the ISS. Today, the reality is that there is insufficient budget to accomplish even a modest exploration program beyond the ISS. Scores of key specialists are no longer at the agency or its contractors. The ISS is scheduled for operations through 2020, but there is much uncertainty on whether or not its life will be extended beyond that year.

Don't get me wrong, American ingenuity and can-do spirit still exists in the space program. Commercial efforts are racking up some impressive gains. Over the last year, two commercial space companies have successfully developed and flown new rockets and cargo spacecraft to the ISS. There are also continuing efforts to build commercial spacecraft to carry astronauts to and from ISS. But, if there will be no ISS in the future, what will we do with these vehicles? [The Top 10 Private Spaceships]

Last month, I was in Beijing attending the 64th International Astronautical Congress. The Chinese are continuing their rise. They were more open

than ever before about their plans and their nearly complete launch facility on Hainan Island, with the first Long March 5 rockets anticipated to launch in early 2015. The Chinese space station first-element launch is planned for 2018, with assembly complete in 2020.

China is inviting international partners to work with them on their space station. They want international research, and they want to fly international astronauts. Many of the United States' ISS partners (at least eight space agencies have talked to the Chinese about partnering and cooperation) are finding a more attractive alternative with China, or at least hedging their bets. Who can blame them? Working with China would be much less expensive than continuing with ISS.

This sets up the perfect baton pass. America, already on the decline after the retirement of the space shuttle (now only Russia and China can launch astronauts into space), will on the way down hand over the leadership position of human spaceflight to the Chinese.

What can Americans do to stop this? Invite China to the table. America can, and should, lead the international coalition to explore space, both in low-Earth orbit and beyond. China publicly asked to join the ISS program in 2003, only to be rebuffed by the United States. Over the years, they have made repeated calls for joining NASA and the International partners. The Russians, Europeans and even the Canadians have called for bringing China into the partnership. There are political and technical reasons that having China as a partner could be a win-win-win for all. However, certain members of the U.S. Congress are dedicated to keeping China out, dooming the United States to continue its decline in human spaceflight.

The problem is, it may already be too late. China has a clear path and is moving forward. They have the perfect setup to take over the lead, enabled and propelled by the actions of the Congress. Why would they want to work with the U.S. now?

Is the U.S. Passing the Spaceflight Baton to China? | Space Race | Space.com
 
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Watch this space - China in ascendant while US declines


Mark Williamson witnesses China’s upward trajectory in space technology at the 64th International Astronautical Congress in Beijing.

Space exploration has always had a fairly high-profile political element, from the Cold War days of the ‘space race’ to the cross-border collaboration that brought about the International Space Station, placing Russia and America essentially on the same team. Today, with US technology export constraints banning, among other things, the launch of US-made components on Chinese rockets, it is easy to characterise China as the new adversary. But the world has changed since America raced against the erstwhile Soviet Union to put a man on the Moon.Arguably, the annual meeting of minds that is the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) shows this better than most. This year’s conference and accompanying trade exhibition - held in Beijing from 23-27 September - put China and its developments in space technology centre-stage for the more than 3,300 delegates from 74 countries in attendance.

Speaking at the opening ceremony, Li Yuanchao, vice-president of the People’s Republic of China, called for peace and cooperation in the exploration and exploitation of space. With clear references to the text of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, he proclaimed that “all countries have an equal right to share resources in space” and that “China is willing to share experience with all countries...for the benefit of all mankind”. And in case anyone doubted that assertion, Li pointed out that China had already signed no less than 71 cooperation agreements with 26 countries.

Indeed, few in the audience would harbour any doubt that China has much to share. In the context of the “many challenges” faced by the world, added Li, “China is ready to join the international community”.

At a Heads of Agency plenary, Nasa administrator Charles Bolden faced the question of when we could expect to see some form of cooperation between China and the US and delivered the customary political deflection, replying: “Partnership requires patience.” Bolden did, however, add that Nasa’s proposed asteroid deflection mission of 2025 (which may or may not actually happen) would be “open to cooperation”.

Speaking from the same platform, the head of the China National Space Administration, Ma Xingrui, said that although China was not yet party to the multinational effort, the International Space Exploration Coordination Group, that could change. “I don’t see any problem if the organisation is willing to invite us,” he confirmed.

No-one expects policies to be decided at such open events, but it is interesting to hear the two space powers apparently speaking the same language. The acceptance of a new space power is as much about the newcomer proving itself as it is about national space policy.

As the European Space Agency knows only too well, it can take decades to prove to Nasa that a non-American technology can be trusted, and it is often only under the duress of acute financial constraints that foreign contributions are accepted.

However, the situation with China is quite different from the political competition of the 1960s between America and the Soviet Union, because while America is on a descending path, China is in the ascendant. The only question is when the curves will cross.

In the newsworthy field of manned spaceflight, China has been active since 2003, when it became only the third nation to deliver a man into space with home-grown technology. Since then, it has launched missions to prove docking, spacewalking and general survival techniques in a carefully considered, step-by-step approach towards its publicised aim of landing a Chinese citizen on the Moon, perhaps as soon as 2025.

China has begun with unmanned missions: namely, the Chang’e 1 and 2 orbiters of 2007 and 2010 and the Chang’e 3 lander expected later this year. The latter will carry an automated rover to explore the immediate vicinity of the landing area. Current plans show Chang’e 4 as a backup and Chang’e 5 as a pre-2020 sample return mission.

China is often criticised for not being specific about mission dates, but this is probably because the nation’s space programme is led more by engineering conservatism than media-savvy politicking. The Western alternative of announcing dates, and then delays or cancellations, is no better. That said, Xu Dazhe, the chairman of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, gave the launch date of Chang’e 3 as 13 December, arguably another example of increasing transparency.

Congress visitors had only the Beijing traffic to criticise during a tour of the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology plant: the stages of the Long March rocket that will launch Chang’e 3 were displayed in one of three large assembly halls.

Xu was clearly proud of the Long March rocket, which has evolved through several variants since the 1970s. “It has conducted 181 flights at a 95.58 per cent success rate,” he said. A total of 232 satellites had been launched, 105 of which are still operational. Chinese satellites already serve 80 per cent of the world’s population, Xu said, and cover 58 per cent of the land area.

In the commercial satellite arena, China has developed its Dong Fang Hong (‘East is Red’) communications satellite platform to the point where its technology is equal to the West’s, and has proved this by selling a number of satellites to foreign buyers. Meanwhile, its domestic imaging satellites are gaining fast on Western capabilities, as shown by its DF-2 satellite, due to launch in December, with its 80cm monochrome ground resolution.

As indicated by the dozens of Chinese papers across multiple parallel IAC sessions and a good supply of documentation at the accompanying exhibition, China is keen to show its capabilities and understanding of anything from spacecraft solar arrays to onboard computers. Quoting President Xi Jinping, Xu confirmed that China is “developing its space industry to build a space power”. Whether you believe in cooperation or competition, this is no time for Western complacency.

Watch this space - China in ascendant while US declines - E & T Magazine
 
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Even though we are progressing very well we have to admit the NASA is several decades ahead of us. Let's not be deluded by our own success leading us into complacency and arrogance

the articles are written as part of the NASA fund drives
 
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China certainly has a much longer history of astronomy than America has, and traces back to the star maps of the neolithic.

Chinese star maps - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_astronomy

Currently, China operates the most advanced Earth based astronomical telescope.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAMOST

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8alz9y9A2Q

If would be difficult to judge whether America can continue to dominate in astronomical exploration towards the end of this year when China puts mankind's very first extraterrestrial based astronomical telescope in operation.

Chang'e 3 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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NASA has the hubble telescope, curiosity successfully landed on mars doing explorations, some of the most powerful rockets like the delta, atlas families, nasa's astronauts landed on the moon and travelled back to earth many times through its appollo program in the 60-70s, it has performed the unethered spacewalk in 1984, it spacecraft can carry 6 persons in 1983, it performed 3-person spacewalk in 1992, voyager 1 has set the record for the furthest space flight leaving the solar system in September.

Yeah NASA is way ahead and in a league of its own!
 
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NASA has the hubble telescope, curiosity successfully landed on mars doing explorations, some of the most powerful rockets like the delta, atlas families, nasa's astronauts landed on the moon and travelled back to earth many times through its appollo program in the 60-70s, it has performed the unethered spacewalk in 1984, it spacecraft can carry 6 persons in 1983, it performed 3-person spacewalk in 1992, voyager 1 has set the record for the furthest space flight leaving the solar system in September.

Yeah NASA is way ahead and in a league of its own!

True, but America's golden age from the early 1960s to the mid 1980s is over. America has made very little progress since then. Curiosity landed on Mars in 2012, but so did Viking in 1976. Hubble's successor James Webb is delayed for many years. In many instances, China has already surpassed America in astronomy. For instance, Chang'e 2 has orbited the Moon before reaching L2 and then flying by Toutatis. Such a feat has never been accomplished by another country. Voyager was launched in 1977 and barely made it out of the helio sheath after so long. Voyager would need tens of thousands of years just to reach the nearest star system. This is unacceptable for astronomy. America must await its renaissance just as China had its renaissance in the mid 1800s after been stagnant since its golden age from 400 BC to 1450 AD.
 
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China certainly has a much longer history of astronomy than America has, and traces back to the star maps of the neolithic.

Chinese star maps - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Chinese astronomy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Currently, China operates the most advanced Earth based astronomical telescope.

LAMOST - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

LAMOST - World's most advanced telescope - 05 Jun 09 - YouTube

If would be difficult to judge whether America can continue to dominate in astronomical exploration towards the end of this year when China puts mankind's very first extraterrestrial based astronomical telescope in operation.

Chang'e 3 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

America only came into existence a few centuries ago.

True, but America's golden age from the early 1960s to the mid 1980s is over. America has made very little progress since then. Curiosity landed on Mars in 2012, but so did Viking in 1976. Hubble's successor James Webb is delayed for many years. In many instances, China has already surpassed America in astronomy. For instance, Chang'e 2 has orbited the Moon before reaching L2 and then flying by Toutatis. Such a feat has never been accomplished by another country. Voyager was launched in 1977 and barely made it out of the helio sheath after so long. Voyager would need tens of thousands of years just to reach the nearest star system. This is unacceptable for astronomy. America must await its renaissance just as China had its renaissance in the mid 1800s after been stagnant since its golden age from 400 BC to 1450 AD.

The technology on the current mars program vs the programs in 1970s is worlds apart. It seems you judge a space program by number of launches in which case Russia is the winner.
 
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America only came into existence a few centuries ago.

Actually, American history began around 12,000 BC when people first settled America. Whether recent American history is due to Europeans is irrelevant. Chinese settled China around 10,000 BC, bringing neolithic culture with them. In this regard, American history is older than Chinese history.

The technology on the current mars program vs the programs in 1970s is worlds apart. It seem1s you judge a space program by number of launches in which case Russia is the winner.

The only new technology Curiosity has over Viking is a laser.

Dr. Evil "a Laser" - YouTube
 
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In my humble opinion, United States is just way way ahead of China in the space program and also for any other country for that matter. I don't think the rest of the world is even enthusiastic about space exploration as the American are.

It will easily take at least two decades for China to catch up to the United States unless China invents some sort of new rocket technology which gives it the ability to carry out around a hundred launches a year with little effort.
 
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In my humble opinion, United States is just way way ahead of China in the space program and also for any other country for that matter. I don't think the rest of the world is even enthusiastic about space exploration as the American are.

It will easily take at least two decades for China to catch up to the United States unless China invents some sort of new rocket technology which gives it the ability to carry out around a hundred launches a year with little effort.

What astronomy technology does America have that China does not have? :blink:
 
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In my humble opinion, United States is just way way ahead of China in the space program and also for any other country for that matter. I don't think the rest of the world is even enthusiastic about space exploration as the American are.

It will easily take at least two decades for China to catch up to the United States unless China invents some sort of new rocket technology which gives it the ability to carry out around a hundred launches a year with little effort.

well you have been brainwashed by western media to look down on china, but it doesn't matter we know what we are capable of and we will continue to surprise the western world by china overtakes usa this and that.
 
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In my humble opinion, United States is just way way ahead of China in the space program and also for any other country for that matter. I don't think the rest of the world is even enthusiastic about space exploration as the American are.

It will easily take at least two decades for China to catch up to the United States unless China invents some sort of new rocket technology which gives it the ability to carry out around a hundred launches a year with little effort.

China sees itself as a second-tier space power along with the EU and Japan. US and Russia belong to the first tier. Russian space program has been stagnant and failing for quite some years, though.
 
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China sees itself as a second-tier space power along with the EU and Japan. US and Russia belong to the first tier. Russian space program has been stagnant and failing for quite some years, though.

The EU is second tier? :blink: Name me 1 American scientist / inventor that can match a European counterpart.
 
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People...Just let the Chinese have their fantasies. Leave this thread to the Chinese.
 
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