@Counter-Errorist @masterchief_mirza @N.Siddiqui @Khanivore @Mentee @StormBreaker @CrazyZ @Ace of Spades @PakSword @Blacklight @newb3e @SIPRA @DESERT FIGHTER @Cygnus Black @Cashew @Behram Khilji @jaibi @Slav Defence @HRK @RescueRanger
Numbers. Numbers. Numbers.
Frankly, it is immaterial what IMF says about the growth rates of
IndianEconomy. Or WB or ABD.
All of the
WashingtonConcensus Instruements of Policy Implementation .... these Institutions or better still
PolicyInstruements don't do this for the sake of emperical honesty but to make sure that the
DollarSystem remains in tact...which is vital for the
CombinedWest. Logically. And why not!
The West created the modern world and has been dominating it totally for
TWO centuries at least... so why should they let go of their prime position in the
Pyramid of Global Hierachy? No one will do so voluntarily...
FACT!
With fall of the Soviets the leverage that India could enjoy with the CombinedWest also went down...now it could not play hard to get! As it did through
Non-Aligned Movement ... gaining benefits from both the US led
CombinedWest and the Soviets... herein was also
ChinaFactor.
With Nixon's 'opening up' of China....
China had agreed to become part of the DollarSystem and the socalled
Globalisation started. Enough on this one to avoid too much detail for fear of distraction from the main theme.
What is Globalisation?
Is it mere relocation of factories to developing world?
CheapLabour?
The QuintEssence of Globalisation was/is Financialisation of Everything!
Everything else just was
foundational requirement to enlarge the
DollarSystem to entire globe....
And with PolicyInstruements like IMF, WB, ADB etc.... this could shape the
Global Financial Architecture ... properly monitored by
BIS. Once again why not!
All Systems seeks to preserve/advance/sustain themselves at all costs.... so why not
DollarSystem. A detached understanding is imperative...otherwise, we run from pole to pillar... with impotent anguish!
Be it helicopter money or QEs ...it all could be done because there was an
EmergingMarket landscape to
buy-out Inflation just to remain in DollarSystem.... this should sufice for fundamental understanding as to why the
US has been so successful to keep the Dollar strong while printing it with total abandon....
Any other state would have beomce like Zimbawae long before .... Take Pakistan as example!
But there were some problems also with
FinancialisingEverything.... as we saw in the collapse of LehmanBrothers or other lenders.... because
Driviates in the Hands of Masters of the Universe became never ending rallies... while
global GDP remained for what its a mere $86Trillion ... while
DeriviateMarketSize is $1200Trillion....
So the WorldGDP needs to grow at any cost or the Biggest Bubble in history will go boom....taking with it the
DollarSystem.
China, GCC, JP, SK and other EmergingMarkets have now too much holdings of this
'Exported Inflaction'.... something gotta give!
Perhaps it is safe to say that the
DollarSystem is the reason for the prosperity and life-style of the
CombinedWest ...
though purchasing power is going down in the CombinedWest landscapre as well... but the
DollarSystem and
its main beneficitiary have NEVER had so good .... and they wish to rightfully, from their perspective, keep it this way.
Logical!
AsianTigers of ASEAN... boom then bust with currency crisis...
then China bailed the ASEAN out by not devaluating its currency....
@Shotgunner51
So the DollarSystem dones't have a problem of Liquidity....
it has problem of underwritting... hence, the
Globalisation will continue and no jobs/manufacturing is going to go home. Simple!
Asia is the Only place where next thirty years of Growth is most likely.
Now in this conext we need to understand the IMF, WB, ADB or other rating agencies supporting India Next Big Thing narrative... and why not! Logical!
India's near default and then rescue by the IMF...
MM Singh got the credit for the 'imported' reforms...
.but the Indian economy got some structural shape to have some kind of foundational underpinning for the DollarSystem to integerate it into the Masters of the Universe Pyramid.
The relaxation of visa regime for Indians to the US and all those lofty words/platitudes and then massive aid ...
from Cliton to Trump.... this is all part of that longterm plan of creating another China like production lines so that the
Financialisation of Everything could continue....
India would get GDP growth....
DollarSystem will get a larger underwritter to be integerated into FED swap window. And once again..why not!
In the intial phase the idea was to boost trade between the US and India upto $500Bln .... but for that
ModiRegime needed to do certain things...
Also, important here that the
CombinedWest/DollarSystem is
NOT going to create another China to deal with in next twenty/thirty years.... so not all eggs would be coming to Indian basket.
ModiRegime has been big on soundbites and very low on delivery as it is necessary/demanded by the DollarSystem... namely, privatisation of SOEs, liberalisation of land and labour laws and legal cover/protection for investments and bigger % of ownership.
Unlike China ... India is not in a position to negotiate from position of strength regarding ACTUAL transfer of key Technologies... key to be anything in the
Global TechnoFeudalHierachy!
Also, the Infrastructure in India is not condusive to mass manufacturing and seamless logistics or just-in-time
SupplyChainManagement.
We have seen the Development Models of ASEAN and China ...where there was very clear longterm roadmap of development.
Singapore was an elected Dictatorship which kept on dilvering consistently... so were in practice the good years of Malaysia.... Vietnam is now following the same model rather well!
The FlightPath to enter into MiddleIncome country won't go hand-in-hand with Liberalism of the CombinedWest in barely developing countries @Reddington I
t does make the upper middle class feel good and chatty or the media to punch some catchy headlines... ground realities dont change.
Now looking at the Indian performance of
ServicesDelivery, which is the measure of
Functionality of Governance, can it be said to be equal or better than Vietnam..let alone Singapore or Malaysia?
How many Indian universities are in top 100 or 200 WorldClass universities?
India can produce, perhaps, half a million of engineers a year...but what is the quality of these graduates?
What is overall
Quality of Education and
Skill Levels of average Indians?.... Compared to the ASEAN/China????
India can surely become a $7 trillion economy but it has to do deep structural reforms... which will be painful to say the least... It also has to upgrade its infrastructure to 21st Century standards ... in total Indian needs to invest $3Trillion in development and upgradation of its Infrastructure and also spend heavily in its educational system as well with equal urgency.
The above would mean privatisation and borrowing... Borrowing won't be a problem in
DollarSystem...but the colletral is what India fears...and shies away at everymoment.
But one thing is certain that India has now fully committed itself to DollarSystem ...
which is why BRICS is DeadDonkey and SCO presence of India is cerimonial at best.
The holding back of full scale dive into DollarSystem is sytemic problems in the financial sector of India with too much NPLs.... monitisation of currency printing/debt and no reforms ... all these combined will create major problems not in too distant future.
The jobless growth was driven by the Stockmarket FDI and not actual expansion of industrial output.... and with the
KhooniVirus having a field day... hot money left the market...as in every emerging market and tried seek shelter under the FED stimulus or simply buy dollars.
Some factories will relocate out of China..the process is not new... just masla added for eyeballs... al the
Sunset Industries were/are planned to leave as China wishes to climb up in the
ValueChain of Manufacturing.... Pak SEZs or BD SEZ were to host these Sunset industries.... some already moved to Vietnam....
In a nutshell India has to do a few things for the
DollarSystem if it wishes to profit from it and become part of the
CombinedWest.....
GCC was the first to look to India for investments...as it is part of the
CombinedWest or better said DollarSystem... and then there was the US prompting as there as well.
All in all the DollarSystem and its PolicyInstruements will say or do anything that can preseve or advance the System.... why not again... this is what Systems do.
Just packing factories from China and unpacking them in India is fanciful at best...given the skill levels are not there. Also the discipline of the workforce and labour laws... political stability and predictablity of policies are key requirements for such an enterprise.
My sense is that the
CombinedWest/DollarSystem will spread the factories to as many as possible
EmergingMarkets to
broaden the base for DollarSystem so that already FinancialisedEverything can be sustained..if not expand.
Just to be brutally honest... Pakistan is still fiddling with SEZ oprationalisation .... it should have by now created dedicated SEZ for Germany, Japan, China, SK and the US.... each with its own dedicated SEZ...
The paralysis of GoP and absense of Clear Roadmap towards Industrialisation is painfully apparent. Wrote a lot about it...now too painful...hence, a BemusedObserver!
The fundamental difference between the Chinese and Indians is that of work ethics and behaviour.... Where the Chinese ..or better said EastAsian are more disciplined with higher impulse controle and willingness to learn/adopt/put in long hours... Indians tend to be more impulsive, less disciplined and generally easy going... It is not meant as some silly racism but as comparative benchmarkt required for Industrialisation.
Studious vs Impulsive
Short term vs Long term
Unless we know the length and breadth of Indian NPLs and EfficiencyQuotient of its SOEs ... numbers don't matter. And what everyone fails to appreciate is the PensionCrisis that is just around the corner for India... despite have very young population....
Indian government is too large and too expensive .... Pension. Pensions. Pensions.
Same goes for Pakistan as well!
What we have seen in the Western media regarding IoJK or Muslims of MaqboozaHindustan was/is a pressure tactic for ModiRegime to shape up and focus on agreed things to open up the economy for the DollarSystem to make a nest.
GCC is just adding the need push the above mention pressure tactic
@Ace of Spades
Mangus
P.S. It is useless to compare Pakistan to India ....in the context above.... India is the only country in Asia/World which has to potential to become a Challenger to China if it fully integerated into the DollarSystem. Choise is Indian...conseqences for everyone!
