Surenas
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Over three decades Iran has conducted a policy on the Caucasus that was agreed with Russia
to a certain extent. Aside from other objectives, Iran viewed the Caucasus as an arena of agreements with Russia and often made a compromise on a number of issues since Russia used to be a supplier of arms and technology and supposedly promoted the development of foreign political and economic relations with Iran.
Iran tried to bring its interests in line with Russia’s interests regarding Armenia and the Karabakh issue, and Iran pretended aligning itself to Russia’s interests. In reality, Iranians have always tried to push Armenia slightly towards more independence from Russia.
At the same time, to the extent of development of relations between Armenia and Iran and the international community the Russians became more cautious and less friendly towards the attempts of Armenia and Iran to play more independent regional games.
A mostly similar situation occurred in regard to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Russia is against the opportunities of communication in the northwest, that is European direction, primarily transportation of natural gas that would have led to Russia’s loss of important geo-economic positions.
At the same time, Iran was conducting a temperate policy on the Islamic region of the North Caucasus. The Iranians have not done any substantial step towards establishing relations with Chechnya and Dagestan. Djohar Dudayev used to blame Iranians for their coward and reluctance to spoil their relations with Russia. Thus, in the result of Iran’s departure from the North Caucasus Turkey and Saudi Arabia strengthened their foothold in this region, and the question is who benefitted.
Now the situation has changed sharply. Blockade on Iran has been lifted, Iran is becoming a strategic partner to the United States and Great Britain, and there is no reason to believe that their commitments on sustaining relations with Russia are nothing but a token of the centuries-old traditions of Iranian diplomacy.
First of all, Iran could change its attitude to the Karabakh issue and recognize the right of the Armenian people of NKR to self-determination that is Russia’s nightmare.
Iran has started making plans on strengthening its influence on the North Caucasus, first of all in Dagestan and Chechnya, as well as North and South Ossetia because it considers the people of Ossetia as consanguineous people. The Iranians are dealing thoroughly with the problems of the Avar and Lezghi peoples, including those relating to Azerbaijan’s interests. In addition, Iran intends to resolve these relations and contacts, ignoring Russia’s interests, using opportunities provided by the international law, civil rights and the religious context.
Iran’s activity in the North Caucasus could lead to not only a significant change of the political situation in the region but will also create active levers of pressure on Russia. Besides, alongside with the development of the Iranian-American relations the North Caucasian problems may mount to new arenas of debate, involving Iran as well.
Other unexpected scenarios are possible related to the Iranian-Georgian relations because Georgia has gained sufficient know-how on relations with the peoples of the North Caucasus. Iran expects to set up communications with Europe together with Georgia, which is an opportunity to fulfill Iran’s centennial dream.
Russia will do everything to hinder Iran’s plans and efforts in the Caucasus, first of all its policy involving Armenia’s assistance, which may take unexpected turns, spoiling Iran-Armenia relations. However, the Iran-Armenia relations could be an important factor in the American policy on containing Turkish expansion but only in case the United States and Iran are able to restore Armenia’s sovereignty.
Moscow Uses Armenia Against Iran
to a certain extent. Aside from other objectives, Iran viewed the Caucasus as an arena of agreements with Russia and often made a compromise on a number of issues since Russia used to be a supplier of arms and technology and supposedly promoted the development of foreign political and economic relations with Iran.Iran tried to bring its interests in line with Russia
’s interests regarding Armenia and the Karabakh issue, and Iran pretended aligning itself to Russia’s interests. In reality, Iranians have always tried to push Armenia slightly towards more independence from Russia.At the same time, to the extent of development of relations between Armenia and Iran and the international community the Russians became more cautious and less friendly towards the attempts of Armenia and Iran to play
more independent regional games.A mostly similar situation occurred in regard to Georgia
and Azerbaijan. Russia is against the opportunities of communication in the northwest, that is European direction, primarily transportation of natural gas that would have led to Russia’s loss of important geo-economic positions.At the same time, Iran was conducting a temperate policy on the Islamic region of the North Caucasus. The Iranians have not done any substantial step towards establishing relations with Chechnya and Dagestan. Djohar Dudayev used to blame Iranians for their coward and reluctance to spoil their relations with Russia. Thus, in the result of Iran’s departure from the North Caucasus Turkey and Saudi Arabia strengthened their foothold in this region, and the question is who benefitted.
Now the situation has changed sharply. Blockade on Iran has been lifted, Iran is becoming a strategic
partner to the United States and Great Britain, and there is no reason to believe that their commitments on sustaining relations with Russia are nothing but a token of the centuries-old traditions of Iranian diplomacy.First of all, Iran could change its attitude to the Karabakh issue and recognize the right of the Armenian people of NKR to self-determination that is Russia’s nightmare.
Iran has started making plans on strengthening its influence on the North Caucasus, first of all in Dagestan and Chechnya, as well as North and South Ossetia because it considers the people of Ossetia as consanguineous people. The Iranians are dealing thoroughly with the problems of the Avar and Lezghi peoples, including those relating
to Azerbaijan’s interests. In addition, Iran intends to resolve these relations and contacts, ignoring Russia’s interests, using opportunities provided by the international law, civil rights and the religious context.Iran’s activity in the North Caucasus could lead to not only a significant change of the political situation in the region but will also create active levers of pressure on Russia. Besides, alongside with the development of the Iranian-American relations the North Caucasian problems may mount to new arenas of debate, involving Iran as well.
Other unexpected scenarios are possible related to the Iranian-Georgian relations because Georgia has gained sufficient know-how on relations with the peoples of the North Caucasus. Iran expects to set up communications with Europe together with Georgia, which is an opportunity to fulfill Iran’s centennial dream.
Russia will do everything to hinder Iran’s plans and efforts in the Caucasus, first of all its policy involving Armenia’s assistance, which may take unexpected turns, spoiling Iran-Armenia relations. However, the Iran-Armenia relations could be an important factor in the American policy on containing Turkish expansion but only in case the United States and Iran are able to restore Armenia’s sovereignty.
Moscow Uses Armenia Against Iran
