Arash1991
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Introduction and motivation:
Hi
It is seldom that a completely new threat is opened here, as most topics are fortunately well covered here. I would like to open a special analysis thread that examines the various aspects on a strategic level in particular. This should facilitate the assessment of the overall situation if one knows in which overall context certain systems work.
Lets have interesting analyzes and discussions here
First Topic: Israeli Airstrikes in Syria - Why possible ?
Introduction:
Why are Israeli Airstrikes on Iranian facilities and Iranian allies in Syria happening on a regular bases? and more important:
Why is or partly was it so hard for the Syrian or Iranian Air defence to defend against these threads despite modern Radar and Air defence Systems?
Problem description:
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria (Blue Points)
We can clearly see that most of the Israeli Airstrikes (blue) take place near damascus or somewhere around the lebanese border.
This leads me to following Theory:
It contains 2 main arguments:
1.) The Israeli Airforce can hide behind and between Lebanese Mountains /Golan Heights and act under the radar
2.) Israels EW Radar sites are able to detect deep inside Syria and should also be able to Jam deep inside Syrian terretory.
Experiment:
To get well founded information and confirm this assumption I Used an Open Source Radar Coverage Simulating tool from Cambridge pixels (free download after email verification) and analyzed first the Israeli Point of View in terms of Radar:
The Radar Coverage Tool shows the Coverage of a Radar on a specific location in different heights (values can be edited in the program).
Legend:
Radar Coverage somewhere in Saudi Arabian desert near iraqi border. Flat terrain and no mountains.
Note that Mountains and valleys are disorbing the coverage and also Radar Height plays a important role.
The higher the location on wich the Radar is installed, the greater the detection range of very low altitude areas.
For that issue I figured out the best possible location for a Radar Site in Israel to observe Syria Airspace.
Used different maps to find already existing Israeli Military Areas and EW Radar Site. One Site is located on the Golan heights and it seems that there is a stationary EW Radar.
Location of the most effective Israeli Sites in regards of Syrian Airspace observation are:
1.) 33.315679677381, 35.809110418906
Source: Google Earth
2.) 33.304466260578685, 35.79751431755392
Source: Google Earth
Here are some closer Images of the Radar sites itself:
If we Simulate Radar Coverage of these Radar Stations we will recieve following Result:
We can clearly Observe that Israel is capable of oversee not only parts of south lebanon, but also far beyond Damascus deep inside Syria on a 0 meter level. Theese early warning Radar Stations have the capability of detecting any movement on the ground level. if a Syrian fighter Aircraft rolls out on Damascus Airport, Israel will be able to see it.
There are also other Locations on the Golan heights on wich non Stationary Radars can be deployed wich will end in a comparable result.
Syrian Point of view:
Air defence forces located inside Syria are caught behind the Lebanese Mountains and the Golan heights.
Even with the best Radar in the world, it will not be possible to change this circumstance. Only way is to use AWACS or OTH Radar Systems. But both Radars are not capable of hitting guide an Air defence Missile into its target.
Here are some different Radar Positions on the Syrian Side. even on the best positions i found near damascus Military Bases:
Near Damascus:
Near Syrian Side of Golan heights
There is only one single location wich comes close to Israeli terrain capacities and this is some hundret meters near Israeli border ninside the Golan DMZ Zone exactly beside the Israeli EW Site:
Further restrictions for any Air defence Force wich operates inside the Syrian terretory:
Source: Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) (ausairpower.net)
Scenario under Actual Circumstances:
I believe that nearly all the Israeli Airstrikes near Damascus were supported by massive Jamming of the abovely named Radar Sites.
Possible Jamming Area when Israeli Jets are flying attacks on Syria from Golan heights and lebanon:
Blue: Possible Jamming Area from incoming Jets with Jamming Pods (self protection range from radar included.)
Black: Possible Jamming Area From Israeli EW Radar Site
Possible Solutions:
Installation of strong and powerful OTH Radar Stations (Ghadir Radar)
+can detect even jets inside valleys from above
+Can set medium and short range systems on high alert
-not possible to use them as target radar
-not possible to determine exact position of enemy aircraft, specially when Electronic Warfare is ON.
Activate Air defence of Hezbollah in Lebanon or station modern Systems over there
+ Lebanese Airspace is denied for Israel
+ Operative options for Israel shrinking massively
- unknown political effects in lebanon
- Iran may loose surprise momentum if it has already stationed sophisticated Air defence Systems in Lebanon. May dont want to play this card now
Use AWACS
+Same Radar effect like OTh Radar System
+Non Stationary target, can Opperate and Move deep inside Syrian terretory
-Expensive for 24/7 surveillance
Concentrate on CIWS and short range Air defence
+Ammunition interception is becoming more easier than years before
+Ammunition itself does not have own EW systems and little space for maneuverability
-Must rely on OTH and Long Range Radar Data
-Can cover only a small area
Develop and deploy stronger Radar Systems:
+ Self protection distance of enemy aircraft will be increased, this means that when they fire their missiles thowards their targets, short Range and CIWS have more reaction time,
-Cost intensive, loss will cost alot (on the other hand: they will be developed even without this case)
-Risk that our best technology will fall into enemy hands under specific circumstances
EW Systems against this israeli Radar station
+ Radar Capability of Israel will be reduced
-own or allied Radars will be maybe jammed too. Already happened in the past cause Syrian S-200 were too old: Iran Paralysed Syrian Defense Systems During Israeli Strikes: Source - The Syrian Observer
Destroy that Israeli Radar site completly
+ Israeli Radar coverage over Damascus ends
+ Destruction is realistic and can be done very cost effective. Its also close Syrian boder. Only some single meters away from it
+ Best option is doing it during a war or a next Israeli Airstrike
- Unknown Political consequences
- Unkown israeli Reaction (escalation level unknown)
A good introduction into Modern Air defence:
How Effective Are Modern Air Defenses? - YouTube
Hi
It is seldom that a completely new threat is opened here, as most topics are fortunately well covered here. I would like to open a special analysis thread that examines the various aspects on a strategic level in particular. This should facilitate the assessment of the overall situation if one knows in which overall context certain systems work.
Lets have interesting analyzes and discussions here
First Topic: Israeli Airstrikes in Syria - Why possible ?
Introduction:
Why are Israeli Airstrikes on Iranian facilities and Iranian allies in Syria happening on a regular bases? and more important:
Why is or partly was it so hard for the Syrian or Iranian Air defence to defend against these threads despite modern Radar and Air defence Systems?
Problem description:
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria (Blue Points)
We can clearly see that most of the Israeli Airstrikes (blue) take place near damascus or somewhere around the lebanese border.
This leads me to following Theory:
It contains 2 main arguments:
1.) The Israeli Airforce can hide behind and between Lebanese Mountains /Golan Heights and act under the radar
2.) Israels EW Radar sites are able to detect deep inside Syria and should also be able to Jam deep inside Syrian terretory.
Experiment:
To get well founded information and confirm this assumption I Used an Open Source Radar Coverage Simulating tool from Cambridge pixels (free download after email verification) and analyzed first the Israeli Point of View in terms of Radar:
The Radar Coverage Tool shows the Coverage of a Radar on a specific location in different heights (values can be edited in the program).
Legend:
| Color | Height Coverage meters over Ground |
| Red | 0m |
| Yellow | 5m |
| Green | 50m |
| Blue | 100m |
| Black | 1000m |
Radar Coverage somewhere in Saudi Arabian desert near iraqi border. Flat terrain and no mountains.
Note that Mountains and valleys are disorbing the coverage and also Radar Height plays a important role.
The higher the location on wich the Radar is installed, the greater the detection range of very low altitude areas.
For that issue I figured out the best possible location for a Radar Site in Israel to observe Syria Airspace.
Used different maps to find already existing Israeli Military Areas and EW Radar Site. One Site is located on the Golan heights and it seems that there is a stationary EW Radar.
Location of the most effective Israeli Sites in regards of Syrian Airspace observation are:
1.) 33.315679677381, 35.809110418906
Source: Google Earth
2.) 33.304466260578685, 35.79751431755392
Source: Google Earth
Here are some closer Images of the Radar sites itself:
If we Simulate Radar Coverage of these Radar Stations we will recieve following Result:
We can clearly Observe that Israel is capable of oversee not only parts of south lebanon, but also far beyond Damascus deep inside Syria on a 0 meter level. Theese early warning Radar Stations have the capability of detecting any movement on the ground level. if a Syrian fighter Aircraft rolls out on Damascus Airport, Israel will be able to see it.
There are also other Locations on the Golan heights on wich non Stationary Radars can be deployed wich will end in a comparable result.
Syrian Point of view:
Air defence forces located inside Syria are caught behind the Lebanese Mountains and the Golan heights.
Even with the best Radar in the world, it will not be possible to change this circumstance. Only way is to use AWACS or OTH Radar Systems. But both Radars are not capable of hitting guide an Air defence Missile into its target.
Here are some different Radar Positions on the Syrian Side. even on the best positions i found near damascus Military Bases:
Near Damascus:
Near Syrian Side of Golan heights
There is only one single location wich comes close to Israeli terrain capacities and this is some hundret meters near Israeli border ninside the Golan DMZ Zone exactly beside the Israeli EW Site:
Further restrictions for any Air defence Force wich operates inside the Syrian terretory:
- Jamming capability of Israeli Force will reduce Radar Capabilities of Syrian Forces even more. Jamming Range of Israeli Aircraft are unknown to me and shure will depend on Radar Power of nearby Air defence Radar Systems in Syria. For Example, an Bavar 373 Radar System will definitly force the intruding Aircraft to a bigger self protection range to the radar site than an S-200 System. Source: Jammers - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics
- Use of Stealth Technology by the Israeli Airforce will reduce Radar Capabilities of Syrian AD. Optimum RCS of Israeli F-35 is according to Open Source: 0.0001 m². We have to take into notice that this RCS is only reached under best conditions, best angle of attack and best height.
Source: Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) (ausairpower.net)
- Syrian Forces are not able to shoot down Israeli Aircraft (under these estimations). But they are able to shoot down incoming ammunitions and missiles fired by the Israeli Jets
Scenario under Actual Circumstances:
I believe that nearly all the Israeli Airstrikes near Damascus were supported by massive Jamming of the abovely named Radar Sites.
Possible Jamming Area when Israeli Jets are flying attacks on Syria from Golan heights and lebanon:
Blue: Possible Jamming Area from incoming Jets with Jamming Pods (self protection range from radar included.)
Black: Possible Jamming Area From Israeli EW Radar Site
Possible Solutions:
Installation of strong and powerful OTH Radar Stations (Ghadir Radar)
+can detect even jets inside valleys from above
+Can set medium and short range systems on high alert
-not possible to use them as target radar
-not possible to determine exact position of enemy aircraft, specially when Electronic Warfare is ON.
Activate Air defence of Hezbollah in Lebanon or station modern Systems over there
+ Lebanese Airspace is denied for Israel
+ Operative options for Israel shrinking massively
- unknown political effects in lebanon
- Iran may loose surprise momentum if it has already stationed sophisticated Air defence Systems in Lebanon. May dont want to play this card now
Use AWACS
+Same Radar effect like OTh Radar System
+Non Stationary target, can Opperate and Move deep inside Syrian terretory
-Expensive for 24/7 surveillance
Concentrate on CIWS and short range Air defence
+Ammunition interception is becoming more easier than years before
+Ammunition itself does not have own EW systems and little space for maneuverability
-Must rely on OTH and Long Range Radar Data
-Can cover only a small area
Develop and deploy stronger Radar Systems:
+ Self protection distance of enemy aircraft will be increased, this means that when they fire their missiles thowards their targets, short Range and CIWS have more reaction time,
-Cost intensive, loss will cost alot (on the other hand: they will be developed even without this case)
-Risk that our best technology will fall into enemy hands under specific circumstances
EW Systems against this israeli Radar station
+ Radar Capability of Israel will be reduced
-own or allied Radars will be maybe jammed too. Already happened in the past cause Syrian S-200 were too old: Iran Paralysed Syrian Defense Systems During Israeli Strikes: Source - The Syrian Observer
Destroy that Israeli Radar site completly
+ Israeli Radar coverage over Damascus ends
+ Destruction is realistic and can be done very cost effective. Its also close Syrian boder. Only some single meters away from it
+ Best option is doing it during a war or a next Israeli Airstrike
- Unknown Political consequences
- Unkown israeli Reaction (escalation level unknown)
A good introduction into Modern Air defence:
How Effective Are Modern Air Defenses? - YouTube
