Iranian Chill Thread

[HGV]

The USA openly claimed responsibility for directly carrying out terrorist assassination of an Iranian commander.

In the case of zionist sabotage and terrorism, either proxies were used or the action was covert. Thence, Iran is not compelled to strike directly in order to maintain the balance, she can respond through her own local allies.

Israel has openly claimed responsibility for martyring dozens of high ranking Iranian soldiers in Syria. And their level of involvement in the martyrdom of Fakhrizadeh is well beyond Iran's potential level of involvement in the actions of Hamas in recent days.

The equivalent scenario would be if Azerbaijan launches a surprise invasion of Iran and Israel takes credit for it.

 

[SalarHaqq]

I don’t know Salar, losing momentum by not exploiting such a conflict to its fullest extent would be a missed opportunity.

What's there to say Iran is not using the opportunity to the fullest?

acting pragmatically is smarter if the end goal of Israel’s dismantling can be achieved without all out warfare and just “resistance”.

Yes indeed.

It's also that all out warfare is less likely to achieve this goal and way too much of a wildcard too boot.

My main concern here is what happens if this operation by Hamas is taken care of, Gaza gets reduced to literal rubble and all they have to show for it is dead civilians and a higher than normal amount of dead Israeli soldiers? Is there a next step, a plan b?

You left out their most important achievement, brother: the truly unprecedented way in which Tel Aviv's image of military untouchabilty is now shattered. Not just the image, actual expectations of their planners, political establishment and military brass (not to mention supporters and apologists) have been quashed. This will have multiple ramifications and consequences for years and probably decades to come.

The equation has just shifted tangibly, about as much as it did after HezbAllah's victory in 2006.

 

[Blue In Green]

Can you elaborate exactly what options Zionia has without incurring a heavy price?

They don't have any "good" options that will satisfy their fanatical risk averse nature, what's happening now will incur heavy costs onto all involved.

 

[jauk]

They don't, what's happening now will incur heavy costs onto all involved.

Again, we’re gaming scenarios here, how exactly?

 

[SalarHaqq]

اینم انتقام سخت

You and like-minded folks have been greatly vindicated on this. Let it serve as a memorable lesson to pessimists and naysayers.

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Israel has openly claimed responsibility for martyring dozens of high ranking Iranian soldiers in Syria.

Off the top of my head I cannot remember if more than 23 Iranian soldiers were martyred in zionist strikes in Syria, but there's a nuance, namely that said martyrs were stationed outside Iranian borders.

The equivalent would be for Iran to target zionist forces outside Occupied Palestine, which Iran did by leveling to the ground the Mossad compound in northern Iraq with ballistic missiles.

And their level of involvement in the martyrdom of Fakhrizadeh is well beyond Iran's potential level of involvement in the actions of Hamas in recent days.

Hamas' prowess in technical terms has been reliant upon Iranian assistance. This isn't about measuring degrees of involvement, it's the fact that the current operation owes its feasibility to Iran. Also these two events aren't of identical nature.

The equivalent scenario would be if Azerbaijan launches a surprise invasion of Iran and Israel takes credit for it.

We would surely be considering Tel Aviv as the paramount party to blame (rightly so, I might add).

 

[Blue In Green]

Again, we’re gaming scenarios here, how exactly?

The IDF of today are not the same heavily ideologically driven force that created the apartheid state back in circa 1940s. Most members are young and relatively reluctant to even go to any frontline let alone headlong into certain death. So any plan IDF command undertakes to tackle Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon will see massive casualties in the thousands. This is something they haven't felt in a long time. Just how resistant they are to such losses remains to be seen. We know the Americans will bleed themselves dry for Israels sake, so there is that to consider here.

Eventual incursion into Gaza (which they have to do) will bog them down almost immediately due to just how dense and cluttered that god-forsaken open air prison is (I say this with remorse not hate for the Palestine coastal enclave). Lots of room for constant ambushes and traps of which they've laid thousands down over the years. As IDF have said, it will be a hard battle lasting a long time of which we don't know what the conclusion will be. Could be a scenario where, just like last time. Israel goes into Gaza, gets hammered and pulls out later claiming whatever they need to in order to justify the means/ends but Hamas might still be around.

Another wild card and what Israel itself deathly fears is the involvement of the Levants strongest non-state entity, Hezbollah. IRGC has done an almost perfect job at creating the regions foremost para-military elite fighting force that can best Israel on the battlefield. If the Northern front explodes into open-warfare. Israel has a three prong conflict on its hands. A anti-Hamas operation in Gaza (thousands dead), a massive security issue in the West Bank (Thousands to hundreds dead) and Hezbollah launching endless waves of attack obliterating critical assets all over the state especially in the North where it's possible Hezbollah fighters, just like Gaza; can move into areas under constant rocket fire and take ground.

Clearly Israel's hermetic approach to IADS doesn't work perfectly. They made it a numbers game, and they don't have enough numbers.

 

[shadihassan28]

I haven’t been reading all the comments to be honest so I don’t know if anyone brought this up but remember years ago when it was brought up by iIDF that in a future war hezbollah would attempt to take control of Israel territory by sending several hundred troops into northern Israel even if it was only for a day or week it would come off as a psychological victory, personally I think hezbollah has advisors inside Gaza territory I think all this planning went old school no communication devices whatsoever, it really is amazing.

There’s another thing I have been thinking about is those paragliding Hamas members they must have sent abroad for training, it’s not as easy jumping on and bombing that tower.
If they are smart they move most of their bargaining chips outside of Gaza while still keeping a dozen or so in the strip, like I say I may not advocate attacks on civilians but once it’s there you can hope to use fend off a wider invasion

 

[jauk]

At least four immediate geostrategic uses are discernible to me:

1) Insistence on zionist responsibility for the current flare up. One of the main axes espoused by anti-Iran narratives is to blame the Resistance and by extension the Islamic Republic for irrational decision making, including suggestions that Iran just started a major war. President Ra'isis declaration offers the indispendable counter on the diplomatic front.

2) Preemptive warning to zionists not to exceed limits in terms of escalation.

3) By singling out the zionist regime and positioning it against the rest of the region, it drives home the point that any normalization effort on Riyadh's part will now be fraught with severe political hazards.

4) By the same logic, warning versus potential zionist enticement of Turkey into forceful action against Iranian interests in Syria, a potential plan B for Tel Aviv following Iran's successful defusion of zionist-sponsored threats involving Ankara in the south Caucasus.

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Weapons, training, planning and more. Probably intelligence as well, which was key to this effort's success.

Your response is exactly the fundamental issue in poor messaging. One on hand, If you can’t relay your message in 120 characters (ok 240 nowadays)—game over. As for the PressTV message, the message fails since you saw fit to explain it in multiple paragraphs. And that’s a double failure.

I’m being hard on you since I know you’re with the good guys. But your inability to see this deep issue is problematic and it hurts the cause.

And no, I never read your long posts.

468 characters.

 

[shadihassan28]

Your response is exactly the fundamental issue in poor messaging. One on hand, If you can’t relay your message in 120 characters (ok 240 nowadays)—game over. As for the PressTV message, the message fails since you saw fit to explain it in multiple paragraphs. And that’s a double failure.

I’m being hard on you since I know you’re with the good guys. But your inability to see this deep issue is problematic and it hurts the cause.

And no, I never read your long posts.

And no, I never read your long posts.
Honestly just one of the few things I agree with

 

[SalarHaqq]

Your response is exactly the fundamental issue in poor messaging. One on hand, If you can’t relay your message in 120 characters (ok 240 nowadays)—game over. As for the PressTV message, the message fails since you saw fit to explain it in multiple paragraphs. And that’s a double failure.

I’m being hard on you since I know you’re with the good guys. But your inability to see this deep issue is problematic and it hurts the cause.

And no, I never read your long posts.

If you did not read my response you won't be able to judge. I saw four uses to President Rai'sis statement and enumerated these in the briefest manner conceivable. I'd like to know how the conveyed points could possibly have been synthetized any further. And no, if your message serves four goals simultaneously it is not a failure.

My post wasn't voluminous: it takes a minute to read. Furthermore there's no rule - written or customary - stipulating that public statements must be confined to 240 characters, don't know where you're deriving this persuasion from. A standard news report is far lengthier.

Your comment leaves the gist of your message open to subjective interpretation.

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Honestly just one of the few things I agree with

Those aren't meant for you anyway.

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711093740071174195

Disappointing

I always preferred Esteghlal anyway

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711093740071174195

Disappointing

I always preferred Esteghlal anyway

I can’t hear what they are saying besides Palestine and kill them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711108699555598683

IDF has become so soft. Their entire experience is in the hands of IAF and bombing from the air. On the ground they are weak without air support or urban combat

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711098753367552012

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711118826534797756

I mean they talk about Iranian incompetence and blunders, but this is next level **** right here.

From shooting themselves to having tank transport accidents.


Let's wind the clocks back a year. These cops and lawyers wouldn't dare cross any of you... I mean, what happened? Did your balls drop off? Hmm? - The Joker

 

[shadihassan28]

I can’t hear what they are saying besides Palestine and kill them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711108699555598683

IDF has become so soft. Their entire experience is in the hands of IAF and bombing from the air. On the ground they are weak without air support or urban combat

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711098753367552012

You know what I was thinking how many Hamas soldiers were left behind dressed in idf military gear wait til idf forces come in view pretend to join up with them than attack

 

[tsunset]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711118826534797756

I mean they talk about Iranian incompetence and blunders, but this is next level **** right here.

From shooting themselves to having tank transport accidents.


Let's wind the clocks back a year. These cops and lawyers wouldn't dare cross any of you... I mean, what happened? Did your balls drop off? Hmm? - The Joker

Do you have the one where they shoot themselves?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1711118826534797756

I mean they talk about Iranian incompetence and blunders, but this is next level **** right here.

From shooting themselves to having tank transport accidents.


Let's wind the clocks back a year. These cops and lawyers wouldn't dare cross any of you... I mean, what happened? Did your balls drop off? Hmm? - The Joker

This is only the beginning of the exposure of their army propaganda they have done and people trusted for decades.