Iranian Chill Thread

[QWECXZ]

As said, no matter what area one chooses to compare the two countries in, south Korea was ahead of Iran prior to the Islamic Revolution. I essentially debunked a false belief held by some Iranians that Iran jumped ahead of south Korea in the 1970's. That's simply wrong, and in fact it was during the 1970's that the Koreans expanded their already held advance.

The key factor behind these diverging trajectories lies in the Iranian economy's dependence on oil exports. One can't successfully develop a large-scale, diversified and technologically advanced industry by relying on the hard currency windfall of crude energy sales. This is something the Islamic Republic has understood, hence the insistence on the development of non-oil exports (which today have surpassed oil exports, although some of it is gas, but exports of manufactured goods are still about on par with crude oil and gas sales).

Also, the Islamic Republic resulted from a popular revolution. It takes years for a revolutionary government to stabilize and gain actual control. Then followed eight years of Imposed War during which no significant industrial development could be expected (nonetheless some of the necessary groundwork was laid right away). Then followed illegal US-imposed sanctions, which tend to hamper trade.

Yet Iran today is exporting automobiles, home appliance, steel, cement, petrochemicals, pharmaceutics, a variety of agricultural produce and more. Before the Revolution Iran wasn't exporting anything but oil, carpets, pistachios and caviar. And given the policies of the shah regime as well as the wishes of its western and zionist patrons, it's improbable that Iran would have achieved such an economic transition.

Iran's electronics industry started almost the same time as South Korea's. Look where they are now.
Iran's nuclear industry was on par with South Korea and around the same time. Look where they are now. Honestly, this one is actually very sad because our nuclear industry has cost us a lot more than South Korea's and yet we're decades behind them now.
Iran's car industry was also on par with South Korea, per your own examples. Look where they are now.

At the very least, one could see that the gap has not become smaller after the revolution, but in fact has grown multiple times wider.

I mean there are many different ways to compare the two countries, but I don't want to use economy as just one factor for a country's progress. But If we want to rely on that, Iran's GDP per capita in 1979, the same country where you claim people were dirt poor, was one-third more than that of South Korea's.

South Korea, GDP per capita (1979): $1,783.62
Iran, GDP per capita (1979): $2,427.47 USD

Iran has not been selling that much oil after the revolution. Right after the revolution, Iraq-Iran war happened which reduced our oil production from 5 million barrels per day to less than 1.5 million barrels per day. And I don't have to tell you that since 2009, Iran's oil exports have been hit really hardly (except for a short period after the JCPOA) and yet Iran is nowhere near countries like South Korea. So, if oil holds a country back, we have had a lot of time to catch up without relying on oil but is the gap closing now?

As a matter of fact, history suggests that war in itself stimulates rapid growth in technology and industry. A lot of Iran's advances, and the self-reliance belief in most Iranians today, come from the fact that they have learned the hard way that when a country attacks you, you should rely only on yourself and nobody else.

Fair enough. Neither was Turkey. Now compare Turkey's exports and Iran's.

 

[aryobarzan]

Ok fellows now hear it from some one who lived in Iran 1975 traveled Turkey for two weeks by car from Bulgarian border to Tehran(1977) and had a south Korean engineer as an occasional beer friend who was working to set up an industrial size slaughter house in the outskirts of Shiraz.

IRAN 1975-1980 was more developed than Turkey and very close to South Korea development as I was told by the south Korean engineer...Turkey was a real mess..no laws..watch movie "midnite express"...real story of what happened to an American in Turkey...movie was close to reality ...Iran GDP was double Turkey and you could see it in their cities (I am not talking about tourist areas .this is Istambol. Ankara...and beyond towards Iran border)..

I ENTERED IRAN AND I KNEW I AM IN CIVILIZATION.

Iran today much more industrialized than we would ever be under monarchy...socially we are gone isolated but that is easy to overcome.

 

[Stryker1982]

Ok fellows now hear it from some one who lived in Iran 1975 traveled Turkey for two weeks by car from Bulgarian border to Tehran(1977) and had a south Korean engineer as an occasional beer friend who was working to set up an industrial size slaughter house in the outskirts of Shiraz.

IRAN 1975-1980 was more developed than Turkey and very close to South Korea development as I was told by the south Korean engineer...Turkey was a real mess..no laws..watch movie "midnite express"...real story of what happened to an American in Turkey...movie was close to reality ...Iran GDP was double Turkey and you could see it in their cities (I am not talking about tourist areas .this is Istambol. Ankara...and beyond towards Iran border)..

I ENTERED IRAN AND I KNEW I AM IN CIVILIZATION.

Iran today much more industrialized than we would ever be under monarchy...socially we are gone isolated but that is easy to overcome.

Also was told the same thing by older relatives who were in Turkey during the 80s.

 

[QWECXZ]

Also was told the same thing by older relatives who were in Turkey during the 80s.

Yes, me too. That seems to be the general consensus.

The truth is that Iran was experiencing going through a large economic/development expansion in 1970s, particularly after the 1973 oil crisis, that could've changed the country very fast. Sadly, we can never know where that path would've led to had the 1979 revolution never happened and whatever we say now will be only theories and extrapolation based on our interpretations of different numbers.

 

[aryobarzan]

Yes, me too. That seems to be the general consensus.

The truth is that Iran was experiencing going through a large economic/development expansion in 1970s, particularly after the 1973 oil crisis, that could've changed the country very fast. Sadly, we can never know where that path would've led to had the 1979 revolution never happened and whatever we say now will be only theories and extrapolation based on our interpretations of different numbers.

If you ask me..if no major war happens with Iran this country is destined to lead middle east in the next few decades ..the competitions between Persian ,Turks and Arabs is moving into the economics domain and Iran has advantages that the other two lack..

Turks will be left behind by both Persians and Arabs simply because all things equal they lack independent energy sources...Arabs have the energy but lack cohesion to advance in a real scientific way ...Persians have energy source and scientific cohesion and that will make them the leaders of the new economics middle east...Persians first..Arabs next and Turks in the third spot.. (unless erdogan can put his hands on Iraqi oil..!!)

 

[Stryker1982]

If you ask me..if no major war happens with Iran this country is destined to lead middle east in the next few decades ..the competitions between Persian ,Turks and Arabs is moving into the economics domain and Iran has advantages that the other two lack..

Turks will be left behind by both Persians and Arabs simply because all things equal they lack independent energy sources...Arabs have the energy but lack cohesion to advance in a real scientific way ...Persians have energy source and scientific cohesion and that will make them the leaders of the new economics middle east...Persians first..Arabs next and Turks in the third spot.. (unless erdogan can put his hands on Iraqi oil..!!)

Unless we are isolated by sanctions, part of this growth relies on trade with the world.

 

[aryobarzan]

Unless we are isolated by sanctions, part of this growth relies on trade with the world.

Weponizong trade has lost its major impacts because new centers of power emerging. The sanction on Iran are losing their bite and as time passes countries that lack energy sources will realize that they need fuel and they will come hat in hand to beg for natural gas and oil from energy rich countries like Iran and Russia...we just need one winter without Russian gas for the reality to sink in..lol

 

[QWECXZ]

Weponizong trade has lost its major impacts because new centers of power emerging. The sanction on Iran are losing their bite and as time passes countries that lack energy sources will realize that they need fuel and they will come hat in hand to beg for natural gas and oil from energy rich countries like Iran and Russia...we just need one winter without Russian gas for the reality to sink in..lol

What about electric vehicles? Europe is going to be a huge market for them and that's incentive for companies to spend insane amounts of money on R&D to develop them further and make them widespread.

I don't think oil will be what it is now 15-20 years later and we must prepare for it.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran had 65% of its population as totally illiterate, and only 100,000 university students. And it had no industries outside assembelling cars and household electronics from fully imported components. We made abseloutely nothing.

Today we have above 90% literacy rate and 4.2 million university students. and we actually have real industries of our own.

please top living in a fantacy world painted by propeganda outlets like the BBC and Manoto....

You are confusing time based advancement to a direct correlation with the form of government in charge

Half a century passed...of course there will be advancement regardless of the government in charge. Preposterous to say otherwise.

Look at Saudi Arabia literacy rate + university + GDP rate in 1970’s and then Look at Saudi Arabia literacy rate + university + GDP in 2022

Saudi Arabia has had the same form of government all that time.

Does that mean the current form of government is the best form to tap Saudi Arabia’s potential? Of course not.

We will never know what Monarchy led Iran would have looked like today or to go further back an Iran that didn’t have a coup that overthrew Mossadegh would have looked like today.

The current form of government is what we have and any changes that should be made should come within and over time.

Syria and Libya are prime examples of what happens when certain elements in population think that change can come overnight.

 

[aryobarzan]

What about electric vehicles? Europe is going to be a huge market for them and that's incentive for companies to spend insane amounts of money on R&D to develop them further and make them widespread.

I don't think oil will be what it is now 15-20 years later and we must prepare for it.

Those electric vehicles need to charge using electricity which is produced by power plants that use fossil fuel..so you just shifted burden of energy from gas stations to power plants..yes you do save some energy by doing that but unless Europe and Asia goes big way nuclear the fossil fuels are going to be kings for foreseeable future (hint..solar and wind ..boutiques energy sources and not in the same league as nuclear).

 

[TheImmortal]

Those electric vehicles need to charge using electricity which is produced by power plants that use fossil fuel..so you just shifted burden of energy from gas stations to power plants..yes you do save some energy by doing that but unless Europe and Asia goes big way nuclear the fossil fuels are going to be kings for foreseeable future (hint..solar and wind ..boutiques energy sources and not in the same league as nuclear).

Many power plants are actually powered by natural gas. The issue is while natural gas is clean burning, the plants smoke stacks release carbon during the power generation process and many do not have the carbon recapture tech in their smoke stacks to prevent the carbon from leaking into atmosphere. Or else natural gas plants can be a viable short to medium range solution until next gen power tech like fusion reach market.

Future of power generation is fusion tech. Europe has one of the worlds only prototype reactors (of which Iran is part of the project) and many start ups are entering the space with ingenious designs or solutions to the decades old fusion problem.

The sun is powered by fusion, stars in this universe are powered by fusion. The answer is to follow what the universe found to be the most logical form of energy generation.

 

[QWECXZ]

Those electric vehicles need to charge using electricity which is produced by power plants that use fossil fuel..so you just shifted burden of energy from gas stations to power plants..yes you do save some energy by doing that but unless Europe and Asia goes big way nuclear the fossil fuels are going to be kings for foreseeable future (hint..solar and wind ..boutiques energy sources and not in the same league as nuclear).

As you mentioned, there are other non-fossil fuels that can generate electricity. + Fossil fuel does not mean oil. Natural gas and coal are fossil fuels too.
France is already planning to expand its nuclear reactors.
The US generates only 60% of its electricity from fossil fuels. Nuclear energy and renewables account for 40%. Interestingly enough, the share of renewables is 21% and the share of nuclear energy is 19%
Turkey itself is planning to invest in nuclear energy.

And as TheImmortal mentioned correctly, there's a chance, even though rather small, that we'll soon be able to tame the decades old problem of fusion reactors. China is making breakthroughs towards fusion reactors and China is the second largest consumer of oil after the United States.

There's a very good chance that oil prices will never see numbers above $50 per barrel after 2035. Maybe it'll even drop below $10 per barrel. Who knows?

 

[Stryker1982]

We will never know what Monarchy led Iran would have looked like today or to go further back an Iran that didn’t have a coup that overthrew Mossadegh would have looked like today.

Who knows what would've happened if the bastard Qajars did not kill Amir Kabir.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Oil based economy is not a good thing.

Saudi Arabia is a good example of it. They just buy everything with oil money.

People think its a progress but its not, Oil money is not forever.

All thing is producing goods in country. If a country can do it it became a great power.

Iran in 1979 was a oil based country look like Saudi Arabia and when oil have good price, had a good economy. Iran at that time was not better than south korea or turkey. Its just a fantasy

 

[TheImmortal]

. Iran at that time was not better than south korea or turkey. Its just a fantasy

Provide facts not your recollections (though you weren’t probably even born then).

In 1977, the last “normal” year before the revolution—1978 saw the start of unrest and strikes that ultimately brought down the monarchy—Iran’s economy was 26 percent larger than Turkey’s; 65 percent higher than Korea’s, and nearly 5.5 times the size of Vietnam’s.

Iran’s nominal GDP per capita was higher than its comparators: In 1980: Iran= $2,374; Turkey = $2,169; Korea = $1,711; and Vietnam = $514;