Iranian Chill Thread

[lydian fall]

 

[SalarHaqq]

So Raesi & his administration bare no responsibility for the current economic situation whatsoever ? It has been a year & 9 months since Raesi took office. You can't just blame the previous administration(s) & claim that neither Khamenei, who actually calls the shots, nor Raesi, bare any responsibility. The Iranian government could do alot of things to at least try & stabilize the economy. They could peg the Rial to commodities like Gold & OIl, they haven't done anything.

The Rohani administration ruined Iran's economy to the extent that some analysts estimate the damage can't be realistically undone before multiple years (more than five or six).

No, the Supreme Leader does not call any shots in daily economic management. Get your facts straight.

As said, there is a struggle going on as to what the government ought to do. Once you familiarize yourself with this domestic debate, you may comment on the administration's record and on why this or that measure was or wasn't implemented.

I'm not saying that Rohani's government doesn't bare any responsibility either. They placed too much emphasis on the JCPOA, but when the JCPOA was implemented inflation in Iran plummeted & Iran's GDP had double digit growth.

Mostly psychological short term effect as well as about 50 billion USD of freed frozen assets, nothing more.

Now, why don't you mention how merely two years after the JCPOA was implemented, Iran's GDP growth went negative? Why are you dismissing the fact that when Raisi took over, the previous administration's policies had caused inflation to reach around 30% already?

He literally determines all of the Iran's core policies. These direct policies have a direct effect on everything, economy, culture, foreign relations. As we saw with the Ahmadinejad spat, Khamenei can do whatever he wants & he can easily over rule the president anytime he chooses.

1) Setting guidelines does not equal determining policies.

2) Examples of the Leader's guidelines being ignored by politicians in charge literally abound.

3) No the Leader cannot do "whatever he wants". His maneuvering space is limited through a vast number of factors as well as through the Constitution. You're confusing Iran with some other government.

The currency just went from 270,000 vs the USD to 550,000 in a few months. Anything & everything, well over 90% of everything Iran needs to import has to be paid for in US Dollars, the worlds reserve currency. The economic situation is extremely bleak. Peoples buying power & living standards are rapidly declining.

Wages were raised in parallel.

Under the Islamic Republic people's purchasing power and living standards improved drastically as compared to the shah era, when Iran was a close ally of the USA. The current inflationary trend is temporary.

That's partially true, but not really. Turkey deployed militants in Libya & Azerbaijan, despite the vehement disapproval of NATO & the USA.

The GNA which Turkey supports in Libya is backed by the USA and the EU.

As for their alleged disapproval of the deployment of militants by Ankara, it's lip service.

Again Iran doesn't even share borders with Israel. If Iran simply boycotted them, they wouldn't care.

Iran's history pre-Revolution proves this wrong. Not only was Iran refraining from lending support to the Palestinian cause, she was actively cooperating with the zionists. Yet this was not enough for the latter. They chose to encroach upon Iran's sovereignty through their networks of influence. You don't need to border a country to come under its influence, that's what lobbies are designed for.

Good diplomacy and a pragmatic approach to foreign policy can go a very long way.

Iran's approach is the correct one.

Recently about 30 Israeli MPs in the Knesset (Israeli parliament) openly signed a letter calling for the balkanization of Iran. After consultation by Iranian opposition groups about 20 of them reversed their stance. Diplomacy & communication can often times be more effective than hateful slogans & threats.

If you believe that this proves Tel Aviv is no longer pursuing its objective of balkanizing Iran, I have a bridge to sell you.

Don't confuse PR and rhetoric tactics with actual policy.

Israel is only an enemy of Iran because the mullahs pose an existential threat to their existence & openly call for their annihilation. Any country in their situation would respond the same way.

The zionist regime is an enemy of Iran because of the domineering and imperialist nature of zionist ideology. Due to its inherent intolerance for truly independent, truly powerful nation-states in its neighborhood. As perfectly exemplified by the Bernard Lewis doctrine exhibited in the 1970's at the Moshe Dayan Center, as well as by the Oded Yinon strategy published in the early 1980's, which call for dismantling nations of the region across the board. A policy concretely implemented in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen over the past two decades.

Iran is calling for regime change in Occupied Palestine the same way as Washington used to call for regime change in the USSR. The same way as those resisting apartheid in South Africa were striving to replace that regime with a non-colonial one. Phrases such as "Iran is openly calling for their annihilation" are part of zionist discourse and designed to obfuscate the actual nature of Iranian policy, by falsely insinuating Iran is after the suppression of a people rather than a change in political power structures.

Tens of millions of people are living below the poverty line. Many of them being working class people. I think you're being overly optimistic about average peoples outlook towards the Islamic Republic. The country just went through 3 months of violent protests, which in some areas turned into armed uprisings. Recently there have been strikes/protests by teachers, pensioners & oil workers. The government is on the verge of firing a large number workers in the oil sector. Pensioners are saying that with the recent surge in inflation, their pensions only cover 10 days of their living expenses. I don't think that these people are too fond of the establishment.

What I stated is accurate, namely that the Islamic Revolution's support base mostly consists of working class people, whereas opposition to the IR is widespread among wealthy segments of society. None of what you cited disproves it.

Going on a strike or participating in protests does not imply advocating the downfall of the political order. As a matter of fact many of those who organize strikes remain loyal to the political system nonetheless, I could share concrete examples.

Countless nations all across the world have been subjected to imperialist / colonialist ambitions. For example Vietnam. Yet they don't constantly burn flags & chant hateful slogans. Again this completely annihilates Iran's tourism industry & tarnishes Iran's image globally.

Iranian resentment towards the imperial powers in question is justified. It's them who initiated hostilities, not the other way around. As long as they do not change their ways, no Iranian can be blamed for expressing their sentiment.

Also you can't expect the nations that are the subject of these sort of hateful antics to not perceive Iran as a major threat to their existence. The mullahs should not whine about sanctions as long as they condone & encourage this sort of hatemongering. You can't have your cake & eat it too as the saying goes.

No serious decision maker will base their policies on what types of slogans emanate from the opposite side. Equally fallacious is the suggestion that the USA regime would cease its hostility if Iranians citizens stopped chanting slogans against it. Be not naive.

The fact that you'd make a fuss about a handful of slogans heard in Iran and resort to terms such as "hatemongering" to describe them while at the same time leaving out the imperialist violence and oppression which led Iranians to adopt such an outlook in the first place, is quite telling.

South Africa is a completely different situation. The sanctions were backed by the USA, EU, UN & basically entire world.

It is not different from the point of view of those who were resisting on the ground, and were suffering from at least the same discrepancy in military power.

Also most multilateral sanctions against South Africa were implemented in 1985-1987, only four to six years before the abolition of apartheid, and most analysts agree their impact was rather limited considering Pretoria's proficiency at circumventing them.

Also the USA didn't impoverish itself trying to bring about change in South Africa like Iran has. America's stance on South Africa had very little to no effect on its economy. The same cannot be said about Iran.

Iran's economic challenges are not primarily due to sanctions.

That should be left up to the Palestinians/Arabs & Israelis to resolve by themselves. There are several large Arab countries that actually share borders with Israel. Iran should just boycott Israel, stop threatening them & focus on domestic affairs. Again tens of millions of Iranians, over 25 million by your count are living below the poverty line. How many Palestinians are there 5 million ?

46% of Iranians were living below the poverty line in 1977 despite an oil boom four years earlier. Even though the regime back then was not only enfeoffed to Washington but to Tel Aviv as well.

Also under the Islamic Republic, poverty was reduced from about 50% to some 18%. Ups and downs are inevitable regardless of Iran's foreign policy. Once the issue of inflation is fixed poverty will go down again.

And there are many who prefer being Israeli citizens. I've met them myself.

There are many more who want their country liberated from occupation.

Like I said, if the tables were turned the Palestinians wouldn't give Iranians a second though or even one penny.

Iran has a duty to resist the zionist regime because the latter's hostility stems from its imperialist nature, not from Iran's backing of the Palestinian cause.

During the Iran-Iraq war they sided with Saddam.

Who is 'they'? The actions of one organization should be equated to the opinion of an entire people?

They're just getting what they can out of Iran. If tomorrow the Saudis made them a better offer, they would ditch Iran in a split second.

Irrelevant. Iran's principled Resistance against imperial powers serves her own interests.

Also Apartheid South Africa in the end was brought down through diplomatic efforts & lobbying. Like I said, diplomacy can go a long way.

Sanctions are generally regarded as not having been all too effective.

It's the actions of local resistance groups, especially after the 1976 Soweto uprising, which retrospectively sealed the regime's fate. The resulting turmoil, governmental spending and taxes made South Africa less attractive for FDI. This was compounded by distortions on the labor market induced by apartheid legislation, as well as the fall of the Soviet Union which lifted the regime's inhibitions to negotiate with the "communist fifth column" as they used to perceive the ANC.

Diplomacy has nothing much to do with these factors. The lesson to draw from the South African example is that resistance ends up paying off.

Iran would be better off, ceasing its hateful rhetoric and using diplomacy & lobbying to bring about the desired results.

Must I quote all the hateful rhetoric against Iran coming out of the west and Isra"e"l? Again this one-sided focus is rather disturbing. Also Iranians focus on regimes, not on peoples. For ordinary folk there's nothing wrong with denouncing illegitimate or oppressive regimes in the most explicit terms.

Diplomacy was tried under Rohani. The regime in Washington demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt that it has zero interest in arriving at a balanced agreement with Iran.

Israel is not going anywhere as long as the USA & EU support them. Every time a rocket lands on Israelis, first of all the Israelis respond & kill 10 Palestinians for every 1 Israeli killed. Then the Israelis use the killing of their civilians to garner even more support from the west. The Israelis understand the value and power of image projection, diplomacy & lobbying. The people running the show in Iran don't seem to.

There's no possibility for Iran to replicate zionist lobbying, western regimes are structurally and ideologically tied to zionism at their very core. At best could Iran score some points here and there on this front, but not equal the impact of zionist lobbies.

Western regime policy towards the Palestinian dossier does not adequately reflect western public opinion. Zionist repression has actually been highly detrimental to Tel Aviv's image. The propaganda spread by zionist mouthpieces is aimed at damage control mostly.

If Iran's nuclear program were 100% peaceful with no intension to build weapons or acquire the capability for a breakout time, then Iran would not enrich above 5%.

Read up on the various civilian applications of uranium enriched to over 5%. There are even military applications other than nuclear weapons which require enriched uranium at between 50% and 90%, such as nuclear propulsion reactors used in submarines.

The fact is that the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), which Iran derives medical isotopes from, requires pellets of 20% enriched uranium.

Last but not least, uranium enriched above 5% can serve as a bargaining chip.

In short, it does not imply Iran is attempting to manufacture nuclear weapons at all.

Furthermore if Iran would cease burning flags, uttering threats & hateful rhetoric on a regular basis, then tens of millions of Iranians would not be living below the poverty line.

Hope this is supposed to be a joke.

I think that China, India & South Korea would beg to differ. China is surrounded by US bases & allies. India shares borders with China, whom they consider a belligerent, domineering power as well as a significant threat to their territorial integrity. South Korea, there's North Korea, backed by China

What does the above have to do with my point? Regardless of whether or not such a development would actually be in Iran's interest, zionists will use their lobbying power to prevent normalized relations between Washington and Iran. Which does not apply to China, nor to India, nor to south Korea.

And no the impact of sanctions cannot be completely overcome with adequate policies. The impact can be lessened through adequate policies, but the people in charge in Iran are not implementing such policies and as you can see with the inflation rates & rapidly depreciating currency.

As indicated, inflation has often been far lower after the Islamic Revolution. It will drop again and sanctions won't impede that.

Concerning adequate policies, there's a domestic debate going on as to what these should consist of - with radically diverging solutions being put forth by the different camps. You may issue judgements on the matter after you researched the topic in question.

Like I said, even if we accept 30%, that means 25 million Iranians are living below the poverty line. At the same time, that doesn't mean that the other 70% are doing just fine either. A significant portion are likely just above the poverty line & others are still facing extremely challenging situation.

That would apply to many countries including wealthy ones across the northern hemisphere.

Before the revolution the literacy rate was something like 65%

Wrong, literacy in Iran was of 43% at the time of the Islamic Revolution. 36% is the literacy rate given by the World Bank for the age group between 15 and 95. The 65% rate you mention related only to the urban population, a minority back then.

Sources:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS?locations=IR

Literacy in Iran: Before and after the Revolution

english.khamenei.ir

so of course there was more poverty.

And all that whilst Iran was a vassal to the USA. Close relations with western regimes are no economic panacea. QED.

but I wouldn't give the Islamic Republic all the credit for the increase either.

Because literacy in a country where education is essentially public, will somehow magically climb from 43% to 90% if not for successful government policies... Sure.

The literacy rate was already on an upward trajectory. Any graph showing Iran's literacy rate going going back 50 years clearly shows the upwards trend.

The pace of improvement has been far superior after the victory of the Islamic Revolution as compared to the western-allied Pahlavi regime.

Regardless, there has been progress made under the Islamic Republic, but that doesn't discount their current flaws or shortcomings either. Only through constructive criticism can human beings / institutions progress. And only by first taking responsibility for shortcomings or mistakes can changes be implemented. Unfortunately in Iran, there seems to be a trend among those in power to completely avoid all accountability in one way or another and people who criticize the powers that be often find themselves in difficult situations.

Truth is that Iran is allowing far greater political plurality than any western, liberal so-called "democracy" would. One of two main political factions in Iran has no loyalty to the foundations of the political system and is attempting to topple it from within, Gorbachev-style. There's no equivalent to this anywhere in the west.

They may be able to eventually reduce the poverty rate, although I don't see any indication of that now. However until the sanctions are removed Iran can never live up to its full economic potential. And the sanctions cannot be removed as long as the current core policies remain in place.

Sanctions will not be removed until Iran gives up her sovereignty and opens up for military aggression by dismantling her assets of deterrence (BM and drone power, regional allies). As shown by the experience of the JCPOA and the subsequent pre-conditions enumerated by Pompeo.

What this would ultimately lead to, is illustrated by the Libyan precedent.

 

[aryobarzan]

Sanctions will not be removed until Iran gives up her sovereignty and opens up for military aggression

This is BS "salar"...Sanctions will not be removed until Iran gives up active enmity with Israel

Mullahs are destroying Iran for this one single fu*king act which brings no benefit to Iran only loss.

Iran is not mullah's private property..Iran belongs to her people ...Stop this zionist obsession madness before it is too late.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

به نظر من نفت یه چیزیه که ایرانی ها رو از زمان قاجار عقب انداخته

ما باید بشیم چین خاورمیانه

ما باید بدون اتکا به نفت اقتصاد خودمون رو قوی بکنیم


به نظر من کسانی که این تیترها رو میزنن یه سری نفوذین که میخوان ایران رو از تمرکز به مسائل اصلی به حاشیه بکشونن و چند قطبی توی کشور ایجاد کنن

به نظر شما اگر چاقو رو بدن به کسی‌ و اون فرد به جای استفاده صحیح از چاقو با اون چاقو بزنه زنو بچه خودشو زخمی کنه
می‌شه بشینیم بگیم از همون اول اختراع و استفاده از چاقو چیز بیخودی بود ؟ببین چه بلایی سر زنو بچه این آدم اومد ؟

همین دیدگاه رو می‌شه بست داد به بیماری هلندی و طرفداران طرز فکری که منابع خدادادی که اتفاقا هم محدود هستند هم بسیار پر اهمیت از ریشه بد میدونند
خوب معلومه اگه کارو بدی به دسته‌ای که اصلا ذهنیت شون اینطوره خروجی‌ کار حتما ناقص در میاد

تاریخ نفت و استفاده موفق خیلی‌ از کشور‌ها از نفت یا منابع زیر زمینی‌ کاملا بر عکس این طرز فکره

به طور مثال همین کشور نروژ که دارای بزرگترین صندوق‌های سرمای گذاری با وجود جمعیت کم و تولید نسبتا زیاد نفت و گاز (نسبت به جمعیت این کشور ) یکی‌ از نمونه‌های موفق در استفاده از این منابع خدادادی هست
​

---

برادر من هنوز زخم ژاپن غرب آسیا شدن جاش درد می‌کنه چین پیشکش​

 

[SalarHaqq]

This is BS "salar"...Sanctions will not be removed until Iran gives up active enmity with Israel

So Pompeo was bluffing when he enumerated Wahington's pre-conditions for a deal? Don't think so.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/5/21/mike-pompeo-speech-what-are-the-12-demands-given-to-iran

These conditions go well beyond dropping support for the anti-zionist Resistance.

Also, enmity against free nations comes from zionists and their project for global domination. Iran being a special case, one with unparalleled civilizational depth, they want her out of the way first because Iran unlike many other nations actually has the potential to ruin their plans.

Mullahs are destroying Iran for this one single fu*king act which brings no benefit to Iran only loss.

Destroying? Your every contribution to this forum suggests otherwise. Until your recent turnabout, that is. Either way, choice is yours.

Iran is not mullah's private property..Iran belongs to her people ...Stop this zionist obsession madness before it is too late.

I would have to counter by saying, stop accepting the mainstream narrative peddled by those (BBC, Manoto etc) who want Iran destroyed.

In the past I explained to you in detail how and why zionism represents an existential threat to nations - all of them, but it seems you've gone over to dismissing those points as delusional. Fine. And yet, you're in Canada, a country fully under zionist yoke so you should be able to see what it implies: mass immigration, abusive sexualization of children, WW2 as the exclusive moral compass by which to gauge things, globalism and laying the groundwork for national dissolution into a universal republic, who do you think brought this about if not three or four dominant decision-making groups among which zionist elites, the others being masonic grandmasters and banksters i.e. those in whose hands real power rests in the west, beyond the pseudo-democratic charade?

Now I understand secular 'nationalists' have a thing for zionism (a corollary of their antagonism towards anything Islamic or Arab), and maybe above described conditions correspond to what you wish for Iran, but that's not a reason for others not to stand in the way of such a development. It's quite simple, Iran has a choice between two options: globalist dissolution of nationhood (and religion, although that may not be your concern), or resisting the latter. There's no third possibility because maniacal globalist oligarchs won't give you one. Resisting zionism is the national thing to do.

 

[Ich]

Yes, why should one get to eat and a room to live if he killed 25 people in a terrorattack

 

[Hack-Hook]

The Rohani administration ruined Iran's economy to the extent that some analysts estimate the damage can't be realistically undone before multiple years (more than five or six).

perfect excuse as always , all problem lies with previous government .
please vote for me for another round.
by the way it was the minister of previous government who bribed the reformist parliament with dignity and fidelity. let just say 100 of them at factory price

by the way wonder who come to parliament to defend him when he impeached while he was aware of the bribery several month sooner.
we didn't expect anything else from this guy BFF

 

[SalarHaqq]

perfect excuse as always , all problem lies with previous government .

Data and analyses speak for themselves so there's no excuse here.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Because literacy in a country where education is essentially public, will somehow magically climb from less than 50% to 90% if not for successful government policies... Sure.

after 45 year , wonder what percentage the literacy went up in last 45 year before revolution

Data and analyses speak for themselves so there's no excuse here.

data also show what raeesi government did to our country

 

[SalarHaqq]

by the way it was the minister of previous government who bribed the reformist parliament with dignity and fidelity. let just say 100 of them at factory price

Nothing to do with the topic at hand.

by the way wonder who come to parliament to defend him when he impeached while he was aware of the bribery several month sooner.
we didn't expect anything else from this guy BFF.

We didn't expect anything from a cabinet whose nuclear negotiating team was comprising a spy who sold information to the enemy.

after 45 year , wonder what percentage the literacy went up in last 45 year before revolution

At a slower pace, as said. Your US- and zionist-subservient shah could not hold a candle to the Islamic Republic.

data also show what raeesi government did to our country

No it doesn't. Economists concur that the effects of economic policies by and large manifest themselves after a couple of years. Plus, the damage done by Rohani's team is such that it will take years to curb, this was a conclusion reached by analysts before Raisi's term began. Last but not least, the intellectual monopoly of those same monetarist economists who counseled liberal administrations has its impact on the current administration as well.

 

[Hack-Hook]

We didn't expect anything from a cabinet whose nuclear negotiations team was comprising a spy who sold information to the enemy.

didn't knew raeesi cabinet nuclear negotiator had a spy thast sold information to enemy.

Nothing to do with the topic at hand.

show some person adherence to his talks

At a slower pace, as said.

are you sure

No it doesn't. Economists concur that the effects of economic policies by and large manifest themselves after a couple of years. Plus, the damage done by Rohani's team is such that it will take years to curb, this was a conclusion reached by analysts before Raisi's term began. Last but not least, the intellectual monopoly of those same monetarist economists who counseled liberal administrations has its impact on the current administration as well.

again previous government blah blah blah

 

[HGV]

No such thing. Inflation reached some 30% under the previous administration, up from significantly lower levels.

In the last 15 years in Iran when was inflation at its lowest?

View attachment 928027

There is more poverty in Iran today than in 2005, this is the success of the resistance economy / IRI in the last 20 years? And I wonder what was happening at the start of that chart that could have contributed to the very high poverty rate.

I don't think even IRI zealots can credibly claim that poverty would not be substantially lower under the counterfactual (no revolution).

 

[SalarHaqq]

didn't knew raeesi cabinet nuclear negotiator had a spy thast sold information to enemy.

Not Rai'sis, Rohani's nuclear negotiating team included a spy.

Abdolrasoul Dorri-Esfahani - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

show some person adherence to his talks

Still has nothing to do with the topic.

On top of being fake news to boot:

خبرگزاری فارس - حراست مجلس ادعای واگذاری خودرو به نمایندگان را تکذیب کرد/ هیات نظارت بر نمایندگان به موضوع ورود می‌کند

سخنگوی هیئت رئیسه مجلس گفت: در پی ادعای یک نماینده مبنی بر واگذاری ۷۵ خودروی شاسی بلند به نمایندگان مجلس در جریان استیضاح سال گذشته وزیر صمت، این موضوع از سوی حراست قوه مقننه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و کذب بودن آن مشخص شد.

www.farsnews.ir

are you sure

Yes I am sure.

Shah regime: 35% increase in 45 years. 35% increase in 58 years.

Islamic Republic: 46% increase in 44 years.

again previous government blah blah blah

I stated facts. If you prefer remaining oblivious to them that's your issue.

Excuses were made up by the Rohani administration, along the lines of "revolutionaries and Leadership did not allow us to sell out more of Iran's assets, hence why people did not reap the fruits of our policy of "normalization"".

---

In the last 15 years in Iran when was inflation at its lowest?

Your point? And how does it relate to mine?

There is more poverty in Iran today than in 2005, this is the success of the resistance economy / IRI in the last 20 years?

It's the success of Rohani's attempts to open up to the west. Resistance economy was never entirely implemented as it ought to have.

And I wonder what was happening at the start of that chart that could have contributed to the very high poverty rate.

Liberal (monetarist-inspired) policies by Hashemi.

I don't think even IRI zealots can credibly claim that poverty would not be substantially lower under the counterfactual (no revolution).

History-fiction is not a scientific discipline.

 

[HGV]

Your point? And how does it relate to mine?

You didn't answer the question

It's the success of Rohani's attempts to open up to the west. Resistance economy was never entirely implemented as it ought to have.

Rouhani is responsible for the last 20 years? What is the leader doing in all these years, either you think he is impotent or incapable of guiding Iran to better outcomes than the worst poverty rates in 20 years

Liberal (monetarist-inspired) policies by Hashemi.

Or maybe a war

History-fiction is not a scientific discipline.

Since when do Islamist zealots care about scientific disciplines

Counterfactuals are a useful comparative tool used in all sorts of analyses

 

[jamahir]

"Iranian Chill Thread"

Yeah, chill with the mullah-battered head of this pretty one :

Now I wait for @SalarHaqq to tag mods to expel me from this thread too.

It's the success of Rohani's attempts to open up to the west. Resistance economy was never entirely implemented as it ought to have.

But I thought all those burqas, robes and furious prayers will remove hunger from the stomachs of people and remove the helplessness from those Iranis who want to achieve something in life but see all those money-rich mullahs living lavishly. Resistance Economy in full action.