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Last week, this column argued that while there may be no reason to get excited about the ongoing series of talks between Iran and the West, there are reasons to believe that this time it may be different. The next question, therefore, is what should Pakistan do about it?
Perhaps--in the context of Taliban issue-the first affirmation for Pakistan is the idea that talking is not a sign of weakness, nor is it a sign of giving in. Indeed, as Asad Umar of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf puts it, you don hold peace talks with your friends. You may punish your enemies as you like and as you must, but that should not preclude you from talking to them.
The second takeaway from the US-Iran talks is that all may not be lost so far as Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is concerned. This column had earlier asserted (See: "IP gas pipeline--dream over?" dated Nov 1, 2013) that it would be best if Pakistani government tries to lock in options other than the IP gas pipeline.
Yet, it would be heedless if Pakistani authorities do not capitalise on any window of opportunity, if and when there is Iran-US rapprochement--and especially if the US eases sanctions on Iran. These may be big ifs; but then politics, by its very nature, is not static, and one wouldn want to be caught unprepared when the winds of change start blowing.
Pakistan wouldn be the first non-Anglo Saxon, or the first developing country, to be developing strong economic ties with Iran. Irans trade with Turkey stood at about $5.5 billion in 2009, whereas with China it had a trade of nearly $21 billion. The same year, Irans exports (mostly energy) to India were $9.6 billion against imports of $2.1 billion.
And here in lies a related concern. It is true that Indo-Iran relations had turned a tad sour when the former had to vote against Iran (under US pressure) at the IAEA in February 2006 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for nuclear non-compliance. But, it is also true that long-term goals of both countries align when it comes to securing interests in Afghanistan.
India has helped Iran construct the Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan near the Iranian border and also invested in the Iranian port at Chabahar hoping that it will allow it to gain trade access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, according to a study by Council of Foreign Relations.
This means Pakistan step up its game when it comes to Pak-Aghan trade as well as Afghan transit trade. Failing to do so, could potentially give way to India to chip away Pakistans export market in Afghanistan at one end. And at the other end, it could help Iran to become the preferred transit trade route for Afghani traders.
According to a briefing paper for Planning Commission of Pakistan prepared by Dr Vaqar Ahmed, Iran had 25 percent share of Afghanistans total transit trade in 2010, whereas Pakistans share was 34 percent--meaning the gap is not too big. The matter of concern is that Afghan transit traders are not happy with Pakistani transit trade policies, procedures and facilities, especially via Chaman border.
A 2012 study by Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chambers of Commerce and Industry revealed that "traders, representatives of transport firms and border agents in Pakistan hold a consensus view that despite proximity, Pakistan may lose its transit trade to other neighbours, as the main alternative Iran offers better infrastructure, simplified procedures, lesser costs, fewer check posts and lesser corruption".
Currently Pakistan has an advantage over Iran in terms of Afghan transit trade, since major shipping lines avoid going to Iran, whereas sanctions have left a weak banking and financial system in the country. But, if US-Iran relations start turning for the better, Pakistan could potentially lose its advantageous position, if it maintains complacency.
At this point in time, the likelihood of a positive outcome of US-Iran talks may be small and conditional in the short term, but it will have far reaching implications in the long run. And, if Pakistan is thinking of becoming a trade conduit then it must keep a close eye on ongoing developments in the region.
Iran talks - Pakistan perspective | Business Recorder
Perhaps--in the context of Taliban issue-the first affirmation for Pakistan is the idea that talking is not a sign of weakness, nor is it a sign of giving in. Indeed, as Asad Umar of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf puts it, you don hold peace talks with your friends. You may punish your enemies as you like and as you must, but that should not preclude you from talking to them.
The second takeaway from the US-Iran talks is that all may not be lost so far as Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is concerned. This column had earlier asserted (See: "IP gas pipeline--dream over?" dated Nov 1, 2013) that it would be best if Pakistani government tries to lock in options other than the IP gas pipeline.
Yet, it would be heedless if Pakistani authorities do not capitalise on any window of opportunity, if and when there is Iran-US rapprochement--and especially if the US eases sanctions on Iran. These may be big ifs; but then politics, by its very nature, is not static, and one wouldn want to be caught unprepared when the winds of change start blowing.
Pakistan wouldn be the first non-Anglo Saxon, or the first developing country, to be developing strong economic ties with Iran. Irans trade with Turkey stood at about $5.5 billion in 2009, whereas with China it had a trade of nearly $21 billion. The same year, Irans exports (mostly energy) to India were $9.6 billion against imports of $2.1 billion.
And here in lies a related concern. It is true that Indo-Iran relations had turned a tad sour when the former had to vote against Iran (under US pressure) at the IAEA in February 2006 to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for nuclear non-compliance. But, it is also true that long-term goals of both countries align when it comes to securing interests in Afghanistan.
India has helped Iran construct the Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan near the Iranian border and also invested in the Iranian port at Chabahar hoping that it will allow it to gain trade access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, according to a study by Council of Foreign Relations.
This means Pakistan step up its game when it comes to Pak-Aghan trade as well as Afghan transit trade. Failing to do so, could potentially give way to India to chip away Pakistans export market in Afghanistan at one end. And at the other end, it could help Iran to become the preferred transit trade route for Afghani traders.
According to a briefing paper for Planning Commission of Pakistan prepared by Dr Vaqar Ahmed, Iran had 25 percent share of Afghanistans total transit trade in 2010, whereas Pakistans share was 34 percent--meaning the gap is not too big. The matter of concern is that Afghan transit traders are not happy with Pakistani transit trade policies, procedures and facilities, especially via Chaman border.
A 2012 study by Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chambers of Commerce and Industry revealed that "traders, representatives of transport firms and border agents in Pakistan hold a consensus view that despite proximity, Pakistan may lose its transit trade to other neighbours, as the main alternative Iran offers better infrastructure, simplified procedures, lesser costs, fewer check posts and lesser corruption".
Currently Pakistan has an advantage over Iran in terms of Afghan transit trade, since major shipping lines avoid going to Iran, whereas sanctions have left a weak banking and financial system in the country. But, if US-Iran relations start turning for the better, Pakistan could potentially lose its advantageous position, if it maintains complacency.
At this point in time, the likelihood of a positive outcome of US-Iran talks may be small and conditional in the short term, but it will have far reaching implications in the long run. And, if Pakistan is thinking of becoming a trade conduit then it must keep a close eye on ongoing developments in the region.
Iran talks - Pakistan perspective | Business Recorder
