Iran Sanctions: Why Pakistan Won't Help

[BanglaBhoot]

Iran's neighbors could play a decisive role in determining whether any sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions are effective — and one Iran neighbor from whom the U.S. should expect little support on the issue is Pakistan. Ostensibly Washington's key ally in the troubled region, Pakistan also maintains a longtime (if sometimes fraught) friendship with Tehran. And as President Asif Ali Zardari's government moves to strengthen ties with its neighbor in a bid to enhance Pakistan's economic prospects, Islamabad is keen to sit out the nuclear dispute. While Pakistan insists that it is not actively encouraging Iran to join it in the élite club of nuclear-weapons states, officials in Islamabad appear decidedly untroubled by developments across its southwestern border.

"The government of Pakistan, and the average Pakistani citizen, looks at Iran as a friendly nation," Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister, Malik Amad Khan, told TIME in an interview. After Iran, Pakistan has the second largest Shi'ite Muslim population; its 33 million Shi'ites constitute nearly double the number in Iraq. Before the 1979 Islamic revolution, both countries were members of the anti-Soviet CENTO security pact, and despite the Islamic Republic's aggressive anti-U.S. stance, Pakistan became one of the first countries to recognize Ayatullah Khomeini's regime.

Pakistan's role in Iran's nuclear development has been more than passive spectator, however; Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's atom bomb, admitted five years ago that he passed nuclear secrets to Tehran and Libya. The disclosures stung Islamabad and forced then President Pervez Musharraf to act against Khan, before issuing a pardon and confining the proliferator, who is still hailed as a national hero in Pakistan, to house arrest.

Last month, A.Q. Khan briefly emerged from his hillside villa in Islamabad after the Lahore High Court lifted restraints on his movement. (Those restrictions have since been discreetly reimposed.) Unrepentant about his role in leading the world's largest proliferation network, Khan appeared in a rare television interview to cheer Iran's nuclear program. "If Iran succeeds in acquiring nuclear technology, we will be a strong bloc in the region to counter international pressure," Khan told the interviewer. "Iran's nuclear capability will neutralize Israel's power," he added, adopting the pan-Islamist rhetoric that has endeared him to conservative opinion in Pakistan.

Amad Khan, Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister, dismisses suggestions of lingering Pakistani support for Iran's nuclear program. "We have a three-tier system that prevents proliferation," he told TIME. But Islamabad is happy for Tehran to acquire nuclear capability for energy uses. "Since Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, if it requires capability for energy, we have no problems with that." The Deputy Foreign Minister added that Pakistan sees Iran as a "responsible" nation and therefore "doesn't expect Iran to pursue nuclear-weapons capability."

The Deputy Foreign Minister declined to comment on how Islamabad would react in the event of sanctions or tougher forms of pressure on Iran. Instead, Islamabad's focus remains on an "enhanced level of engagement" that can draw Iranian support for Pakistan's "energy, trade and communications" sectors. The new relationship with Iran has already seen a 28% rise in trade, according to Deputy Minister Khan, and with chronic shortages of electricity supply, Islamabad is eagerly awaiting the construction of a decades-old proposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline — plans for which remain doubtful.

Pakistan's weak civilian government also views Iranian influence as a potential foil to that of Saudi Arabia, which has stronger ties with the opposition. Government officials privately accuse the Saudis of being prejudiced toward Zardari because of his Shi'ite background. (Shi'ites are an embattled minority in Saudi Arabia, whose dominant Wahabi strand of Islam deems them heretics.) But Pakistan's response to Iran will ultimately be determined by the all-powerful military establishment. And, analysts say, the army is a great deal more wary of Iran's regional aspirations. "They are not really allies," says Christine Fair of the RAND Corp. in Washington. "There is a misguided assumption that just because Pakistan gave Iran nuclear technology that they have some kind of strategic alliance." That deal, analysts say, arose out of former army chief General Mirza Aslam Beg's wish to "create problems for the U.S."

"Since then," says Fair, "Iran and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over a range of issues." The Pakistani security establishment is wary of Tehran's relationship with India, and it suspects Iran of allowing its territory to be used by Indian-backed Baluch separatist fighters in southwestern Pakistan. Tehran, for its part, has repeatedly complained to Islamabad about cross-border attacks mounted by Jundullah, a shadowy Baluch militant group that uses Pakistani Baluchistan as a staging ground for attacks inside Iran. On May 28, the group claimed responsibility for a bombing that killed at least 20 in the border town of Zahedan. Iran and Pakistan have also been at loggerheads over Afghanistan — Tehran has backed the Karzai government, and Pakistan is seen as continuing to covertly support the Taliban — and over the perception that Pakistan is not doing much to stem anti-Shi'ite sectarian terrorism by extremist groups on its own soil.

Even then, a number of different domestic political factors will keep Pakistan on the sidelines of any showdown over Iran's nuclear program. With anti-Americanism running high — an August poll by the Pew Research Center revealed that 64% of Pakistanis "regard [the U.S.] as an enemy" — backing new sanctions against Iran could provoke a domestic backlash. "It would be seen as Pakistan against the Muslim world," says analyst Fair.

A related but deeper fear is that Iran has the means to make life exceedingly unpleasant for Pakistan should it side with Tehran's enemies. Already struggling with a militant campaign that has ravaged the northwest and the tribal areas and terrorized major cities, Pakistan, analysts say, can ill-afford a revival of sectarian violence that plagued the country during the 1980s, when Saudi-backed Sunni militant groups clashed with Iranian-backed Shi'ite ones as part of a regional proxy war. Says Ayesha Siddiqa, an independent security analyst: "It isn't just Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan where Iran can create trouble if it wants."

Why Pakistan Won't Help on Iran - TIME

 

[Omar1984]

Pakistan's relation with Iran has improved in recent years. Trade between the two contries has crossed more than a billion dollars and now that Pakistan is connected to Iran through railway, the two nations will become more closer.

When US placed sanctions on Pakistan in the 90's, China and Saudi Arabia helped Pakistan. Iran also has support in the region, especially from Central Asian countries and Turkey.

Pakistan should keep close friendly relations with Iran because Iran and China are the two neighbors Pakistan has no major problem with. It would be in Pakistan's best interest to keep good friendly relations with Iran.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

I see Iran as a friendly country. They aren't too close to india anymore. india launched israeli satellite, cowered out of pipeline deal to please americans, and even voted against iran at UN regarding it's uranium enrichment program. We have converging and diverging interests in the region but we should maintain friendly contact with them. Iran is a friend of Pakistan. Our armies should do anti narcotic, human trafficking and counter terrorist exercises together since we both share some similar problems

 

[Omar1984]

I think Pakistan should help Iran make contacts with Saudi Arabia so their relations improve like Pakistan helped US make contacts with China in the 1970's.

 

[r3alist]

guys, can we really trust iran?

remember they have always kind of sucked up to the indian cash cow and have no problem in doing so over the interests of pakistan.

it seems now iran has no other option but to create **some** links with pakistan, as if to say indian did not work out so now we are stuck with you.


also, another important issue is that iran favours the indians on the kashmir issue in the organisation of islamic countries and is always very very friendly to indian business interests, thus iran are acting as indias front to the wider islamic world, how can you trust such a nation?

iran and india share an interest in being anti-taliban, thus iran and india agree upon the idea that pakistan is not a good force in afghanistan and thus sahre long term goals in the shape of the region, whose to say the iranians are not helping the indians in afghanistan?


when india voted against iran on the nuclear issue the iranians were not angry and nor did they engage in any tit for that that i know of, instead they were "hurt", they thought "india was their friend" - i find these statements quite revealing.

people often put weight on pakistan/irans shared culture, but infact iranians seem to place great value in the fact that both iran/india are ancient civilisations and india is an important place for parsi's and zorastrians - pakistan is a sunni nation.


infact, i think pakistani's need to start looking past the blinkers of us being "muslim" and shared culture and look at the realities, all of the above tells me that we must be cautious in our approach towards iran if they are sooooo india friendly.

 

[graphican]

Why Pakistan Won't Help on Iran - TIME

Articles by TIME are not credible enough to be read or discussed. Times, Fox and Sky only like to see the world through the eyes of Zion and can never be impartial, reasonable or sensible. So listen to them to know what is cooking in the minds of Zionists but their words are not worthy enough to be discussed.

 

[Developereo]

guys, can we really trust iran?

This thread will answer many questions:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...31802-pakistan-iran-turkey-confederation.html

Briefly, Pakistan and Iran have been very close historically. The relationship only died after Zia (Sunni) and Ayatollahs (Shia) came into power. The only reason Iran got close to India is because they think we are a Saudi pawn. And we are. All this Wahabi extremism in Pakistan and Afghanistan is funded by the Arabs. I have nothing agains the Arabs. In fact we should develop maximum friendship both with Arabs and Iran and, as Omar1984 says, maybe even help build bridges between them.

We should make it clear that we are neither pro-Sunni nor pro-Shia. A strong friendship with Iran will automatically kick out India of Afghanistan and bring Afghanistan on our side.

 

[r3alist]

This thread will answer many questions:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...31802-pakistan-iran-turkey-confederation.html

Briefly, Pakistan and Iran have been very close historically. The relationship only died after Zia (Sunni) and Ayatollahs (Shia) came into power. The only reason Iran got close to India is because they think we are a Saudi pawn. And we are. All this Wahabi extremism in Pakistan and Afghanistan is funded by the Arabs. I have nothing agains the Arabs. In fact we should develop maximum friendship both with Arabs and Iran and, as Omar1984 says, maybe even help build bridges between them.

We should make it clear that we are neither pro-Sunni nor pro-Shia. A strong friendship with Iran will automatically kick out India of Afghanistan and bring Afghanistan on our side.

yes thank you, i contributed to that thread.


i do not agree that the only reason iran is close to india is because of saudi influence.

you need to look at things through their eyes - india is a rich country, with a big energy demand, there is plenty of profit and opportunity there.

then with this will come greater political and regional influence, iran is clearly looking for this benefit.

in one sense the US have done pakistan a favour by pressuring the indians to vote against the iranians, the indians have demonstrated that they are almost in the pocket of the anglo zionists which should lead to their isolation from the wider islamic world.

another key point, which we all ignore, is that iran and india share a similar vision for afghanistan, we are the enemy in this regard.

but the iranians, like used whores always hope their ex-lovers will come back to them, this is the impression i get.

if there are no shared strategic interests in key issues then what are the chances of their being a close partnership?

lets wake up please before it bites us.

 

[graphican]

infact, i think pakistani's need to start looking past the blinkers of us being "muslim" and shared culture and look at the realities, all of the above tells me that we must be cautious in our approach towards iran if they are sooooo india friendly.

Iran is in need of India but they are in need of Pakistan more. Their strategic importance is with us not with India. Likewise our security doctrine advocates to have only one hostile nation at max and that's one reason we have cooperated with Iran and Afghanistan every means possible and our doctrine is still the same.

I am not able to get any recent resource but according to my learning, some 40% of Iranian oil is either used by India or processed by India. Moreover they dont have any contentious issues between the two and the only matter of differences is their relationship with Israel. But these differences are secondary to both of them because their economic reasons come first.

But a visible deflection in their policy for each other is due in near future. After increased American influence on India, Iran is going to be sidelined. Although India and Iran are economically connected, ambitious Indians would look for strategics cooperation with USA seeking weaponry and advanced equipment plus leverages in trade towards the west for which they will have to sideline Iran at one stage or the other. Additionally, the increased resistance between Iran and Israel and the nuclear issues would give Iran another reason to Ally with Pakistan instead of India. I dont know how authentic this is but I was told by one Military personal that Pakistan and Iran has war-pact for unrestricted supply of oil and resources in return for favors we did to them in the past.

If you guys have read the predictions of Niamatullah Shah Wali, you would know he mentioned Iran will be a Military Ally with Pakistan and I think we are well set and rolling along that road nicely. Trade route with Iran has been established, economic ties are getting stronger and both nations are feeling need to stand together against the common-threats.

 

[r3alist]

Iran is in need of India but they are in need of Pakistan more. Their strategic importance is with us not with India. Likewise our security doctrine advocates to have only one hostile nation at max and that's one reason we have cooperated with Iran and Afghanistan every means possible and our doctrine is still the same.

what do the iranians gain from us which is so crucial to them?

i dont personally see it, one contentious issue is afghanistan, they are against us on that and with india on that?

iran do not have to be hostile per se to work against us.

But a visible deflection in their policy for each other is due in near future. After increased American influence on India, Iran is going to be sidelined. Although India and Iran are economically connected, ambitious Indians would look for strategics cooperation with USA seeking weaponry and advanced equipment plus leverages in trade towards the west for which they will have to sideline Iran at one stage or the other. Additionally, the increased resistance between Iran and Israel would give Iran another reason to Ally with Pakistan instead of India.

yes, i think i acknowledged this but with the caveat that we should not forget that india were the first choice, and india had to isolate iran for iran to see the light.

Trade route with Iran has been established, economic ties are getting stronger and both nations are feeling need to stand together against the common-threats.

what common threats?

for the iranians its the saudi's and israeli's.

they bend over for the indians to our detriment, lets stick to facts please.

 

[Hutchroy]

I see Iran as a friendly country. They aren't too close to india anymore. india launched israeli satellite, cowered out of pipeline deal to please americans, and even voted against iran at UN regarding it's uranium enrichment program. We have converging and diverging interests in the region but we should maintain friendly contact with them. Iran is a friend of Pakistan. Our armies should do anti narcotic, human trafficking and counter terrorist exercises together since we both share some similar problems

I will only comment about India not joining the Iran–Pakistan Pipeline deal :

1. The pricing of the Gas : It is 78% of the corresponding Oil Price i.e. at Oil being US$ 70 per Barrel the Price of Gas equates to about US$ 9.5 per MMBTU. At the moment “spot” price is under US$ 4. India is concluding long term LNG contracts at much lower levels than US$ 9.5 per MMBTU..

2. In addition India will have to pay for “pipeline use” which would equate to possibly US$ One per MMBTU.

3. India now prefers Qatar as well as Iranian Gas either in LNG form or by a Deep Sea pipeline. Here the cost of constructing the pipeline will be twice the cost of the land pipeline but then there are no additional dues to be paid.

4. A land pipeline is extremely difficult to insure. As such India will have to depend on a Pakistani Sovereign Guarantee. You can work out that by yourself.

5. With all the goodwill at heart, Pakistan cannot depend on a safe passage for the pipeline through Pakistan itself and for this reason the Pakistan Army does not want Pakistan to receive gas via a land pipeline from Iran.

I am sure you are aware of the three or four contracts between Iran and China for import of LNG from Iran. One of these contracts was for 10 Million tons annually of LNG for 25 Years. Others were AFAIK for about 5 Million tons of LNG annually.

To date no LNG is being exported by Iran and I have heard that all contracts signed by Iran with China are still awaiting approval by the Iranian parliament. This does seem preposterous as the contracts were finalized possibly 3 to 5 years ago.

 

[greatsequence]

Iran can not be trusted a lot of sunni shia chaos in Pakistan was linked to iran. As long as the current regime of iran is there iran can hardly be friendly with any of the muslim countries.

 

[ghamai]

Iran can not be trusted a lot of sunni shia chaos in Pakistan was linked to iran. As long as the current regime of iran is there iran can hardly be friendly with any of the muslim countries.

agreed. iran only thinks abt shias 'nd they're still very close to india 'nd always 've been. i do respect iran for being an very powerful islamic nation but we shud never trust them. they can be friends but not trustworthy

 

[Developereo]

Let's start with Afghanistan because that is actually the easier one.

i dont personally see it, one contentious issue is afghanistan, they are against us on that and with india on that?

The proxy fight in Afghanistan was between pro-Pakistan Taliban and pro-India Northern Alliance, as you know. By itself the Iranians don't have a preference between them. It was only after the Taliban became infected with Saudi Wahabi extremism that Iran opposed them and helped the NA. Iran doesn't want to be encircled by Saudi puppets.

We need to remove Wahabi influence from the Taliban anyway, for our own good. We don't want Wahabi extremism in Pakistan or anywhere near us. Once the Taliban renounce Wahabism, Iran will have no reason to oppose them, and the Iran/India alliance there will fall apart.

india were the first choice,

Actually, back until the 80s, Pakistan was their first choice.

Your points about India having a 7x bigger market than Pakistan are valid, but that reality is there no matter which third country we talk about. Do you think China or KSA don't see a 7x bigger market in India?

The trick is to identify and exploit areas where Iran's strategic interests conflict maximally with India's and are aligned with ours.

The obvious one is Israel. Iran is the only Muslim country that actually opposes Israel; the Arabs just make empty noises and are impotent anyway. By contrast, Israel claims to be India's most reliable weapons supplier. Israel is the only country that actively helped India in a war (Kargil) against Pakistan.

The other issue, obviously, is the US. Everyone knows that our relationship with the US was forced upon us and the high degree of anti-American sentiment in the public.

We can surely leverage these strategic advantages over India if we can shed our Saudi yoke and convince Iran that we are a moderate Muslim nation where Sunnis and Shias can coexist.

 

[graphican]

what do the Iranians gain from us which is so crucial to them?

i dont personally see it, one contentious issue is Afghanistan, they are against us on that and with India on that?

Iran do not have to be hostile per se to work against us.

I think Sir Abdul Qadeer has put some light on the favors Pakistan has offered. After considering India, Saudia Arabia, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan scenario, had we felt Iran even the slightest threat, we wouldn't have cooperated to the level and specially for something that could be detrimental for Pakistan. So may be in our personal opinions, we disagree on Iran being a friend or not a friend but strategically Pakistan's actions have shown we are not in danger from them.

yes Afghanistan is one contentious issue but I think Pakistan is acting or at least trying to act Neutral at the moment. We have recently signed few agreements with Iran which were not possible if the two sides had some different polarity.

yes, i think i acknowledged this but with the caveat that we should not forget that india were the first choice, and india had to isolate iran for iran to see the light.

I agree, I think India has shown some color of it by opposing Iran over the Nuclear Issue and Iranians are not stupid, I suppose.

what common threats?

for the iranians its the saudi's and israeli's.

they bend over for the indians to our detriment, lets stick to facts please.

We have a history of contention with Israel and so does Iran. Pakistan army had taken active participation in the war against them and we have learned who is supporting BLA and related terrorist activities in Pakistan. If you want to mention 3 enemies of Pakistan, you would need to think for the third one but first two would be India, Israel and probably USA for the third one. If you name 3 enemies of Iran, you will find it shares two countries from our list. May be USA is not considered an enemy by the pro-US government but people of the country have Identified USA as a threat and so do people of Iran.

I am not of view to put too much wait on Pakistan-Iran friendship at the moment but I see both Nations will have more reasons to stay connected and get close to each other in near future.