How likely will a nuclear deal be with Raisi?
IMO, he is pro-JCPOA (a revised JCPOA) and he will continue the talks.
The situation is too bad for us to stop the nuclear talks...
I've also seen people more knowledgeable than me just keeping quiet and waiting for things to settle down. so I think we shall see?
What we know for sure is that:
1) Unlike the Rohani administration, President-elect Raisi will closely follow the Leader's guidelines. Therefore, he's not going to return to a full implementation of the JCPOA unless and until the regime in Washington does the same. Neither will Iran agree to a step-by-step return to initial obligations. What is more, even if the US reinstates the deal, most likely Iran will first want to verify whether Washington is actually going to abide by its obligations this time around.
In other terms, this will all primarily depend on the US, not so much on President Raisi. Washington's willingness to take the decisive first step stands to debate though.
2) President-elect Raisi has made it clear that unlike the current government, he's not going to make Iran's progress and development dependent on sanctions removal. Experience has demonstrated that viewing sanctions removal as the sole starting point to development, like the Rohani administration has been doing, is illusory. In parallel to this, the manifold achievements of Khatam ol-Anbiya Garrison and similar institutions show that the way forward is to make Iran immune to sanctions by concentrating on domestic capabilities and potentials, rather than to pin one's hopes on the whims of hostile western regimes.
When questioned about the JCPOA at his first press conference as the President-elect, hajj Raisi left little doubt that whether or not the US agrees to return to the nuclear deal is not his priority. He will launch numerous measures to improve Iran's economy, regardless of what Washington chooses to do.
A change of outlook towards neutralizing sanctions thanks to the development of a domestic Resistance economy is needed, and Ebrahim Raisi will bring with him this new paradigm.
On this important matter, see following links:
https://ir.sputniknews.com/opinion/202106207977478
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www.mashreghnews.ir
3) Sanctions-induced pressure on working classes will largely be relieved thanks to the comprehensive welfare programs announced by Raisi. Contrary to the Rohani administration, which swore by absolute free market economics and which proceeded to reduce social welfare spending (such as Maskane Mehr social housing construction, which was completely stopped by Rohani's team), President-elect Raisi believes in public assistance to the poor.
This will appease a considerable segment of the popular classes, which had become dissatisfied during the Rohani years because of the deterioration of their social-economic situation, and that includes people who took part in the 2017 and 2019 riots.