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Rajeev Deshpande,
TNN | Nov 26, 2013, 04.31AM IST
NEW DELHI: India's hopes to access cheaper oil after the US-led interim nuclear accord with Iran may prove a temporary advantage as the Persian Gulf nation emerges from isolation and begins demanding full dollar payments.
The oil ministry's calculation that $8.5 billion can be saved if India imports an additional 11 million tonnes of Iranian crude might look feasible, but India's appeal as a customer will wane if the nuclear deal holds and sanctions ease.
Though the deal faces formidable challenges with Saudi Arabia and Israel angrily rejecting it as "appeasement", and both Iran and the US not making irreversible commitments, India may have to game for an unshackled Iran.
This might mean Iran's current need for allies and commercial partners and preparedness to accept rupee payments for its crude might change once it progressively emerges from a deep freeze of more than three decades.
In the immediate run, India will be relieved that problems with re-insurance of Iran oil while shipping and refining can be addressed by the four-page agreement signed by Iran and a strict six-monthly monitoring of sanctions could ease.
But the larger scenario where Iran reasserts itself in the Persian Gulf and becomes a factor fromAfghanistan to Syria requires a more nuanced reading of India's options if US ties with Teherando gather pace.
Sources said India will need to balance relations with an emergent Iran looking to trade its nuclear programme for strategic dividends with its interests in Arab states that host an estimated seven million Indians pursuing their livelihoods.
There is a convergence over the need to check the Taliban in Afghanistan, but as Iran seeks what it considers its rightful place in the world, Indian diplomacy will be tested as ancient rivalries acquire a new edge.
Saudis view Tehran as a Shia power whose civilizational claims and technological progress, along with a large population, pose a threat in theological and strategic terms. The possibility of Iran becoming a major US investment unites the Saudis and Israel.
India cannot see these faultlines as merely theoretical as the US is clearly tempted by not having to commit enormous resources in keeping Iran shackled and this clearly calls for a more innovative approach from New Delhi.
The outlines of the accord that make it more difficult for Iran to weaponize its nuclear programme suit India's interest in not having another nuclear armed state in its neighbourhood.
Iran will need much more time to make a device once it implements conditions like not enriching uranium beyond 5% and abandoning plans to reprocess plutonium and a build a heavy water reactor.
Iran nuclear deal may end cheap oil supply for India - The Times of India
TNN | Nov 26, 2013, 04.31AM IST
NEW DELHI: India's hopes to access cheaper oil after the US-led interim nuclear accord with Iran may prove a temporary advantage as the Persian Gulf nation emerges from isolation and begins demanding full dollar payments.
The oil ministry's calculation that $8.5 billion can be saved if India imports an additional 11 million tonnes of Iranian crude might look feasible, but India's appeal as a customer will wane if the nuclear deal holds and sanctions ease.
Though the deal faces formidable challenges with Saudi Arabia and Israel angrily rejecting it as "appeasement", and both Iran and the US not making irreversible commitments, India may have to game for an unshackled Iran.
This might mean Iran's current need for allies and commercial partners and preparedness to accept rupee payments for its crude might change once it progressively emerges from a deep freeze of more than three decades.
In the immediate run, India will be relieved that problems with re-insurance of Iran oil while shipping and refining can be addressed by the four-page agreement signed by Iran and a strict six-monthly monitoring of sanctions could ease.
But the larger scenario where Iran reasserts itself in the Persian Gulf and becomes a factor fromAfghanistan to Syria requires a more nuanced reading of India's options if US ties with Teherando gather pace.
Sources said India will need to balance relations with an emergent Iran looking to trade its nuclear programme for strategic dividends with its interests in Arab states that host an estimated seven million Indians pursuing their livelihoods.
There is a convergence over the need to check the Taliban in Afghanistan, but as Iran seeks what it considers its rightful place in the world, Indian diplomacy will be tested as ancient rivalries acquire a new edge.
Saudis view Tehran as a Shia power whose civilizational claims and technological progress, along with a large population, pose a threat in theological and strategic terms. The possibility of Iran becoming a major US investment unites the Saudis and Israel.
India cannot see these faultlines as merely theoretical as the US is clearly tempted by not having to commit enormous resources in keeping Iran shackled and this clearly calls for a more innovative approach from New Delhi.
The outlines of the accord that make it more difficult for Iran to weaponize its nuclear programme suit India's interest in not having another nuclear armed state in its neighbourhood.
Iran will need much more time to make a device once it implements conditions like not enriching uranium beyond 5% and abandoning plans to reprocess plutonium and a build a heavy water reactor.
Iran nuclear deal may end cheap oil supply for India - The Times of India
