Surenas
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2012
- Messages
- 6,740
- Reaction score
- -6
For Iran to do this from their territory most certainly means they want a Saudi response so they have an excuse to wreak havoc on Saudi/UAE/Bahrain oil facilities and that way will force the US either to get back into nuclear deal or deescalate or that doesn't work out and a regional war erupts. Question is who will back Saudi and Iran in such a scenario.
Iran upped the ante big time and is making it clear it is close to igniting or going to war but there is nothing being done in regards to the oil sanctions/nuclear deal. So Trump administration policy does not make sense here. They should have expected this.
For Saudis they are learning the hard way that they can't continue being passive in the region and to have a more offensive strategy and secure as many allies as it can in the region. Saudis are now realizing they can't look outside the region for their security. As ultimately they need allies in their local area and proxies like Iran has.
US military on other hand is always ready. But, US political establishment and economy, and US public are not. Much of this has to do with incompetence of these Arab regimes, US can't rely on them to do the work that is necessary on the ground if they provided aerial support for them and greatly weakened Iranian infrastructure. So problem for US is most likely Iran and proxies will invade Saudi Arabia and and US will have to clean that up which is the last thing they want.
So the US has no reliable/competent Arab partner on the ground which can mobilize proxies or its own troops to do what would be necessary in Yemen, Syria or Iraq. As more than one country will get dragged into such a war. This is why war would be deadly. Arab incompetence is much more powerful than what Iran can do.
You are a walking cliche.