Interpretation The fate of the Carmel project depends on whether the United States absorbs parts of it for NGCV
When the stardust falls to the ground after the Mapat declaration, reality will begin. A land plant in the aerospace industry will have to work hard to incorporate components of the Carmel into the American NGCV program
Ami Rohex Dumba | 14/10/2021 Contact author
sharing
Interpretation The fate of the Carmel project depends on whether the United States absorbs parts of it for NGCV
A few days ago, the Ministry of Defense decided to award IAI to be the main contractor of the Carmel project. This is a project that demonstrates technology for the benefit of future RKM. Additional industries such as Elbit and Rafael will participate in the project, which will supply components.
The aim of the project is to develop components, subsystems and technologies for the benefit of combat vehicles that are to be used by the IDF in the future. Tanks and APCs (caterpillar and wheels). From a budgetary point of view, Israel does not have the money to develop a new battle tank.
Therefore, the Ministry of Defense decided to go on two timelines. In the short term, upgrade the existing tank based on existing solutions in the CCTV to take time until there is a solution for a new tank and APC (and no, the IDF does not have the money to equip hundreds of solid APCs). In the long timeline, develop the Carmel concept.
In the short timeline you can find the NMR (APC with active protection), Chariot Mark 4 - "Lightning" and the Eitan. Some of the old tanks become anti-RPGs, some add a windbreaker and new communication, observation and firing systems. The tanks are also improved on the basis of existing systems, software upgrades, communications, etc.
In the long run, the Carmel should be a leap forward in its capabilities, not another upgrade. But a new platform.
Need external money
If there is no money in shekels, external sources of funding need to be found. One alternative is joint development with other countries. This procedure is led by Mapat, but it is a procedure with a low probability of success as the years go by.
why? As competition in the global arms market has increased. There are already makeshift manufacturers with broad government support in richer countries, so it is not always economically worthwhile to develop together with Israel. Sometimes it is better to buy a finished product from a manufacturer that has received full government funding for the development of embroidery from the citizens of another country. The products of Russia and China have also narrowed the gap with Western tools and present a relatively inexpensive alternative.
Another reason is the democratization of knowledge in the field of embroidery. If in the past Talik, the father of the chariot, developed a tank that is still considered one of the most successful in the Mediterranean arena, a lot of water has since passed through the river. Today, there are quite a few countries that instead of acquiring foreign knowledge - keys alone.
To this must be added a third factor and that is the effect of the corona epidemic. Following the epidemic, the economies of many countries in the world have experienced and still experience difficulties. In such a situation, a country that wants to equip itself with a new land weapon will look for an existing cheap alternative. And if you decide on a new development, you want the development and production to do with it to support local industries and create jobs.
The challenge of export and procurement
If we return to Carmel, this is a project that requires a large budget to reach operational maturity and mass production. Therefore, IAI, as the main contractor, has two main alternatives. One is to make collaborations (OEM) with existing manufacturers in the world. As Raphael, Elbit and other companies do with weapons stations, communication systems, observation systems, armaments, chairs, batteries, etc.
This alternative is not always technically appropriate. If the manufacturer already has an existing vehicle, he will not be in a hurry to invest in a new platform. And the existing one does not always know how to support the developments of the Carmel or lied very much to adapt to it. Therefore, when it comes to a foreign manufacturer, the complexity of assimilating such new capabilities is much greater than in a project that is set up from scratch.
A second alternative is to enter into a U.S. development project of the future combat vehicle for the U.S. Army or NGCV in Laz. This is a huge project that aims to replace the IDF with the US Army. IAI must succeed, with the assistance of the Ministry of Defense and political factors in Israel, in successfully integrating components from the Carmel within the project.
This is a project that Americans are developing from scratch, with their own money. So the introduction of Carmel components in the initial planning and development phase is much easier and cheaper than in the previous alternative where there is already an existing platform.
If that happens, Israel will be able to purchase in the future, through a foreign aid agreement with the United States or a special budget allocated by the US House of Representatives, APCs and possibly tanks to renew the land arm. It is possible that even the United States will agree to cooperate with Manatak in order for part of the assembly to take place in Israel, as is the case today with the Tiger APC and in the near future with a windbreaker (partial or full production in the United States and assembly in Israel).
It is worth emphasizing the difference between the alternatives. If IAI, under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense, follows the OEM path, and establishes a partnership with an existing, non-American RPM manufacturer, and the United States has no interest in financing it, the State of Israel will have trouble purchasing tools from it. why? Because Israel has no money to buy in shekels, the United States will not pay, and will need another external financing channel.
The American alternative is preferable
That is, the same manufacturer that is a business company, will not give such financing out of pocket, but will turn to the government that supports it. And that country will have to provide funding in the form of a significant discount to the State of Israel. Except for the United States, only Germany has done so in recent years with submarines and missile ships. And this is also when Israel paid quite a bit of money in shekels.
It is possible, but a more complex route, with smaller success rates, and also one that in the end, as mentioned, will cost Israel in shekels (like the submarines and ships). In contrast, the United States provides Israel with about $ 38 billion every decade for the purchase of American weapons. It costs the State of Israel nothing. And do not think that the United States is doing this because of over-Zionism - all the money (except for the conversion of a very partial aid dollar that will end at the end of the current agreement) goes to American industries.
It's an agreement that 'paints', promises money, for American industries. When Israel undertakes to purchase fighter jets, the American manufacturer knows that it has a secure income for a decade ahead. And lawmakers in countries that have security factories, such as those that benefit from the money painted for Israel, are lobbying Congress and the Senate to anchor the agreement with Israel.
In terms of renewing RKM for the land arm, the same mechanism can fund such a move without costing the Israeli government a penny. If the US adopts parts of the Carmel to NGCV, Israel will be able to buy dozens or hundreds of tools using money given in the next foreign aid agreement (the current agreement is closed to the Air Force).
Another advantage of this route is the final price per unit. Since it will involve the production of thousands or tens of thousands of tools for the American army and for export, a unit price will be very cheap in relation to any production in Israel or elsewhere in the world. In other words, for the same dollar it will be possible to buy more only km / h than other production alternatives.
In addition. American industries are known all over the world. If the Carmel components enter the NGCV program, it means that every country that buys the tool from the United States, IAI, will receive its relative share. Similar to what happens with pilot helmets that Elbit manufactures for American fighter jets.
In conclusion, when the stardust falls to the ground after the Mapat declaration, reality will begin. A land plant in the aerospace industry, the head of the US desk and the CEO of the company, all need to work together to include Carmel components in the NGCV program. Without it, the chances that the land arm will receive such an operational solution and that IAI will see money from the export of Carmel components are very low.
https://www.israeldefense.co.il/node/52239 translated by google
When the stardust falls to the ground after the Mapat declaration, reality will begin. A land plant in the aerospace industry will have to work hard to incorporate components of the Carmel into the American NGCV program
Ami Rohex Dumba | 14/10/2021 Contact author
sharing
Interpretation The fate of the Carmel project depends on whether the United States absorbs parts of it for NGCV
A few days ago, the Ministry of Defense decided to award IAI to be the main contractor of the Carmel project. This is a project that demonstrates technology for the benefit of future RKM. Additional industries such as Elbit and Rafael will participate in the project, which will supply components.
The aim of the project is to develop components, subsystems and technologies for the benefit of combat vehicles that are to be used by the IDF in the future. Tanks and APCs (caterpillar and wheels). From a budgetary point of view, Israel does not have the money to develop a new battle tank.
Therefore, the Ministry of Defense decided to go on two timelines. In the short term, upgrade the existing tank based on existing solutions in the CCTV to take time until there is a solution for a new tank and APC (and no, the IDF does not have the money to equip hundreds of solid APCs). In the long timeline, develop the Carmel concept.
In the short timeline you can find the NMR (APC with active protection), Chariot Mark 4 - "Lightning" and the Eitan. Some of the old tanks become anti-RPGs, some add a windbreaker and new communication, observation and firing systems. The tanks are also improved on the basis of existing systems, software upgrades, communications, etc.
In the long run, the Carmel should be a leap forward in its capabilities, not another upgrade. But a new platform.
Need external money
If there is no money in shekels, external sources of funding need to be found. One alternative is joint development with other countries. This procedure is led by Mapat, but it is a procedure with a low probability of success as the years go by.
why? As competition in the global arms market has increased. There are already makeshift manufacturers with broad government support in richer countries, so it is not always economically worthwhile to develop together with Israel. Sometimes it is better to buy a finished product from a manufacturer that has received full government funding for the development of embroidery from the citizens of another country. The products of Russia and China have also narrowed the gap with Western tools and present a relatively inexpensive alternative.
Another reason is the democratization of knowledge in the field of embroidery. If in the past Talik, the father of the chariot, developed a tank that is still considered one of the most successful in the Mediterranean arena, a lot of water has since passed through the river. Today, there are quite a few countries that instead of acquiring foreign knowledge - keys alone.
To this must be added a third factor and that is the effect of the corona epidemic. Following the epidemic, the economies of many countries in the world have experienced and still experience difficulties. In such a situation, a country that wants to equip itself with a new land weapon will look for an existing cheap alternative. And if you decide on a new development, you want the development and production to do with it to support local industries and create jobs.
The challenge of export and procurement
If we return to Carmel, this is a project that requires a large budget to reach operational maturity and mass production. Therefore, IAI, as the main contractor, has two main alternatives. One is to make collaborations (OEM) with existing manufacturers in the world. As Raphael, Elbit and other companies do with weapons stations, communication systems, observation systems, armaments, chairs, batteries, etc.
This alternative is not always technically appropriate. If the manufacturer already has an existing vehicle, he will not be in a hurry to invest in a new platform. And the existing one does not always know how to support the developments of the Carmel or lied very much to adapt to it. Therefore, when it comes to a foreign manufacturer, the complexity of assimilating such new capabilities is much greater than in a project that is set up from scratch.
A second alternative is to enter into a U.S. development project of the future combat vehicle for the U.S. Army or NGCV in Laz. This is a huge project that aims to replace the IDF with the US Army. IAI must succeed, with the assistance of the Ministry of Defense and political factors in Israel, in successfully integrating components from the Carmel within the project.
This is a project that Americans are developing from scratch, with their own money. So the introduction of Carmel components in the initial planning and development phase is much easier and cheaper than in the previous alternative where there is already an existing platform.
If that happens, Israel will be able to purchase in the future, through a foreign aid agreement with the United States or a special budget allocated by the US House of Representatives, APCs and possibly tanks to renew the land arm. It is possible that even the United States will agree to cooperate with Manatak in order for part of the assembly to take place in Israel, as is the case today with the Tiger APC and in the near future with a windbreaker (partial or full production in the United States and assembly in Israel).
It is worth emphasizing the difference between the alternatives. If IAI, under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense, follows the OEM path, and establishes a partnership with an existing, non-American RPM manufacturer, and the United States has no interest in financing it, the State of Israel will have trouble purchasing tools from it. why? Because Israel has no money to buy in shekels, the United States will not pay, and will need another external financing channel.
The American alternative is preferable
That is, the same manufacturer that is a business company, will not give such financing out of pocket, but will turn to the government that supports it. And that country will have to provide funding in the form of a significant discount to the State of Israel. Except for the United States, only Germany has done so in recent years with submarines and missile ships. And this is also when Israel paid quite a bit of money in shekels.
It is possible, but a more complex route, with smaller success rates, and also one that in the end, as mentioned, will cost Israel in shekels (like the submarines and ships). In contrast, the United States provides Israel with about $ 38 billion every decade for the purchase of American weapons. It costs the State of Israel nothing. And do not think that the United States is doing this because of over-Zionism - all the money (except for the conversion of a very partial aid dollar that will end at the end of the current agreement) goes to American industries.
It's an agreement that 'paints', promises money, for American industries. When Israel undertakes to purchase fighter jets, the American manufacturer knows that it has a secure income for a decade ahead. And lawmakers in countries that have security factories, such as those that benefit from the money painted for Israel, are lobbying Congress and the Senate to anchor the agreement with Israel.
In terms of renewing RKM for the land arm, the same mechanism can fund such a move without costing the Israeli government a penny. If the US adopts parts of the Carmel to NGCV, Israel will be able to buy dozens or hundreds of tools using money given in the next foreign aid agreement (the current agreement is closed to the Air Force).
Another advantage of this route is the final price per unit. Since it will involve the production of thousands or tens of thousands of tools for the American army and for export, a unit price will be very cheap in relation to any production in Israel or elsewhere in the world. In other words, for the same dollar it will be possible to buy more only km / h than other production alternatives.
In addition. American industries are known all over the world. If the Carmel components enter the NGCV program, it means that every country that buys the tool from the United States, IAI, will receive its relative share. Similar to what happens with pilot helmets that Elbit manufactures for American fighter jets.
In conclusion, when the stardust falls to the ground after the Mapat declaration, reality will begin. A land plant in the aerospace industry, the head of the US desk and the CEO of the company, all need to work together to include Carmel components in the NGCV program. Without it, the chances that the land arm will receive such an operational solution and that IAI will see money from the export of Carmel components are very low.
https://www.israeldefense.co.il/node/52239 translated by google
