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Inflation tests stability in Vietnam
Southeast Asia
Jan 26, 2012
By Roberto Tofani
Southeast Asia
Jan 26, 2012
By Roberto Tofani
HANOI - Buffeted by persistent double-digit inflation, slowing economic growth and rising worker unrest, Vietnam's economic reforms are at risk of coming undone. While Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung emphasized this month the need to maintain ''quick and sustainable'' growth, questions are rising whether Vietnam can have both amid global economic and financial turbulence.
Consumer prices were up over 17% year-on-year in January, marking one of the highest inflation rates in emerging Asia. At the same time, once rapid economic growth is tapering off, falling to 5.9% last year from 6.8% in 2010. While other regional countries have lowered interest rates to spur growth and cushion their economies from an extended slowdown in the US and Europe, high inflation means Vietnam's policymakers have less space tooosen monetary policy. Vietnam's benchmark interest rate is now 15%.
Pham Chi Lan, a Vietnam economy expert, noted in a recent academic article that the government invested 253 trillion dong (US$12.3 billion) in just 22 public enterprises last year in a bid to pump prime the economy. That was three times more than the 81 trillion dong cut in state spending announced but never implemented by the National Assembly, according to Lan.
Meanwhile, the central bank estimates overall credit grew by 7% last year; independent analysts believe that figure was considerably higher. While the government ramped up spending, the currency, the dong, fell against the US dollar, dipping by more than 7% at a time many other regional currencies appreciated against the greenback. Central bank governor Nguyen Van Binh has warned that the dong could weaken further in 2012.
Asia Times Online :: Inflation tests stability in Vietnam