Indonesia Defence Forum

[¿Por qué?]

Prabowo knows from day one that F-35 is a bit stretch for us. His mission was basically asking the U.S. to replace our SU-35 deal with similarly very good deal. That's why he's asking about F-35.

The SU-35 deal is a very good deal since we don't have lump sump money upfront. Where else can you get 11 brand new 4.5th gen fighter for only $550 million cash + $550 million worth of commodity. Only Russians would accept it.

F16V is an expensive aircraft. If we take a look at the deals involving Slovak, Bulgaria, and Taiwan it's around $121 millions - $131 millions per aircraft.

The deal with any brand new U.S. made 4th/4.5th gen aircraft should be arranged similarly with our SU-35 deal. So we'll only accept 11 F-16V (or any other new U.S. aircraft to replace SU-35) if the U.S. would also accept 50% cash + 50% commodity.

Otherwise, like I said earlier, just focus on procuring F-16 EDA. While for the brand new fighter we'll turn to non-U.S. providers. We don't need to force ourselves to buy F-35 or any other 5th gen jets. Some countries (Germany, France, Spain, etc) so far looked content skipping 5th gen and just go from 4.5th gen to 6th gen.

Speaking of non-U.S. providers, while we're probably going for EF or Rafale if we intended to buy European 4.5th gen jets, apart from the U.S. and Europe, Japan (MHI) also has plan to develop 6th gen. So if 5th gen is out of our reach, 6th gen would probably give us more opportunities in the next step after 4.5th gen.

 

[umigami]

Prabowo knows from day one that F-35 is a bit stretch for us. His mission was basically asking the U.S. to replace our SU-35 deal with similarly very good deal. That's why he's asking about F-35.

The SU-35 deal is a very good deal since we don't have lump sump money upfront. Where else can you get 11 brand new 4.5th gen fighter for only $550 million cash + $550 million worth of commodity. Only Russians would accept it.

F16V is an expensive aircraft. If we take a look at the deals involving Slovak, Bulgaria, and Taiwan it's around $121 millions - $131 millions per aircraft.

The deal with any brand new U.S. made 4th/4.5th gen aircraft should be arranged similarly with our SU-35 deal. So we'll only accept 11 F-16V (or any other new U.S. aircraft to replace SU-35) if the U.S. would also accept 50% cash + 50% commodity.

Otherwise, like I said earlier, just focus on procuring F-16 EDA. While for the brand new fighter we'll turn to non-U.S. providers. We don't need to force ourselves to buy F-35 or any other 5th gen jets. Some countries (Germany, France, Spain, etc) so far looked content skipping 5th gen and just go from 4.5th gen to 6th gen.

Speaking of non-U.S. providers, while we're probably going for EF or Rafale if we intended to buy European 4.5th gen jets, apart from the U.S. and Europe, Japan (MHI) also has plan to develop 6th gen. So if 5th gen is out of our reach, 6th gen would probably give us more opportunities in the next step after 4.5th gen.

Makes me wonder how much does it cost to get or upgrade to F16V? I know its hard to calculate with all those training/munition/logistics etc, but lets take a look at view of the latest F16V block 70 purchase by others. Here is what I found from mbah google: (disclaimer* numbers of purchase/price and source might not be accurate)

1. Bulgaria (2019) ; 8 Viper for $512 mil = @$64 mil. No mentioning about munition/training/logistics/etc
2. Bahrain (2018) ; 16 Viper for $1.1 bil = @$69 mil. LM contract to build aircraft & support. But they also upgrade their 20 fighters of F16 block 40 to F16V for $1.082 bil which include new engines, avionics and an active electronically scanned array radar system.
3. Taiwan (2019) ; 66 Viper for $8 bil = @121mil. Including spare parts
4. Slovakia (2019) ; 14 Viper for $800 mil = @57 mil. Production and support.
5. Morocco (2019) ; 25 Viper for $3.787 mil = @151 mil. Include - 30 M61 Al Vulcan 20mm Guns (includes 5 spares), 40 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), 60 GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs, 26 AN/AAQ-33 Sniper Pods, spares, practice equipment, management systems, navigation equipment, support and integration and U.S. government and contractor engineering and logistical support services. She also upgrade 23 of their F16 to Viper standard for $985 mil.

So to upgrade 20 block 32/40 to Viper standard its going to cost around $1billion.
To get 1 Skadron (16 fighters) if we follow Bahrain price its equal to $1.1bil prolly more with parts and stuff.
36 Viper of mix new/used might be around $2.5bil (with some parts). Decent number for its capability and quantity I must say tho I doubt our budget for Viper purchase exceeding that number, prolly @1.5bil at most.

Bahrain purchase model is more likely for us.

Setelah Dubes Inggris, Giliran Dubes AS Sowan Menhan Prabowo

he got a lot of "tamu" these days.

bentar, dubesnya ganti ya? Baru sadar...

 

[Nike]

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[umigami]

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Cool... but a source said no additional Apache until 2024.

 

[Chestnut]

F16V is an expensive aircraft. If we take a look at the deals involving Slovak, Bulgaria, and Taiwan it's around $121 millions - $131 millions per aircraft.

Slovakia and Bulgaria are first time F-16 users, you can't compare us to them because they are also paying for the initial infrastructure and support network.

 

[Gundala]

Some countries (Germany, France, Spain, etc) so far looked content skipping 5th gen and just go from 4.5th gen to 6th gen

Thats true, and you know whats both future 6th gen spec tech Europe plan to have? Double engine!! and the ability to become unmaned. They know the current weakness of F-35 is her limited range. Now imagine unmaned double engine Stealth fighter with the F-35 avionic/Radar/EW suite/decoy lunch capability....pretty scary as they can perform high G manuver without having to worry about blackout pilot.....

But wait a minute, we have KFX med+ class with double engine and can be equiped/upgraded with proper avionic/radar/Ew suite/etc into at least close to F-35 right? What KFX need is proper Radar absorbing materials including coating (which still an issue on F-35). Promising right? Only if we can manage to get better deal out of the project which in today position seems unlikely to happen.

Bahrain purchase model is more likely for us.

I know right...

Bahrain (2018) ; 16 Viper for $1.1 bil = @$69 mil. LM contract to build aircraft & support. But they also upgrade their 20 fighters of F16 block 40 to F16V for $1.082 bil which include new engines, avionics and an active electronically scanned array radar system

For a total of approx. $2.2 bil we will have 36 F16 Viper Block 72 (16x new + 20 used). The used one might be all delivered in 2-3years where the brand new one might take longer 4-6 years.Pretty awesome eh? But then again MoD prefer double engine so this plan might go into the trash bin can for now.

 

[Fl0gger]

kalau itu sich namanya kebablasan khayalannya mas. Ga ada paket include bonus EW

Oh maaf maksudnya " come with " bukan bonus itu pak yang saya maksud paket penawaran dari Boeing kl jd di beli , beli nya F 18 E/ F dan EA 18 G growler dan P 8 Poseidon itu juga kalau jadi di beli AU kan pengen itu Hornet begitu.

 

[umigami]

But then again MoD prefer double engine so this plan might go into the trash bin can for now.

Yeah that's suck.
Because of that MoD "preference" and solution for trade balancing, we have to buy American dual engine. But they don't offer us their eagle so we stuck with superbug...

BUT I can't really say superbug suitable for Skadron 14 (Air supperiority squadron) and we need to get a lot of fighters ASAP (no time to wait fighter manufacturing), so perhaps we need European interceptor afteral (another Jendral's favorite) either ex Austrian or German.

BUT that's mean 2 new fighter species introduced to our AF, can they really handle it?

At this point why don't just commit to Eurofighter if you love it so much, Mr MoD!
Buy a skadron of second hand Tranche 1 and 2 skadron new Tranche 3a maybe!!!

BUT again we have to buy something American too!!

AAAGH, begok aah... suka2 lu aja deh, Kancil!!

 

[JCMan]

Yeah that's suck.
Because of that MoD "preference" and solution for trade balancing, we have to buy American dual engine. But they don't offer us their eagle so we stuck with superbug...

BUT I can't really say superbug suitable for Skadron 14 (Air supperiority squadron) and we need to get a lot of fighters ASAP (no time to wait fighter manufacturing), so perhaps we need European interceptor afteral (another Jendral's favorite) either ex Austrian or German.

BUT that's mean 2 new fighter species introduced to our AF, can they really handle it?

At this point why don't just commit to Eurofighter if you love it so much, Mr MoD!
Buy a skadron of second hand Tranche 1 and 2 skadron new Tranche 3a maybe!!!

BUT again we have to buy something American too!!

AAAGH, begok aah... suka2 lu aja deh, Kancil!!

I'm honestly torn on this issue. On one hand, yes the Superbugs although possessing numerous positive traits are hardly the ideal candidate for the air superiority role. But on the other hand, IF the offer included Growlers then IMHO we should really try to look into it. Deeply.

Why? Because if a full blown conventional conflict was ever going to occur between us and China, then I doubt we'll ever gonna succeed in any air superiority game plan against them. But a dedicated strategic level airborne jammer platform will do wonders for us in any scenario, especially in light of what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Let's be realistic, adding a handful of F-15s or Su-35s will not tilt the air superiority outlook in our favor very much at all against China, but Growlers can prove to be useful in more ways than one.

 

[Ravager]

I don't want to rain on all of your parade here . But , if you all guys are too make an assumption by a mere handfull of growler without their adequated ground and air support would suddenly change the equation against you know who .... Then all of you were equally dreaming too..
Makes no mistakes here . Even in some segment they allready surpassing Ivan in EW warfare capability .

 

[JCMan]

I don't want to rain on all of your parade here . But , if you all guys are too make an assumption by a mere handfull of growler without their adequated ground and air support would suddenly change the equation against you know who .... Then all of you were equally dreaming too..
Makes no mistakes here . Even in some segment they allready surpassing Ivan in EW warfare capability .

I, for one, am not suggesting that getting the Growlers will be the silver bullet that's going to win us the war against China, while getting the Eagles will lose us the war or anything like that. It's just I feel that the Growlers' strategic level jamming capabilities will be more useful in any battlefield scenario that may come than just pure air superiority fighters would.

And this line of reasoning is despite I've always been all for expanding the Flanker fleet, so that's saying a lot.

 

[trishna_amṛta]

Even in some segment they allready surpassing Ivan in EW warfare capability .

But they still haven't surpass Comrade Ivan Vodka och wait what this all about again?

 

[Ravager]

But they still haven't surpass Comrade Ivan Vodka och wait what this all about again?

Some wet dream before friday night . As always ...

I, for one, am not suggesting that getting the Growlers will be the silver bullet that's going to win us the war against China, while getting the Eagles will lose us the war or anything like that. It's just I feel that the Growlers' strategic level jamming capabilities will be more useful in any battlefield scenario that may come then just pure air superiority fighters would.

And this line of reasoning is despite I've always been all for expanding the Flanker fleet, so that's saying a lot.

To be honest i never specifically mention your name but i meant this for everybody . But , When wishes mixed with rumour and whatnot everybody starting to get high before the reality coming in and crush them hope down ...

A litle bit dose of reality will make sure some discussion never stray too far ...

 

[Gundala]

And this line of reasoning is despite I've always been all for expanding the Flanker fleet, so that's saying a lot

You might get your wish come true tho. With all those issues people has been mentioning above, one of the affordable step is to continue the SU-35. If my memory serve me well that SU-35 package is already include munitions/missiles, so in short once it comes it will be combat ready. The barter part will make it easier in terms of financing burden and economy as we are going to use more Rupiah for the goods to trade thus injecting money into our own economy which is very crucial in this pandemic era..

The main issue after we get pass thru CAATSA is what to buy from US? The logical and affordable option is mix of new & used F16 which is not the flavor of current MoD. Now hornet is a good options but abit more expensive and need more money and time to reach IOC/FOC compare to Viper. The good thing is we might take the order of Hornet block III in which US has ordered and give the production line to us. This will cut down the delivery time and might make it the fastest option for brand new platform even comparing to Rafale (F16V takes longer then both). Not to mention the package deal we can get if we mix it with P-8.

So our MoD have plenty things to chew on these days. The opening of multiyears payment is something that we can use to afford expensive toys if we know how to use it.

 

[¿Por qué?]

But then again MoD prefer double engine so this plan might go into the trash bin can for now.

You might get your wish come true tho. With all those issues people has been mentioning above, one of the affordable step is to continue the SU-35. If my memory serve me well that SU-35 package is already include munitions/missiles, so in short once it comes it will be combat ready.

Are you saying that there won't be any F-16V and we'll actually get SU-35? Dude, that's too much awesome news in one morning

For a total of approx. $2.2 bil we will have 36 F16 Viper Block 72 (16x new + 20 used).

You said with only $2.2 billion of cash we could get 36 F16V (16 new + 20 used). I make a counter offer. With exactly the same amount of cash ($2.2 bil) we could get 44 SU-35 as the Russians would accept the remaining $2.2 bil (Rp 31T) as export commodity.

All 44 brand new SU-35. Complete with munitions/missiles. All combat ready.

Not only that, our economy also got boosted with Rp 31T worth of export commodity. Something that's really precious in this pandemic era.

Slovakia and Bulgaria are first time F-16 users, you can't compare us to them because they are also paying for the initial infrastructure and support network.

I also mentioned Taiwan, who has been F-16 operators since the 1990's and they were quoted $121 mil per aircraft. The deal was also very recent (Des 2019).

Thats true, and you know whats both future 6th gen spec tech Europe plan to have? Double engine!! and the ability to become unmaned. They know the current weakness of F-35 is her limited range. Now imagine unmaned double engine Stealth fighter with the F-35 avionic/Radar/EW suite/decoy lunch capability....pretty scary as they can perform high G manuver without having to worry about blackout pilot.....

Yes, the projection of how 6th gen fighter would be like should be taken into our consideration to just skip 5th gen. The good news is that there'll be more providers from different countries.

The main issue after we get pass thru CAATSA is what to buy from US? The logical and affordable option is mix of new & used F16 which is not the flavor of current MoD. Now hornet is a good options but abit more expensive and need more money and time to reach IOC/FOC compare to Viper. The good thing is we might take the order of Hornet block III in which US has ordered and give the production line to us. This will cut down the delivery time and might make it the fastest option for brand new platform even comparing to Rafale (F16V takes longer then both). Not to mention the package deal we can get if we mix it with P-8.

I don't mind Shornet as it's relatively cheap to buy and maintain with $11.000 CPFH (Chestnut data). But if we still fail to get the SU-35 deal over the line, I'd prefer to go for European jets for our brand new fleets.