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India's trouble has no boundaries
May 9, 2009 .
The country's rise to power is threatened by its position in an increasingly unstable region, writes Matt Wade in New Delhi.
INDIA is touted as an emerging super power and an engine for global growth. But it lives in a bad neighbourhood that seems to be getting worse.
The man charged with protecting its internal security, the Home Affairs Minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, recently warned that India is caught in a "ring of fire" and some neighbours qualified as "failed states" - but did not name names.
Whichever way it looks, New Delhi sees crisis across its borders. To the west, its nuclear-armed rival Pakistan is lurching dangerously in the face of an emboldened Taliban insurgency. Alarm bells rang across the world when Taliban fighters came within 100 kilometres of Islamabad.
"Pakistan is descending into a jihadist dungeon," says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research.
Even the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, acquired to counter India's nuclear arsenal, is being openly questioned.
The Pakistan military has launched a major offensive against the insurgents in the troubled Swat Valley in the North-West Frontier Province. But the fighting has caused misery for the tens of thousands who have fled their homes to escape the conflict.
War and humanitarian crisis also blights India's southern neighbour, Sri Lanka. About 50,000 people are trapped with Tamil Tiger rebels as they fight for survival on a tiny strip of land on Sri Lanka's north-east coast. Another 200,000 displaced people, mostly Sri Lankan Tamils, are in guarded refugee camps. The Sri Lankan conflict has even spilled over into Indian politics as Tamil leaders in India demand New Delhi do more to prevent the suffering of Tamils affected by the war.
Meanwhile to the north, Nepal has been plunged into a dangerous political crisis. The Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal - or Prachanda - resigned on Monday after the President, Ram Baran Yadav, overturned a government decision to sack the army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal. Prachanda led a decade-long Maoist insurgency which left 13,000 people dead and caused massive upheaval before the rebels joined mainstream politics two years ago. There are fears the stand-off could undermine the peace process.
"Nepal is another kettle that is blowing its top," says Colonel R. Hariharan, a strategic analyst.
Then to India's east, tension simmers in Bangladesh, the world's seventh most-populous country, weeks after a bloody mutiny by the country's border guards, the Bangladesh Rifles. The uprising underscored the challenges facing Bangladesh as a new democratic government finds its feet after years of military-backed rule. Security analysts in New Delhi are also concerned about the rise of Islamic militancy in Bangladesh.
Professor Chellaney believes India lives in the world's worst neighbourhood. "I met with a group of Israeli scholars recently and we were debating whether Israel's neighbourhood was worse than India's," he said.
"After deliberating on the issue for about half an hour, all the Israel scholars in the room agreed that they would not like to trade their neighbourhood for India's. One by one, all the countries around India are becoming internally dysfunctional. That doesn't leave any stable neighbour for India."
The chronic strife on India's borders threatens to hamper its economy. "Even if India does well politically and economically, and tries to play an active role in bolstering its neighbours, the implications for India will be pretty grave," Professor Chellaney says.
"The harsh reality is that India will be weighed down by its troubled neighbourhood. That is quite a burden for India at a time when many countries are looking at it as a rising superpower."
India's trouble has no boundaries
May 9, 2009 .
The country's rise to power is threatened by its position in an increasingly unstable region, writes Matt Wade in New Delhi.
INDIA is touted as an emerging super power and an engine for global growth. But it lives in a bad neighbourhood that seems to be getting worse.
The man charged with protecting its internal security, the Home Affairs Minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, recently warned that India is caught in a "ring of fire" and some neighbours qualified as "failed states" - but did not name names.
Whichever way it looks, New Delhi sees crisis across its borders. To the west, its nuclear-armed rival Pakistan is lurching dangerously in the face of an emboldened Taliban insurgency. Alarm bells rang across the world when Taliban fighters came within 100 kilometres of Islamabad.
"Pakistan is descending into a jihadist dungeon," says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research.
Even the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, acquired to counter India's nuclear arsenal, is being openly questioned.
The Pakistan military has launched a major offensive against the insurgents in the troubled Swat Valley in the North-West Frontier Province. But the fighting has caused misery for the tens of thousands who have fled their homes to escape the conflict.
War and humanitarian crisis also blights India's southern neighbour, Sri Lanka. About 50,000 people are trapped with Tamil Tiger rebels as they fight for survival on a tiny strip of land on Sri Lanka's north-east coast. Another 200,000 displaced people, mostly Sri Lankan Tamils, are in guarded refugee camps. The Sri Lankan conflict has even spilled over into Indian politics as Tamil leaders in India demand New Delhi do more to prevent the suffering of Tamils affected by the war.
Meanwhile to the north, Nepal has been plunged into a dangerous political crisis. The Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal - or Prachanda - resigned on Monday after the President, Ram Baran Yadav, overturned a government decision to sack the army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal. Prachanda led a decade-long Maoist insurgency which left 13,000 people dead and caused massive upheaval before the rebels joined mainstream politics two years ago. There are fears the stand-off could undermine the peace process.
"Nepal is another kettle that is blowing its top," says Colonel R. Hariharan, a strategic analyst.
Then to India's east, tension simmers in Bangladesh, the world's seventh most-populous country, weeks after a bloody mutiny by the country's border guards, the Bangladesh Rifles. The uprising underscored the challenges facing Bangladesh as a new democratic government finds its feet after years of military-backed rule. Security analysts in New Delhi are also concerned about the rise of Islamic militancy in Bangladesh.
Professor Chellaney believes India lives in the world's worst neighbourhood. "I met with a group of Israeli scholars recently and we were debating whether Israel's neighbourhood was worse than India's," he said.
"After deliberating on the issue for about half an hour, all the Israel scholars in the room agreed that they would not like to trade their neighbourhood for India's. One by one, all the countries around India are becoming internally dysfunctional. That doesn't leave any stable neighbour for India."
The chronic strife on India's borders threatens to hamper its economy. "Even if India does well politically and economically, and tries to play an active role in bolstering its neighbours, the implications for India will be pretty grave," Professor Chellaney says.
"The harsh reality is that India will be weighed down by its troubled neighbourhood. That is quite a burden for India at a time when many countries are looking at it as a rising superpower."
India's trouble has no boundaries
