India's Economy Will Overtake The U.S. By 2050, Here's How

[PakistaniNawab]

 

[That Guy]

In terms of GDP PPP, sure, but GDP nominal, India will continue to trail behind the US for the better part of this century.

 

[Nilgiri]

Sure the aggregate (much sooner by PPP) is almost inevitable.

But what really matters more is per capita. That is much further away (if ever) and thus cannot really be projected in any reasonable way.

 

[BHarwana]

Sure the aggregate (much sooner by PPP) is almost inevitable.

But what really matters more is per capita. That is much further away (if ever) and thus cannot really be projected in any reasonable way.

Don't agree with Indian economy over taking USA. They may have the growth but USA will go to war with India if they try to by pass the US economy.

 

[That Guy]

Don't agree with Indian economy over taking USA. They may have the growth but USA will go to war with India if they try to by pass the US economy.

India is a nuclear weapons state, and will likely have missiles that reach the US, by the time they catch up to US's economy in most aspects.

Don't be ridiculous.

If anything, rivalry between India and the US will likely increase in the future, which will likely lead to butting heads diplomatically, and even supporting opposing factions in foreign wars.

 

[Nilgiri]

Don't agree with Indian economy over taking USA. They may have the growth but USA will go to war with India if they try to by pass the US economy.

So you are saying that the USA will go to war with China when they try to "by pass" the US economy in nominal terms (they have already passed in PPP terms)?

What the hell are you smoking?

I am talking in pure aggregate terms, that too in PPP for India. A larger Indian economy is actually a huge net benefit for countries like US and China....and vice versa.

Qualitatively (i.e per capita), the future is much more murky given what new technologies will arise and which countries will gain the 10 year - 20 year "ownership" spurts from those.

 

[BHarwana]

So you are saying that the USA will go to war with China when they try to "by pass" the US economy in nominal terms (they have already passed in PPP terms)?

What the hell are you smoking?

I am not smoking any thing you more than me know it as a fact. Denial is one way but you know what is coming don't you just look at US history. Russia fought Germany in world war 2 and cold war was fought for supremacy.

 

[Nilgiri]

I am not smoking any thing you more than me know it as a fact. Denial is one way but you know what is coming don't you just look at US history. Russia fought Germany in world war 2 and cold war was fought for supremacy.

So you are saying there will be a US-China outright war very soon? You realise what that would do to both countries (and the whole world)?

Sure there can be all kinds of cold wars (esp in cyber and trade realm) between large powers (and that isn't really going to stop US GDP levels from being surpassed by countries with far larger populations), but full scale hot wars (with intent to physically destroy economic capacities) would be severe net negative for all those concerned...hence will most likely not happen.

 

[BHarwana]

So you are saying there will be a US-China outright war very soon? You realise what that would do to both countries (and the whole world)?

Sure there can be all kinds of cold wars (esp in cyber and trade realm) between large powers (and that isn't really going to stop US GDP levels from being surpassed by countries with far larger populations), but full scale hot wars (with intent to physically destroy economic capacities) would be severe net negative for all those concerned...hence will most likely not happen.

There will be no new war the war is already going on it is economic war and china is winning but when it will come to India USA will pest on Indian economy and counter China thus India will not cross. How else will USA compete China. USA is already pushing production to Africa so that means that they will pest on Indian economy for sure.

 

[Nilgiri]

There will be no new war the war is already going on it is economic war and china is winning but when it will come to India USA will pest on Indian economy and counter China thus India will not cross. How else will USA compete China. USA is already pushing production to Africa so that means that they will pest on Indian economy for sure.

You seem to think that economic capacities are zero sum games....that everything is simply sharing up one constant total of goods and services.

Please read up fundamental economics (especially what the LRAS is - if you even know what that is and how it shifts with time) before engaging in any further conversation here.

You may also want to check how much all major countries (including "rivals" like China) invest into India as well knowing where it is currently, where it was before and where it will be in future:

http://www.vccircle.com/news/econom...ts-23-bn-past-3-months-against-135-bn-2000-16

 

[BHarwana]

You seem to think that economic capacities are zero sum games....that everything is simply sharing up one constant total of goods and services.

Please read up fundamental economics (especially what the LRAS is - if you even know what that is and how it shifts with time) before engaging in any further conversation here.

You may also want to check how much all major countries (including "rivals" like China) invest into India as well knowing where it is currently, where it was before and where it will be in future:

Have I ever said India is not growing? I have agreed India is growing but USA has already started preparing a rival. No matter what ever USA do until China has the grip over rare earth elements it will continue to grow but India has no such card. So there will always be a threat.

 

[Nilgiri]

do until China has the grip over rare earth elements

You think the reserves of such are only found in China? Any long term global market restrictions by China will simply make production of it worldwide more economically competitive, and/or spur technological innovation away from using it....so at best its a short run economic tactic (and every major power will naturally acquire such, but their impact in an increasingly multi-polar world will be limited):

http://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/How-China-Threw-Its-Rare-Earths-Monopoly-Away.html

http://io9.gizmodo.com/how-chinas-rare-earth-weapon-went-from-boom-to-bust-1653638596

There are very zero things in the worldwide economy that have absolute supply from just one major country with massive worldwide demand. I suggest you look into how much Rare-Earth total production value is and how much it even represents as % of the total mining industry....much less world economy.

 

[BHarwana]

You think the reserves of such are only found in China? Any long term global market restrictions by China will simply make production of it worldwide more economically feasible, and/or spur technological innovation away from using it....so at best its a short run economic tactic (and every major power will naturally acquire such, but their impact in an increasingly multi-polar world will be limited):

The problem is that China is not restricting but producing it and selling it in form of developed tech and not selling the raw material to the world so you all will pay china for every thing you make.

 

[Nilgiri]

The problem is that China is not restricting but producing it and selling it in form of developed tech and not selling the raw material to the world so you all will pay china for every thing you make.

That is thus a market based force rather than uncontrolled monopoly and thus has only short run inelasticities....any use of it as an economic weapon already exposed that, as seen by the articles posted....given China neither has the only source of Rare Earths, nor the only know how in producing its derived economic goods.

China knows this quite well actually, thats why they never did that measure again after they tried it with Japan.

If you can produce finished products cheaper than anyone else, why would you erode that advantage by limiting supply (and thus increasing price and thus spur supply chains elsewhere)? Even in the short run you will damage yourself when you exercise such, its why China went from 97% to 70% in rare earth world production because of the earlier measure they undertook (and it will simply slip again long term if they do it again, the full effects of which are still ongoing).

This applies to any industry where someone enjoys absolute and/or comparative advantages. The burden of insulating industries fiscally has a very poor cost/benefit ratio, especially when rationalising long term.

Read this please:

As of now, China still produces at least 70% of the world's rare earth elements. But its market share seems likely to diminish further and, more importantly, Beijing's attempt to use its supply of REE as a political or economic weapon has proven to be ineffective.

Can we make rare earth elements artificially? I mean in our labs.

You could, but would be currently very expensive and thus economically not feasible.

 

[BHarwana]

As of now, China still produces at least 70% of the world's rare earth elements. But its market share seems likely to diminish further and, more importantly, Beijing's attempt to use its supply of REE as a political or economic weapon has proven to be ineffective.

This is just merely a justification to satisfy one's argument in the actual world they are so wide spread that world cannot economically extract them and China is doing so. So for now every one has a problem and India has no solution for it.