India will top China: Howard

[gpit]

India will top China: Howard

Daniel Lane
October 31, 2010

FORMER prime minister John Howard has predicted China's one-child policy and its political philosophy will allow India to supersede it as the dominant nation in Asia before the end of the 21st century.

Mr Howard also said China would never overtake the US as the world's military or financial superpower.

''I think China is a rising power but I do not share the view China will ever outstrip the United States as an economic power or military power,'' he said at a Sydney Morning Herald/Dymocks literary lunch to promote his autobiography, Lazarus Rising.

''I think one of the problems China [has] is eventually she will have to decide whether she can maintain a position where the country is economically liberal and open and, politically, still closed and controlled.

''I think at the end there'll be an unravelling and they'll have to make … quite a hard decision.

''The other problem China has is she will grow old before she grows rich, she's got a terrible demographic problem because of the one-child policy. [China] is a rapidly ageing country, whereas a country like India is a younger country and I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the century India is a more powerful country.''

Mr Howard said changing power bases in Asia justified his government's decision to forge new regional alliances while strengthening Australia's ties to its traditional allies.

''I think you can have both, we never had to choose between our history and geography,'' he said.

The former PM also paid tribute to his wife, Janette, revealing the pair differed on many issues, including capital punishment.

''Janette is a very intelligent independently minded person,'' said Mr Howard.

''Broadly speaking, my wife and I disagree on capital punishment.

''As a lawyer, I'm not really in favour of capital punishment … I always think the law can make mistakes but Janette has a slightly differing view to me.''

 

[Abhishek_]

another damn India vs China thread...get over it people, these two nations will come to friendly terms and prosper together. We house half the world population, if anything, developed nations should be encouraging better sino-indian ties so we can pull our poor out of poverty.
these silly comments to incite us against each other is getting tiring and frankly quite childish..

As for reform in china, let the chinese decide. They know what works best for them

 

[siegecrossbow]

Does Howard seriously think that the Chinese are so stupid that we'll wipe ourselves out through artificial birth control?

 

[GodlessBastard]

Sino-Indian relations are the single most decisive factor in determining the course of this century.

There are only two countries who wish for India and China to be enemies: the USA and Pakistan.

All Indians should ignore the provocations coming from these two countries and continue to strive towards greater cooperation.

 

[below_freezing]

Why is it always the Australians that make racist remarks and racist actions?

 

[no_name]

I didn't feel he was making racist remarks.

I'd say not to take this seriously. 30 years ago no one predicted where china will be today.

 

[jbond197]

^^^Being Aussie means being racist so don't be surprised.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Howard and Hillary will make a good couple when it comes to flattering India.

 

[jbond197]

I didn't feel he was making racist remarks.

I'd say not to take this seriously. 30 years ago no one predicted where china will be today.

I would say west is trying its best to create tensions between India and China. China had shown world what you can achieve with hard work India is following the suit. The world is scared with the progress of two Asian giants and they are trying all the ways that they don't come together.

 

[StingRoy]

@jbond... you have raised a valid point here... we are seeing more and more articles these days comparing both rising economies... and everyone want to jump on the train making a comment.

The challenge remains in how the PMs ignore the western propaganda to establish a good relationship. I think once the world sees a strong partnership between India and China, they will keep their mouth shut.


On the issue of population.... China should not worry... in case they fall short of workforce in future, they can always borrow them from India... we seem to be having no shortage of them.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

Howard and Hillary will make a good couple when it comes to flattering India.

You forgot David Cameron too.....

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

On the issue of population.... China should not worry... in case they fall short of workforce in future, they can always borrow them from India... we seem to be having no shortage of them.

Thanks for the offer buddy.

But we can always relax the one-child policy if needed, or even remove it completely, if it becomes necessary.

Such demographic changes take decades to come into effect, there is plenty of time to modify any relevant policies.

 

[dbc]

Sino-Indian relations are the single most decisive factor in determining the course of this century.

There are only two countries who wish for India and China to be enemies: the USA and Pakistan.

All Indians should ignore the provocations coming from these two countries and continue to strive towards greater cooperation.

This is news to me, can you point me to a US foreign policy document that validates your assertion? On the other hand, lets save some time and conclude you 'let one rip' hoping no one would notice.

 

[Jade]

I to some extent agree with Howard. Although China did a commendable job, as Howard says, I feel ‘China will grow old before it can become rich’. Another important factor that differentiates China from India, and I feel more important than the demographics, is the entrepreneurial culture. Most of the actions that had build or building the Indian economy and the markets are driven by private sector and by first generation entrepreneurs, while in China the economy is mainly driven by the Government actions. In long run private action ration resources much better than Government ever will.

 

[Jade]

Does Howard seriously think that the Chinese are so stupid that we'll wipe ourselves out through artificial birth control?

Some decisions which were taken two to three decades ago and were proper in those time may have some repercussions in future.

This has nothing to do with wiping out the population. The logic is simple more young people more productive resources