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India-Pakistan – Knotty Times

Bhushan

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India-Pakistan – Knotty Times

Even as there is national attention and some mirth about the emerging Sania-Shoaib wedding episode, the fact is that Indo-Pak relations remain knotty.


The South Asian beehive continues to be ruffled over issues of water-sharing, terror, big defense acquisitions, Line-of-Control infiltration, roles in Afghanistan, and the centrality of Kashmir as a global flashpoint.

2010 began with Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari’s evocations that his country was ready to wage a ‘1000 year ideological war’ with India over the Kashmir dispute.

The bona fide of Zardari’s ‘ideological warfare’ encompassed military and diplomatic negotiations, and increasing global interventions. The same man who had in October 2008 called Kashmiri separatists “terrorists” in an interview with The Wall Street Journal chose to be their savior – all over again.

Then Indian offer for a “standalone” foreign secretary level talks predictably moved toward “storking-the-fox” scenario - - Pakistan again raised the bogey of Kashmir and Indian foreign policy mandarins naturally pitched for discussions on terror.

No wonder the talks with “very little on offer” yielded a naught.

Though the ebb of constant engagement via “composite dialogue”, confidence building measures in trade and travel may be deployed to achieve congeniality, one cannot deny the play of power in the existing international domain.

It is not surprising how the banter of Kashmir emanates from Islamabad when the internal security situation of Pakistan moves from bad to worse. Chasing the Taliban and Al Qaeda groups, especially the Haqqani network, are the US forces and the Pak- administration under Washington’s insistent pressure thus also helping Islamabad to continue to retain its prime status in world politics and appropriate interest.

This may also be more to do with India’s wait and watch and non aggressive stance that has been the hallmarks of its diplomacy so far.

Indeed, the unfolding scenario appears to have driven home the decisiveness of the moment, as some re-firming of India’s foreign policy seems to have been initiated as Pune and Kabul witnessed lethal terrorist attacks on Indians in the second month of the year.

This evolution of India’s strategic thinking from “semantics and grammar” and help in reconstruction (in Afghanistan) to willingness to engage with regional powers that be in the AfPak is being indicated by some reports. And this also propels the need for infusion of meaningful action and adoption of “playing forward” and “scoring” by India.

India’s multilayered and complex approach has yielded dividends in pursuing overseas energy assets in Venezuela, Russia, America, Iran and Myanmar even as it has concluded the civilian Indo-US nuclear deal.

So will India have to play with different cards in South Asian affairs? Any US policy on AfPak will require reintegration and reconciliation with Taliban in the region which automatically extends Pakistan’s crucial role. This will then translate into Pakistan gaining a favorable position to negotiate its interests at other places.

As it is Pakistan has cried hoarse about its heavy security deployment along the eastern borders resulting in shortage of military forces along western front and also opposed any military training to be imparted to Afghan soldiers by the Indian Army.

To check Pakistan and without losing on too much time New Delhi may want to walk along with the international community and other players who have displayed willingness to work with the Taliban. The Afghan government led by President Hamid Karzai is already under pressure to form the ‘loya jirga’ before the April 29 deadline.

Given the tough regional security scenario, India’s stepping up its participation in the road map for reconciliation will be advantageous in the long term. Delhi cannot afford to rely on the USA completely and rather it would make sense to reshape and re mobilize its regional policies.

For a more paradigm setting approach India will have to deepen its presence in Afghanistan and negotiate with a weak Pakistani democratic dispensation from a point of vantage.

As displayed at various forums of climate change and trade talks, only a proactive approach by India can engineer better solutions and accrue better times.
 
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