Paan Singh
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Two of China's three large neighbors, Japan and Russia, have determined their policies toward China for the near future. Japan, emboldened by the US pivot to the Pacific, is adopting a hostile attitude. Russia, antagonized by US attempts to weaken it, has increased coordination with China. But India's policy toward China is still developing.
Many in the US, and some in India, are attempting to create an "anti-China" US-India strategic alliance. A recent article in the leading Indian newspaper The Hindu by US and Indian based analysts Seema Sirohi and Samir Saran, accurately identified forces promoting this: "In the US, bipartisan support for India is public and enthusiastic. [ ] In India, the support is pledged quietly and firmly and repeated through itinerant former foreign secretaries and retired generals [ ] perhaps the most interesting development is the real entry of the US Defense Department to try to 'own and guide' the India relationship."
An all-out India-China war is highly unlikely even if both sides necessarily have to draw up contingency plans for it. Given China's economy is three times larger than India's, the latter's military can easily calculate it would lose such a war fought with conventional weapons.
Therefore to discharge their duty to protect the nation, India's military certainly considers it has to prepare for an extreme scenario by reliance on nuclear weapons and good relations with the US.
But precisely because the possibility of such a war is remote, it does not play a determining political role in India. And neither it nor China has any interest in provoking border disputes.
One of India's leading strategic analysts, Mohan Guruswamy, author of Chasing the Dragon: Will India Catchup with China?, accurately summarized the situation. "After 45 years of not shooting at each other, and not even confronting each other by being at the same contested space at the same time, local commanders have evolved a pattern of ritualistic behavior and local bonhomie."
Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie's visit to India in September was considered a success by both sides. Strikingly India decided to buy its new generation of fighter aircraft from France, not the US.
In contrast to the desires of those promoting an "anti-China" alliance, India's internal politics have been determined by how to achieve economic development, not by remote possibilities of military conflicts with China.
In the economic field, India's business leaders, politicians and population have a strong interest in cooperation with China and have been prepared to overrule anti-China pressures within parts of India's security establishment.
Initially a trailblazing role was played by individual Indian business leaders such as Anil Ambani, one of two brothers in India's richest family. In October 2010, Ambani's Reliance Power ordered $10 billion of equipment from Shanghai Electric Group. In January 2012, a Chinese bank consortium loaned Ambani's telecommunications company $1.2 billion.
India's business leadership also directly faced down significant pressures from parts of India's security establishment.
In 2005, Chinese firm Huawei was blocked from supplying equipment to India's BSNL mobile phone service. In early 2010, the Indian Central Bureau of Investigation insisted on canceling remaining parts of this contract, and pressure was put on India's telecoms companies not to buy Chinese equipment.
This was opposed by India's leading telecom providers, which had made financial calculations based on purchases from Huawei and ZTE. Tata, India's most important industrial grouping, proceeded to buy Huawei's equipment.
The establishment of the India-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, which first met in September 2011, broadened such economic contacts. Such positions are naturally not pro-China but pro-Indian. But to pursue India's own interests they reject subordination to anti-China alliances.
Some in China argue it faces a "C shaped" encirclement, with only Russia not against China. This is an error. Japan's leaders are subordinate to the US. India's leaders conceive themselves as leaders of a great and independent country. It would be a serious mistake not to understand the difference.
India hesitant over China, but not hostile despite US influence - Globaltimes.cn
Many in the US, and some in India, are attempting to create an "anti-China" US-India strategic alliance. A recent article in the leading Indian newspaper The Hindu by US and Indian based analysts Seema Sirohi and Samir Saran, accurately identified forces promoting this: "In the US, bipartisan support for India is public and enthusiastic. [ ] In India, the support is pledged quietly and firmly and repeated through itinerant former foreign secretaries and retired generals [ ] perhaps the most interesting development is the real entry of the US Defense Department to try to 'own and guide' the India relationship."
An all-out India-China war is highly unlikely even if both sides necessarily have to draw up contingency plans for it. Given China's economy is three times larger than India's, the latter's military can easily calculate it would lose such a war fought with conventional weapons.
Therefore to discharge their duty to protect the nation, India's military certainly considers it has to prepare for an extreme scenario by reliance on nuclear weapons and good relations with the US.
But precisely because the possibility of such a war is remote, it does not play a determining political role in India. And neither it nor China has any interest in provoking border disputes.
One of India's leading strategic analysts, Mohan Guruswamy, author of Chasing the Dragon: Will India Catchup with China?, accurately summarized the situation. "After 45 years of not shooting at each other, and not even confronting each other by being at the same contested space at the same time, local commanders have evolved a pattern of ritualistic behavior and local bonhomie."
Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie's visit to India in September was considered a success by both sides. Strikingly India decided to buy its new generation of fighter aircraft from France, not the US.
In contrast to the desires of those promoting an "anti-China" alliance, India's internal politics have been determined by how to achieve economic development, not by remote possibilities of military conflicts with China.
In the economic field, India's business leaders, politicians and population have a strong interest in cooperation with China and have been prepared to overrule anti-China pressures within parts of India's security establishment.
Initially a trailblazing role was played by individual Indian business leaders such as Anil Ambani, one of two brothers in India's richest family. In October 2010, Ambani's Reliance Power ordered $10 billion of equipment from Shanghai Electric Group. In January 2012, a Chinese bank consortium loaned Ambani's telecommunications company $1.2 billion.
India's business leadership also directly faced down significant pressures from parts of India's security establishment.
In 2005, Chinese firm Huawei was blocked from supplying equipment to India's BSNL mobile phone service. In early 2010, the Indian Central Bureau of Investigation insisted on canceling remaining parts of this contract, and pressure was put on India's telecoms companies not to buy Chinese equipment.
This was opposed by India's leading telecom providers, which had made financial calculations based on purchases from Huawei and ZTE. Tata, India's most important industrial grouping, proceeded to buy Huawei's equipment.
The establishment of the India-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, which first met in September 2011, broadened such economic contacts. Such positions are naturally not pro-China but pro-Indian. But to pursue India's own interests they reject subordination to anti-China alliances.
Some in China argue it faces a "C shaped" encirclement, with only Russia not against China. This is an error. Japan's leaders are subordinate to the US. India's leaders conceive themselves as leaders of a great and independent country. It would be a serious mistake not to understand the difference.
India hesitant over China, but not hostile despite US influence - Globaltimes.cn
