India and U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement: is it about energy?

[Neo]

India – us nuclear cooperation agreement: is it about energy?
By Adil Sultan

The proposed Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement generated an interesting debate between the proponents and the opponents of the nuclear deal. Delay in the US congressional approval due to concerns raised by those who were opposing the deal has highlighted the influence of the Washington think tanks on policy making processes within the US.

Some of the negative implications highlighted by the non-proliferationists have recently been proven correct after North Korea’s decision to go nuclear. It may further deter those who were already skeptical about the deal and may put the whole process of approval and subsequent implementation of the nuclear agreement in the backburner.

There are some who still believe that because both sides have made heavy political investment therefore it is unlikely that President Bush and PM Singh would allow any deal breakers to impede the whole initiative. It is possible that under US pressure India might agree to some of the preconditions being proposed by the Senate for the eventual approval and implementation of the agreement. Unless PM Singh makes some crucial compromises, the concerns highlighted earlier will continue to overshadow the ongoing debate.

The Deal is about Energy?

The proponents of the deal argue that the initiative is actually an effort to strengthen India’s ability to expand its civilian nuclear energy’s contribution to India’s large and rapidly growing electricity needs. US Secretary of State Condoleza Rice also argued that; “Civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India will help meet its rising energy needs without increasing its reliance on unstable foreign sources of oil and gas, such as nearby Iran.”

If this is to be true then why should India not place maximum number of its nuclear facilities under the civilian head, thus benefiting most from foreign supplied fuel for its civilian designated facilities? The fact is that India’s nuclear power production is just under 3% of the total electricity power generation. Other sources are coal, oil, gas, wind, etc. The net gain once the nuclear agreement materializes would be increase in nuclear power production to a maximum of 6.7%. It is difficult to understand how this increase of 3.5 - 4% would bring economic and environmental revolution in India. Experts like Edward J Markey, while testifying before the House International Relations Committee said; “In 2005, only 1% of India’s installed electrical capacity was fuelled by oil and only 2.7% by nuclear power….Throughout the next century, Coal will continue to be the major player in India’s electricity sector. India plans to build additional 213 coal plants by 2012. These plants will produce the bulk of India’s electricity. A realistic, safe, and practical plan for partnership between the United States and India would be a Clean-coal cooperative, not a nuclear one.” Another expert on nuclear energy Leonard Weiss agrees and said that an aggressive plan by India of improved energy efficiency could substitute for all the future power output from nuclear reactors currently being planned in India between now and 2020. Based on the above-mentioned facts, it becomes difficult to conclude that the need for nuclear energy is indeed the driving motive behind nuclear initiative, as it would hardly make any difference in India’s growing energy demand.

India does not have Uranium Shortage?

The second contradiction that surfaced more recently in defense of the proposed nuclear agreement is that India does not have uranium shortage for its civilian or military programs. Mr Ashley Tellis, who is one of the architect of the nuclear agreement, in his paper Atoms for War wrote; “India has sufficient reserves to sustain the largest nuclear weapons program that can be envisaged…possesses enough uranium to sustain more than three times its current and planned capacity as far as nuclear power production is concerned…this basic reality will not be altered whether Bush-Singh nuclear cooperation initiative now being reviewed by the US Congress is successfully consummated or not.” He has also termed one other proliferation concern that the US supplied fuel would free up India’s indigenous reserves purely for producing nuclear weapons, as ‘fungibility’ thesis. According to him, India possesses requisite Uranium reserves to build as many weapons as it might realistically desire. The question is, if India is self-sufficient to meet its civilian and military needs then why PM Singh’s government is desperate to have a deal at any cost and risk political backlash from within India, and face international condemnation for undermining global non-proliferation rules.

In fact, this fallacy of India being self sufficient in uranium reserves has been exposed by 2005-06 Indian Department of Energy report, in which it acknowledges that India has meager reserves of Uranium. India’s leading national magazine ‘Frontline’ in its last Dec-Jan issue also concluded that India’s nuclear program is heading for a crisis, due to uranium shortage in the country.

It is a well-known fact that contrary to what it propagates, India does not have uranium reserves to meet both its growing civilian needs and its ambitious military program. The proposed nuclear cooperation would enable India to use imported fuel to be used in its civilian facilities for power generation, thus freeing up the indigenous uranium reserves purely for military purpose. According to a former Indian intelligence official, as a result of the nuclear agreement India would be able to build as many as 50 warheads per year.

Intangible Proliferation Concern.

One of the projected advantages of the nuclear deal is that access to new reactor technology from abroad would give India’s nuclear engineers exposure to new advanced designs that maximize efficiency and output. This could lead to intangible form of proliferation of nuclear technology.

The advanced nuclear know-how could be misused by the Indian scientists in making qualitative and quantitative improvement in India’s NWs and their delivery systems. The separation of civilian and military nuclear facilities may be possible but it would be difficult to separate scientists working in civil and military facilities. India has a past record in which it received nuclear and space technology for peaceful purposes but misused it for making NWs and their delivery systems. As Gary Milhollin, another expert on nuclear issues while testifying before the Congress stated; “India, in fact, is the first country to develop long range nuclear missile from a civilian space program. India’s Agni missile tested in 1989, was built by using the design of the American ‘Scout’ space rocket. India imported the blue prints from NASA under the cover of peaceful space cooperation.”

Conclusion

The proposed nuclear cooperation agreement could be under greater scrutiny after the November elections in the US. There could be a possibility that the new Congress may initiate the whole process of approval from the very start. Making country specific exceptions is detrimental for the global non-proliferation regime, as it provides incentive to the threshold states to break free from their non-proliferation obligations, as has been proven by the North Korean nuclear test.

If the US military industrial complex is keen to draw maximum economic incentives from the proposed nuclear cooperation, it may very well push the Administration for a criteria-based approach that may benefit all aspirants without any discrimination, as acquisition of civil nuclear technology is inalienable right of all.

http://www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?157801

 

[Goodperson]

Yes it is about Energy as India energy by Leaps and bounds if it has to sustain and increase its growth levels.
Currently only 2-3% of power generation is done by Nuclear sources of Energy. But problem is quiet a few of Indian nuclear reactors are used for Nuclear reaserch and is related to defence

But in the nuclear deal India has agreed to separate Nuclear and civilian reactors and obey to IAEA safeguards and prevent misuse

 

[Neo]

Yes it is about Energy as India energy by Leaps and bounds if it has to sustain and increase its growth levels.
Currently only 2-3% of power generation is done by Nuclear sources of Energy. But problem is quiet a few of Indian nuclear reactors are used for Nuclear reaserch and is related to defence.

Its true that India is energy hungry and demand is growing faster than expected.
But the controvercial deal is also transparent regarding American interest.
1-Countering China
2-Securing oil supply from world markets
2-Securing a nuclear ally in the region

But in the nuclear deal India has agreed to separate Nuclear and civilian reactors and obey to IAEA safeguards and prevent misuse.

I agree but it's not a guarantee for future.
India can pull out anytime she feels the need to do so and have all the modern infrastructure for herself.
The deal doesn't cover 8 or so existing reactors which will now be taken off the grid and dedicated to produce plutonium for defence purposes.
India will conduct new tests in future!

 

[advaita]

India will conduct new tests in future!

Your ideas seem good. But new tests. Come on you underestimate Indian brain power, Also the American brain power.

Most likely scenario is in last 10 years Indians have made reasonable progress in computing based tests (for want of a better word). US probably came to know of this and decided to accept Indian nucs since it could not stop the progress. Wanted to stop Pakistan from developing Thermo nucs. I think you guys should start worrying about FMCT.
If China does not come to the rescue of your research then good chance that they want to mend fences with Indians (chinese are more interested in money then anything else) and hence more trouble for Mahatma Abdul Quadir Khan.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

Well I dontt care if India pulls out from the 123 Agreement we also have one from France and Russia. Sweden is also signing a traty with us in the real future. All we needed was the IAEA nod and the NSG clearence...it is a trillion dollar business and no country wise enough will pull out of it. And about the nuclear stockpile, we have enough tritium available by distillig the heavy water. It is stored in form of tritium carbide(note:- that is why India stuck with heavy water reactors instead of light water reactors).

 

[Rin]

The primary purpose is US covert operation to make India counter China

 

[ant80]

India does not have Uranium Shortage?

The second contradiction that surfaced more recently in defense of the proposed nuclear agreement is that India does not have uranium shortage for its civilian or military programs. Mr Ashley Tellis, who is one of the architect of the nuclear agreement, in his paper Atoms for War wrote; “India has sufficient reserves to sustain the largest nuclear weapons program that can be envisaged…possesses enough uranium to sustain more than three times its current and planned capacity as far as nuclear power production is concerned…this basic reality will not be altered whether Bush-Singh nuclear cooperation initiative now being reviewed by the US Congress is successfully consummated or not.” He has also termed one other proliferation concern that the US supplied fuel would free up India’s indigenous reserves purely for producing nuclear weapons, as ‘fungibility’ thesis. According to him, India possesses requisite Uranium reserves to build as many weapons as it might realistically desire. The question is, if India is self-sufficient to meet its civilian and military needs then why PM Singh’s government is desperate to have a deal at any cost and risk political backlash from within India, and face international condemnation for undermining global non-proliferation rules.

In fact, this fallacy of India being self sufficient in uranium reserves has been exposed by 2005-06 Indian Department of Energy report, in which it acknowledges that India has meager reserves of Uranium. India’s leading national magazine ‘Frontline’ in its last Dec-Jan issue also concluded that India’s nuclear program is heading for a crisis, due to uranium shortage in the country.

It is a well-known fact that contrary to what it propagates, India does not have uranium reserves to meet both its growing civilian needs and its ambitious military program. The proposed nuclear cooperation would enable India to use imported fuel to be used in its civilian facilities for power generation, thus freeing up the indigenous uranium reserves purely for military purpose. According to a former Indian intelligence official, as a result of the nuclear agreement India would be able to build as many as 50 warheads per year.

This part is quite untrue. Several of Indian nuclear reactors have been running at less than 50% capacity due to lack of Uranium. In fact, the holy grail of Indian nuclear research has been the transition to a Thorium based reactor because India has 25% of the world's Thorium reserves. This is because of the lack of U and the abundance of Thorium.

 

[blackcobran]

This part is quite untrue. Several of Indian nuclear reactors have been running at less than 50% capacity due to lack of Uranium. In fact, the holy grail of Indian nuclear research has been the transition to a Thorium based reactor because India has 25% of the world's Thorium reserves. This is because of the lack of U and the abundance of Thorium.

Oh yeah what ever they say about u(INDIA) that's untrue and what ever they say about us(PAKISTAN) such as "our nuclear bombs are unsafe as the westren media propagate lies against us(PAKISTAN) that's true right.
When we were asking France(the trusted military supplier) to help us in nulcear tech then ISRAEL must have put pressure on AMERICA TO STOP FRANCE from helping PAKISTAN.The other thing is offcourse that YOU'r the only peacful user of weapons like (the Usa and ISrael) and you have bought the weapons to play such as attack heli's and fighter aircraft etc etc,they are to move passangers from one city to another city of INDIA right??

 

[GUNS-N- ROSES]

Its true that India is energy hungry and demand is growing faster than expected.
But the controvercial deal is also transparent regarding American interest.
1-Countering China
2-Securing oil supply from world markets
2-Securing a nuclear ally in the region


I agree but it's not a guarantee for future.
India can pull out anytime she feels the need to do so and have all the modern infrastructure for herself.
The deal doesn't cover 8 or so existing reactors which will now be taken off the grid and dedicated to produce plutonium for defence purposes.
India will conduct new tests in future!

R u astrlogist who has knack of giving right predictions? if so, please be generous enough to tell us winner of this world cup so that we all can bet and make some quick money. i am sure even pakistani members wouldnt mind that.

on topic, Indo-US nuclear agree ment is based on unwritten understanding, if india tests in future then US is at liberty to short close agreement. however as special exemption india is permitted to maintain its certain reactors away from international safeguards. so our weapons research prog is safe. The main advantage we wd get is basically ending of nuclear apartheid against us. we can now have collaborations with US/UK/Rusia and anyone else. It also assures us of regular and uninterrupted supply of nuclear fuel.

US did this agreement with us because we have now become their strategic partner. period.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

@Guns & Roses

Er........you are replying to a 5 year old post,and that too of a member who is long long gone,and many Indians miss him

 

[BlueDot_in_Space]

deleted.------------------------------------------

 

[tallboy123]

why do u wake up a years old thread..

 

[angeldemon_007]

The primary purpose is US covert operation to make India counter China

We are not capable to fight China. If US wants this, they will have to support fully, like they did you guys...

The deal doesn't cover 8 or so existing reactors which will now be taken off the grid and dedicated to produce plutonium for defence purposes.

No it covers all the existing nuclear plants also. If they are civilian, they will be separated and will be opened for IAEA. With this deal,India won't be able to produce more fissile material for its nuclear weapons at-least for a decade as we don't want to come in the limelight.

I never understood why Pakistan is against this deal ?? I mean its a civilian deal, it will never effect Pakistan's security in anyways. We have more energy needs and thats why we opening this. We also have huge plan to develop electricity through solar energy.

Pakistan does not need any such kind of deal as far as i know. I have question, i am not aware of the presence of coal and water suitable for generating in Pakistan ?? Is their a shortage of these resources in Pakistan ?// Please enlighten us...If yes, still you guys can get it from China. Why you guys want expensive nuclear energy ??//

 

[Tigershark]

India is a rogue nuclear state which exploded nukes in contravention of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (which spurred a regional nuclear arms race which caused Pakistan to go nuclear as well). For the US to support a rogue nuclear state because it is a potential US ally exposes the American nuclear double standard. This stance will only encourage other countries like Iran and North Korea to develop their nuclear weapon capability. In the end, more and more nations will have nukes and nuclear war will become more likely. Great going Bush and Obama.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

India is a rogue nuclear state which exploded nukes in contravention of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. For the US to support a rogue nuclear state because it is a potential US ally exposes the American nuclear double standard. This stance will only encourage other countries like Iran and North Korea to develop their nuclear weapon capability. In the end, more and more nations will have nukes and nuclear war will become more likely. Great going Bush and Obama.

Did you bother to check the fact that India is a non-signatory of NPT?