India: $222 billion debt maturing this fiscal to put pressure on forex kitty

[BHarwana]

Mumbai: Nearly $222 billion of shortterm debt, equal to about half of India’s foreign exchange reserves, will come up for maturity this fiscal year, ringing alarm bells about external sector stability.
This debt will mature by the end of March 2019, latest status on external debt indicates. This is 52 per cent of India’s forex reserves at the end of March 2018. According to RBI’ weekly forex data, reserves have dropped $18 billion from there by the end June and another $2 billion in July.

The rupee has lost more than 5 per cent to the dollar since this April, as foreign investors pulled out of Indian markets and rising crude oil prices increased demand for dollars to pay for imports. The central bank has sold about $20 billion of dollars in the spot and forward markets to defend the local currency.
Short-term debt liabilities are expected to rise further to fund import demand. With no corresponding pick up in inflows, the strain on the rupee is also expected to add to local inflationary pressure. The central bank has already raised its benchmark policy rate-repo rate twice since June to rein in inflation and attract foreign investments.
The short-term debt liability and increasing import cost are expected to weigh on current account deficit, which already has more than doubled to 1.9 per cent of GDP in March.
Meanwhile, the central bank is expected to continue selling dollars to defend the rupee.

If the rupee continues to drop despite dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, some economists expect the government and RBI to consider the issue special bonds, like what they did in 1999 and 2013. India issued Resurgent India Bonds in 1999 and launched a special foreign currency non-resident deposits scheme to garner foreign reserves. The deposit scheme in 2013 helped the RBI raise around $30-35 billion and calm the rupee.
The finance ministry has reportedly met economists to consider feasibility of such an issue. “There is a need to come out with some innovative scheme to prop up reserves,” said an economist with a large company.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report that if the rupee touches Rs 70 to the dollar and the inflows do not pick up, then there could be an NRI bond issue by the end of December to prop up reserves.

https://m.economictimes.com/markets...ssure-on-forex-kitty/articleshow/65287657.cms


@SunilM

 

[Path-Finder]

Mumbai: Nearly $222 billion of shortterm debt, equal to about half of India’s foreign exchange reserves, will come up for maturity this fiscal year, ringing alarm bells about external sector stability.
This debt will mature by the end of March 2019, latest status on external debt indicates. This is 52 per cent of India’s forex reserves at the end of March 2018. According to RBI’ weekly forex data, reserves have dropped $18 billion from there by the end June and another $2 billion in July.

The rupee has lost more than 5 per cent to the dollar since this April, as foreign investors pulled out of Indian markets and rising crude oil prices increased demand for dollars to pay for imports. The central bank has sold about $20 billion of dollars in the spot and forward markets to defend the local currency.
Short-term debt liabilities are expected to rise further to fund import demand. With no corresponding pick up in inflows, the strain on the rupee is also expected to add to local inflationary pressure. The central bank has already raised its benchmark policy rate-repo rate twice since June to rein in inflation and attract foreign investments.
The short-term debt liability and increasing import cost are expected to weigh on current account deficit, which already has more than doubled to 1.9 per cent of GDP in March.
Meanwhile, the central bank is expected to continue selling dollars to defend the rupee.

If the rupee continues to drop despite dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, some economists expect the government and RBI to consider the issue special bonds, like what they did in 1999 and 2013. India issued Resurgent India Bonds in 1999 and launched a special foreign currency non-resident deposits scheme to garner foreign reserves. The deposit scheme in 2013 helped the RBI raise around $30-35 billion and calm the rupee.
The finance ministry has reportedly met economists to consider feasibility of such an issue. “There is a need to come out with some innovative scheme to prop up reserves,” said an economist with a large company.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report that if the rupee touches Rs 70 to the dollar and the inflows do not pick up, then there could be an NRI bond issue by the end of December to prop up reserves.

https://m.economictimes.com/markets...ssure-on-forex-kitty/articleshow/65287657.cms


@SunilM

#FakeNews there is no debt.

 

[BHarwana]

Like I said the issue will begin to surface soon. I am never wrong in my financial analysis and this speaks a lot on what I have been saying for past month. Indian debt about to increase and rupee continue to fall foreign reserves going down. Yes India has few month of time to show the world good face of indian economy but is failing and soon every one will realize it.
The cost of this good face was $20 billion so far and if RBI continues to support rupee the foreign reserves of India will further fall.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

according to a survey, an indian politician invests 10 crore INR in elections to gain power and then while in office makes a profit of 60 crore INR in corruption.

In india there is a realization amongst educated and its sane population abt this critical threat to their country n its rise.

Thats why in cities like Dehli which has a high literacy rate amongst the indian urban overall population and with the steady influx of migration from rural to urban areas in india, this realization is now in high levels amongst even middle and lower middle classes of India as well. Thats why AAP's arun kejriwal has won in dehli with 67 seats out of 70!!! who is from middle class and realizes this threat to their country and society.

WE hope that like Pakistan, indians can also break this two party monopoly system in the central government in the future and bring in someone who is truly sincere to their country......Insaniyat, insaaf or human development py focus kary.
Below is a little assessment of India's future, hope yr common people wake up and get their act together.

 

[Chakar The Great]

according to a survey, an indian politician invests 10 crore INR in elections to gain power and then while in office makes a profit of 60 crore INR in corruption.

In india there is a realization amongst educated and its sane population abt this critical threat to their country n its rise.

Thats why in cities like Dehli which has a high literacy rate amongst the indian urban overall population and with the steady influx of migration from rural to urban areas in india, this realization is now in high levels amongst even middle and lower middle classes of India as well. Thats why AAP's arun kejriwal has won in dehli with 67 seats out of 70!!! who is from middle class and realizes this threat to their country and society.

WE hope that like Pakistan, indians can also break this two party monopoly system in the central government in the future and bring in someone who is truly sincere to their country......Insaniyat, insaaf or human development py focus kary.
Below is a little assessment of India's future, hope yr common people wake up and get their act together.

India has no third party option like PTI. Indians are very slow to accept change it will take them few more decades to come up with the third party into main stream politics. BJP will win with clear majority.

 

[BHarwana]

Indian govt is already feeling the pain of what I said days ago. To stop the out flow of currency RBI used its first tool and increased the interest rate to 6.5% but now this will effect Indian economic growth and slow down the economy. The economic tools always come with collateral damage. It is better for RBI to let the rupee devalue rather than using such tolls to further damage Indian economy. Instead of decreasing the buying power of indian people buy letting rupee free float Modi govt is decreasing the buying power by hiking interest rates so that blame don't falls on govt and economic publicity of India remains as good and progressive market this really shows the true nature of indian economy. The Indian govt is in trouble and giving supporting pillars instead of bringing in investment.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

India has no third party option like PTI. Indians are very slow to accept change it will take them few more decades to come up with the third party into main stream politics. BJP will win with clear majority.

@BHarwana is right, also u can see from this report too, they dont have this much time!
Indian constitution also recognizes Bharat as a union of states not as one nation. In india there is a lot of diversity, where 875 languages r spoken unlike Pakistan india also has abt 10 or so national languages.

Its basically a union of people who share a very little in common with eachother, its just this economic and social development that keeps them intact, this is a realization we Muslims reached by ruling india, in the era of Emperor Akbar, thats why he was forced to marry a hindu Rajpoot Jodha Bai. And then made their son together his successor........and later till aurangzeb era we were able to successfully make then Hindustan a Golden Sparrow.

Thats why, i said, If India wants to stay intact, they must get their act together and work for its development socially and on justice itself. These two things are the only real reasons Pakistan was also made by Muslims of India, and these also r the two reason why its future balkanization can commence as well.

Indians need to start learning fast like us Pakistanis and for that to happen they first need to do the diagnosis of the problems facing their country in intelligent and logical way, rather then by arrogance and superiority complex guided by mere emotions, for their own good and for the sake of their country's unity.

@Zarvan yr inputs r required.

 

[cloud4000]

I guess India will have to ask IMF for a bailout.

 

[Crixus]

Hey your prediction about 6th Aug ... rupee is still at 69instead of 73 as predicted by you ????????????

Like I said the issue will begin to surface soon. I am never wrong in my financial analysis and this speaks a lot on what I have been saying for past month. Indian debt about to increase and rupee continue to fall foreign reserves going down. Yes India has few month of time to show the world good face of indian economy but is failing and soon every one will realize it.
The cost of this good face was $20 billion so far and if RBI continues to support rupee the foreign reserves of India will further fall.

We need 12 billionbail out on emergency basis

I guess India will have to ask IMF for a bailout.

@BHarwana Lol ..... now you guys are doing good loan vs bad loan like good terrorist vs bad terrorists
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/6-bi...12-billion-imf-loan-is-good-halal-pti.571357/

 

[BHarwana]

Hey your prediction about 6th Aug ... rupee is still at 69instead of 73 as predicted by you ????????????

We need 12 billionbail out on emergency basis

Yep Indian rupee is at 69 from 68 instead of 72 but Indian foreign reserves are falling but now the depreciation of rupee will start at a much faster pace and let's see how many billions RBI is ready to waste to support rupee as in the current state India has foreign reserves for comforting export of 6 months what ever path your govt takes it will lose in one form or another. My prediction was always related to foreign reserves being depleted and go check where current RBI statement stands.

 

[Crixus]

How much are the foreign reserves now and by the way do you guys get that 12 billion bail out yet ????? so the prediction was wrong ??

you know the funny part is a citizen of an almost bankrupt country ( relying on loans only ) is commenting on a country with 400 billion plus reserves

 

[BHarwana]

How much are the foreign reserves now and by the way do you guys get that 12 billion bail out yet ????? so the prediction was wrong ??

you know the funny part is a citizen of an almost bankrupt country ( relying on loans only ) is commenting on a country with 400 billion plus reserves

You can keep mocking me as much as you like but every word I said is turning into reality. Your economy is suffering only to show modi as a good leader India is losing billions of dollars daily to support rupee.

 

[Crixus]

Dude the thing , you are worried about India more then PAkistan while you guys are looking for 12 billion bail out and you yes you are kind of laughing stock here .... not only dollars we have one of the largest gold reserves with RBI ..... if they count the gold of temples we are in top2 -3 countries and if they consider the house hold gold then we have almost double the gold which US have

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...ries-with-largest-gold-reserves/#32dfac1c5334

You can keep mocking me as much as you like but every word I said is turning into reality. Your economy is suffering only to show modi as a good leader India is losing billions of dollars daily to support rupee.

 

[AyanRay]

Just the 3rd time since Independence that a democaratically elected Govt was able to complete it's term and these guys are giving advice on how should one vote.

One was even dreaming of balkanization of India. Seems east Pakistan still hurts.

 

[BHarwana]

Dude the thing , you are worried about India more then PAkistan while you guys are looking for 12 billion bail out and you yes you are kind of laughing stock here .... not only dollars we have one of the largest gold reserves with RBI ..... if they count the gold of temples we are in top2 -3 countries and if they consider the house hold gold then we have almost double the gold which US have

View attachment 490601

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...ries-with-largest-gold-reserves/#32dfac1c5334

Dude your Forbes article is from July 5th and you have just lost $22 billion in foreign reserves please get updated on your economy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1026091707065032704

India is losing a billion dollars a week lol and you people mock me lol. This is just an expense to make rupee stay in strength. If RBI don't throws money from reserves there is no dollar in market to do business.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1025801060760215552

India tries to compete with China lol this is the true state of indian economy.

Here see dum dum the interest rates also just went up means Indian growth going to come down lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1026455321672384513