In 7 years, the China story’s over

[Sanchez]

Wishful thinking! It's the best word to describe China haters around in the forum. Unfortunately many of them are Indians and Viets.

 

[Viet]

Wishful thinking! It's the best word to describe China haters around in the forum. Unfortunately many of them are Indians and Viets.

Come on, don´t try to drag us into the hole. I really don´t care of what will happen to China in 7 years.

 

[shuttler]

Let another round of China bashing begin.

We started the year of 2013 on a high note:

UPDATE 2-Strong China Jan trade shows economic rebound intact | Reuters

Thu Feb 7, 2013 11:49pm EST
* Jan exports +25.0 pct y/y vs +17.0 pct forecast

* Jan imports +28.8 pct y/y vs +23.3 pct forecast

* Jan trade surplus $29.2 bln vs $22 bln forecast

* Prompts rise in stocks on economic recovery hopes

Car sales accelerated in January

The run-up to Spring Festival as well as China's economic rebound are expected to have boosted China's passenger vehicle sales in January by nearly 50 percent year-on-year, said the China Passenger Car Association.

The association said on its website that China's passenger vehicle sales to dealers in January would hit about 1.45 million units, more than 15 percent higher than in December.

The association will release detailed figures on Thursday.

Go China!

 

[shuttler]

I heard the same story with much stronger arguement for at least 2 decades,and similiar "research" comes out with the same "prediction"once every 2-3 month during the last 2 decades,it seems like some "scholars"are very persistent,I hipe they can see what they predicted happens in their life time,otherwise that'll be a very big letdown.

I wonder which topic is hotter:

"the collapse of China in x years" or "superpower india in y years"!

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

How many threads are opened on US collapse, China collapse and India collapse.

People love collapse theories I guess.....

 

[Star Wars]

AM wondering how many here actually read the contents of the OP....

 

[Viper0011.]

I don't think it will be ALL OVER, but surely will not have the growth trance as of now. And most definitely will not be a double digit growth as they are used to be. The market is too big to collaspe now, unless china stay as is for the next 10 or 15 years, a broken down of Economy will not happen

I don't think it CAN be all over. You have 1.4 billion consumers in this country. If the labor market shrinks, they'll do what the Indians are doing due to the cost rising within India. They are getting Western contract and sub-contracting them out to Philippines, Mexico,Sri Lanka, etc. That way, the Indian company keeps the profit margin and the client, but gets the job done through some much more cheaper country.
What the article also forgot is that within the 7 years, people are are already establishing themselves, will be more established. The middle class will be further up than where it is today. So...you'll have plenty of more revenue and business coming live, helping the economy that way vs, the cheaper labor.

 

[Echo_419]

BS article Chinese growth story is far from normal

 

[Okemos]

Here is some copy paste:




VK: That’s right. But as outrageous an example as the South China Mall is, there’s an even more outrageous example – namely that the Chinese built an entire city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia for 1.5 million residents and it is completely empty. These are classic examples of the sort of excesses going on in China.

Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town - Photo Essays - TIME

Ordos - a ghost town.

Ordos is an anomaly. Inner Mongolia's economic boom is from sale of its rich coal resources, comparable to some Gulf states. It has too much cash, but not developed economy, so what do people with cash do? Put into real estate. Unlike Yangtze River Delta, Inner Mongolia is thinly populated and does not have enough residents to buy those housing. Nobody from other provinces want to move to Inner Mongolia either. I am wondering what those developers were thinking.

Also Ordos is not entirely new city as the article suggested, wtf. Ordos has always been a city....

 

[kewell333]

China's January auto sales surge 46 percent

February 8, 2013, 4:38 pm

SHANGHAI -- Auto sales in China, the world's largest car market, hit a record 2.03 million vehicles last month, driven by robust demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, an industry group said Thursday.

Auto sales tend to pick up before the holiday, which starts Sunday, as people spend their New Year bonuses.

“There was evident growth of demand in the passenger vehicle market,” the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in a statement.

Vehicle sales surged 46.4 percent year-on-year in January to set a record for any month, the group said, but added the strong rise was also attributable to five fewer working days in January last year.

Sales of passenger vehicles alone jumped around 48.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.73 million units, it said.

China's annual auto sales rose only 4.3 percent year-on-year to 19.31 million units in 2012, hit by limits on numbers imposed by some cities to ease traffic congestion and cut pollution.

A dispute between Beijing and Tokyo also hurt sales of Japanese cars, but other foreign brands have fared better due to customers' perceptions of higher quality.

U.S. auto giant General Motors said earlier this week that its January sales in China surged 26 percent year on year to 310,765 vehicles, setting a company record for any month.

Its sales in China grew 11.3 percent in 2012 from 2011 to a record 2.84 million vehicles, despite the country's slower economic growth, the company has previously said.


China auto sales hit record in Jan.: industry group - The China Post

 

[Huan]

Better start making the Chinese roads wider with more lanes just like in Houston, Texas over here to accommodate millions of more vehicles in traffic.

 

[faithfulguy]

How many threads are opened on US collapse, China collapse and India collapse.

People love collapse theories I guess.....

I hear stories on China collapse, US collapse, but I haven't heard of any India collapse. Indian collapse stories won't get any traction.

I only read article and facebook pages on Indian Superpower. There is even a movie about Indian superpower 2030.

Better start making the Chinese roads wider with more lanes just like in Houston, Texas over here to accommodate millions of more vehicles in traffic.

China is making more roads at a faster pace than ever before. Its building roads like America in the 50s

 

[jhungary]

I don't think it CAN be all over. You have 1.4 billion consumers in this country. If the labor market shrinks, they'll do what the Indians are doing due to the cost rising within India. They are getting Western contract and sub-contracting them out to Philippines, Mexico,Sri Lanka, etc. That way, the Indian company keeps the profit margin and the client, but gets the job done through some much more cheaper country.
What the article also forgot is that within the 7 years, people are are already establishing themselves, will be more established. The middle class will be further up than where it is today. So...you'll have plenty of more revenue and business coming live, helping the economy that way vs, the cheaper labor.

Just as i said, i don't see a collaspe China in the next 7 years, but i also would not see a "Fast growing" China in 7 years. In 7 years China will be half satruated and either have to change their form or shift their dynamic from on place to another, developemental of new city and new trading hub is a needed.

Mind you, even with Chinese'market overtake US market, Chinese will not be a Superpower with 1 :1 spending power with the American anytime soon. As China have a population about 5 times (1.4 billions vs 330 milions) the US population, it's only realistic to expect even China have a bigger trade figure than US, China only have 1/5 power of everything (Purchasing power, crediting and Military expenditure) unless China turn into a North Korean Style Regime and totally ignore their citizens, China will need to take care of 5 time what american taking care of. Yes, there maybe people richer tha nthe American, but as the ratio concluded, there will be 5 times more people living in poverty in China than the United States. And Chinese need to deal with this issue before totally surpass the US with everything. And that i tell you, will not happen anytime soon.

 

[IND151]

Just as i said, i don't see a collaspe China in the next 7 years, but i also would not see a "Fast growing" China in 7 years. In 7 years China will be half satruated and either have to change their form or shift their dynamic from on place to another, developemental of new city and new trading hub is a needed.

Mind you, even with Chinese'market overtake US market, Chinese will not be a Superpower with 1 :1 spending power with the American anytime soon. As China have a population about 5 times (1.4 billions vs 330 milions) the US population, it's only realistic to expect even China have a bigger trade figure than US, China only have 1/5 power of everything (Purchasing power, crediting and Military expenditure) unless China turn into a North Korean Style Regime and totally ignore their citizens, China will need to take care of 5 time what american taking care of. Yes, there maybe people richer tha nthe American, but as the ratio concluded, there will be 5 times more people living in poverty in China than the United States. And Chinese need to deal with this issue before totally surpass the US with everything. And that i tell you, will not happen anytime soon.

The GDP growth rate of Chinese Economy will slow down significacantly.

China has 8 trillion dollar economy now. At this stage an economy slows down.

So it will not witness the very high growth rate it witnessed in 90s or early 2000s.

 

[Viper0011.]

The GDP growth rate of Chinese Economy will slow down significacantly.

China has 8 trillion dollar economy now. At this stage an economy slows down.

So it will not witness the very high growth rate it witnessed in 90s or early 2000s.

I can tell you don't have a background in the economy. The market will go through a correction. Jobs will be lost, growth will slow down, unnecessary spending will be cut. Then, the next economic cycle will start. New infrastructure, education and technology programs will spur up. Cheaper interest rates will produce more businesses and more products and services, three to five years of the slow down, the economy will grow 1.5 times the pace of what it was doing before!!! Remember, the reason US and others picked India to outsource our American jobs wasn't because we really loved you. We wanted to penetrate the 1 billion people, period.
Similarly, you have 1.5 billion people in China. So, with the slow down or no slow down, these people will need food, clothes, shoes cars, houses, etc. So in China's case, they'll grow till 2040 till they top out. Meaning majority of the people have proper residence, infrastructures are complete throughout China, hospitals, clothing, cars, etc, etc are ALL there. Kind of like how the US has saturated in some cases now. So your assessment is inaccurate

Just as i said, i don't see a collaspe China in the next 7 years, but i also would not see a "Fast growing" China in 7 years. In 7 years China will be half satruated and either have to change their form or shift their dynamic from on place to another, developemental of new city and new trading hub is a needed.

Read my response below to another post. It answers your question as well. Simply put, if the US has kept the world's economy with its 330 million people....these Chinese have 1.5 billion and growing to feed, provide clothes, roads, homes, shows, cell phones, the internet, trains, etc, etc. So...the economy will take cycles like it does everywhere else. BUT, it won't slow down for more than a few year but then it'll pick back up for the next cycle 1.5 times of the pace. Until all housing, roads, food stores, hospitals, jobs, cars, etc, etc are provided for 90% of the 1.5 billion people. Then it'll saturate and by that time....it'll be 2040-2050. A few of the economy related forecasts even put the Chinese economy around 18-21 Trillion large by 2040. So that's only do-able if constant growth is there