Westerners talk about Putin's bluff of nuclear war, they are right. Putin is bluffing.
At the same time, if Putin strikes Poland or any other NATO country (except US) article 5 will be invoked and NATO will collectively fight Russia is also a bluff.
Russia should make it clear through a declaration in press that the countries where weapons come from are declaring war on Russia and Russia will strikes targets in those countries and then follow through on those threats. The stakes need to be raised for those EU countries to stop their nonsense. Russia also should have stopped gas and oil supply to every EU country that froze their assets, they would have fallen in line quickly.
Some parts I agree with some parts make no sense.
Putin always had the most to lose. Putin until now has been none stop bluffing, nuclear posturing, and losing credibility every single day. Russia has been exposed for what it is.. a paper tiger that is being destroyed by a small properly trained motivated military.
Every single analyst had Russia taking Kiev within 3 days. All that went to hell simply due to national unity, strong leadership, and fighting moral. Defending ones homeland will bring the inner superhero in you out.
Its pathetic a muslim would support a nation like Russia which has the hands of tens of millions of muslims on its hands. From central asia, to eastern europe, caucases, middle east, afghanistan. Russia deserves every pounding its getting right now for what it did to the cities of syria, chechnya, and afghanistan. Russian terror from even 200 years ago is felt today in cities throughout central asia.
Russia is a pathetic country that cannot take on Ukraine let alone Poland. Forget NATO. US/NATO can give Russia a pounding that will make afghanistan/iraq wars look like a cake. Hundreds if not thousands of videos are online showing how untrained and pathetic russian units are, including the so called special "chechnyan" units. The Russian airforce with x20 the numbers of ukraines air force has yet to achieve even a semblance of air superiority.
Russia throughout history has only been saved due to 1 reason... ITS SHEER SIZE, but now since the last few decades Russia has been seeing a population decline unknown in human history. The sheer manpower Russia had in past comapared to its enemies is simply no longer there today. Germany+Poland alone match Russia in population size and both these nations are still seeing population increases+immigration. Russia lost a key competitive advantage against its neighbors long ago.
Russia's bluff will simply be called because if Putin even dares his generals to pull the nuke trigger, his own generals will take Putin out and overthrow the government to prevent total nuclear war. You can game theory it out hundreds of times under current conditionals today and the end result is most likely still VERY UGLY FOR RUSSIA AND PUTIN.
Over the next few weeks/months if Russian failure continues at it is I see a 80% probability of Russia using a tactical nuke over a open/unpopulated area. Either of the following-
- Nuclear Blast over the black sea
- Nuclear Blast in the Cherobyll exclusion zone (which already has radiation)
Both of these options would throw the ball in NATOs court. My assessment is NATO has a 75% probability of a strong military/nuclear response. What that exact response will be... IDK we will have to see
or anyone else than themselves.
