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If China and the US split the tech world, that could come at a cost to consumers

beijingwalker

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If China and the US split the tech world, that could come at a cost to consumers
PUBLISHED 6 HOURS AGO

Saheli Roy Choudhury

  • If the ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington force companies to develop two different sets of technologies, then it would be bad news for everyone, according to Mahendra Negi from Trend Micro.
  • It would make those technologies more expensive and potentially affect their compatibility across different geographies, he said.
  • Technology competition has become a major factor in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry and trade dispute, with implications for global IT supply chains based in Asia and the United States, according to analysts.
If the ongoing tensions between Beijing and Washington force companies to develop two different sets of technologies — one for China and its aligned countries, and the other for the rest of the world — then it would be bad news for everyone, according to a senior executive at a multinational tech firm.

That is, the development of technology would become more expensive, Mahendra Negi, chief financial officer at Trend Micro, told CNBC’s “Street Signs ” on Tuesday. His company develops cybersecurity software that can protect corporate data from hackers.


“Secondly, the local regulations might drive development in different parts, so you will have this problem of compatibility,” he said. For example, users may end up with multiple smartphones — one that works in China, and another that works outside the country.

Technology competition has become a major factor in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry and trade dispute, with implications for global IT supply chains based in Asia and the United States, according to analysts. Many have warned that the current disagreement could hasten a “splinternet” — a future where the global digital network is fragmented, or at least bifurcated.

Recently, the U.S. put Chinese tech heavyweight Huawei, a leader in the next generation of high-speed mobile internet, on a black list that makes it harder for the company to do business with American firms.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC last week that Huawei works with the Chinese government — despite denials from the company — and Washington had been trying to convince allies to stop working with the telecommunications giant on national security grounds. For its part, Beijing denounced Pompeo’s remarks. Huawei has repeatedly denied it is influenced by the Chinese government or intelligence services.

“We hope that a lot of this is posturing around some trade negotiations and it will not really go down in that direction where there are barriers, which make flow of data or flow of products very difficult,” Negi said.


Even though Trend Micro does not ship physical products — so it is not immediately affected by tariffs — Negi pointed out that the company would eventually feel the effects of the tariff war between the world’s two largest economies.

“In the end, our customers, if they’re affected, then sooner or later, we’ll be affected too,” he said, adding that if the whole economy were to slow down, then investments would decline, which, in turn, would also have an impact on the company.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/spl...-and-elsewhere-may-be-costly-trend-micro.html
 
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I guess, for neutral countries, they will install two systems together.

Just like the era of CDMA and GSM.
 
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Yes, it was a bad idea for Android to pop up when the world should be damn happy with IOS. Just think of all the development costs and hardware forking.

Yes, it was a bad idea for AMD to start making chips because of all the expense in motherboard hardware to support it. We should have been happy with Intel.

You can make an argument in pro or con for any way you want with issues like these.
 
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China’s tech ‘Long March’ could be road to nowhere
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China’s president has called for technological self-reliance in the escalating rivalry with America, but experts believe Beijing’s late start on tech and relatively backward capabilities could make that a mission impossible.

China has no doubt made an amazing transformation, from a former basket case wracked by mass famine and political upheaval to a highly connected society marked by growing use of renewable energy, a space programme, and bullet trains criss-crossing the country.

But a closer look reveals that while China is adept at assembling foreign technologies into commercially successful products at home, its ability to innovate remains deeply hampered, tech experts said.

China is adept at assembling foreign technologies into commercially successful products at home, its ability to innovate remains deeply hampered

Take semiconductors, the building blocks of the global digital architecture.

China’s government has poured money into an effort to develop its own semiconductors and chip designs but has not been able to close the gap with US, Japanese and South Korean rivals.

“One way to look at (China’s situation) is that someone may be able to make beautiful designs out of Legos, but they don’t know how to make the Legos themselves,” said Gabriel Chou, Asia chair for World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, a grouping of semiconductor-product companies.

“(China) is aggressively attacking the end-market, such as mobile phones or other consumer products. But semiconductors require many very fundamental science skills” that China struggles with, Chou added.

The risks are now clear following last week’s move by Washington to ban Chinese telecom and smartphone giant Huawei’s access to critical American chips and other technology.

The ban has thrown the company’s future into doubt, causing a number of Huawei partners around the world to bail on the company and emphatically illustrating US tech clout.

Long March: President Xi Jinping this week telegraphed his alarm, calling for self-reliance in “key core technologies” while saying China faced a “Long March” against foreign challengers — a reference to a now-legendary 1934-35 strategic retreat by Communist revolutionaries.

But a state-directed approach is a bad idea, said Paul Triolo, head of geotechnology at the Eurasia Group.

Triolo said the world’s top tech companies got where they are because open competition with rivals forced them to develop better products and attract the best human capital.

And being plugged into the world tech ecosystem encouraged them to constantly tailor products to evolving market needs to stay ahead of the pack — or die.

“It’s incredibly hard to wean yourself off foreign suppliers in such a highly market-driven sector where you must be on the cutting edge, and that edge is constantly changing and moving outward,” Triolo said.

The very idea of national self-reliance flies in the face of reality, he adds.

Different countries have excelled in different areas and focused on their core competencies to survive, leading to a complex and interconnected global supply chain.

“The US has a lot of dominance, but there are other big players too. China simply can’t be an island and recreate a whole globalised technology ecosystem at home,” Triolo said.

“To reduce dependence they will have to take a different paradigm from the rest of world and that’s tough. It’s not something money is going to solve over the short-term.”

Software glitch: Software is another glaring weak spot. As in the rest of the world, there is no viable alternative in China to Microsoft and Apple on personal computing systems — or to Google’s Android or Apple’s iOS on mobile phones.

US companies also dominate the Chinese landscape for enterprise software.

The United States suspects Huawei has ties to China’s military and fears the company’s installation of telecom networks worldwide could put sensitive data at risk. Huawei denies the charges.

But Chinese software shortcomings leave Huawei vulnerable even on these global networks — the company relies heavily on US software to power them, Triolo said.

“A database has to be really robust and no company in China can do that database software,” he said.

China could nonetheless be a formidable player in next-generation technologies like artificial intelligence, driverless cars and automated manufacturing.

Xi’s government has singled out such futuristic technologies for state development — a programme partly responsible for triggering US pushback on tech.

“We believe China is in a commanding position to become a far more influential player in disruptive technologies globally,” said Kenny Liew, a tech analyst with Fitch Solutions.

He adds that the US-China tech rivalry “will contribute positively to the global technological landscape.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 27th, 2019
 
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I have a Nokia phone circa 2010 with Symbian OS and built like a brick ready with me if sh!t does hit the fan!!
 
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When we don't have one kind of political system of governments for cross countries and cross continents, there is also no need to have one type of "Tech software" around the world. This is just hypocrisy and desire of some countries to dominate other countries through so-called "cross platform cross continent Tech".

These hypocrites in US are perfectly fine with Apple having its dedicated hardware and software but if some Chinese company will do it then it will suddenly bring "cross platform" issues at forefront.
 
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China is in no position to compete with US. What revolutionary tech has been produced by china that has been resulted in global acceptance..... precisely none.

China if it is able to come up with ground breaking product will be able to disrupt the status quo. It is possible but not probable.

Globally no one is going to follow china against US tech or for that matter bother to have parallel system. The cost would be simply prohibitive.
 
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China is in no position to compete with US. What revolutionary tech has been produced by china that has been resulted in global acceptance..... precisely none.

China if it is able to come up with ground breaking product will be able to disrupt the status quo. It is possible but not probable.

Globally no one is going to follow china against US tech or for that matter bother to have parallel system. The cost would be simply prohibitive.
You sound have no clue.

Imagine this: US tech (android, ios, windows, google, qualcomm, general electric, etc) will loose china's 1.4 billion ++ market while China tech will enjoy the 1.4 billion market without competition from US and ally.

In the meantime China tech can compete in neutral market like india rusia indonesia brazil and many others.

What is that supposed to mean? US tech will loose some market share to new arising tech titan (huawei, hongmeng, baidu, tencent, smic, etc).
 
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You sound have no clue.

Imagine this: US tech (android, ios, windows, google, qualcomm, general electric, etc) will loose china's 1.4 billion ++ market while China tech will enjoy the 1.4 billion market without competition from US and ally.

In the meantime China tech can compete in neutral market like india rusia indonesia brazil and many others.

What is that supposed to mean? US tech will loose some market share to new arising tech titan (huawei, hongmeng, baidu, tencent, smic, etc).

No it does not quite work like that. Huawei is relient on on western tech for every element of a mobile phone....basically because they simply copied things and have taken advantage of economies of scale.... for example....

In terms of hardware....ARM chip architecture huawei will no longer be able to use....thus no chip...

They are no longer able to have access to anything other than open source andriod....without google market place no one going to buy huawei anywhere in the world including in china itself...

Unless china bans western phones and forces the chinese to buy huawei phones just like it protects huawei in other market segments where the state guarantees huawei monopoly as far as i can see Huawei mobile business is on its last breath.

Additionally as far as 5G is concerned i think it is right to not allow huawei access not because it is chinese but because it is a state owned monopolistic enterprise that is directed by a state that is autocratic. There are no checks and balances and huawei represents a risk to any country that allows them in.
 
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No it does not quite work like that. Huawei is relient on on western tech for every element of a mobile phone....basically because they simply copied things and have taken advantage of economies of scale.... for example....

In terms of hardware....ARM chip architecture huawei will no longer be able to use....thus no chip...

They are no longer able to have access to anything other than open source andriod....without google market place no one going to buy huawei anywhere in the world including in china itself...

Unless china bans western phones and forces the chinese to buy huawei phones just like it protects huawei in other market segments where the state guarantees huawei monopoly as far as i can see Huawei mobile business is on its last breath.

Additionally as far as 5G is concerned i think it is right to not allow huawei access not because it is chinese but because it is a state owned monopolistic enterprise that is directed by a state that is autocratic. There are no checks and balances and huawei represents a risk to any country that allows them in.
Thats what China government will do: protect Huawei, either by raising tax or ban the huawei competitor in china market as retaliation. Do you think China wont protect her champion Huawei and will let them die or weak because of US sanction? Retaliation and protection is what you will see soon.

Huawei has ARM license for long term period, this will let China build her own version. Huawei doesnt need qualcomm, and some other US tech including Android for China market.

The protection will give them strong domestic market that will enable them strong enough to compete in international market someday.
 
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Thats what China government will do: protect Huawei, either by raising tax or ban the huawei competitor in china market as retaliation. Do you think China wont protect her champion Huawei and will let them die or weak because of US sanction? Retaliation and protection is what you will see soon.

Huawei has ARM license for long term period, this will let China build her own version. Huawei doesnt need qualcomm, and some other US tech including Android for China market.

The protection will give them strong domestic market that will enable them strong enough to compete in international market someday.

ARM license has been suspended. Huawei can not produce chips with arm design anymore. Unless they have developed tech already ..... yes huawei is gonne. So far they have only copied others.... this may be what huawei needs to stand on their own. But it will be a hard struggle.
 
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ARM license has been suspended. Huawei can not produce chips with arm design anymore. Unless they have developed tech already ..... yes huawei is gonne. So far they have only copied others.... this may be what huawei needs to stand on their own. But it will be a hard struggle.
Your argument is self contradictive.

If as you said Huawei only copied other, then why Huawei need license from ARM?

Huawei can just ignore ARM's license; they dont need such a license for China market right? Just clone it until they can build their own version. [emoji6] [emoji16]
 
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Your argument is self contradictive.

If as you said Huawei only copied other, then why Huawei need license from ARM?

Huawei can just ignore ARM's license; they dont need such a license for China market right? Just clone it until they can build their own version. [emoji6] [emoji16]

There are many chip makers but they buy license for ARM design. You can not produce it without it, it would break patent laws and WTO regulation.

If you steal it and produce chips you will be immediately black listed. Huawei wont be able to sell its product anywhere in the world. There will be massive ramafication for china as a country.

Cloning chip design ....maybe but you wont have access to any further design modifications. ARM does not have a monopoly for no reason.

Now is huawei r&d off the level to go it alone. Time will tell.
 
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There are many chip makers but they buy license for ARM design. You can not produce it without it, it would break patent laws and WTO regulation.

If you steal it and produce chips you will be immediately black listed. Huawei wont be able to sell its product anywhere in the world. There will be massive ramafication for china as a country.

Cloning chip design ....maybe but you wont have access to any further design modifications. ARM does not have a monopoly for no reason.

Now is huawei r&d off the level to go it alone. Time will tell.
Till now nobody sue Huawei for copying many things. Even Huawei sue Samsung for patent infringement and license some patent to Apple.

If Huawei want to avoid ARM sue for patent infringement they can sell their products only in China market alone until they build their own comparable to ARM. What make you think China cant build ARM alike if their domestic market support it?

The reason for current unbreakable ARM domination in the world is simply because market monopoly by ARM. The ARM monopoly was established due to the existing ecosystem that are built upon ARM and nobody can challenge it due to lack of market support just like nobody can challenge Airbus & Boeing domination in 150 seat passanger planes or nobody can challenge Android domination due to lack of market support.

If China break ARM monopoly in China market, then ARM will loose hold on China and competitor soon will arise from China until they are strong enough to be competitive in international market, and thats the point of this article: tech world that is now running on the single version (ARM) later on will split into dual version (ARM vs Chinese version), and that will be applied to other platform and tech too: hongmeng vs android, kirin vs snapdragon, chinese windows vs ms windows, comac vs boeing, etc. What make you think it can't happen? :)

This is about market vs market, previously tech domination coming from US because US is the largest market, and now US is no longer the largest market.
 
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Till now nobody sue Huawei for copying many things. Even Huawei sue Samsung for patent infringement and license some patent to Apple.

If Huawei want to avoid ARM sue for patent infringement they can sell their products only in China market alone until they build their own comparable to ARM. What make you think China cant build ARM alike if their domestic market support it?

The reason for current unbreakable ARM domination in the world is simply because market monopoly by ARM. The ARM monopoly was established due to the existing ecosystem that are built upon ARM and nobody can challenge it due to lack of market support just like nobody can challenge Airbus & Boeing domination in 150 seat passanger planes or nobody can challenge Android domination due to lack of market support.

If China break ARM monopoly in China market, then ARM will loose hold on China and competitor soon will arise from China until they are strong enough to be competitive in international market, and thats the point of this article: tech world that is now running on the single version (ARM) later on will split into dual version (ARM vs Chinese version), and that will be applied to other platform and tech too: hongmeng vs android, kirin vs snapdragon, chinese windows vs ms windows, comac vs boeing, etc. What make you think it can't happen? :)

This is about market vs market, previously tech domination coming from US because US is the largest market, and now US is no longer the largest market.

As I said time will tell. Nothing is impossible but in the current scenario Huawei is in a bind. if it is fully frozen out by the west I do not really see it being in any position to respond immediately and adequately out of the blue and create an alternative set of products that will gain traction in the global market.
 
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