I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[M.SAAD]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

 

[[Bregs]]

Deleted on OP request

 

[M.SAAD]

Plus: Indians & Pakistanis , try not to troll in this thread ..


Lets have a sensible debate.

 

[[Bregs]]

Plus: Indians , stay away from this thread and don't troll here, Ty..

ok deleted my comment

 

[graphican]

lol if a plebiscite is allowed may be both India and pakstan might loose there part of Kashmir

That will be equally good that Kashmirs get the land they own.

 

[M.SAAD]

ok deleted my comment

Edited by mentioning both Indians and Pakistanis .

 

[[Bregs]]

That will be equally good that Kashmirs get the land they own.

But because of the mutual distrust and suspicion between India and Pakistan wont allow plebiscite

 

[Areesh]

You think a lot. And then create a thread over it. That's totally stupid.

 

[lastofthepatriots]

I'm fine with Kashmiris gaining independence. We only care about their oppression from the Brahmin state.

 

[M.SAAD]

You think a lot. And then create a thread over it. That's totally stupid.

You're welcome not to comment then.


Im making my assumptions after doing bit of research, viewing some polls, talking to some Kashmiris and asking their opinions .

IMO, Pak odds are not favorable, not as much as we think/assume .

 

[Srinivas]

I agree with your post.

Most of the Kashmiris are fighting for their rights and some oppression happened since early 1990's. They are not pro Pakistan.

The separatist leaders who were well funded by Pakistan make it look Kashmir struggle is pro Pakistan.

The fight that is happening for centuries between Islam and the Nativity got reduced to a small region called Kashmir after 1947. As a result Kashmiris suffered.

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India.


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

 

[war&peace]

Totally an idiotic article.....no references of any sort...where did you get those figures? or those got slipped out when you were sleeping? Anybody can write and post on pdf

 

[M.SAAD]

Sensible post bhai.
At least you did


At least you now know the reality mere bhai.
I have few kashmiri friends in college whom i asked do they want or like Pakistan.
They straight away said NO.
They were saying that *** citizens are given nothing and all ...

Well one thing for sure, that people in Azad Kashmir live more peacefully and are more independent than people in IOK, no matter how Indian Media twists it .

 

[Srinivas]

I'm fine with Kashmiris gaining independence. We only care about their oppression from the Brahmin state.

After that you can declare Jihad on kashmir and teach Ummah and true religion to Kashmiris just like you did with Afghanistan!

 

[war&peace]

You think a lot. And then create a thread over it. That's totally stupid.

Totally agreed...No references...totally crap...If it is his thinking...he is allowed to be as deluded as he wants....but to publish it as some sort of study and fact is downright criminal.