Can I please ask you to try to look at facts, and not what your heart wants the reality to be like?
I will for now state what are the facts. Please ask me for source and citations if you want them.
- Hongmeng OS is NOT for smartphones. It was built for IoT devices and was not customized for smartphones. It is being developed for smartphones yes, but it is not ready yet.
What Huawei is looking right now is at using the Android Open Source Project Code and forking it. It needs developer support and an ecosystem even for that because a lot of services given via Google Mobile Services won't be available.
All of this has been said by Ren Zhengfei himself in two interviews in BBC and Economist.
- ASML is a Dutch Company that sources a lot of components from Europe and US. In general, ASML will almost certainly follow US sanctions if the US sanctioned something like a SMIC or Tsinghua Unigroup. And not to forget, the dutch are American allies.
- Da Vinci architecture is an architecture for NPUs or AI-related-ASICs.
It is not an architecture for CPUs, and hence no comparison to ARM which makes general CPU architectures and ISAs.
- China is NOT the biggest domestic chip market.
China consumes around 30-40% of the chips, BUT more than half of that are re-exported around the world as final products. For example, ALL of the chips that Apple buys for its iPhones assembled inside China are counted as Chinese imports, while most of the Apple phones are finally exported through out the world.
If end consumer market is concerned, then China probably consumes domestically only 12-20% of the world's chips.
- So, if you escalate trade war further, companies like Apple, HP, Dell, Google who do their assembly in China will shift out of China and go elsewhere. It WILL be slightly more expensive and inefficient elsewhere, but NOT impossible to shift. Already, Samsung has shifted all mobile assembly to Vietnam.
- China is a big market for TSMC and Samsung, but US sanctions and US support will be an existential issue for them. If they had to choose between US and China, they will choose the US. For example look at ARM. ARM, despite having such a large market in China, had to stop further contacts with Huawei.
- China's unreliable entities list is just a boast. When is the list going to actually add a major player?
1,Huawei said if necessary the upcoming Mate30 phone(Which is supposed to be sold in Europe today) can use Hongmeng OS. How it is not ready?
2, Why didn't ASML and TSMC follow US ban then? Because the world is much more complicated than you think. Most high tech products contain parts or technologies from many countries. Do you think US is the only one who can cut the production chain? US is just the one who has loudest voice. Rare earth materials are also indispensable in chip industy.
3. I'm not an expert in semiconductor. But I know ARM is replaceable in every field. ARM is very similar to google Android. It is good because many users support it. ARM will face same fate as google Android.
4, China is the biggest domestic chip market. Chips are used in many industries. Not just phones. China is the biggest industrial products market and world factory. China's export to US only shares 15% of its total export. The world has several billion phone users. US only has 0.3 billion population.
Why do you think the rest world will follow US if US stops importing China-made products? If Apple moves out of China, the only result is Apple will lose more customers. Those companies who use China-made parts will take advantage of it.
5, It is the same issue as your 4th question. Please notice China is not just assembly factory. It supplies many crucial parts and materials to electronic products. It will not be SLIGHTLY more expensive if completely cutting business with China. The cost will soar.Their products will not be competitive.
6, Check my No2,No4,No5 replies.
7, China has not used Unreliable Entities and rare earth because the time hasn't come yet. Don't fire your bullets to soon. If there is a list of boast, China will be on the bottom of it.