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How will India respond to civil war in Pakistan?

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illusion8

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In 2013, prospects of another civil war in Pakistan — this time one that pits radical Islamists against the secular but authoritarian military — have led once again to questions about what India would do. What would trigger Indian intervention, and who would India support?


In the context of a civil war between Islamists and the army in Pakistan, it is hard to imagine Pakistani refugees streaming into India and triggering intervention as the Bengalis did in 1971. Muslim Pakistanis do not see India as a refuge, and Taliban fighters are likely to seek refuge in Afghanistan, especially if the United States leaves the region.


A more selective spillover, such as the increased threat of terrorism, is possible. But a civil war inside Pakistan is more likely to train radical attention on Pakistan itself than on India.


In fact, the real problem for India would be in Afghanistan. India has already staked a claim in the Afghan endgame, so if Islamists seek an alliance with an Afghan government favoured by India, New Delhi’s best option might be to side covertly with the Islamists against the Pakistani army. But this is unlikely, because for India to actually side with Islamists, US policy in Pakistan and Afghanistan would have to change dramatically.


Conversely, for India to back the Pakistani army over the Islamists, Indian leaders would need to see a full and verifiable settlement of all bilateral disputes with India, including Kashmir, and/or the imminent fall of Pakistani nuclear weapons into the hands of Islamists.


In the first case, a Kashmir resolution is not only unrealistic, but also likely to weaken the legitimacy of the Pakistani army itself, jeopardising the army’s prospects in the civil war. In the second case, Indian leaders would need to have independent (non-US/UK) intelligence, or alternatively see US action (such as a military raid on Pakistani nuclear facilities) that convinces them that nuclear weapons are about to pass into terrorist hands. Neither of those triggers is likely to exist in the near future.


As it is, India and Pakistan have gone down to the nuclear edge four times — in 1986, 1990, 1999 and 2001–02. In each case, India responded in a manner that did not escalate the conflict. Any incursion into Pakistan was extremely limited. An Indian intervention in a civil war in Pakistan would be subject to the same limitations — at least so long as the Pakistani army maintains its integrity.


Given the new US–India ties, the most important factor in determining the possibility and nature of Indian intervention in a possible Pakistani civil war is Washington. If the United States is able to get Kabul and Islamabad to work together against the Taliban, as it is trying to do now, then India is likely to continue its current policy or try to preserve some influence in Afghanistan, especially working with elements of the Northern Alliance.


India and Afghanistan already have a strategic partnership agreement in place that creates the framework for their bilateral relationship to grow, but the degree of actual cooperation will depend on how Pakistan and the Taliban react. If Indian interests in Afghanistan come under attack, New Delhi might have to pull back. The Indian government has been quite clear about not sending troops to Afghanistan.


If the United States shifts its policy to where it has to choose Kabul over Islamabad, in effect reviving the demand for an independent Pashtunistan, India is likely to be much more supportive of US and Afghan goals. The policy shift, however, carries the risk of a full-fledged proxy war with Pakistan in Afghanistan, but should not involve the prospect of a direct Indian intervention in Pakistan itself.


India is not likely to initiate an intervention that causes the Pakistani state to fail. Bill Keller of the New York Times has described Pakistani president Asif Ail Zardari as overseeing ‘a ruinous kleptocracy that is spiraling deeper into economic crisis’. But in contrast to predictions of an unravelling nation, British journalist-scholar Anatol Lieven argues that the Pakistani state is likely to continue muddling through its many problems, unable to resolve them but equally predisposed against civil war and consequent state collapse. Lieven finds that the strong bonds of family, clan, tribe and the nature of South Asian Islam prevent modernist movements — propounded by the government or by the radicals — from taking control of the entire country.


Lieven’s analysis is more persuasive than the widespread view that Pakistan is about to fail as a state. The formal institutions of the Pakistani state are surprisingly robust given the structural conditions in which they operate. Indian political leaders recognise Pakistan’s resilience. Given the bad choices in Pakistan, they would rather not have anything to do with it. If there is going to be a civil war, why not wait for the two sides to exhaust themselves before thinking about intervening? The 1971 war demonstrated India’s willingness to exploit conditions inside Pakistan, but to break from tradition requires strong, countervailing logic, and those elements do not yet exist. Given the current conditions and those in the foreseeable future, India is likely to sit out a Pakistani civil war while covertly coordinating policy with the United States.


Sunil Dasgupta is Director of the University of Maryland Baltimore County Political Science Program at the Universities at Shady Grove and non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

How will India respond to civil war in Pakistan? | East Asia Forum





No wonder PA has been firing up it's battle field nukes.
I hope Indians are not thinking of getting involved in Pakistan again and what about China - the author seems to have completely forgotten about that aspect. Any hike in secession movements like Pushtunistan or Balochistan will only weaken the PA which is quite detrimental to India.
 
i didnt even bother wasting my precious time in reading the article


but i must say --in terms of scale and scope, i'd have to say "civil war" in india is a much worse issue so therefore i cant see why (or rather how) india should be focused on Pakistan rather than her own backyard and patio
 
let me put my 2 cents let say china have no interest in pakistan their is civil war and pakistan millitary is loosing all pakistan have to do is nuke india with half of its arsenal and nuke isreal with the other half and keep fighting the civil war and then all the support from india and us will stop to the islamist that want civil war and this way they can say look all of our nuclear arsenal is gone you can see its effect in hindustan and yehudistan now you dont have to worry about it getting into terrorists hands or the so called rouge arab/ korean nations Problem solved
 
i didnt even bother wasting my precious time in reading the article


but i must say --in terms of scale and scope, i'd have to say "civil war" in india is a much worse issue so therefore i cant see why (or rather how) india should be focused on Pakistan rather than her own backyard and patio

Civil war in India? how is that? the naxal movement is dying and in on its death bed - there are the final gasps before it gets killed, and that cannot be called a civil war.
While Pakistan is definitely in the grips of some sort of a civil war this year.
 
Civil war in India? how is that? the naxal movement is dying and in on its death bed - there are the final gasps before it gets killed, and that cannot be called a civil war.
While Pakistan is definitely in the grips of some sort of a civil war this year.
like i said india should support the civil war in pakistan the so called pashtunistan, balocshitan sindh nationalist and taliban extremism in punjab and all pakistan should with their 200 warhead is nuke india with 150 so it will be the worlds biggest radio active land instead of mocracy and the other 50 use it on israel and say their is no need to worry about nukes going to terrorists now and america will be busy saving yehudistan and rest of the hindu army will be busy saving hindustan, they should definitely support the civil war and should be actively engaged in it this way hindu can accomplish the division of pakistan and they wont have a nuclear threat from pakistan ever agian because pak people used it all its a win win situation for india and usa and israel
 
Then yindoos says that we want stable Pakistan.
 
Civil war in India? how is that? the naxal movement is dying and in on its death bed - there are the final gasps before it gets killed, and that cannot be called a civil war.
While Pakistan is definitely in the grips of some sort of a civil war this year.

naxals, assam, manipur, orissa not to mention rural caste-based tit for tat violence

i think india has more than enough on its plate!! follow the "india insurgency problem" thread and get an idea for yourself

just because BBC (or even some of your own media, or PDF) doesnt report it doesnt mean it dont happen :lol:
 
naxals, assam, manipur, orissa not to mention rural caste-based tit for tat violence

i think india has more than enough on its plate!! follow the "india insurgency problem" thread and get an idea for yourself

just because BBC (or even some of your own media, or PDF) doesnt report it doesnt mean it dont happen :lol:

None of those are close enough to bring in a full scale civil war. Sure, if the people in India supported the Naxal movement like the Maoist support in China back in the days, there would be problems. But that's not even close to being the case.
 
naxals, assam, manipur, orissa not to mention rural caste-based tit for tat violence

i think india has more than enough on its plate!! follow the "india insurgency problem" thread and get an idea for yourself

just because BBC (or even some of your own media, or PDF) doesnt report it doesnt mean it dont happen :lol:


nah jigar jani they should support civil war and get 150 nukes on them and the rest on yehudistan this way they have accomplished 2 things disarmed pakistan from nukes and unstable pakistan also this is give them a chance to become nuclear holocaust survivor and they can jump on the yehudi band wagon of holocaust survivor pakistan will be divided into small countries and will still remain muslim and hindustan and yehudistan will be nuclear waste land they could have a war crime tribunal in un and the pakistan millitary will gladly accept it after all they are paid to lay their lives on the line and if india or any one else use the nuclear on pakistan they will also have to go to un for war crimes what should they rather do save the people suffering in india from nuclear effects or use nuclear weapons on divided pakistan and become the **** bags that they are for using it on muslims :lol hahahahahahahahhaah indian strategist are the best in the world
 
Author: Sunil Dasgupta, i stopped reading
 
nah jigar jani they should support civil war and get 150 nukes on them and the rest on yehudistan this way they have accomplished 2 things disarmed pakistan from nukes and unstable pakistan also this is give them a chance to become nuclear holocaust survivor and they can jump on the yehudi band wagon of holocaust survivor pakistan will be divided into small countries and will still remain muslim and hindustan and yehudistan will be nuclear waste land they could have a war crime tribunal in un and the pakistan millitary will gladly accept it after all they are paid to lay their lives on the line and if india or any one else use the nuclear on pakistan they will also have to go to un for war crimes what should they rather do save the people suffering in india from nuclear effects or use nuclear weapons on divided pakistan and become the **** bags that they are for using it on muslims :lol hahahahahahahahhaah indian strategist are the best in the world

Did the mexican crack come with a severe warning of damaging brain cells?
 
Did the mexican crack come with a severe warning of damaging brain cells?

why would you say that what is the purpose of having nukes when you cannot use it. clearly they want pakistan to become next syria and think about it when the war on terror started did it every finished in iraq their are bomb going on every day just like pakistan if pakistan becomes syria they should take advantage of the fact that they are nuclear not on paper but in actual reality Just use them all up against every body, i have served in the army mos 15w uav operator i have flown shadow rq-7 and i know in war you use every thing you have to cause maximum damage in all aspect no matter what look at the death toll in afghanistan and iraq compared to us causalities look at the death toll in Vietnam compared to us You can buy the media and say that we lost but reality is the side that suffers more causality and equipment damage always looses no matter what the international non serving people say about what happened look at american civil war the south lost because of the causalities not because the north took over their land no south fought with north in northern lands
 
India should stay far away and give Pakistan some breathing space to sort it out - which I think though is becoming increasingly difficult for them.

There sure is much more than a civil war in Pakistan, its a multi pronged WWE style free for all thats going on there.
 
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