FOOLS_NIGHTMARE
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In the World of Social Media, the consensus is that the popularity of a school of thought is dependent on the success of Twitter trends, Facebook and Instagram likes and the relentless barrage of propaganda posts. Although this can be true to some extent in the Western countries, but for countries like Pakistan having Popularity on the SM has little effect. The DYNAMICS and the SCIENCE of electioneering is a completely different ball game. In Pakistan where democracy still hasn't taken proper roots, the following FACTORS are involved in winning an election.
PARTY VOTE FACTOR
Well, this is the most obvious factor, but many will be shocked to know that the party vote only accounts for on average 20% in every constituency. This increases if you are in an Urban area and decreases if it is a rural and remote area. The party vote may also not be a guaranteed vote, some may stay home if they differ with the party policy, but will not vote for the opponents.
PATWARI/QANOONGOH FACTOR
This is one of the most important factors as this Govt functionary has deep roots in his area. Politicians come and go but this Govt servant is always constant in his area. The local police touts and local spy agencies reps all get their area intel from him. The local landlords who occupy illegal lands need this functionary on their side for fiddling with the land records. When it comes to elections the Establishment has historically used them to tilt the balance for their favourite party. Some say this factor accounts for 15-20% of the electorate.
CANDIDATES GOODWILL FACTOR
The more experienced the candidate the more roots he has in his area. Some have been electioneering for generations and hence have an established family vote bank. Many mainstream political parties often prefer these candidate as they have a huge vote bank of their own. Decades of developments in their area, personal interactions and good contacts will the local administration are their hallmark. These electables account for the bulk of the electorate ranging between 25-35%.
FRINGE GROUP FACTOR
Every constituency in Pakistan has hundreds of small social, religious and ethnic organisations. Every Political party in Pakistan strives to win their support and at times their support becomes crucial. Their vote accounts for 5-10% of the electorate.
TREND VOTE FACTOR
This group of voters is the most ambiguous of all. They normally don't take interest in politics and only come out during elections. They sense the WIND and vote for the winning candidate and normally make up their mind in the last few weeks. This group accounts for 15-20% of the electorate.
MISCELLANEOUS FACTORS
Other than the above there are other factors that depend from region to region. Most common in them is the ethnicity factor which is more prevalent in deprived areas. In some pockets, the religious factor takes precedence above all factors. Sometimes a local factor takes over all other issues. Their no set benchmark for this segment can range from 5-30% of the electorate.
As a country, Pakistan has had unique experiences and experiments throughout its history. Unfortunately, political parties were not allowed to take roots, hence we see other factors come into play. Even a leader's charisma has a negligible effect when it comes to votes in rural and remote areas. Hopefully one day our democracy will become strong and benefit the ones that are the most in need.
PARTY VOTE FACTOR
Well, this is the most obvious factor, but many will be shocked to know that the party vote only accounts for on average 20% in every constituency. This increases if you are in an Urban area and decreases if it is a rural and remote area. The party vote may also not be a guaranteed vote, some may stay home if they differ with the party policy, but will not vote for the opponents.
PATWARI/QANOONGOH FACTOR
This is one of the most important factors as this Govt functionary has deep roots in his area. Politicians come and go but this Govt servant is always constant in his area. The local police touts and local spy agencies reps all get their area intel from him. The local landlords who occupy illegal lands need this functionary on their side for fiddling with the land records. When it comes to elections the Establishment has historically used them to tilt the balance for their favourite party. Some say this factor accounts for 15-20% of the electorate.
CANDIDATES GOODWILL FACTOR
The more experienced the candidate the more roots he has in his area. Some have been electioneering for generations and hence have an established family vote bank. Many mainstream political parties often prefer these candidate as they have a huge vote bank of their own. Decades of developments in their area, personal interactions and good contacts will the local administration are their hallmark. These electables account for the bulk of the electorate ranging between 25-35%.
FRINGE GROUP FACTOR
Every constituency in Pakistan has hundreds of small social, religious and ethnic organisations. Every Political party in Pakistan strives to win their support and at times their support becomes crucial. Their vote accounts for 5-10% of the electorate.
TREND VOTE FACTOR
This group of voters is the most ambiguous of all. They normally don't take interest in politics and only come out during elections. They sense the WIND and vote for the winning candidate and normally make up their mind in the last few weeks. This group accounts for 15-20% of the electorate.
MISCELLANEOUS FACTORS
Other than the above there are other factors that depend from region to region. Most common in them is the ethnicity factor which is more prevalent in deprived areas. In some pockets, the religious factor takes precedence above all factors. Sometimes a local factor takes over all other issues. Their no set benchmark for this segment can range from 5-30% of the electorate.
As a country, Pakistan has had unique experiences and experiments throughout its history. Unfortunately, political parties were not allowed to take roots, hence we see other factors come into play. Even a leader's charisma has a negligible effect when it comes to votes in rural and remote areas. Hopefully one day our democracy will become strong and benefit the ones that are the most in need.
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