How realistic is the possibility of import of crude or wheat from russia?

[Hyde]

With all due respect sir seriously you are a senior moderator.

You need to read up on things before posting.

You are dead wrong again.

1) The arrangement was for an oil swap agreement. We get the crude which our refineries can process.
2) Long term LNG contraxt at discount aswell.
3) Wheat on 30% discount.

We were supposed to receive first shipment in April.

This package is by no means to be ignored. It would have saved us at least a few billion dollars / annum. You don't get such opportunities often, and this is not grocery shopping we are talking about its crude/LNG and wheat we are talking about and such deals are unheard of.

The first time we heard about it when Khan Sahab was already ousted. There is no evidence which suggests such a deal was offered besides his verbal statement in the public speech and politicians always use such words that mean really nothing in real life

You are the first person saying it was meant to receive in April, whereas our limited relationship with Russia did not have any oil-related discussion officially before his visit. You probably do not know that Pakistan and Russia have enjoyed little diplomatic relationship since our independence, and our trade volume with Russia is not even 1% of our total trade. Our relationship is so immature that Putin was supposed to visit Pakistan about ten years ago. He cancelled the visit just a week before, citing that we had nothing to discuss, so he didn't know why he was travelling to Pakistan. Russia and India enjoy historical ties with each other, and Russia supplies billions of dollars worth of weapons to India, besides significant cooperation in the economic sector, so I fail to understand why he will offer such a package to us and not to his natural ally

Besides all that we must understand that most of our trade is routed to Europe and America. I am not sure about the exact number but it must be over 70% and only a fool will risk a trade of such magnitude to seek discount in crude oil. The US and Europe can easily replace our trade with India, Bangladesh and Philippines but we can not replace our trade with anyone else. We are already over-relying on China and must bring balance to our relationship. The last thing I would like to mention is that our economy is already in poor condition and we cannot afford any sanctions at present circumstances. We are blaming other countries for FATF and bending our back for that, how can we tolerate sanctions on us?

I am neither scaring you nor afraid of sanctions but we must not close our eyes shut from reality. Russia will do more harm to us than benefit at this stage... Things might change if there is no Ukraine war

 

[ziaulislam]

People here are speaking on top of their lungs that IK got a good deal from russia, however no MOU was ever signed, it's all based on what he said.

Moving forward if we do import crude from russia during deranged international political environment(russia ukraine war), how will if affect our:

Exports to the USA( Major Export partner)
Exports to EU
GSP+ status
SA and UAE response
IMF response
FATF decision

Personally i don't think we can afford to import anything from russia. Heck we can't even import shit from iran who's our neighbour and we want to import stuff from russia which is technically at war with the entire west.

Anyone here who says we should give the middle finger to the US, just look at how our economy is free falling because we are delaying the inevitable IMF program.

Unfortunately overseas pakistani want to reform pakistan through extreme measures via bankruptcy or civil war while they sip Starbucks abroad.

Unless USA put sanctions this would have been possible
USA doesnt has any sanctions

The only loss could have been GSP+ status which isnt more then few billions a year and we loose thay advantage anyway once india and china buy cheaper oil

 

[Patriot forever]

The first time we heard about it when Khan Sahab was already ousted. There is no evidence which suggests such a deal was offered besides his verbal statement in the public speech and politicians always use such words that mean really nothing in real life

You are the first person saying it was meant to receive in April, whereas our limited relationship with Russia did not have any oil-related discussion officially before his visit. You probably do not know that Pakistan and Russia have enjoyed little diplomatic relationship since our independence, and our trade volume with Russia is not even 1% of our total trade. Our relationship is so immature that Putin was supposed to visit Pakistan about ten years ago. He cancelled the visit just a week before, citing that we had nothing to discuss, so he didn't know why he was travelling to Pakistan. Russia and India enjoy historical ties with each other, and Russia supplies billions of dollars worth of weapons to India, besides significant cooperation in the economic sector, so I fail to understand why he will offer such a package to us and not to his natural ally

Besides all that we must understand that most of our trade is routed to Europe and America. I am not sure about the exact number but it must be over 70% and only a fool will risk a trade of such magnitude to seek discount in crude oil. The US and Europe can easily replace our trade with India, Bangladesh and Philippines but we can not replace our trade with anyone else. We are already over-relying on China and must bring balance to our relationship. The last thing I would like to mention is that our economy is already in poor condition and we cannot afford any sanctions at present circumstances. We are blaming other countries for FATF and bending our back for that, how can we tolerate sanctions on us?

I am neither scaring you nor afraid of sanctions but we must not close our eyes shut from reality. Russia will do more harm to us than benefit at this stage... Things might change if there is no Ukraine war

Sir again.. you are wrong that the deal does not exist. I will write a separate thread on it IA.

Coming to the 2nd point.

Its not a 1 and 0 game. All you need is a bit of confidence and resolve. The west did not do what you are proposing even when we did nuclear tests.

I urge you to see the SBP released non-oil CAD to get an idea furthermore crude/petroleum products and LNG in an economy is just like blood running through our bodies. We are talking about 1-2% GDP growth differential here.

Unless USA put sanctions this would have been possible
USA doesnt has any sanctions

The only loss could have been GSP+ status which isnt more then few billions a year and we loose thay advantage anyway once india and china buy cheaper oil

Exactly withdrawal of GSP+ status is still a very very distant possibility. They enjoy so much leverage on us just by dangling this GSP+ status.

We need to get rid of this mindset.

 

[Hyde]

Sir again.. you are wrong that the deal does not exist. I will write a separate thread on it IA.

Coming to the 2nd point.

Its not a 1 and 0 game. All you need is a bit of confidence and resolve. The west did not do what you are proposing even when we did nuclear tests.

I urge you to see the SBP released non-oil CAD to get an idea furthermore crude/petroleum products and LNG in an economy is just like blood running through our bodies. We are talking about 1-2% GDP growth differential here.

I would appreciate it if you create a thread and specifically prove it from a Russian source

Regarding your statement about nuclear tests... It just means you were not born or too young when we did the nuclear tests.. The west did impose sanctions and even the doubt of possessing nuclear weapons lead to sanctions in 1990s... The sanctions were lifted thanks to Pakistan’s cooperation in War on Terror

 

[Waterboy]

The first time we heard about it when Khan Sahab was already ousted. There is no evidence which suggests such a deal was offered besides his verbal statement in the public speech and politicians always use such words that mean really nothing in real life

You are the first person saying it was meant to receive in April, whereas our limited relationship with Russia did not have any oil-related discussion officially before his visit. You probably do not know that Pakistan and Russia have enjoyed little diplomatic relationship since our independence, and our trade volume with Russia is not even 1% of our total trade. Our relationship is so immature that Putin was supposed to visit Pakistan about ten years ago. He cancelled the visit just a week before, citing that we had nothing to discuss, so he didn't know why he was travelling to Pakistan. Russia and India enjoy historical ties with each other, and Russia supplies billions of dollars worth of weapons to India, besides significant cooperation in the economic sector, so I fail to understand why he will offer such a package to us and not to his natural ally

Besides all that we must understand that most of our trade is routed to Europe and America. I am not sure about the exact number but it must be over 70% and only a fool will risk a trade of such magnitude to seek discount in crude oil. The US and Europe can easily replace our trade with India, Bangladesh and Philippines but we can not replace our trade with anyone else. We are already over-relying on China and must bring balance to our relationship. The last thing I would like to mention is that our economy is already in poor condition and we cannot afford any sanctions at present circumstances. We are blaming other countries for FATF and bending our back for that, how can we tolerate sanctions on us?

I am neither scaring you nor afraid of sanctions but we must not close our eyes shut from reality. Russia will do more harm to us than benefit at this stage... Things might change if there is no Ukraine war

Unfortunately all the russia bs is coming from people established abroad. They know for a fact it's not a reality but they keep on pelting bullshit. At the end of the day the local pakistani will be crushed by any sanctions or default.

May allah free us from the shackles of these entitled superiority complexed overseas pakistani who dictate us, just because they send money back??

 

[Leviza]

O bhaio saray buss politics kartay jao
Koi aek proper crude oil refinery hai nahi aur chalay crude oil lainey
Bakwass

 

[farok84]

I would appreciate it if you create a thread and specifically prove it from a Russian source

Regarding your statement about nuclear tests... It just means you were not born or too young when we did the nuclear tests.. The west did impose sanctions and even the doubt of possessing nuclear weapons lead to sanctions in 1990s... The sanctions were lifted thanks to Pakistan’s cooperation in War on Terror

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524069594712969217

 

[AZ1]

People here are speaking on top of their lungs that IK got a good deal from russia, however no MOU was ever signed, it's all based on what he said.

Moving forward if we do import crude from russia during deranged international political environment(russia ukraine war), how will if affect our:

Exports to the USA( Major Export partner)
Exports to EU
GSP+ status
SA and UAE response
IMF response
FATF decision

Personally i don't think we can afford to import anything from russia. Heck we can't even import shit from iran who's our neighbour and we want to import stuff from russia which is technically at war with the entire west.

Anyone here who says we should give the middle finger to the US, just look at how our economy is free falling because we are delaying the inevitable IMF program.

Unfortunately overseas pakistani want to reform pakistan through extreme measures via bankruptcy or civil war while they sip Starbucks abroad.

Why care now? lol

 

[Patriot forever]

I would appreciate it if you create a thread and specifically prove it from a Russian source

Regarding your statement about nuclear tests... It just means you were not born or too young when we did the nuclear tests.. The west did impose sanctions and even the doubt of possessing nuclear weapons lead to sanctions in 1990s... The sanctions were lifted thanks to Pakistan’s cooperation in War on Terror

When did I say US did not impose sanctions on US after nuclear programme?

Defending your claims with made up arguments.

What I am disagreeing here is the nature of the sanctions. Did US block all trade as you are implying? ( Us is a trading partner of significance or Saudi Arabia will send all the expats back home if you disagree with anything they say or do any thing that displeases them).

Bring facts and numbers to the table next time instead of assumptions.

I will repeat what I said 'Diplomacy is not a 1 and 0 game'.

 

[PradoTLC]

India is importing oil from Russia and they even import oil from Iran, no one lift eyebrows, our problem is we are too afraid like a subservient slave.
The world is not what it was like 20 years ago, there is a new world order on the horizon, the hegemony of west has been challenged by China and Russia.
If West has problem with Pakistan importing anything from Russia they should engage with Pakistan with respect rather than dictate us like we are their slaves. US just removed IK instead of having talks on equal level, this shows the amount of control US has over Pakistan.

the west know we have plenty of mir jaffers running around...

f I was a foreign nation I would never trust Pakistan. What if tomorrow Pakistan betrays China or Turkey? These leaders have sold their souls to the devil

they also know it was Zadari who did this... iranians should have known better

 

[Two banks of the River]

People here are speaking on top of their lungs that IK got a good deal from russia, however no MOU was ever signed, it's all based on what he said.

Moving forward if we do import crude from russia during deranged international political environment(russia ukraine war), how will if affect our:

Exports to the USA( Major Export partner)
Exports to EU
GSP+ status
SA and UAE response
IMF response
FATF decision

Personally i don't think we can afford to import anything from russia. Heck we can't even import shit from iran who's our neighbour and we want to import stuff from russia which is technically at war with the entire west.

Anyone here who says we should give the middle finger to the US, just look at how our economy is free falling because we are delaying the inevitable IMF program.

Unfortunately overseas pakistani want to reform pakistan through extreme measures via bankruptcy or civil war while they sip Starbucks abroad.

Depends on the quality of crude you import. Further still you will want to keep an open tender so as to have some leverage over final negotiations.

How will it affecf all of our other aspects? Like trade with EU and US?

Or are we willing to jeopardise increase in exports to import cheaper petroleum.

Without a proper west led sanction on import of Russian crude. There will be no problem. Only western media critisism.

 

[sparten]

Its amusing to see so many guys who blindly followed the establishments narrative npw splutter to try and defend the undefendable.
Fact is that the establishment has fucked up, and Pakistan is going to suffer.
They should have stayed the VNOC when the Ukraine crises began until some things became clear.
But no. They were too blind to do so since they had a plan.

Imagine a General who has a plan for an offensive. A few hours before its to go ahead, aerial surveillance reveals that the enemy has moved additional troops. He still goes ahead since "he had a plan". He will rightly be sacked for it.

The establishment has fucked up. Big time. And Pakistan will suffer. For decades. We will be discussing this this in the same breath as we discuss the post 9/11 uturn, the decision to go for the 65 war and Kargil.

 

[Patriot forever]

O bhaio saray buss politics kartay jao
Koi aek proper crude oil refinery hai nahi aur chalay crude oil lainey
Bakwass

We have 3 major refineries and all 3 are undergoing capacity enhancement and upgradation after decades. ( started in PTI tenure)

When these upgrades come online than our reliance on imported finished products will be considerably reduced.

Currently our refineries produce 70% of petrol and 30% diesel which we consume and this upgradation and capacity enhancement will not only save us forex ( as refined products are traded at a premium) but also improve the existing quality of refined products which we produce locally.

The agreement was a crude swap, meaning we would have got crude which our refineries could handle.

 

[farok84]

We have 3 major refineries and all 3 are undergoing capacity enhancement and upgradation after decades. ( started in PTI tenure)

When these upgrades come online than our reliance on imported finished products will be considerably reduced.

Currently our refineries produce 70% of petrol and 30% diesel which we consume and this upgradation and capacity enhancement will not only save us forex ( as refined products are traded at a premium) but also improve the existing quality of refined products which we produce locally.

The agreement was a crude swap, meaning we would have got crude which our refineries could handle.

Hi,

But why can't our refineries, refine Urals (other than Parco)? If they can refine Arab Light, Iranian Blends, why not Russian. What is so different with Urals that it can't be refined at our refineries?

For reference, Arab Light's API varies from 31.8 to 33.4, Sulfur content from 1.77 to 2.06, Urals, API 30.68 to 31.78, Sulfur 1.35 to 1.48.

@niaz Sb has explained this at lengths in another thread.


"Before the sanctions, Russia exported about 5 mm BPD of crude second only to Saudi Arabia which exports about 6.6 mm BPD. Russian most commonly exported crude is the “ Urals”. Like all export crude oil, Urals is a blend of the heavy crude oils produced from the Urals and the Volga regions with the light sweet crude of Western Siberia. It has an API of 32 with 1.2% sulphur, hence not too different in quality to the Saudi Light of 33 API & 1.77% sulphur and Iran Light (32 to 33 API and Sulphur of 1.4%). Pakistani refineries have been using Iran Light and Arab Light thus there should be no problem running the Urals crude. I am not sure if Urals can also be used for making good quality lubricants."

Russia offered Pakistan 30% discount on oil and wheat. PM IK.

@Waterboy How many billions of dollars of goods and services do the countries you mentioned sell to Pakistan versus what they buy from Pakistan in return?

defence.pk

 

[Patriot forever]

Hi,

But why can't our refineries, refine Urals (other than Parco)? If they can refine Arab Light, Iranian Blends, why not Russian. What is so different with Urals that it can't be refined at our refineries?

For reference, Arab Light's API varies from 31.8 to 33.4, Sulfur content from 1.77 to 2.06, Urals, API 30.68 to 31.78, Sulfur 1.35 to 1.48.

View attachment 843348

View attachment 843349


@niaz Sb has explained this at lengths in another thread.


"Before the sanctions, Russia exported about 5 mm BPD of crude second only to Saudi Arabia which exports about 6.6 mm BPD. Russian most commonly exported crude is the “ Urals”. Like all export crude oil, Urals is a blend of the heavy crude oils produced from the Urals and the Volga regions with the light sweet crude of Western Siberia. It has an API of 32 with 1.2% sulphur, hence not too different in quality to the Saudi Light of 33 API & 1.77% sulphur and Iran Light (32 to 33 API and Sulphur of 1.4%). Pakistani refineries have been using Iran Light and Arab Light thus there should be no problem running the Urals crude. I am not sure if Urals can also be used for making good quality lubricants."

Russia offered Pakistan 30% discount on oil and wheat. PM IK.

@Waterboy How many billions of dollars of goods and services do the countries you mentioned sell to Pakistan versus what they buy from Pakistan in return?

defence.pk

I am not an expert on that but yes urals are almost the same grade as blends our refineries process.

We were getting crude which our refineries can process. ( This part is confirmed but it is not urals).

The deal is a crude swap agreement. Another thing to note is that it is done via 3rd country ( the term strategic partner is used) and not direct shipments from Russia. My assumption is this is done to avoid any risk of sanctions.