Zarvan
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POLITICS
| 4-minute read | 08-09-2015
RAVI RIKHYE
Republic of China (Taiwan) intelligence says China is constructing two 60,000-tonne aircraft carriers, one each as Dalian and Shanghai. China's first carrier Liaoning (L16) underwent a seven-year rebuild at Dalian before its 2012 commissioning, so choosing that shipyard is logical. Shanghai is a surprise and suggests China intends to build these capital warships in pairs. An operational date of 2020 is suggested for both. It is possible the next pair will appear in 2025.
India, having commissioned INS Vikrant (R11) five decades before the Chinese carrier, now will be eclipsed in five years. Currently we have INS Vikramaditya (R33), a 45,000-tonner that like China's Liaoning came from the former Soviet Union, and accepted into service in 2014. INS Virat (R22) will be decommissioned next year to be replaced on 2018 by the second Vikrant(presumably R44), which displaces 40,000-tons. INS Vishaal, 65,000-tons, is planned to commission in 2023. Since, however, it is still in planning, assuming it is rapidly put under construction, 2025 is a more likely in-service date.Right there is a problem. India proposes three carriers, one each for the eastern and western fleets, with one in maintenance/overhaul reserve. But long before we have our three, China will have three medium-sized carriers, and five when we have three. The fourth and fifth carriers may well be super-sized and nuclear-powered, in which they will likely appear later than 2025. Given the secrecy surrounding Chinese military programs, much of this is speculation. It is possibly the two carriers under construction will be larger and nuclear-power, but this is guesswork on the part of Chinese blogs.
No one is suggesting India will launch carriers into the China seas. India may develop global ambitions when its GDP passes $10-trillion, say, by 2030. Currently, however, our goal is limited to dominating the Indian Ocean. China is already making clear its goals are global. Earlier this year its 18th Escort Task Force, after finishing anti-piracy duty off Somalia and the Gulf of Aden visited France for exercises, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece. The task force consisted of a frigate, an LPD, and a supply ship. Currently its 19th Escort Task Force consisting one two frigates and a supply ship is on anti-piracy patrol, and it will be interesting to see if it makes any visits.
The PLAN had a big exercise with Russia in the North Pacific. Five ships - three frigates, an LPD and a supply ship boldly popped up in the Bering Sea off Alaska for a five-day visit. They even thumbed their noses at the US by grazing American US territorial waters. It is simply a matter of time before PLAN carriers turn-up west of Guam, then west of Hawaii, and then off the US West Coast. This analyst predicts based on current information that these events will start taking place from 2025.
For observers of India the question now becomes a simple one. With Chinese plans for a global navy now revealed, how will India react? Based on past national behaviour, it can be predicted we will NOT react. We will continue our slow, bumbling pace. At that it has to be admitted the Indian Navy at least has a plan under implementation. Inadequately, yes, too casually, yes. The Indian Air Force has a plan that is not being implemented. The Indian Army does not have a plan except on paper - and too is wildly inadequate.
China has last week announced it is to cut military manpower by 300,000 to free resources for its navy and air force. This cut will fall on the Army, which nominally has 1.25-million troops, though this analysts believe actual strength is less. Be that as it may, the PLA reduction is hardly good news for India.
The PLA has been moving slowly toward a force of 72 large brigades in 18 corps. At this time there are plenty of divisions still extant, mainly because the Chinese formation modernization foundered on the inability of the brigade staff to manage four maneuver and two artillery battalions plus several company-sized combat units. This analyst believes that the PLA has, or is close to, resolving these problems. The reason this is bad news for India is that the new brigades have considerably more combat capability than the divisions they replace.
So when Chinese carriers start visiting Burma, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, we are unlikely to be stirred into faster and coordinated action. We will remain snug in our customary lethargy. For example, the real possibility of a PLAN carrier task force on permanent station in the Indian Ocean by 2035, when China may have six operational carriers, is for us so distant that it is an unreality. The battle flags flying from Delhi signal, "No action imminent, go back to snoozing".
How China is building warships as India sleeps
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