How America Watches for a Nuclear Strike

Viet · Apr 6, 2022

Hundreds of satellites and spacecraft are keeping an eye on Russia’s nuclear forces from above. So far, they haven’t seen much to worry about.

In 2020, a rehearsal for a military parade in Moscow featured an RS-24 Yars, a Russian strategic nuclear missile.Credit...Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA, via Shutterstock
By William J. Broad
April 5, 2022

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In late February, when President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia declared that his country’s nuclear arms were entering “special combat readiness,” America’s surveillance gear went on high alert. Hundreds of imaging satellites, as well as other private and federal spacecraft, began looking for signs of heightened activity among Russia’s bombers, missiles, submarines and storage bunkers, which hold thousands of nuclear warheads.
The orbital fleet has yet to spot anything worthy of concern, image analysts said. Echoing the private assessments, U.S. and NATO officials have reported no signs that Russia is preparing for nuclear war. “We haven’t seen anything that’s made us adjust our posture, our nuclear posture,” Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser to President Biden, told reporters on March 23.

But America’s atomic watchdogs have reason to continue looking, experts said. Moscow has long practiced using relatively small nuclear blasts to offset battlefield losses. And some military experts are concerned over what Mr. Putin might do, after setbacks in Ukraine, to restore his reputation for edgy ruthlessness.

If Russia were preparing for atomic war, it would normally disperse its bombers to reduce their vulnerability to enemy attack, said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, a private research organization in Washington. But right now, he said, “none of that’s evident.”

Since 1962, when one of America’s first spy satellites failed to spot a shipment of missiles and 158 nuclear warheads that Moscow had sent to Cuba, America’s surveillance powers in orbit have soared. Today, hundreds of public and private imaging satellites continually scan the planet to assess crops, map cities, manage forests and, increasingly, unveil the secretive doings of nuclear states.

Russia’s arsenal exceeds all other nations’ nuclear stockpiles in size, creating a challenge for analysts to thoroughly assess its state of play. Private American firms such as Maxar, Capella Space and Planet Labs have provided analysts with hundreds of close-up images of Russia’s atomic forces. Planet Labs alone has a constellation of more than 200 imaging satellites and has made a specialty of zeroing in on military sites.

The private fleet tracked Russia’s nuclear forces long before the war, revealing maintenance work as well as routine drills and exercises. That kind of baseline understanding helps analysts ferret out true war preparations, experts said. “You track this stuff and begin to get a sense of what normal looks like,” said Mark M. Lowenthal, a former C.I.A. assistant director for analysis. “If you see a deviation, you have to ask if something’s up.”

A false alarm rang shortly after Mr. Putin’s declaration. A Twitter account, The Lookout, posted that a satellite had spotted two Russian nuclear submarines leaving a northwestern port. The Express, a London tabloid, warned in a headline of “strategic readiness.” The news flash got little attention because seasoned experts realized the sub departure was a planned exercise.

Still, Jeffrey Lewis and Michael Duitsman, satellite image specialists at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif., have continued to monitor Russia’s fleet of submarines because their movements can provide reliable indications of higher states of nuclear war readiness.

Normally, roughly half of Russia’s submarines equipped with long-range missiles go out to sea on scheduled patrols while the others remain at their piers for rest, repairs and maintenance. Analysts see empty piers as a warning sign.

To assess the current situation, Dr. Lewis zoomed in on a large submarine base known as Gadzhiyevo in Russia’s Arctic north. Images of it on Google Earth showa dozen massive piers jutting out from rocky fjords.

everal submarines to be out at sea.”

A satellite image annotated by specialists at the Middlebury Institute showing Russian submarines docked at the Gadzhiyevo naval base in the Arctic on March 7.

Image
A satellite image annotated by specialists at the Middlebury Institute showing Russian submarines docked at the Gadzhiyevo naval base in the Arctic on March 7.Credit...Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

The team also studied images of a military base in the Siberian wilds where mobile launchers move long-range missiles on backcountry roads as a defensive tactic. Mr. Duitsman said the images — taken March 30 by one of Capella’s radar satellites, which can see through clouds as well as nighttime darkness — showed no signs of unusual activity.