Hezbollah and Iran May Need Plan B After Syria Bombing

[thefreesyrian]

A day after several members of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle were assassinated at a cabinet meeting in Damascus, Assad’s allies may be beginning to re-evaluate his longevity and what comes next, some regional analysts said.

But speeches by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah Wednesday and Iran’s initially stunned reaction to events in Damascus suggest neither was quite prepared for the Syrian status quo to shift so quickly.

Syrian State TV aired a video of Assad Thursday amid speculation about his whereabouts, CNN reported. The video showed Assad conferring with his new Defense Minister Gen. Fahd Jassem al-Freij, who was appointed to succeed Gen. Daoud Rajha, one of the top Assad security aides killed at a cabinet meeting.

Russia and China, meantime, on Thursday vetoed a Western-backed UN Security Council Resolution that would have imposed possible sanctions if Syrian security forces did not pull back to barracks within 10 days.

Despite the latest diplomatic reprieve, “Assad’s strategic value to his allies is eroding quickly,” Beirut-based analyst Emile Hokayem told Al-Monitor in an interview Wednesday. “Hezbollah and Iran will increasingly see any assistance they provide to him as a sunk cost.”

“I don’t believe Iran will double down on Syria,” Hokayem said. Rather, he added, Iranian “strategists have got to be wondering how they got their assessments so wrong. The Iranians thought that Assad had more tricks in his tool box. The Iran regime was ‘better’ at dealing with its own defectors. That is the problem with a minority regime.”

Each country’s analysis of the Syria situation has been limited by the nature of its Syrian interlocutors, Hokayem posited. And “the Syria-Iran relationship is owned by security guys who operate in the dark shadows,” he said. “We don’t know those people. These guys have been working on this for 30 years. There is no love among [the Syrians and Iranians] at a people to people level. But among the security elites there is."

Iran analyst Hossein Shahbazi agreed, saying he came away from a recent conversation with an Iranian official with the impression they had not begun to prepare for a Syria Plan B. The Iranians thought the international Contact Group meeting on Syria in Geneva last month “provided the right framework” for mediating a solution between the two sides, he said.

“The Iranian government does not have a solely realpolitik” approach to Syria, Shahbazi told Al-Monitor in an interview Wednesday. “What we would call their ‘soft power’ is very important, compared to hard power. Their ideology still believes in the [Islamic] revolutionary values. They have their natural relations, influence and interest in the region but do not want to go around just dictating” as they see Western powers doing in the Middle East.

Although the Iranian government is close to Assad, “it won’t want to sink with his ship,” Iranian-born analyst Meir Javedanfar told Al-Monitor Wednesday. “Ayatollah Khamenei is most likely to leave Assad the moment he realizes that his regime has no chance of survival." After the July 18 assassinations, Javedanfar continued, “increasing number of Iranian government officials observing Syria could say that moment is now.”

Regarding the assassinations of members of Assad’s inner circle in Damascus Wednesday, Hokayem said he did not see it as a turning point, but rather reinforcement of the descending course of the Assad regime that has been evident to him for weeks.

“The Assad regime has been on a downward trajectory it can no longer reverse,” Hokayem said. “It can only get worse for him.”

“The insurgency has been scoring symbolic and military victories in the past few weeks that seemed irreversible to me,” he said. “Once you have high-level defectors — that’s irreversible: they aren’t going back.”

Previously, “a lot of fence-sitters still believed in the idea of the [Syrian] state and Assad as the one carrying it,” Hokayem said. But once the fighting “hit the capital in such a spectacular way” the past five days, “the narrative that Assad has been trying to build — that he still embodies the state — went up in flames.”

Hezbollah and Iran May Need Plan B After Syria Bombing - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

 

[thefreesyrian]

As Chaos Grows in Syria, Worries Grow on the Sidelines
By THOMAS ERDBRINK and ROD NORDLAND


TEHRAN — Gone is the talk here that last year’s Arab Spring was a gift from God.


Now some in Iran are even starting to worry about how much might be at stake if President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, long a client state of Iran’s, collapses — which after a fifth day on Thursday of heavy street fighting in Damascus no longer sounds inconceivable.

The fall of the Assad government would remove Shiite Iran’s last and most valued foothold in the Arab world, and its opening to the Mediterranean. It would give Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states their long-sought goal of countering Iranian influence in the region, finally splitting the alliance between Tehran and Damascus that has lasted for decades. And it would further erode Iran’s role as a patron of the Middle East’s revolutionaries, a goal that moderate Arabs and the United States have long sought.

Already the militant Palestinian group Hamas, long dependent on Syria and Iran, has thrown its support behind the Syrians in the streets seeking Mr. Assad’s overthrow.

Worse might follow, from Tehran’s point of view. Iran and Syria’s last revolutionary ally, the Hezbollah party that dominates Lebanon, would lose one of its main sources of weapons and financial support. And Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance might be torn apart, raising the threat of another civil war there.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah quickly responded to the government’s worst day so far to make its strongest declaration that it would not abandon Mr. Assad.

In a televised address on Wednesday night, the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, offered eloquent condolences for the deaths of the three high-ranking Syrian officials killed earlier in the day. “These martyr leaders were comrades in arms in the conflict with the Israeli enemy, and we are confident that the Arab Syrian Army, which overcame the unbearable, will be able to persist and crush the hopes of the enemies,” he said.

He credited Mr. Assad and his government with the victory that Hezbollah claimed against Israel in the 2006 war in Lebanon and with saving Gaza during the 2009 Israeli incursion. “The most valuable weapons we had in our possession were from Syria,” he said. “The missiles we used in the second Lebanon war were made in Syria. And it’s not only in Lebanon but in Gaza as well. Where did these missiles come from? The Saudi regime? The Egyptian regime? These missiles are from Syria.”

It was a stunning testament, said Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics. “For Hezbollah, it is a point of no return now,” he said. With the speech, “Hezbollah made it very clear that there is an umbilical cord between the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, and this umbilical cord is existential. They are, as he said, comrades in arms.”

Iran, too, has been staunch in its support of Syria, whose ruling Alawite minority belong to a branch of Shiite Islam, the predominant faith in Iran. Tehran continues to provide Mr. Assad with economic and public support, and it might be sending military assistance as well.

But some voices inside Iran are worried about the awkward position imposed on anyone who supports Mr. Assad against what seems like an increasingly popular and widespread uprising.

“We are supporting some uprisings and ignoring others,” said Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, a Middle East analyst based in Tehran. “Arab people do not believe us anymore. We come across as antagonists, following our political agenda.”

The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran was once a model for the region, but the Arab world’s revolutionaries now look to Egypt, he said, with its experiment in democratizing an Islamic society. “Instead of gaining influence, we are witnessing the emergence of new powerful countries that in the future could pose a challenge to us,” Mr. Shamsolvaezin said.

A year ago, Hossein Alaei, a former admiral in the Revolutionary Guards, predicted on the Web site Irandiplomacy that “ideally” Mr. Assad would survive. “But this ideal might not be fulfilled,” Mr. Alaei wrote. “We should think of other ways to protect our national security.”

Iran’s unrelenting support for Syria has cost it other friends in the region, as the Arab Spring gives aspiring young rebels a model other than the revolution of Iran’s elderly ayatollahs. Most Arabs are Sunnis rather than Shiites. Beginning in February, the leadership of Hamas, which had long enjoyed a friendly exile in Damascus and military support from Iran, began moving to Qatar and other havens and publicly expressed support for Syria’s revolutionaries. With Iran hampered and hurt financially by Western sanctions, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have proven to be more helpful and better-financed allies.

The Nasrallah speech tried to make it seem “as if nothing had happened since then, as if the Arab Spring did not happen,” said Sami Nader, an analyst and a professor of international relations at St. Joseph University in Beirut.

“This is the most important transformation in the history of the Arab world,” Mr. Nader said, “and it is proving that Islam and democracy are compatible.”

The speech was in effect an acknowledgment of how completely Hezbollah depends on the Assad government’s survival. “He is telling them he is not going to leave Assad alone,” said Sarkis Naoum, a columnist for An-Nahar in Beirut, “that by protecting Assad he will be protecting his party, himself and his community, and also the interests of Syria and Iran.”

Mr. Naoum said he worried about what would happen in Lebanon if the Syrian government collapsed, or descended further into sectarian conflict. Many sectarian fault lines in Syria — Alawites and Christians versus Sunnis, for instance — are mirrored in Lebanon, which has large Christian, Alawite and Sunni minorities of its own. Already, there have been conflicts between Alawites and Sunnis in northern Lebanon. Hezbollah has refrained from any action that would threaten strife, but that may change, Mr. Naoum suggested.

“If it feels threatened by chaos in Syria, or even Assad’s regime collapses, it will have to take action inside Lebanon, at least to paralyze those who are working with the rebels, especially in the north,” he said.

“It is a lose-lose situation for Hezbollah,” he said. “Either they stay on what most Arabs would say is the wrong side of history, or they abandon an ally that links them with the rest of the Shiite world and find themselves isolated.”

An Assad victory would change that thinking, of course, and Mr. Nasrallah professed confidence. “We are confident that the Syrian Army, which has had to cope with the intolerable, has the ability, determination and resolve to endure and foil the enemies’ hopes,” he said.

That, too, is the prevailing official view in Tehran, which has its own example of successfully repressing popular dissent, after the 2009 elections. “Have no doubt, Assad’s regime will survive,” said Hamid Reza Taraghi, an Iranian foreign policy expert and a politician whose views are close to the Iranian government’s.

Mr. Shamsolvaezin was not so sure. “We were popular some years ago, but our ethical decisions have made a crisis for us,” he said. “We hoped all in the region would turn away from the U.S. Now, we should be careful they do not turn their backs on us.”

Thomas Erdbrink reported from Tehran, and Rod Nordland from Cairo. Mai Ayyad contributed reporting from Cairo.

 

[Surenas]

Syrian opposition: Several soldiers with Iranian ID cards captured

Syrian opposition fighters who recently took over border crossings in various parts of the country have said they have captured or killed a number of soldiers who hold Iranian ID cards in the past few days.

Speaking to Today's Zaman, opposition fighters claimed that some of the soldiers they captured even had Iranian Revolutionary Guard identification documents. “We are now openly fighting with Iran,” they added, asserting that the heavy weapons and helicopters of the Syrian army are generally used by Iranians.

Many Syrian activists say they have heard some pro-government forces speaking Farsi when they were tortured in prisons in Syria. Iran, a key ally of the Syria regime, confirmed in May that it had, as previously speculated, sent troops to aid President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on opponents in his country.

“If the Islamic Republic was not present in Syria, the massacre of civilians would have been twice as bad,” General Ismail Qa'ani, deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, told Tehran's ISNA news agency.

Syrian opposition: Several soldiers with Iranian ID cards captured

 

[Serpentine]

Syrian opposition: Several soldiers with Iranian ID cards captured

What a reliable source:Syrian opposition.
That's the most ridiculous post of the day.Seriously?Do you think Iran would send all those soldiers with ID cards?I hear a rumor that they were carrying a 50 meter Iranian flag too.

 

[Takaavar]

Syrian opposition: Several soldiers with Iranian ID cards captured

Oh.. and where's pic?

What a reliable source:Syrian opposition.
That's the most ridiculous post of the day.Seriously?Do you think Iran would send all those soldiers with ID cards?I hear a rumor that they were carrying a 50 meter Iranian flag too.

 

[Surenas]

What a reliable source:Syrian opposition.
That's the most ridiculous post of the day.Seriously?Do you think Iran would send all those soldiers with ID cards?I hear a rumor that they were carrying a 50 meter Iranian flag too.

I don't think nothing. I just post a article I saw about a possible Iranian activity in Syria. Besides that, according to this vid, the men who are wearing red accessories on their uniform are IRGC:

‫

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

What a reliable source:Syrian opposition.
That's the most ridiculous post of the day.Seriously?Do you think Iran would send all those soldiers with ID cards?I hear a rumor that they were carrying a 50 meter Iranian flag too.

Actually, yes, there is an effective Iranian presence in Syria to oppress the opposition. Many were captured and killed.

 

[Harry_Thomason]

Assad is a long LONG way from a fall. West with Arabs are sending more and more mercenaries, so there suppose to be more terror from them, but so far Syria is dealing with them just fine. Like clearing Damascus from a wave of terrorists this weekend.

 

[Wright]

Assad is a cool guy. I have no idea why the Syrians want him out.

 

[Syrian Lion]

Actually, yes, there is an effective Iranian presence in Syria to oppress the opposition. Many were captured and killed.

Those the engineers you terrorists kidnapped, those are engineers who been in Syria long before the issue

and here are the terrorists that were killed, from Egypt and Jordan

 

[Pakistanisage]

I am sure both Iran and Lebanese Hizbullah are in a tough spot as they are principled people and always support the underdog. Supporting a ruthless murderer must be heavy on their conscience.

 

[Serpentine]

Actually, yes, there is an effective Iranian presence in Syria to oppress the opposition. Many were captured and killed.

Oh really?You are showing videos of engineers?Even the terrorists knew they are in Syria to build a power plant.So after making them confess they fight on behalf of Iran,they freed them and now they have came back to Iran.How desperate someone can be to post only these kinds of videos.
But there are numerous videos showing mercenaries from other Arab countries being killed by Syrian army.
I told you before,Iran doesn't need to send troops to Syria,but if Syrian officials ask Iran,maybe we send some there.Helping killing some terrorists.

 

[Syrian Lion]

Oh really?You are showing videos of engineers?Even the terrorists knew they are in Syria to build a power plant.So after making them confess they fight on behalf of Iran,they freed them and now they have came back to Iran.How desperate someone can be to post only these kinds of videos.
But there are numerous videos showing mercenaries from other Arab countries being killed by Syrian army.
I told you before,Iran doesn't need to send troops to Syria,but if Syrian officials ask Iran,maybe we send some there.Helping killing some terrorists.

And i would like to mention the Joint Defense agreement with Syria and Iran, So Iran legally can send any troops if Syria wants, but Syria doesnt want, our army can step on rats easily, anyway just like Saudi send its army to Bahrain, why? oh bc they are in GCC? again Syria and Iran have a mutual agreement on joint defense

 

[Serpentine]

And i would like to mention the Joint Defense agreement with Syria and Iran, So Iran legally can send any troops if Syria wants, but Syria doesnt want, our army can step on rats easily, anyway just like Saudi send its army to Bahrain, why? oh bc they are in GCC? again Syria and Iran have a mutual agreement on joint defense

You don't know why Saudis sent troops to Bahrain? Because there were 'terrorists' there.The only difference is that Bahraini 'terrorists' didn't have any guns,but Syrian terrorists do have guns.

 

[Homajon]

One year ago I read articles with exactly the same content, and it shows how desperate you are, when you give such sources:

Although the Iranian government is close to Assad, “it won’t want to sink with his ship,” Iranian-born analyst Meir Javedanfar told Al-Monitor Wednesday. “Ayatollah Khamenei is most likely to leave Assad the moment he realizes that his regime has no chance of survival." After the July 18 assassinations, Javedanfar continued, “increasing number of Iranian government officials observing Syria could say that moment is now.”

Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian - Israeli Middle East analyst. He teaches the “Contemporary Iranian Politics” course at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya.

And one year ago, he said exactly the same:

Khamenei won't support Assad to the end

Iran and Syria have long been allies, yet as if Khameni realises Assad's situation is not salvageable, he will abandon him

Khamenei won't support Assad to the end | Meir Javedanfar | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk



And the second article you posted is from the New York Times, and it says a lot that you don't post the link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/w...collapses-iran-faces-loss-of-valued-ally.html


So you provide sources, which since the beginning of the Syria-crises have said exactly what you want to hear, but as you see, nothing of it became reality.