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Gulf's financial wealth could be over in 15 years: IMF

No need for me to engage with that Arabized Anatolian troll and his utter lunacy and Arab-obsession. Articles won't change any ground realities either. So let him waste his time, I certainly don't bother creating threads (they already exist) predicting doom and gloom for Turkey and detailing the economic mess that Turkey has been in recent years.

I read somewhere, will try to dig up the article, UAE's SWF is $1.2tr while KSA is $825bn. On top of this you have gold reserves, T-bills and more.

Including 100's of billions (if not trillions) of investments home and abroad including big stocks in some of the most valuable companies across the world.

KSA/GCC is mostly untapped economic territory. Some of the fastest growing and youngest populations in the world (always a great indicator of future economic growth by default, even failed yet populous states punch way above their less populous counterparts), no taxation, untapped representation for women in the workforce (albeit increasing each month) who are some of the most educated in the entire Muslim/developing world, enormous potential for alternative energy, mineral industries, agriculture, business, construction, science/tech, tourism etc.

Trust me, the GCC will be more than fine, in the last 50-60 years, there have been large periods of low oil prices (lower than now) and nobody vanished.

This will only strengthen KSA/GCC and accelerate the Saudi Vision 2030 and the ongoing positive economic reforms. Will speed the process up.

@Slav Defence

There is already a thread about the economy of KSA. Duplicate threads, especially if created with the sole purpose of trolling using dubious/propaganda sources, is not allowed. Moreover I can post 100's of articles claiming the opposite, so unless the goal is to have a troll thread/flame war, I am afraid this thread is what it is given the mental state of the thread starter and his agenda.

But I guess this allows me to create a similar thread about Turkey covering everything from Turkey's possible disintegration in the near/long-term future to everything else? My suspicion is that such a thread would be viewed as a troll thread, much like the nature of this very thread.

You need to address the baseless rhetoric with facts, and then move on. Stooping to their level only achieves a ban, and hence unabated senseless regurgitation by them.

Given that there are no Arabs left on this forum, a new strategy from your end would be pertinent.

Best Wishes!

P.S. Being Pakistanis we are all very well aware of what IMF is, and whose agenda it serves. So dont worry about what they say, we all know how much "Gospel truth" they propagate.

I tried to do a quick overview but I honestly don't bother linking to 100's of links (I have covered all those topics in detail in other threads that I tend to write in from time to time to update them) in what is a troll thread when the troll that I am discussing with, will return to posting his Daily Sabah, Russian propaganda etc. nonsense.

The funniest thing is that the IMF (the article this ridiculous thread is based on) is positive that changes will occur and also partially praising the reforms in KSA/GCC but saying that it is not enough if the current status continues until 2030/next 15 years, but the funny thing is that nobody is expecting that to happen given that the future global financial crisis will just speed up the reforms and FORCE the rulers and people to do what is economically healthy. Reduce wastefulness, reduce the extremely pampered welfare and public sector etc. List is very long. We already saw what lower oil prices have done (the many positive aspects) since 2014.

KSA/GCC is in a FAR better position than practically every oil/gas producer in the world to tackle this successfully.

BTW this article from the very respected NATURE is 4 years old and you can imagine what has been occurring in the meantime.

Oiling the wheels on a road to success
Nature volume 532, pagesS13–S15(2016)Cite this article

With the benefit of a sustainable plan and the funds to back it, Saudi Arabia is aiming high.

Saudi Arabia's scientific development may be in its infancy, but the oil-rich Kingdom is making strides in terms of research investment and publication — with a clear ambition to one day join those in the highest echelons.

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KAUST students embark on a new school year with a commencement ceremony. The relatively new university has quickly made an impact on the Nature Index. Credit: KAUST
In 2012, Saudi Arabia had a weighted fractional count (WFC) of 52.84 in the index, sitting behind Turkey, Iran, Mexico, Chile and South Africa. In four years it rose 86.8% to reach a WFC of 98.67, leapfrogging all these countries to compete with Chile and Argentina globally. Saudi Arabia ranks at number 31 in the world in terms of WFC — up from 39 in 2012.

The country has risen even higher in specific subject areas. In chemistry, for example, it has surpassed countries with a strong scientific impact like Finland and Ireland, with its WFC rising to 66.54, achieving almost a three-fold increase from its position in 2012.

Institutionally, the country's leading science hub King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) made an impressive leap in its WFC between 2012 and 2015, carving a place for itself to compete with American and European research powerhouses.

In just four years, its WFC has risen to become higher than those of prestigious institutions including the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), the University of Georgia, United States, and Dresden University of Technology, Germany, to name a few. The output of all of these institutions dwarfed KAUST's in 2012, but KAUST's impressive trajectory since then has seen its WFC shoot to 72 in 2015, overtaking these heavy-hitters.

The country's science development ambitions have been backed by action. Since 2008, the country has embarked on a multi-tiered strategy that will see the Kingdom overhaul its science infrastructure, build high-spec labs, secure grants for research in priority areas in applied science, and link science to industries that drive the economy.

The strategy, broken into four stages to be implemented by 2030, aims to eventually “see Saudi Arabia become a leader in Asia and give it an economic power based on science,” says Abdulaziz Al-Swailem, vice president of scientific research support at King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST).

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The Saudi Human Genome Project will sequence 100,000 human genomes to conduct biomedical research in the Saudi population. Credit: Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images
Saudi Arabia's march to the top Saudi Arabia's efforts to boost its scientific research have been paying off, with its output in the Nature Index (WFC) rising steadily over the years. The two graphs below highlight Saudi Arabia's rise compared to other nations, both overall and for chemistry.

Overall output In 2012 Saudi Arabia's overall output in the index was below all the countries shown, but continuous efforts have seen the Kingdom's WFC rise to overtake them all in 2015.

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Chemistry More marked than its overall rise, Saudi Arabia has made great strides in chemistry. After accelerated growth, which saw the Kingdom's chemistry WFC triple since 2012, it has outshone many larger players in the field in 2015.

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The Kingdom's science investments focus on applied research that feeds directly into the country's industrial interests, particularly the oil and energy sector. But even in its strong subjects, chemistry and the physical sciences, Saudi Arabia's WFC remains modest compared to big players in Asia like China, Japan and South Korea.

“Saudi Arabia could look to some successful emerging economies for inspiration.”

To truly swim comfortably with these bigger fish, Saudi Arabia may benefit from looking at successful emerging economies in Asia.

One inspiration could be India. In addition to multi-disciplinary scientific and technical advancements that have improved its output in the index from 736.5 to 901.4 in the past four years, the subcontinental giant has joined the exclusive club of countries that have launched successful space missions.

Like Saudi Arabia, India's leading research institutes focus on chemistry, and their total output currently outstrips their Saudi Arabian counterparts by almost a factor of seven (the latter surpassing 472 in 2015, while the former is 66.5).

India's prowess in chemistry is something that Saudi Arabia can aspire to, considering that working conditions for researchers in the Kingdom are more conducive.

India's science ecosystem is far from perfect. Research funding cannot keep up with inflation and a general slowdown in the country's economy. In addition, commentators from the research community say the funding processes are lengthy, bureaucratic, and provide little feedback when applications for grants are turned down. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's healthy stream of oil revenue provides assured funding for the country's state-of-the-art research facilities.

While India has slightly increased spending and dedicated US$1.19 billion for the next fiscal year (2016–2017) for science, it has around 700 universities and 200,000 full-time researchers drawing on the same funding pot. By contrast, Saudi Arabia has pledged an education and training budget of US$50.9 billion for next year, which includes higher education and scientific research. With a total population of just 30 million, it has a much lower number of full-time researchers competing for the available resources.

Another impressive trajectory that Saudi Arabia might look to emulate is that of Singapore, which has a smaller population as well and has managed to climb high in the index. Like the Kingdom, Singapore also has a focus on chemistry research, and it has put together a similar top-down national science strategy for research institutes across the country. Both countries have strong collaborations with top universities around the world and are welcoming of foreign researchers in their efforts to drive innovation.

Mansour Alghamdi, director of the general directorate of scientific awareness and publishing at KACST, is optimistic that Saudi Arabia can bridge the large gap that currently exists in the volume of scientific output between it and such countries as India and Singapore.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a clear plan to do so and it has the resources,” he says.

Future growth

An internationally rising star This graph shows KAUST's rise compared to a selection of other institutions*. *Institutions shown are those that were furthest above KAUST in 2012, have experienced overall growth in WFC by 2015 and have been overtaken by KAUST in 2015. For clarity, only 2012 and 2015 data points are shown.

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In 2012, Saudi's ranking in research output, with a WFC of 52.8, meant it was comparable with countries like South Africa, Turkey and Iran, all hovering around the 60–70 mark. Its WFC stood way below countries like Mexico, Hungary, Chile, Greece and Argentina.

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Saudi Arabian researchers benefit from cutting-edge labs and generous funding that has boosted the country's R&D. Credit: Top: KACST; Bottom: KAUST
Four years later, the country's research outlook is very different and it is surpassing countries like Argentina, Mexico and Hungary in the index, and levelling the playing field with Chile. Chemistry research led the country's rapid rise to surpass these countries, but its life sciences and physical sciences WFCs of 8.5 and 31.5 still lag behind.

However, the Kingdom's AC has been steadily growing in these two fields over the past four years, hinting at the ever-increasing significance of international collaborations. It seems that Saudi Arabian researchers are casting their nets ever wider and are participating in publishing more articles, to the detriment of the WFC accredited for these articles.

Though international collaboration has proved fruitful, Saudi Arabia must keep a focus on nurturing home-grown talent, says Nasser Al-Aqeeli, dean of research at King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM), based in Dhahran's 'techno valley' in the eastern region of the Kingdom. In the next five years, he says, the country will focus on a programme for national capacity building.

A good first step was the Saudi government's decision to create a large scholarship programme in 2005, arguably the largest in the world, which has seen more than 200,000 young Saudi Arabians studying abroad. This makes Saudi Arabian students in the United States the fourth largest bloc of expatriate students, following those of China, India and South Korea. The government hopes these students will come back and drive a scientific culture in the country.

“Its rise up the ranks depends on a 'self-correcting mechanism' of a slow start to sustainable growth.”

Saudi Arabia is also looking to increase its applied research focus, which is an integral part of the current phase of its national science strategy, while securing good funding for basic research as well. Al-Aqeeli says that Saudi's journey involves what he termed a “self-correcting mechanism” where the country is having a slow start in high-impact research, but a more sustainable one. An eventual future move towards basic research might help Saudi Arabia's research capacity to mature.boxed-text

https://www.nature.com/articles/532S13a

Enjoy.
 
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Very interesting

Saudi Arabia’s Deficit To Soar As Oil Price War Rages On

By Irina Slav - Mar 23, 2020, 10:00 AM CDT
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Saudi Arabia could book a budget deficit of as much as $61 billion this year under the double blow of the coronavirus pandemic and the global oil glut, research from financial firm Jadwa Investments has suggested.

This would represent almost 8 percent of the Kingdom’s GDP, Arabian Business reported, adding that the budget revenue for the year will be a bit lower than what the government projected in its budget draft, at $210 billion (791 billion riyals).

Spending, on the other hand, will come in at $270 billion (1.02 trillion riyals).



"Overall, it is worth noting that, at this moment in time, the range of potential effects of Covid-19 on the kingdom’s economy are highly uncertain," the Saudi firm said as quoted by Arabian Business.

Some 511 cases of Covid-19 have been diagnosed so far in the Kingdom. According to Jadwa, as negative as the pandemic is for oil prices, there is space for optimism, mostly because governments are pledging fiscal stimulus and other support measures for national economies. According to the Saudi company, this should lead to a rebound in oil demand and this, in turn, will help Saudi Arabia achieve significant economic growth, from 0.3 percent for 2019 to as much as 6.3 percent.Related: Largest Oil Glut In History Could Force Crude Prices Even Lower

How realistic this is remains to be seen, as many analysts expect crude oil price to fall even further, not least because of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to boost production past the 12-million-bpd mark starting next month. Under the weight of the combination between a pandemic and a rising supply of oil, Brent and West Texas Intermediate have both dropped below $30 a barrel, with Brent at $28.52 and WTI at $22.84 a barrel at the time of writing.



Meanwhile, analysts are warning that global oil storage is filling up and this could push prices further down, possibly as low as $10 a barrel. There are some 750 million barrels of oil in storage globally, according to calculations from data analytics company OilX, and this could rise to 1 billion barrels.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...eficit-To-Soar-As-Oil-Price-War-Rages-On.html

Coronavirus shutdowns to hit Dubai's economic lifeline
Author: AFP|Update: 23.03.2020 15:50

An empty UAE shopping mall amid the coronavirus pandemic / © AFP

Dubai is closing its famous malls and halting all passenger flights, capping a series of shutdowns on once-thriving sectors that serve as its economic lifeline but which have been sacrificed to curb coronavirus.

A few days after barring foreigners, including those with residency permits, from entering the country, the emirate said it would close its airports to commercial flights, shut shopping centres and restrict restaurants to home deliveries.

Within hours of the announcement, which will be enforced by Wednesday, the city's vast malls were already largely deserted, with corridors and concourses empty and shops devoid of customers.

Boasting the most diversified economy in the Gulf, Dubai derives 94 percent of its public revenues from non-oil sources which also make up the majority of its gross domestic product.

The city-state presents itself as a global hub for tourism, trade and finance, boasting one of the biggest real estate markets in the region.

The glitzy emirate, which last year welcomed 16.8 million visitors, has now completely shut tourism outlets, directly impacting hundreds of hotels and countless dining and entertainment facilities -- the backbone of an economy already stressed by a downturn.

Dubai carrier Emirates Airline, the biggest in the Middle East, transported some 90 million passengers last year, while Dubai Airport retained its status as the biggest for international passengers, serving 89 million travellers.

In the wake of the airports announcement Emirates said it would suspend all passenger flights by March 25, and Abu Dhabi-based carrier Etihad said it would also temporarily halt all its flights to and from its home base.

The UAE -- which takes in seven emirates including Dubai -- has so far announced a stimulus package worth $35 billion which includes injections into the stock market and support for various sectors.

- Bad timing -

The UAE on Friday announced its first two deaths from the COVID-19 disease, having reported more than 150 cases so far.

Capital Economics said that efforts to contain the coronavirus "look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region hard."

In several Mideastern countries, including Dubai, tourism accounts for about 12.5 percent of GDP, the London-based consultancy said in a report.

Dubai is vulnerable to the hit to the sector, it said, especially as the shutdown is taking place at Dubai's peak time for arrivals, when the climate is cooler and welcoming, ahead of the scorching summer.

"According to Mastercard, tourist spending in the Emirate was the largest of any city in the world last year," it said.

If the travel restrictions continue until the end of the second quarter as currently assumed, "we estimate that the downturn in tourism sectors will directly knock at least 2-3 percent off GDP this year," Capital Economics said.

This comes at a time when Dubai has been battling a downturn in which GDP grew by just 1.9 percent and 2.1 percent in the past two years, the weakest since the 2008 global financial crisis.

- Expo threatened -

Wholesale and retail trade represents a quarter of Dubai's GDP, worth in excess of $25 billion.

The health ministry and the disaster management authority said in a statement early Monday that the move to shut malls would come into force within 48 hours and last "for a renewable period of two weeks".

Dubai's vast shopping centres include Mall of the Emirates, which has its own indoor ski slope, and Dubai Mall which is one of the world's largest and is next to Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest structure.

The coronavirus closures also come at a time when Dubai prepares for the global trade fair, Expo 2020, scheduled to open in October.

Organisers said on Sunday that they will "reassess and adjust" preparations due to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Many of Dubai's economic forecasts had been based around the event and any decision to cancel or postpone it will be a heavy blow.

The emirate has spent tens of billion of dollars to develop its infrastructure and services to be ready to host the six-month fair, with the hope of attracting around 25 million visitors.

Dubai's bourse has also been hammered in the crisis, shedding a third of its value since the start of March. On Monday, it dipped 3.8 percent.
https://today.rtl.lu/news/business-and-tech/a/1488641.html
 
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Gulf economies rocked by coronavirus and oil price war


-Very interesting and insightful read.

https://www.ft.com/content/b7a7902a-68ff-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3


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Saudi Arabia’s Radical New Oil Strategy
Mar 23, 2020 BERNARD HAYKEL
Although Saudi Arabia's recent decision to hike oil production coincided with the broader COVID-19 crisis, it reflects a broader and more fundamental strategic shift led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. With a global clean-energy transition inevitable, MBS is desperate to cash out while the Kingdom still can.

PRINCETON – Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to crank up oil production represents a dramatic shift in its thinking about energy markets and its own reliance on oil revenues. Gone are the days when Saudi oil reserves were prudently managed for future generations. By no longer maintaining a specific oil-price band or retaining spare production capacity, the Kingdom is stepping away from its longstanding role as the market’s swing producer.

View attachment 616735
Insuring the Survival of Post-Pandemic Economies
ROMAN FRYDMAN & EDMUND S. PHELPS
The substantial increase in the scale and scope of government action needed to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic should be viewed as an unprecedented form of short-term systemic insurance. This approach requires not only vast government spending but also a temporary state-led reorganization of the entire economy.

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The change reflects Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) view that Saudi Arabia has a relatively narrow window of opportunity to monetize its large oil reserves. He has embarked on a policy of capturing market share rather than trying to set the price, once again breaking with longstanding policies that he believes are no longer useful.

If MBS persists with this strategy, he could significantly alter the dynamics of global energy markets. By keeping prices depressed, Saudi policy will not just drive more expensive forms of oil production out of the market; it will also make it harder for renewable energy to compete with fossil fuels – at least in the near term.

The new strategy became clear on March 7, a Saturday, when Saudi Arabia decided to cut its official selling price and increase its oil production to above ten million barrels per day, with output in April likely to be near 11 million, up from 9.7 million in recent months. When markets reopened the following Monday, oil prices suffered their largest single-day decline since 1991.

Officially, the Saudi action was a response to Russia’s refusal to agree to voluntary oil production cuts at an OPEC+ meeting on March 6. Since 2016, the Russians and the Saudis have been coordinating their production to keep prices elevated at around $50-$60 per barrel. Yet the net effect of this cooperation has been to help the US shale industry boost its own production and sales, thereby capturing most of the world’s incremental demand. Having suffered declining exports since 2016, the Saudis were probably hoping that a reduction in output would shore up prices at a time of weakening global demand, owing to the coronavirus outbreak.

Why the change of tack? Commentators have offered various explanations, including the intimation that Saudi Arabia might be colluding with Russia to undermine the US shale industry. But such collaboration is highly unlikely. There is little trust between MBS and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has not forgotten that Saudi Arabia’s oil-market machinations in the 1980s may have played a role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moreover, Saudi Arabia already tried and failed to take on the shale industry in 2014-2016, when it badly underestimated US shale producers’ technical competence and ability to operate at low prices.

Rather than pursuing a short-term tactical win, MBS may instead be focusing on several longer-term development goals. He knows that he has only limited time – perhaps just a couple of decades – to extract maximum value from oil, because climate change has fueled a global push toward de-carbonization and renewable energy. Saudi Arabia has well over 50 years’ worth of recoverable reserves; most of that will become a stranded asset if it is not produced more quickly.

Although the Kingdom will face serious technical and financial hurdles in pursuit of its new, highly ambitious production targets, the deeper point is that the old rules no longer apply. And under the new dispensation, the Saudis may also start running the state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco more like a profit-maximizing international company – producing as much as possible – rather than like the global oil market’s central bank.

There are strong arguments for why the Kingdom should pursue this path. For starters, Saudi oil is cheaper to extract and transport than many other reserves. It is also “cleaner” than that produced by Canada’s tar sands, and emits little methane compared to Russian oil. And Saudi Aramco is one of the world’s most technologically advanced and technically competent oil companies. In other words, Saudi oil has multiple comparative advantages over the competition, and therefore is perfectly placed to hold a privileged position in the global clean-energy transition.

Moreover, the Kingdom has been signaling its intended change in strategy for several months. In December 2019, it proceeded with the initial public offering of 1.5% of Saudi Aramco, which represents one way of monetizing the upfront value of its oil reserves, while also signaling the shift toward maximizing profit. After many years of disputes, the Saudis also have reached an agreement with Kuwait over oil production in the Neutral Zone, which will allow production to increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day. Lastly, Saudi Arabia recently announced plans to develop a massive unconventional gas field called Jafurah, which will make even more oil available for export.

The Kingdom’s policy shift should give pause to American politicians who boast that the United States has achieved energy independence through shale. In an all-out war for market share, US, Canadian, Russian, and other oil producers will have a hard time competing with the Gulf, given its lower costs and other competitive advantages.

The question, of course, is how long Saudi Arabia can maintain this strategy before the new low-price environment drains its own coffers. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that it can hold out for two years.

MBS may be gambling that he can outlast the competition. But given the structural features of the oil market and the world’s inevitable transition to renewables, he probably sees no other alternative. OPEC quotas and production agreements with the Russians have not delivered the results he needs. Whether the new policy can produce more tangible benefits remains to be seen.


https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...on-mbs-new-strategy-by-bernard-haykel-2020-03
 
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I have been reading about such predictions on pdf from past one decade... let's talk back in 15 years... i say prediction is wrong.
Only risks are Iranian terrorism in region and money laundering lead by Pakistani politicians.
Even if we trust for a moment the wishful majority at pdf. Saudis would come for the bailout of UAE.
I read somewhere, will try to dig up the article, UAE's SWF is $1.2tr while KSA is $825bn. On top of this you have gold reserves, T-bills and more.

Brother found the article:
Data showed that UAE-based sovereign wealth funds held over $1.21 trillion worth of assets in August 2019 compared to $825.76 billion by Saudi Arabia, $592 billion by Kuwait, $320 billion by Qatar and $22.14 billion by Kuwait.
March 18, 2020

Obviously these are not the only reserves a govt has, Gold, T-bills, emergency cash reserves etc are there as well.

Btw, Why does IMF talk so much crap? Most probably because of this vested interest moron:
Gita Gopinath is the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund.
 
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Well i will not debate to convince you or inform you... but will state here how i described Saudi Arabia when i first landed there... ''min USA'' in some industry size they are at par with world industrial giants like USA.
No point in banging your head against a wall, haters will remain blinded. Ignore him.
 
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Bloomberg columnist: Saudi Arabia faces ‘an unthinkable balance-of-payments crisis’
13:26, 24.03.2020
Region:World News
Theme: Economics
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For much of the world, oil wealth is a curse. Endowed with ample reserves of hydrocarbons, the likes of Nigeria, Angola, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Venezuela frittered the benefits away, wrote Bloomberg columnist David Fickling.

“The current price war in oil markets will only hasten the moment when the unsustainable nature of Gulf economies faces a brutal reckoning,” he said.

As an example, the author cited the situation with the financial assets of the Saudi Arabian government - the Central Bank's gold and currency reserves plus sovereign wealth funds minus government debts. “These declined to just 0.1% of gross domestic product from 50% over the four years through 2018 as crude plunged from levels of around $100 a barrel at the end of 2014. The kingdom is now likely to be a net debtor for the foreseeable future, even if prices rise back above $80,” he said.

According to the IMF, over the same four years, the net financial assets of the six Gulf monarchies declined by about half a trillion dollars, amounting to two trillion, Fickling said. “Even if peak oil demand doesn’t hit until 2040, that remaining sum could be depleted by 2034, according to the Fund. Oil at $20 a barrel would run it down even faster, emptying the coffers as soon as 2027,” he added.

The columnist added that, according to the IMF, if the oil price is in the range of $ 50 to $ 55, then the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Saudi Arabia will be reduced to about five months of import costs already in 2024. According to him, such an option is very alarming, “bringing the kingdom within months of an unthinkable balance-of-payments crisis and the abandonment of the dollar peg, which has underpinned the global oil trade for a generation.”



https://news.am/eng/news/567894.html
 
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Saudi-Russia oil war: Many losers, few winners
Rachel Ziemba
25 March 2020 12:43 UTC | Last update: 4 hours 1 min ago
Since the collapse in oil prices, the spread of coronavirus has ramped up pressure on the global economy



Since OPEC members and non-OPEC oil producers failed to reach an agreement in early March, kicking off a major oil price collapse, the fundamental outlook for oil and the global economy has continued to worsen.

The spread of Covid-19 throughout much of the world, and the public health imperative to “flatten the curve”, suggest that a rolling global recession is likely for 2020, fading later in the year.

This will bring with it weaker oil demand than during the financial crisis of 2008-09, along with significant pain and collateral damage for energy-producing countries and companies - including the architects of the oil price standoff, Russia and Saudi Arabia. It’s hard to see any winners.

Plunging prices
The standoff reflects disagreement over the scale of the demand drop - Russia was less pessimistic - and agreement that other countries should have to adjust, particularly medium- and high-cost producers, including unconventional fuel from the Americas and other non-OPEC producers.

Since then, oil has plunged below $25 a barrel - even lower than in 2008 - and Russia and Saudi Arabia are showing few signs of backing down.

To stabilise the market, significant production cuts will be required, along with some signs that Covid-19 infection rates are starting to peak, which is unlikely until April at the earliest. This could be accompanied by some increases in available storage capacity.

While oil prices this low are not sustainable, absent a supply adjustment, they could weaken further, sending energy-linked credit far into distress.





Typically, an oil price correction - especially one driven by excess supply - is good for consumers. They fill their tanks cheaply and can spend more money on other goods, while businesses can increase their margins.

Countries such as Turkey, South Africa, China and South Korea, as well as much of Europe, will indeed have a cheaper oil import bill, but the scale of global economic weakness, and in some cases local shutdowns, will limit the benefits.

The biggest losers are countries and companies that were high on the cost curve, and/or rely heavily on expensive crude oil to pay for government spending. Many of these entities were drawing down cash reserves. Companies with high costs include unconventional oil producers in the US and Canada.

Lower revenues and major job losses will hit non-oil investments and weaken local property markets. Some will survive, likely via consolidation with larger players and others by demanding massive cuts throughout the supply chain.

Global vulnerability
Countries that are most vulnerable include Iraq, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, Ecuador, Libya and Gabon. While many of these countries have low production costs, their national budgets require an oil price of more than $100 a barrel, according to IMF forecasts. They also lack meaningful foreign currency reserves to fill the gap. Some, including Ecuador, may be set for another debt default, and all may have little choice but to cut government spending.

Algeria, where reserves have been depleted to about $60bn, from a peak of $200bn in 2015, stands out as vulnerable. These cash shortages may exacerbate the political upheaval the country has been facing over the last year and make it more difficult to tackle their growing Covid-19 outbreak.

Algeria is but one of several countries where austerity may revive protests, as basic services remain weak or deteriorating.

These countries face at least three interlinked shocks beyond weak oil revenues: cuts to business and personal travel, local retail activity and the value of their foreign assets

Iran and Venezuela, under severe US sanctions, are similarly vulnerable. These countries will get even less for the small amounts of oil that they sell, and are more affected by border closures that hit non-oil sectors. Sanctions are also being tightened by the Trump administration, despite the humanitarian costs and the risks of exacerbating illness, which could undermine neighbours.

Sanctions most probably added to Iran’s Covid-19 vulnerability by increasing its reliance on China when borders were closing, and making it more difficult to import vital supplies - though global shortages suggest this would have been difficult, even if Iran had market access.

These trends, plus Tehran's typical lack of transparency, turned Iran into a hotspot that infected many of its regional neighbours, who imported cases that spread into clusters. The impact of the losses on its political stability remains uncertain; it may lead to more deadlock in the medium-term.

Weakened growth
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries in general have more cash on hand to meet the crisis than their poorer, less developed peers.

Their role in this oil war may modestly boost oil output and energy GDP, but revenues are likely to fall, forcing them to choose between budget cuts that hit growth, new debt or other asset sales that may be increasingly expensive, or drawing down foreign currency reserves.

The deepening of the Covid-19 crisis and local lockdowns will make this more costly.

These countries will face four interlinked shocks beyond weak oil revenues: cuts to global business and personal travel, local retail activity, decline in capital inflows and the value of their foreign assets. All of these put economic diversification efforts under challenge and put pressure on local governments.





Kuwait and Qatar look to be in the best shape and have somewhat more policy space, but will face a challenge to non-oil growth.

The UAE is already facing a challenge to its property market. This downturn has been weakening bank asset quality, further straining its non-oil growth. It does have plenty of liquid assets and scope for credit and fiscal stimulus, and perhaps some directed investment from government-related entities and sovereign development funds like Mubadala.

Bahrain and Oman stand out as the weakest links in the Gulf, having sizeable debt burdens and already large deficits. Expect regional support for Bahrain. Oman may be forced to liquidate some of its assets and face further credit downgrades.

Saudi Arabia has a difficult choice ahead. While the kingdom has sizeable foreign currency liquidity - more than $500bn - its debt and deficit is rising sharply, and the capital inflows needed to turbocharge its projects are nowhere to be found.

Off-balance-sheet spending from the Public Investment Fund will help, but some projects will likely be delayed, especially if the government holds true to its suggestion of cutting spending by five to 10 percent, something that would likely weaken the non-oil private sector.

In short, these shocks are likely to cut off the expansion in economic activity which was beginning at the start of the year. Imposing austerity would add to a negative feedback loop that would hurt global revenues.

Future outlook
Russia, too, shows some resilience. Sanctions-proofing its economy has helped to reduce its reliance on foreign capital, and it has built up fiscal and external buffers. Russia may not be thriving, but it is surviving, and is likely to continue to do so, a forthcoming local quarantine notwithstanding. It can draw down its assets, but big mega-projects will likely remain off the table.

The implications of this oil war - as with so many conflicts - will be borne for a long time to come

What could happen next? The US is reportedly putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to make adjustments, and some US politicians want to block energy imports and boost exports. Blocking imports of crude oil may not have much effect and could undermine potential future US export growth, but the economic pain from these policy choices is likely to bring Saudi Arabia, Russia and others back to the table in the second quarter of this year.

By the time that happens, though, the damage will have been significant, adding to global credit strains and the global recession. Will the cost have been worth it? Probably not, as the collateral damage has been high, and structural challenges to fossil fuel demand will remain.

The implications of this oil war - as with so many conflicts - will be borne for a long time to come.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/saudi-russia-oil-war-who-are-biggest-losers
 
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Dubai braces for financial hit as coronavirus batters vital tourism

Aziz El Yaakoubi, Davide Barbuscia
5 MIN READ


DUBAI (Reuters) - The sundecks on Dubai’s beaches lie empty, and red flags warn visitors away from the waterfront to protect the Middle East’s tourism hub against coronavirus.


Aerial view of the Sheikh Zayed Road, following the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 26, 2020. REUTERS/Satish Kumar
The infection is starting to deliver a painful blow to Dubai, one of the most visited cities globally, with some hotels closed and occupancy rates falling to less than 10% in others.

Hotels are working to protect remaining staff and guests, taking their temperature and giving them hand sanitizer. Restaurants have been reconfigured to space out dining tables.

But hotel workers worry this slowdown is only the start of something more damaging, and while authorities have said beaches and pools will be closed for just two weeks, officials have indicated those restrictions could be renewed.

The outbreak has also revived concerns about the emirate’s over-leveraged state coffers. Analysts and financial industry sources say it could force the state to seek a bailout similar to the one extended by oil-rich Abu Dhabi after a 2009 financial crisis.

“We expect difficult times to last for months, probably the whole of 2020,” a manager at one of Dubai’s most renowned hotels told Reuters on condition his establishment not be identified.


He was checking on a British family of three seated poolside, among the handful of guests still remaining at the 500-room establishment.

The hotel put 300 employees on unpaid leave and shut its pool bar and beach club, after the pandemic hit global travel and led the United Arab Emirates to close most public venues.

FLIGHTS HALTED
The hotel, which has reduced staffing to 20%, is among hundreds of similar establishments facing similar strains in Dubai, where tourism accounts for more than 11% of GDP and supports the retail, transport and construction sectors.

The World Travel & Tourism Council said Dubai was the third largest city in the world in attracting direct international tourism spending, with $28 billion in 2019. More than 16 million tourists visited the city last year, the government said.

State-owned Emirates airline, which posted 862 million dirhams ($234.70 million) in profits in the first half of 2019, halted passenger flights even before the UAE suspended all passenger flights, except evacuations trips, late on Tuesday.


“In a scenario where these measures (to combat the virus) last for around three to four months ... it would knock around 5-6% off of Dubai’s GDP,” said James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics.

He said Dubai is the most vulnerable Middle East economy to coronavirus travel curbs and state firms could be forced into a debt restructuring or seek help from UAE capital Abu Dhabi.

Dubai’s debt burden is at around $135 billion (125% of GDP), almost half due before end-2024, Capital Economics estimates.

Abu Dhabi last year rolled over for a second time a $10 billion loan made to Dubai in the global credit crisis, which saw Dubai’s real estate market crash.

HOTEL CLOSURES
Economic growth in Dubai had been sluggish due to lower oil prices and the property slump even before the outbreak.

Al Habtoor City, a group of three hotels in Dubai, said all guests were upgraded to Habtoor Palace and its other two hotels are now empty but “not shutting down completely”.


Slideshow (5 Images)
Hotel occupancy rates in the UAE, a federation of seven emirates, were down 28.2% year-on-year in the first week of March, while revenue per available room was down 43%, preliminary data from analytics specialist STR showed.

“I’m sure more help for the hospitality industry is coming. This would help us keep jobs,” said Fredrik Reinisch, a General Manager at Al Habtoor City, referring to stimulus packages announced by the Dubai government and the UAE central bank.

The spread of the disease is also putting at risk the EXPO 2020 world fair which Dubai is preparing to host from October, with a target of 20 million tourists.

“We can confirm that some of our properties in the Middle East have temporarily closed,” Marriott International said in a statement to Reuters.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ronavirus-batters-vital-tourism-idUSKBN21E1R0
 
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Saudi arabia has economical potential but if they want to have real benefit of those vast energy reserves they will need to transform themselves from ultraconservative society to society that is similar to israeli/turkish one
It means that political system also needs to be radically changed otherwise they will stay an oil-economy something that’s not sustainable forever we should keep in mind that they have young population with big fertility rate the budget will be even more overwhelmed in the future and as we see oil is losing gradually its relevance day by day
 
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@Ansu fati 10years for both the UAE and Saudi, Qatar will do fine because it heavily invested into Turkish factories,real estate and other sectors.

Coronavirus: Saudi Arabia struggles to find buyers for extra oil as demand dives
MEE and agencies
Published date: 27 March 2020 08:40 UTC | Last update: 1 day 1 hour ago
638Shares

Saudi Arabia is struggling to find customers for its extra oil as demand plummets due to the coronavirus and freight rates surge, industry sources said, undermining the kingdom’s bid to seize market share from rivals by expanding production.

Royal Dutch Shell and US refiners were taking less Saudi crude, Finland’s Neste was not taking any in April and Indian refiners had sought delayed deliveries, the sources told Reuters.

Polish refiners were also easing up on purchases, they added.




Saudi-Russia oil war: Many losers, few winners
Read More »


Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, has also decided against lifting more Saudi crude in April after freight rates surged, the sources said.

The world’s top oil exporter plans to boost exports sharply after the collapse this month of a three-year deal on cutting supply between Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia.

But with demand also tumbling because of global measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak, oil companies have been reducing refinery processing rates and are in no rush to buy extra Saudi barrels, the sources said.

Demand shock
Global oil demand is expected to fall by 20 percent in coming months, International Energy Agency President Fatih Birol said on Thursday.

Alongside fallout from the coronavirus, trade sources said higher freight costs were also taking a toll.

Saudi Arabia has said it is unable to provide freight rebates for shipments under default contract terms due to a jump in tanker rates, documents seen by Reuters showed.

The changes in supply terms were expected to lead to some cancellations of April cargoes as buyers were not expecting to carry the transport costs in full.

One source said oil companies were seeking to cut April allocations of Saudi crude by as much as 25 percent.

State-run Saudi Aramco declined to comment to Reuters.

Industry sources said Poland’s Lotos cut its nomination by one cargo and PKN Orlen was not taking anything above the regular term contract volume.

“We are closely observing the situation and depending on the dynamics of the oil market, we will analyse and make decisions on an ongoing basis," PKN said in a statement.

India lockdown
Saudi Arabia said this month it had directed Aramco to keep supplying crude at a record rate of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in coming months and export more than 10 million bpd from May.

Although exports are expected to rise in April, a sharp increase now appears less likely.




Coronavirus: Saudi economy teeters as oil prices continue to fall
Read More »


Some companies in India, which like many other countries around the globe is now under a lockdown due to the coronavirus, were seeking to delay purchases, sources said.

Two Indian state refiners that had bought extra barrels from Saudi had approached Aramco for delayed delivery, although Aramco had not said whether it would meet their demand, the sources said.

Oil refiners in the United States are also taking less Saudi crude in April, one source said, without naming the companies.

Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 are among the largest Saudi customers.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/...-struggles-find-buyers-extra-oil-demand-dives

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UAE Economy Crisis Exacerbated Due To Precautionary Measures Against Coronavirus
On Mar 26, 2020
The UAE’s economic crisis is gradually exacerbated, as stocks continued to decline amid selling waves on the part of investors, with successive measures taken by the state to combat the outbreak of the Coronavirus.

The authorities in the country decided to close the commercial malls, including the famous centers in Dubai, for two weeks, in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus after the death of two people.

The Ministry of Health and the National Authority for Emergencies and Crises in the Emirates said that it was decided to “close all commercial centers, shopping centers and open markets that include the sale of fish, vegetables and meat”, while excluding “cooperative societies, groceries, supermarkets” and pharmacies.

The decision shall be valid for a period of two weeks subject to review and evaluation, provided that it shall come into effect from Tuesday. It was also decided that restaurants will be restricted by not receiving customers and merely providing delivery services and home delivery.

And shopping centers, is one of the main arteries of life in the UAE cities, especially Dubai, which depends mainly on its resources for shopping and tourists, as it includes the “Dubai Mall” near the Burj Khalifa, which is one of the largest shopping centers in the world.

Dubai is heavily dependent on tourism, and about 16 million people visit it annually. The emirate, which plans to host the World Expo 2020, starting next October, aspired to receive 25 million visitors this year, while international financial institutions expected that the effects of the Coronavirus will have negative impacts on the exhibition and the number of its visitors.

Meanwhile, the UAE real estate company, Emaar, has stopped accepting reservations in other hotels in Dubai, in light of the outbreak of the new Coronavirus.

The company suspended reservations in three additional hotels in Dubai ten weeks from Sunday, in light of a collapse in demand due to the deadly coronavirus.

The hotel reservation site “Emaar”, which is one of the largest hotel operators in Dubai, shows the inability to reserve hotels in the address “The Dubai Mall”, “The Address Sky View” and “Palace Downtown”, from March 22 to May 31.

The Emirati company has stopped receiving reservations at a number of famous hotels it operates because of the decreased demand for it, due to the increasing spread of the Coronavirus.

A company document revealed that it will stop receiving reservations at three hotels in Dubai for more than five months, starting from March 15 to August 31.

The hotels where the company decided to stop reservations include: “Address Fountain Views” which is located in the popular downtown area of Dubai near the Burj Khalifa, the tallest tower in the world, and is one of the most recent “Emaar” hotels.

The reservations of the “Vida Creek Harbor” and “Vida Emirates Hills” hotels were also suspended, which would constitute expected significant financial losses as a result of these measures.

In the past few days, the UAE has taken precautionary measures, including stopping flights and suspending education in schools, for fear of spreading the virus that has caused the deaths of thousands around the world.

Last Saturday, the authorities decided to close their shores in the wake of hundreds of residents’ hesitation, despite calls to avoid social mixing to limit the spread of the virus.

UAE stocks fell in the beginning of trading today, topping the declines of the Gulf stock exchanges, as the general index of the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange fell by 3.1 per cent, and the Dubai Financial Market Index fell 1.59 per cent.

Yesterday, “Emirates Airlines”, one of the largest airlines that organize long-distance trips in the world, said that it will stop this week almost all passenger transport flights and reduce the salaries of its employees by half due to the decrease in the demand for travel due to the corona rampage.

On Sunday, the UAE shares suffered the largest losses in the Gulf, after the general index of Abu Dhabi market declined by 3.61%, and the Dubai Financial Market Index decreased by 2.05%.

Standard & Poor’s, the global credit rating agency, said in a report last February that Dubai’s hospitality sector was the most exposed to risk in the Gulf region.

The damage to tourism, aviation and shopping in the UAE is adding to the dilemma of the real estate sector, according to the international rating agency, which, in another report published last November, before the appearance of the Coronavirus, excluded that Expo 2020 would improve the “harsh” conditions in the real estate market. in Dubai.

A monitoring of official data issued by the Dubai Land Department said that real estate deals in Dubai are falling 41% on a monthly basis during January.

The total value of Dubai real estate purchase and mortgage deals was 16.7 billion dirhams ($4.55 billion) in January, compared to 28.3 billion dirhams (7.7 billion dollars) in December.

The damage caused by the spread of the Coronavirus increases the financial difficulties experienced by the Emirates due to the tumbling oil prices to about $30 a barrel, losing nearly 60 per cent since the beginning of the year 2020, in light of the raging production war between OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the other end.



https://emiratesleaks.com/en/uae-economy-crisis-exacerbated-due-precautionary-measures-coronavirus/
 
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Everything what @Glass is posting is based on opinion from renowned economists
The biggest problem with gcc countries is that they have made their people too much dependable on state support
One of the main reasons why Syria got a civil war was the economy situation
They had oil but over the last 20 years syrian population doubled and the oil wasn’t simply enough
assad family never tried to do some real industrial reforms and we all saw what happened later
In all gcc states we can see that most of the labor force is actually imported people from south asia while the domestic population is living luxury life
you can’t run a country like this forever
 
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Investment: Dubai risks a post-expo hangover By:Virginia Furness Published on:Wednesday, March 04, 2020 Expo 2020 showcases economic and business opportunities in Dubai. Bankers hope it will lead to a boom in areas such as SME lending and infrastructure investment, but worry that a short-term lift will not be enough to dispel broader concerns about the country’s economy.

Order IN ADDITION Lessons from Milan "The government just takes the money and there’s no one here to help us. After 2020, people may have to leave very quickly,” Abdul, a driver at a private car company in Dubai tells Euromoney. Abdul moved to Dubai from Sargodha, Pakistan in 2009 in hope of finding a better-paid job, but like many of his peers he is finding it tough to navigate Dubai’s economic slowdown. Despite falling property prices, Abdul’s rent has almost doubled in the last 10 years, while his costs of living are also going up. Work is plentiful at the moment, and he expects to be busy throughout the six-month run of Expo 2020, the international mega event on which the government of Dubai is pinning hopes for an economic revival. But our driver thinks once the expo is over, jobs will dry up and people will leave. Abdul’s concerns reflect those of many in Dubai who worry that the economic boost caused by the government’s vast expo-related expenditure and ambitious infrastructure programme will not be enough to cement Dubai’s transformation from a traditional to a future economy. It is just over 10 years since the real estate bubble burst in 2009, leaving buildings standing empty and cars abandoned as workers fled the emirate. Expo 2020 will showcase Dubai as a dynamic hub – a future-focused city with cutting-edge infrastructure, where sectors like architecture and aviation are thriving - Sanjive Khosla, Expo 2020 Today, oil prices remain closer to $50 a barrel than $100, property prices are cratering – although building continues seemingly unchecked – bank lending is low and UAE economic growth is estimated to have slumped to 1.7% in 2019. But Dubai has a very real opportunity to crystallize its plans for economic diversification, to cement its position as an investment destination and to accelerate growth in its all-important small and medium-sized enterprise sector. Expected to bring Dh122.6 billion ($33 billion) to the UAE’s economy between 2013 and 2031, Expo 2020 is big business for a city that has made its name building dreams in the desert. Splashed across billboards, flag carriers and central to the government’s 2020 budget, it is clear that the government sees the expo as an essential stimulus to its ailing economy. But the success of Expo 2020 will not be found in the estimated 25 million visitors, the numerous cultural events or corporate showcases, but in whether or not it can secure a meaningful long-term legacy that creates jobs and true economic diversification. Slowdown Peeling back the glossy layers of Dubai’s diversification story – and the constant development of evermore futuristic skyscrapers – the emirate is still struggling to deal with lower oil revenues and a broader slowdown in the global economy. Recent data shows that the non-oil private sector of the economy expanded in January at the slowest pace since the same month in 2016: IHS Markit’s Dubai PMI Index fell to 50.6 from 52.3 in December 2019. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion. IHS also says that companies reported in January the joint-fastest fall in job numbers in a decade, while business activity expectations slid to the joint-weakest for a year and a half. This suggests that firms expect little pickup in sales in the near future, according to David Owen, economist at the firm. The strain is also seen in the property sector. Damac, one of Dubai’s largest privately owned property developers, reported a $10 million net loss in 2019, a year after it realized net earnings of $313 million, amid concerns over a widespread slowdown in a sector that has seen property prices fall by around 30% from their peak five years ago. Several sources tell Euromoney they believe expats are leaving Dubai at the fastest pace seen since 2009. Foreign workers make up roughly 90% of the UAE’s population. Although analysts do not expect a return to the mass exodus seen in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis, a stronger dollar, value added tax and higher municipality taxes mean that the cost of living in Dubai is now less attractive to expats. Expo 2020 is a showcase of the Middle East’s potential, and we believe they are going to invest a huge amount to support the growth of the economy - Daniel Howlett, HSBC Recent bank mergers and consolidation among government-related entities have resulted in job losses, while the rising cost of living is making it less attractive for white-collar expats and their families. “The local economy is not growing at the rate that it was,” says Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB). “It feels like there is a net exit, but I think it is more that fewer are coming in because of the slowdown in global macro.” Low taxes and a glossy futuristic lifestyle were big draws for Dubai. But now the shine is even coming off the bling. One banker tells Euromoney he is now forced to buy his Breitling watches back in the UK. “The region has become more expensive,” he says. “It is now cheaper to buy gold and diamonds in the UK. Guys here are moving their families back to the UK.” The rising cost of living is also hitting blue-collar workers. The annual rent for driver Abdul’s home has risen from around Dh30,000 in 2008, to Dh50,000 now, while insurance for his car has risen from Dh1,000 a year to Dh6,400. Corporate activity is also slow, with banks hesitant to take on more risk in the face of the lacklustre economic outlook and geopolitical risk. “I’m not an economist, I just look at my deals and at a deal level; it is taking a lot longer to get things done,” says a partner in the financial services department of one international law firm. 'Nation branding' With their origins in the 1851 Great Exhibition in London, world expos have played an important role in communicating nations’ industrial innovations, acting as windows on the progress of human ingenuity. By the 20th century, world expos had evolved into important and elaborate vehicles for nation branding, according to a European Commission report on the Milan Expo 2015. The telephone, television, smartphone, IMAX movie theatres and even burgers, ketchup and ice cream cones, were all first unveiled to mass global audiences at previous world expos, Ballard tells Euromoney. “Humanity is at the cusp of the fourth industrial revolution,” he says. It is facing “a number of complex challenges.” Brought together under the theme ‘Connecting minds, creating the future,’ the expo will inspire participants to collaborate towards a better and more sustainable future for all, it is claimed. Sanjive Khosla, chief executive of Expo 2020, says: “Expo 2020 will showcase Dubai as a dynamic hub – a future-focused city with cutting-edge infrastructure, where sectors like architecture and aviation are thriving, creativity is booming and never-before-seen technology is opening up radical new possibilities for economic prosperity.” For a state looking to cement its identity – and its economic future – as a diversified centre of global business and innovation, the expo could not have come at a better time. It is clear that in the construction, property and restaurant sectors, oversupply means that business is bad and the reality is that people haven’t come to terms with that yet. But Dubai’s future economy offers plenty of opportunities. “In the technology and startups space, business is booming,” says Harry Amos, a consultant at Kestrel Global, an advisory company specializing in future-space technologies. “Dubai has a great pipeline of international companies trying to tap into the government accelerator ecosystem and innovation funding, which aims to solve challenges of the future and make Dubai the smartest and happiest city in the world. Expo 2020 is the event to help catalyze the innovation effort.” Ambitious Expo 2020 is set on a vast 438 hectare site located south of Dubai. It will be connected to the main city by a metro line and an additional network of roads. Around 192 countries are expected to take part, each paying for the construction of a temporary pavilion. “It is a massively ambitious project,” says Amir Ahmad, a partner in the financial industry group at Reed Smith in Dubai. “Part of the plan is to reshape the economy of the UAE, to bring people in with different skill sets, who will have a different take on the UAE. You hope that some of those businesses will stay and take the UAE as a base. That is the plan.” Dubai’s government has unveiled its largest ever budget to pay for the expo, and the higher spending will likely boost investor confidence independently of the expo. Government spending still remains the biggest driver of growth in the region, with expenditure still tied to the price of oil. Higher government spending in turn boosts confidence and unlocks other sources of capital. But the expo may provide the government with the opportunity to finally decouple from the constraints of global oil prices. “Now things are picking up again, governments are starting to spend,” says a senior banker in the region. “In many ways [growth] will be linked to the government’s confidence about the sources of their funding and liquidity.” The expo is expected to bring some 25 million visitors and 190 country participants, according to EY, and will stimulate Dubai’s tourism, hospitality, events and business services sectors. Daniel Howlett, HSBC “Expo 2020 is a showcase of the Middle East’s potential, and we believe they are going to invest a huge amount to support the growth of the economy,” says Daniel Howlett, head of HSBC’s commercial banking business for the Middle East, north Africa and Turkey. Estimates of the economic impact of the expo vary, but law firm Jones Day says the fair will generate approximately $23 billion (24.4% of Dubai’s current GDP) between the years 2015 and 2021. EY puts this at Dh122.6 billion between 2013 and 2031. Standard Chartered says the expo will boost GDP growth to 2.1% in 2020 and lift UAE non-oil growth to around 3%. Analysts at Capital Economics say that growth in the UAE slowed to 1.5% in 2019 but forecast it to be 2% in 2020. But can the expo deliver? Fourth industrial revolution Bankers say the expo is the necessary platform to help Dubai accelerate its diversification plans, boost the SME sector, increase lending and attract foreign direct investment, despite the drag of lower oil prices and a broader slowdown in global economic activity. “If history is anything to go by, since 1988, the Middle East has grown at 4%, set against the wider GDP of 2.4%, notwithstanding the volatility in oil,” says Howlett. “We really don’t see that changing.” An early adopter of the need for economic diversification, the UAE is on track to reduce the share of oil as a contributor to its economy to 20% by 2021, as outlined in its Vision 2021 transformation programme. Howlett says the expo will help the UAE “reach if not better” that goal. In its latest Article IV review, published in November 2019, the IMF notes that sustaining robust non-oil growth after Expo 2020 remains a key priority to ensure UAE does not sink further into recession. This, it says, will come from fostering the growth of the non-oil private sector, including SMEs, and that developing transparent, rules-based fiscal frameworks will support long-term sustainability. Dubai will use the expo to cement the emirate’s contribution to the fourth industrial revolution: technology, innovation, artificial intelligence and the future economy are all key focuses. The new economy in the MENA region is very exciting and offers significant upside opportunities for investors - Karim El Solh, Gulf Capital Dubai is already ranked number one in the world by foreign direct investment in future technology such as artificial intelligence and robotics. While FDI into the Middle East and north Africa region (MENA) is slowing because of geopolitical issues and weakening regional economies, it is picking up in tech and e-commerce, says Karim El Solh, chief executive of Gulf Capital. Global strategic buyers such as Uber, Amazon and Webjet have acquired regional champions and injected large sums. “The e-commerce scene is also very exciting, growing at over 25% CAGR [compound annual growth rate] annually,” he says. “The new economy in the MENA region is very exciting and offers significant upside opportunities for investors.” But some in the sector remain sceptical. “In 100 years, the Middle East will have no relevance,” one US-based tech entrepreneur tells Euromoney. “Investment will dry up. Silicon Valley doesn’t care about Dubai.” The expo is an important platform for SMEs, which are “first and foremost” a key element in the diversification story, according to FAB’s Ballard. SMEs account for 95% of all companies in Dubai and generate approximately 50% of the emirate’s GDP. They are forecast to contribute 60% of UAE GDP by 2021, as the country pursues its economic diversification and transformation agenda. To date, SMEs have won approximately Dh4.4 billion in contracts through Expo 2020, says chief executive Khosla. “With SMEs having won 55% of all contracts so far, Expo 2020 remains committed to its promise of diverting 20% of its total capital expenditure to the sector.” But one of the key questions is whether or not companies that attend and exhibit at the expo will stay, and whether this will lead to meaningful job creation. District 2020 Much of the expo's legacy will be centred on District 2020, a 5G-enabled residential community and business innovation hub that will utilize more than 80% of the structures built for it, says Khosla. He adds that several global corporates, including Accenture, DP World and Siemens, have already committed to set up offices in District 2020 once the expo finishes. The ‘expo dividend’ will be a result of the investment in constructing and hosting Expo 2020, he says, the money spent by those who visit and the businesses that will occupy District 2020. Sanjive Khosla, chief executive of Expo 2020 District 2020 will “exemplify a future UAE economy based on human potential,” says Khosla. It is another free economic zone – and Dubai has a good record on those. Kestrel’s Amos says: “At Dubai’s foundation are its international free zones established over the last three decades, which have been a huge success in attracting businesses from all over the world.” Since 1974, 32 free zones have been set up, each with a unique set of legislation, such as the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and the Jebel Ali Free Zone. The most recent, the Dubai Design District (d3), has been open for a year and is already thriving. “It’s a model that works and makes Dubai an easy place to do business,” says Amos. Long-term job creation remains a key concern though. As driver Abdul warns, expats are concerned that once the expo is over, jobs will dry up and they will be forced to return home. “After 2020, all the normal business people will leave, all the businesses we are depending on,” he says. “When the visitors finish, we will see what will happen.” FAB’s Ballad also argues that regardless of the best efforts of the government, the fate of the expo still rests on the state of the global economy. “Yes, we want tourists to come; and yes, a lot of people have been employed to build the infrastructure, but how many people will stay?” he asks. “If the global economy is fragile, then yes, many of the workers who came in to build the expo’s infrastructure may be looking for employment elsewhere. But if the global economy is feeling healthier, government expenditure will pick up.” Khosla says the event is building a large workforce skilled in construction, operations, leadership and marketing, which will “contribute significantly to the UAE’s knowledge economy and create value for years to come.” Eye’s April 2019 report estimated a Dh40 billion investment in expo-related infrastructure across Dubai’s economy will create approximately 50,000 jobs a year until 2031, across real estate, hospitality and business services. Banking Banks in the region are also suffering from the downturn in Dubai’s traditional industries. Lending to real estate makes up around 40% of local banks’ balance sheets, while stagnation in the government-related entities sector is constraining growth. The expo will largely be financed by the government and pavilion exhibitors; that is leading local and international banks to expect an uptick in activity. But data and deal flows show that banks are reluctant to lend. A Dubai-based lawyer at an international law firm says that new money is hard to come by and, rather than organizing new financings, his time is taken up by restructurings and by signing waivers for cash-strapped corporates. “The number of waivers we are signing for corporates that are not meeting certain obligations in a loan agreement have increased, which is not a key symptom of optimism,” he says drily. “We are in a downward cycle,” he says. “The government is trying tremendously hard to ease the pain for corporations by reducing the various charges, but we are in a difficult spot. We will get out of it because people usually do.” Indeed, recent data is not overly positive. The UAE central bank’s fourth-quarter 2019 Credit Sentiment Survey showed that while there is a “moderate increase” in appetite for business loans, there is a continuous tightening of credit standards. Expectations should be for bank lending to expand at a modest, sustainable rate, not to an exuberant level of new bank lending - Simon Ballard, First Abu Dhabi Bank It found that respondents (senior credit officers from all banks and financial institutions extending credit within the UAE) do expect an increase in credit appetite for business and personal loans in the first quarter of 2020 but say these will continue to be coupled with tightening credit standards, “suggesting the reduced willingness to extend loans” among those surveyed. Credit demand from SMEs – a key focus for the government – also fell in the fourth quarter, although an increase was seen among local government-related entities, conventional loans and large firms, the report said. Expo spending is expected to boost corporate and infrastructure project lending, as well as driving growth through commercial and transaction banking services. Amir Riad, global head of corporate finance and investment banking at Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, says the expo is a “major event which will stimulate further activity. “We anticipate a broad-based uptick in lending to meet the financing requirements of growth.” He notes that hosting the expo plays to Dubai’s strengths – trade services, tourism, real estate and infrastructure – and will help the UAE’s economy diversify more broadly. S&P Global agrees there will be an uptick in lending. It says it expects mid-single digit net lending expansion in 2020, supported by some of these projects. Although lending growth slowed slightly to 4.5% annualized in the first nine months of 2019, S&P expects a slight acceleration to between 5% and 6% in 2020. SMEs With SMEs a key focus for the expo and acting as the engine for future growth, banks are also looking to improve their offering. Many of the large international banks do not yet offer appropriate services to support smaller businesses. Minimum deposits, which are often prohibitively high for startups, are needed to open business accounts, while regional banks cater much better to smaller businesses. HSBC has hired staff to work on a new digital proposition as part of a broader push to improve access to funding for SMEs, says Martin Tricaud, chief executive MENA and Turkey at HSBC. “We want to go a bit deeper and develop the middle market and to selectively invest in the business banking segment, which we pulled back from after the [global financial] crisis.” HSBC began the re-launch of its business banking proposition in the UAE in the third quarter of last year, rolling it out to Egypt and Oman in the fourth quarter. The relationship-managed offering is designed for businesses generating between $15 million and $50 million annually. This comes alongside HSBC’s work with the UK on its Expo 2020 pavilion, says HSBC’s Howlett. He also believes the expo will leave a strong legacy and bring meaningful interest from international companies. “There are currently 100,000 people from the UK based in the UAE, and 5,000 companies,” says Howlett. “We believe we can grow our UK-UAE corridor business by 50% through the activities of the expo in a three- to five-year time frame.” He says the expo will help to “demystify” the Middle East and provide an opportunity for British companies to start trading with the region in a way they haven’t done before. “The UK has its own desire to drive a more diverse approach to trade post-Brexit,” he adds. Howlett says he also expects to see a general uptick in commercial banking activity – trade finance, cash management, credit and lending – as the expo supports growth. SME lending by banks remains limited however. Most rely on government-led schemes, corporate R&D funds or external investors for support. “SMEs offer maximum employment and maximum GDP contribution, but have the lowest access to credit,” says Asad Ahmed, a managing director at Alvarez & Marsal in Dubai. “Banks have tried to lend to SMEs, but the outcome has been varied. In some cases, the high default rate has weakened appetite.” Simon Ballard, First Abu Dhabi Bank Overall, Dubai’s banking sector is in fairly good shape, says FAB’s Ballard. Early consolidation has taken out a few of the smaller players, although there is still more of that to come, he says. While non-performing loans of around 5.6% may look high versus European figures, on a regional basis they have improved from between 7.5% and 8%. “The expo, coinciding with a stabilization in global growth should support and encourage continued bank lending,” says Ballard. “But expectations should be for bank lending to expand at a modest, sustainable rate, not to an exuberant level of new bank lending, given the still underlying fragility of the global economy.” Infrastructure spending Another important area for growth is in infrastructure spending. Much hope for the expo is related to its legacy in both innovation and infrastructure. EY estimates that some Dh40.1 billion would be invested in infrastructure and other assets with “most likely to be retained for future use.” Infrastructure spending will be a driver of growth in the region, according to HSBC. The region’s $2 trillion infrastructure spending plans dwarfs China’s planned $850 billion for its Belt and Road Initiative. “There is something quite transformative here in the Middle East as these economies grow and diversify, and the expo serves as a platform for that,” says Howlett. Dubai intends the expo site to be transitioned to District 2020, with over 80% of it to be retained, according to EY. Successful management of the legacy period should bring in gross value added of Dh62.2 billion. In addition, the expansion of the Dubai metro and road links to the expo site, will improve accessibility to the airport as well as to the rest of the city. Elyas Algaseer, co-head of the DIFC branch and head of corporate banking MENA at MUFG, says he expects the increase in infrastructure spending to support credit growth via a rise in borrowing activity in the construction sector. While he believes the expo will promote economic growth, support greater productivity and enhance investor confidence, Algaseer warns the region’s infrastructure spending is not immune to global growth headwinds and that governments will continue to be selective. “In a more challenging environment, attention will turn to the quality and efficiency of project spending, with regional authorities likely to target capex spending that will generate only the most optimal value,” he says. Infrastructure spend in the Gulf Cooperation Council area is estimated to total $1.6 trillion between 2019 and 2023, an increase of roughly 2.7 times from 2014 to 2018 levels, based on data compiled by the Middle East Economic Digest. While Expo 2020 organizers say the site will be ready to open on October 20, the development of expo-related projects has not been without its challenges. Expansion work on the Al Maktoum International Airport was suspended last year. It has yet to resume. The airport opened for cargo in June 2010 and passengers in October 2013. Slated as the world’s largest global gateway with capacity for more than 160 million passengers per year, it is also expected to serve as a logistics hub for 12 million tonnes of freight, according to Dubai Airports. A Dubai Airports spokesperson says the group is currently “reviewing its long-term master plan to ensure infrastructure development takes full advantage of emerging technologies… and optimizes investment to grow its already significant contributions to Dubai’s economy. The exact time lines and details of next steps are not as yet finalized.” There is no doubt that Expo 2020 could act as a real catalyst for change for Dubai – it will result in important innovations in technology that will help the city adapt and grow. But the region cannot yet shake-off its reliance on oil receipts, nor on its need for foreign direct investment, which remains closely linked to investor perceptions of geopolitical risk. In addition, Dubai and the broader UAE’s position as a gateway on the East-West global corridor means it remains as exposed as anywhere to the fate of the global economy. Expo 2020 won’t solve the issues of high indebtedness or correct the property sector, but it might just prove that Dubai has more to offer than energy companies and skyscrapers. The government needs to work hard to convince the global economy, as well as residents like Abdul. Lessons from Milan The Milan Expo in 2015 aimed to examine and find shared solutions for global food and sustainability challenges. It attracted 21.5 million visitors, although 75% of these came from Italy, according to an evaluation report published by the European Commission. The report concluded that it had been more difficult than expected to reach people from other member states and elsewhere. The expo was also not without controversy. Violent protests marred the start of the opening ceremony. Campaigners, who saw it as a symbol of waste and corruption, clashed with police. The event was also hit by a corruption investigation, which saw several officials arrested, as well as by cost overruns and construction holdups. The expo got off to a slow start, which the EC attributes to negative publicity due to construction delays and corruption scandals The site itself is still under development by owner AR Expo, which is working to transform it into a science and technology centre. It is hard to find much retrospective data that gives a good indication of the success or failure of the project, but in 2015 alone it added value of the event amounted to €4.1 billion, equivalent to 0.25% of Italy’s total GDP for the year, according to the EC report. The SDA Bocconi School of Management said the event would bring an added value of €13.9 billion between 2012 and 2020. It added that linked activities between 2012 and 2020 would drive an increase in production in Italy by €31.6 billion, equal to 1% of national production.

Full article: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b...risks-a-post-expo-hangover?copyrightInfo=true

long but interesting
 
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The battle for last shares...

Saudi Arabia rebukes Russia over comments on OPEC+ deal
BY ASSOCIATED PRESS
ISTANBUL ENERGY
APR 04, 2020 9:34 AM GMT+3

This Oct. 9, 2018, file photo shows an oil rig and pump jack in Midland, Texas. (Odessa American via AP)



Saudi Arabia sharply criticized Russia on Saturday over what it described as Moscow blaming the kingdom for the collapse in global energy prices, showing the tensions ahead of an emergency meeting of OPEC and other oil producers.

Oil prices sharply fell after the so-called OPEC+ group of countries including Russia failed to agree to production cuts in early March. A price war began soon after, with Saudi Arabia threatening to pump at a record-breaking pace to seize back market share even as the coronavirus pandemic saw demand sharply drop as airlines worldwide halted flights.

International benchmark Brent crude fell to around $24 a barrel, compared to prices of over $70 a year ago. Prices slightly have rebounded with President Donald Trump tweeting and talking about the need for a production cut, but rancor between Saudi Arabia and Russia could imperil a deal emerging from a planned teleconference Monday.

That anger could be seen early Saturday in two critical statements released by the kingdom's state-run Saudi Press Agency. The first came from Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan under the headline: “ Statements Attributed to One of Russian President’s Media Are Completely Devoid of Truth.”

“Russia was the one that refused the agreement, while the kingdom and 22 other countries were trying to persuade Russia to make further cuts and extend the agreement,” the prince said.





He also said an alleged Russian contention that “the kingdom was planning to get rid of shale oil producers” was false as well. U.S. shale producers have made America one of the world's top producers, but they've been hurt badly by the price collapse. Trump has met with concerned producers about that.

Prince Faisal did not identify the story, nor the outlet he was critiquing.

A second statement came from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, one of King Salman's sons. The prince criticized Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak by name for suggesting Saudi Arabia wanted to cut out shale producers.

The prince “expressed his surprise at the attempts to bring Saudi Arabia into hostilities against the shale oil industry, which is completely false as our Russian friends recognize well,” the statement said.

Saudi Arabia's statements likely seek to defuse any possible confrontation between the kingdom and Trump, who tweeted Thursday that Moscow and Riyadh “will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels” without elaborating. Trump's tweets and public comments have affected oil prices in the past.


https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-rebukes-russia-over-comments-on-opec-deal
 
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