The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 15th (local time) that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are unlikely to enter the war immediately even if China invades Taiwan. U.S. and Japanese military officials have debated the role of the two countries in a hypothetical war situation over Taiwan for more than a year, but the U.S. has not received a firm answer on Japan's plans to participate. According to the WSJ, the United States asked Japan to help find Chinese submarines in waters near Taiwan in the event of an emergency, but Japan is delaying a concrete response.
The WSJ, citing an inside source, said, "This plan is one of America's major plans to respond to China's demonstration of force threatening Taiwan." Japan is the closest country to Taiwan, 113 kilometers away, and 54,000 US troops are stationed in Okinawa. From the standpoint of the United States, Japan's military support is essential. However, the WSJ said, "In the event that Japan becomes embroiled in the Taiwan conflict, we are most concerned about being attacked on the mainland by China's allies Russia and North Korea, and in the worst-case scenario, being subjected to a nuclear attack." It should be quite difficult to get them to participate in the war." As Japan is the only country historically to have actually suffered a nuclear attack, it cannot help but be sensitive to this issue. Public opinion in Japan also strongly opposes being involved in conflicts with neighboring countries. For this reason, Japanese leaders have avoided as much as possible any mention of Japan's role in disputes involving Taiwan. Satoshi Mori, a professor at Keio University, told the WSJ, "If I were to ask whether they would risk their lives to protect Taiwan, I think 90% of Japanese people would answer 'no.'" A hypothetical simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank earlier this year suggested that the United States could deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan if it had the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.
Google translate from this article by Korean media: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/0c49ab923e6c773a37e69542d601018b73718ecaIf China attacks Japan, which is physically closest to the US military base, causing a "Taiwan version of Pearl Harbor" incident, and if Japan enters the war due to this, Japanese high-performance submarines will prevent Chinese forces from landing on Taiwan. This is a possible scenario. However, this is because China has US military bases in Japan. This assumes the case of attacking . The US is demanding a more active role from Japan, the WSJ reported. A source familiar with the Japan-U.S. internal meeting told the WSJ, "At related meetings, the United States and Japan are discussing specific issues such as supply routes, missile launch sites, and refugee evacuation plans." However, Japan is said to be emphasizing that logistical support is possible. In 2021, then-Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso warned that a war over Taiwan would endanger Japan's survival. Rui Matsukawa, a member of the House of Councilors who served as parliamentary vice minister of defense, also said, "In many cases, if possible, Japan will fight together." However, in response to China's recent military buildup, Japan is increasing its defense investments, such as securing long-range cruise missiles. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said during a recent visit to Okinawa that he would "increase military deterrence to reduce the chance of being attacked." As an extension of that, the Japanese government plans to increase defense spending by about 60% over the next five years to reach 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of last year. Japan externally emphasizes this as a "defense level." In 2015, when Abe was in office, Japan amended the Security Law to stipulate the right of collective self-defense, which allows the Self-Defense Forces to intervene in the event of an emergency in another country. Therefore, we will increase military deterrence,” he said. As an extension of that, the Japanese government plans to increase defense spending by about 60% over the next five years to reach 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of last year. Japan externally emphasizes this as a "defense level." In 2015, when Abe was in office, Japan amended the Security Law to stipulate the right of collective self-defense, which allows the Self-Defense Forces to intervene in the event of an emergency in another country. Therefore, we will increase military deterrence,” he said. As an extension of that, the Japanese government plans to increase defense spending by about 60% over the next five years to reach 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of last year. Japan externally emphasizes this as a "defense level." In 2015, when Abe was in office, Japan amended the Security Law to stipulate the right of collective self-defense, which allows the Self-Defense Forces to intervene in the event of an emergency in another country.
Original WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/would-allies-fight-with-u-s-for-taiwan-japan-is-wary-d90dd924?page=1
If this is true, it means that the Taiwan emergency is bullshit and the japanese are just using the reason to rebuild their military while NOT committing to Taiwan's defense.
Kishida's 4D chess/shogi?
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