Global Wars and Peace: Insanity against Humanity: What is Next?

[The Sandman]

FTFY

@VCheng @Joe Shearer @Signalian @Zibago @Hell hound @Gibbs @Atlas @The Sandman @Oscar @Chinese-Dragon @GeraltofRivia @anant_s

You just nailed it!!

 

[Cookie Monster]

You have to have governments and political parties. Otherwise how you going to “elect” government ? Or you think concept of kings and queens should be revived ?

Btw i think governments have to exist because you need a systematic approach to solve issues. Consider this, a society that do not have a form of government. Every person in that society will work in his domain only. I.e; take the example of Munciple issues. Everyone will clean his house but who will clean the streets that belong to everyone still no one own it ? Well, that society will “select/elect” a person to handle such issues. And hence the concept of government (is basic form) emerge. Governments and nationalism do create problems but it solve ten times of problems than it creats. Nationalism also create a sensen of competition. Competition make you move. And as we say in urdu “Harkat me barkat hy”. So government and nationalism is “necessary”. Good or bad is another topic for discussion. Now the form of government that should be implemented , we can argue about that. As each form of government have its own pros and cons. I would like to discuss more about this with you. But after Jan 23.

The concept u r touching on here is roughly similar to the "social contract". Social Contract dictates that we(humans) give up some of our freedoms to have order(safety/protection/etc).

In a theoretical world with no governments or government institutions, it would basically boil down to "might is right". If caveman A likes a cavewoman X, he can just go grab her and force her to be his wife
...caveman B who is stronger than caveman A, can kill caveman A and take over his cave, belongings, and his wife. Caveman B as well, though he may be the strongest of the bunch won't always be there to protect his family/house/etc. If he is out on a hunt, even a weaker caveman C can take over his belongings...and so on. Just a lawless chaotic world with ppl doing whatever they want.

So to remedy this problem, humans limit this "total freedom" and instead of doing whatever they please...they all agree(in a broader sense) to play by the rules. In order to deter those who will break the rules, punishments are handed out by the rest of the society that does play by the rules. This has given rise to things like tribes and tribal leaders, to monarchy and all the way to the modern day forms of government. Ever since ancient times, since the advent of civilization itself some form of structure has existed...for without it, there would be utter chaos.

Though sructure/system brings with itself a whole new set of its own problems bcuz at the end of the day, this system is also run by humans...
...and therefore it is as good or as bad as the humans running it.

 

[Zibago]

FTFY

@VCheng @Joe Shearer @Signalian @Zibago @Hell hound @Gibbs @Atlas @The Sandman @Oscar @Chinese-Dragon @GeraltofRivia @anant_s

Wars and conflict will exist till people exist but if we compare today with the world of the past conflictshave certainly got less deadly and frequent
The next sharp drop in conflicts will occur when labor automatiin takes place

 

[RealNapster]

The concept u r touching on here is roughly similar to the "social contract". Social Contract dictates that we(humans) give up some of our freedoms to have order(safety/protection/etc).

In a theoretical world with no governments or government institutions, it would basically boil down to "might is right". If caveman A likes a cavewoman X, he can just go grab her and force her to be his wife
...caveman B who is stronger than caveman A, can kill caveman A and take over his cave, belongings, and his wife. Caveman B as well, though he may be the strongest of the bunch won't always be there to protect his family/house/etc. If he is out on a hunt, even a weaker caveman C can take over his belongings...and so on. Just a lawless chaotic world with ppl doing whatever they want.

So to remedy this problem, humans limit this "total freedom" and instead of doing whatever they please...they all agree(in a broader sense) to play by the rules. In order to deter those who will break the rules, punishments are handed out by the rest of the society that does play by the rules. This has given rise to things like tribes and tribal leaders, to monarchy and all the way to the modern day forms of government. Ever since ancient times, since the advent of civilization itself some form of structure has existed...for without it, there would be utter chaos.

Though sructure/system brings with itself a whole new set of its own problems bcuz at the end of the day, this system is also run by humans...
...and therefore it is as good or as bad as the humans running it.

@jamahir

 

[I.R.A]

we compare today with the world of the past conflictshave certainly got less deadly and frequent

Less deadly? In what sense? The past warriors weren't destroying ozone by the way.

The next sharp drop in conflicts will occur when labor automatiin takes place

That is some conclusion. Civil war

 

[Cookie Monster]

The next sharp drop in conflicts will occur when labor automatiin takes place

Actually when full automation(or close to full) takes place...it might push a lot of nations towards a civil war/chaotic uprisings.

Automation is already taking place...and picking up pace fast. Within the next decade or so, self driving technology will be perfected enough where it will either match or be better than the crash rate of humans. This will threaten the jobs of millions of taxi drivers(and Uber/Lyft/etc.). Amazon is also planning on having robots be the workforce for its warehouses while also opening "smart stores" that don't require cashiers. First it will be the more physical jobs to go. Once the AI catches up to a good enough level, jobs that are less physical and require more mental capacity...like teaching for example, can be threatened. An AI teacher can adapt according to the needs of each student, the same "teacher" can teach Spanish/Math/History/etc.

Once the robotics/AI and general automation catches up to a level where it can take over for a human...it WILL take over for a human bcuz for many businesses it will be a cheaper option. U don't have to pay that machine, u don't have to provide health insurance coverage, and u don't have to worry about that machine calling in sick or making human errors. The machine/automaton will be efficient/reliable/replaceable and it won't unionize nor go on strikes.

This means a whole lot of humans out of a job. If by that time governments have not adapted to this and figured out a method to implement successfully a Universal Basic Income(they tried it recently in some Nordic country if I remember correctly), it would mean an uprising/revolution...something along the lines of Russian revolution(or French Revolution, Chinese communist revolution, and many such examples)

 

[Nilgiri]

This means a whole lot of humans out of a job.

The fear is somewhat overstated given the number of jobs that open up and are created by automation. Humans always find a way to do something with their time that other humans want to pay for. Just look at youtube for example..its kinda crazy.

 

[Cookie Monster]

The fear is somewhat overstated given the number of jobs that open up and are created by automation. Humans always find a way to do something with their time that other humans want to pay for. Just look at youtube for example..its kinda crazy.

Right technically speaking if automation is done right, it will only mean more leisure time for humans...where everything from farming to research(a bit far fetched but theoretically possible) is done by robots while humans just reap the benefits. It's like being on top of the food chain with robots being our servants and doing everything for us...that's ONLY if it's done right...but I can see sooo many more ways where it can go wrong.

One of those ways is the unpreparedness of a government. If a government doesn't anticipate it on time and a large portion of the workforce finds itself jobless, all of a sudden it will create a burden on the system and the government will be playing catch up.

Let's take for example taxi drivers(bcuz this is going to happen in the very near future), once self driving cars supplant them and they find themselves jobless(bcuz of a lack of education/vocational training)...what do u think their reaction is going to be?
1) Rational: where they think it through and go back to school or get vocational training to switch careers...while the government also helps provide financial aid to these thousands of taxi drivers to get an education/vocational training.
2) Irrational: they get angry at Uber/Lyft/Taxi companies for purchasing/running fleets of automated cars...unionize/protest...get angry at the government for not doing enough, etc.

So while u r correct...technically if there are a whole lot of programmable robots out there...that would mean that many more jobs for software engineers/mechanical engineers/electrical engineers/material scientists/mechanics/etc...but none of that can happen overnight. It would take much much longer to take these thousands of taxi drivers and train/educate them to be any of those above...while the technological changes that are going to supplant humans are happening at a much faster rate.

 

[Nilgiri]

It would take much much longer to take these thousands of taxi drivers and train/educate them to be any of those above...while the technological changes that are going to supplant humans are happening at a much faster rate.

It depends. There is lot of scope for stuff in interim that is simply soft skill stuff that AI cannot do as good....that will help blow it over I feel. Over time the hardskills of new sectors will also open up like you said. Basically as long as the govt does not over intervene and creates appropriate tax holidays etc for social media/internet kind of jobs and also access to information/training regarding that stuff (especially human oriented marketing, there is huge scope there given product competition that will heat up with automation given the much higher consumer focus AND much higher pricepoint competition that automation would do, given margins are more standardised worldwide)....I feel there shouldn't be too much of an issue.

I guess lets see. Its just I saw just how pessimistic the projections have been before in previous tech revolutions. If the govt does not get too big and domineering (which is part of the whole scare tactic of automation = no jobs... towards the electorate to vote for that forking over for "greater good")...there should not be too big of an issue, because people and free enterprise always finds a way whatever the iteration of production/consumption....given underlying demand is an evolving thing...one part gets displaced, the water simply rises and you just need to re adjust.

People will also quickly realise which countries do it better and more adaptive/flexible (in this day and age of interconnected networks)...and demand the same in theirs...and that should help drive the better combinations and good competition on it.

 

[Cookie Monster]

It depends. There is lot of scope for stuff in interim that is simply soft skill stuff that AI cannot do as good....that will help blow it over I feel. Over time the hardskills of new sectors will also open up like you said. Basically as long as the govt does not over intervene and creates appropriate tax holidays etc for social media/internet kind of jobs and also access to information/training regarding that stuff (especially human oriented marketing, there is huge scope there given product competition that will heat up with automation given the much higher consumer focus AND much higher pricepoint competition that automation would do, given margins are more standardised worldwide)....I feel there shouldn't be too much of an issue.

I guess lets see. Its just I saw just how pessimistic the projections have been before in previous tech revolutions. If the govt does not get too big and domineering (which is part of the whole scare tactic of automation = no jobs... towards the electorate to vote for that forking over for "greater good")...there should not be too big of an issue, because people and free enterprise always finds a way whatever the iteration of production/consumption....given underlying demand is an evolving thing...one part gets displaced, the water simply rises and you just need to re adjust.

People will also quickly realise which countries do it better and more adaptive/flexible (in this day and age of interconnected networks)...and demand the same in theirs...and that should help drive the better combinations and good competition on it.

Certainly there are possiblities that it will be fine and not cause problems but that's entirely dependent on how governments and the ppl handle it. The uncertainty is due to the fast pace of technological progress that seems exponential. Just compare the self driving cars of today to cars of the year 2000...and u will see how far we have come in a relatively short time...imagine where this progress would be in the next 20 years...that's just 40 years. The next factor is the scope of it. It not only threatens taxi drivers, but also other public transport(bus drivers) and even truck drivers. That's one technology with such a large scope that it will effect many different sectors. Another example would be call centers. Google just recently demonstrated an advanced iteration of its google assistant. Not only did it sound identical to a human's voice but it was also able to converse with ppl who had thick accents. This is only going to improve further. That's again just one technology with broad scope. When u call ur bank or ur cable company or any other business that relies on having employees to answer calls...all of those jobs(or a major chunk of them) would just vanish. It's the ever accelerating pace of technological progress and its broadening scope that's got ppl on edge.

Ppl need to realize this upcoming increasing role of automation and prepare their next generations now. Governments too need to be on top of it...there are a couple of European countries already experimenting with the concept of UBI. I only foresee problems for the ppl and the governments that will be caught unprepared.

 

[Gibbs]

FTFY

@VCheng @Joe Shearer @Signalian @Zibago @Hell hound @Gibbs @Atlas @The Sandman @Oscar @Chinese-Dragon @GeraltofRivia @anant_s

I'd add another important cog in to that list.. The industry of organized religion but yeah all those aspects are created by humans for humans to control over each other

 

[jamahir]

FTFY

I think you are correct. Even when we will have colonies on Mars and the asteroids ( which we will ), we will have wars. Crimes also will exist, though in societies which have less religion and are not money-based and are more scientific, the crimes will be lesser.

@Gibbs

 

[jamahir]

Certainly there are possiblities that it will be fine and not cause problems but that's entirely dependent on how governments and the ppl handle it. The uncertainty is due to the fast pace of technological progress that seems exponential. Just compare the self driving cars of today to cars of the year 2000...and u will see how far we have come in a relatively short time...imagine where this progress would be in the next 20 years...that's just 40 years. The next factor is the scope of it. It not only threatens taxi drivers, but also other public transport(bus drivers) and even truck drivers. That's one technology with such a large scope that it will effect many different sectors. Another example would be call centers. Google just recently demonstrated an advanced iteration of its google assistant. Not only did it sound identical to a human's voice but it was also able to converse with ppl who had thick accents. This is only going to improve further. That's again just one technology with broad scope. When u call ur bank or ur cable company or any other business that relies on having employees to answer calls...all of those jobs(or a major chunk of them) would just vanish. It's the ever accelerating pace of technological progress and its broadening scope that's got ppl on edge.

Ppl need to realize this upcoming increasing role of automation and prepare their next generations now. Governments too need to be on top of it...there are a couple of European countries already experimenting with the concept of UBI. I only foresee problems for the ppl and the governments that will be caught unprepared.

@jamahir

I did not mean a society without any structure. Without a structure will of course result in an anarchic society.

I just meant a society without like how almost all countries have existed : presidents, prime ministers, "Representative democracy".

What I wanted to point out is there is an alternative to representative democracy, and that being "Direct democracy". I expect @Nilgiri to but this form of government is the true way towards one of the intended goals of communism : "When people rule themselves" .

I agree that wars may exist because there may be factions even when all will generally follow the same broad political arrangement of society.

I will write more on direct democracy after 23rd when @RealNapster is ready.

 

[RealNapster]

I did not mean a society without any structure. Without a structure will of course result in an anarchic society.

I just meant a society without like how almost all countries have existed : presidents, prime ministers, "Representative democracy".

What I wanted to point out is there is an alternative to representative democracy, and that being "Direct democracy". I expect @Nilgiri to but this form of government is the true way towards one of the intended goal of communism : "When people rule themselves" .

I agree that wars may exist because there may be factions even when all will generally follow the same broad political arrangement of society.

I will write more on direct democracy after 23rd when @RealNapster is ready.

Bro i am open to read just can not think too much (as the thoughts are somewhere else). Do write about your analysis of direct democracy. I will be glad to read about your thoughts on this subject. Only, you will have to wait for my detailed reply

Btw in my previous post i asked you about your “alternative” for current form of government, and later built a case for government and nationalism. It was not meant to prove you wrong.

 

[jamahir]

Btw in my previous post i asked you about your “alternative” for current form of government, and later built a case for government and nationalism. It was not meant to prove you wrong.

No offense taken.

Though I too want to discuss after the 23rd.

Amazon is also planning on having robots be the workforce for its warehouses while also opening "smart stores" that don't require cashiers

I want to address one thing here.

Amazon is testing smart delivery quadcopter drones and trying to get government license. But there are obvious concerns here :

1 .Privacy ( path of the drone's overflight ).
2. Safety ( drone crashes ).
3. Security ( a weapon-carrying drone masquerading as a goods delivery drone ).