Geo-economics of the Istanbul Canal

[xenon54 out]

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Trojan war was fought for this strait. But it's hard to see a modern war for this strait. Back then there were kings and emperors. Now America has election like once a frigging year. And Russia ain't no pushover either. A war with Russia dooms any election chance in the US.

 

[Deliorman]

A total waste of money and resources on a project where a bunch of people in the Government and around them will steal more billions from the pockets of the tax payers. More and more money burried in concrete and offshore bank accounts and companies.

Nobody will pay a fee for a canal that is not much shorter than the Bosphorus- a strait that can be used for absolutely no charge for every ship which wants to use it but who cares... certainly not most of the people in Turkey.

 

[xenon54 out]

A total waste of money and resources on a project where a bunch of people in the Government and around them will steal more billions from the pockets of the tax payers. More and more money burried in concrete and offshore bank accounts and companies.

Nobody will pay a fee for a canal that is not much shorter than the Bosphorus- a strait that can be used for absolutely no charge for every ship which wants to use it but who cares... certainly not most of the people in Turkey.

Well one plus point will be even if its isnt much shorter you wont need to do many maneuvers (even at some points sharp 90°s) when crossing it, the problem with bosphorus is it isnt straight and maneuvering with big ships in a narrow canal is always a problem hence so many accidents throught the history.

This happened only 3 months ago.

Much worse happened with a tanker already.

 

[azyr]

A total waste of money and resources on a project where a bunch of people in the Government and around them will steal more billions from the pockets of the tax payers. More and more money burried in concrete and offshore bank accounts and companies.

Nobody will pay a fee for a canal that is not much shorter than the Bosphorus- a strait that can be used for absolutely no charge for every ship which wants to use it but who cares... certainly not most of the people in Turkey.

While I generally agree that the plan in this state doesn't make much sense there are important implications :

• First of all the Bosphorus straits can't be blocked - but they can be heavily regulated citing "safety" concerns (which, TBH is a legit concern) and slow down the passage to say "5 ships per day" ? That would mean paying to cross or waiting idly at the entrances. So yes, you can actually force ships to use the other canal. How much money this will generate is dubious ofc - I don't believe it will be significant enough to cover the costs.
• But then there's the logistic base being built. The canal's north edge will feature a huge maritime port that will be very close to the worlds biggest and busiest airport (the new Airport being constructed there). There will also be another port on the south edge with similar capabilities. They're trying to capitalize on China's new silk road along with other trade routes. I think railroad between the two ends might be a better and safer way to achieve this - but this idea still holds merit and it will generate some revenue and trade.
• Lastly (and i think this is the main reason for the canal) is it's military strategic value. Today Turkey holds a few key cards for dealing with the US. Mainly Incirlik airbase and Kürecik radar. A canal could grant Turkey major leverage in itself. Turkey could say "alright, all military ships granted access to the Black Sea via this canal can stay indefinitely until I say so otherwise". The US would jump at this chance as it puts her in very close proximity of Russia's strategic points - and Turkey would have another card to hold against the US if it wants something. This last point is sort of discussed in the video as well.

So yea, the first two points are maybe "so-so" reasons to undergo this project, I don't believe financially they'll outweigh the cost. But the last point does have merit.

 

[xenon54 out]

Regarding the waiting time to pass Bosphorus its already regulated and the maximum amount of ships to pass throught is already reached, anyone flying to Atatürk airport approaching from Marmara sea will see the huge amounts of ships wating to pass bosphorus.
The potential for the new canal is definately there.

See marine traffic radar:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:29.3/centery:40.8/zoom:10

Yup the pictures below are indeed ships waiting in marmara to pass bosphorus and the amount seen from plane is way more than these pictures capture.

 

[Kamil_baku]

WHen will the project start and finish?

 

[newb3e]

10 bil for such a huge project? is the figure correct?