‘GDP to be rebased by the end of 2018,’ says Asif Bajwa, Chief Statistics PBS

[ABCharlie]

I sure hope so. I didn't like his answer to the related question in this interview.

I am very happy that the GDP will be re-based though.

It is definitely not going to be easy. There will be lots of opposition from all quarters at every step. It's a matter of power and money, after all. But things wont remain same either. Let's hope for the best.

 

[Kabira]

BRR: In the wake of devolution and signs of political competition, dont you think the PBS needs to work on disaggregated statistics such as provincial GDP, CPI etcetera?

AB: It is the job of the provincial statistics department. They should do it.

This is interesting, for healthy competition we need to get provincial GDP growth rates.

 

[Kyoto]

Well. Nigeria Jumped from something like 280 billion USD to 510-20 Billion USD.

and how will it effect our GDP growth rate ? As after some study i came to know that India's GDP growth rate before 2015 re-basing was only something between 4-5%. and suddenly it jumped to 7% after re-basing. can we expect such rise in Pakistan's Growth rate ?

Lol India is refusing to give the full data for its GDP growth figures and keeps revising them. The change for Pakistan will definitely effect gross growth but not necessarily GDP growth as far as I know. Pakistan has a large informal and unregulated economy even for a developing country so GDP could increase almost as sharply as Nigeria's.

 

[Lurch Adams]

how Does re-basing GDP will effect Pakistan's economy ?

Re-basing essentially means changing the reference prices that are used to value output. So if the reference prices are outdated, then your current GDP will be under-valued. Also, the price of certain outputs may have increased dis-proportionately, and re-basing ensures that the relative value of each output is correctly taken into account. So expect a significant jump in the GDP once re-basing takes place.

However, you also mentioned growth rate. Here, it gets tricky. While re-basing ensures more accurate valuation of current output, it also leads to distortion of rapid current growth. Suppose Pakistan’s economy is growing at 6% based on current GDP, once re-basing takes place, the base itself will be higher. As a result, the growth rate will be reported as being lesser, maybe 5%, whereas in essence it is growing at 6% only. There is a proposed solution to this issue by which you calculate GDP at both old and new prices and then average out the previous years, depending on how far away from each year we are.

The reason for India’s higher growth rate was not re-basing. Re-basing increased the total GDP, but not the growth rate. The growth rate reported was higher because of increase in the residuary categories, basically greater inclusion of informal sector for which precise statistics are difficult to get. It definitely is more of a guesstimate than accurate figure.

Lol India is refusing to give the full data for its GDP growth figures and keeps revising them.

Yes, there is a degree of ad-hocism in the way GDP, particularly residual categories are calculated. But that is because of the difficulty in accurately estimating output in the informal sector, and not wrong intent. So the data is liable to be revised, just as it will be in Pakistan once re-basing is done. Both countries have a very large informal sector and including it in GDP is a challenge.

 

[My-Analogous]

So here we are hoping for what ? A 100 billion USD Increase, May be ?

I think more then that. We didn't include real agriculture land and plus lots of small businesses and self employee businesses

 

[RealNapster]

Lol India is refusing to give the full data for its GDP growth figures and keeps revising them. The change for Pakistan will definitely effect gross growth but not necessarily GDP growth as far as I know. Pakistan has a large informal and unregulated economy even for a developing country so GDP could increase almost as sharply as Nigeria's.

Yes i am aware of the doubts regarding Indian GDP figures. though i don't think our Change will be as sharply as Nigeria's one, I am Hoping for $ 100 billion.

Re-basing essentially means changing the reference prices that are used to value output. So if the reference prices are outdated, then your current GDP will be under-valued. Also, the price of certain outputs may have increased dis-proportionately, and re-basing ensures that the relative value of each output is correctly taken into account. So expect a significant jump in the GDP once re-basing takes place.

However, you also mentioned growth rate. Here, it gets tricky. While re-basing ensures more accurate valuation of current output, it also leads to distortion of rapid current growth. Suppose Pakistan’s economy is growing at 6% based on current GDP, once re-basing takes place, the base itself will be higher. As a result, the growth rate will be reported as being lesser, maybe 5%, whereas in essence it is growing at 6% only. There is a proposed solution to this issue by which you calculate GDP at both old and new prices and then average out the previous years, depending on how far away from each year we are.

The reason for India’s higher growth rate was not re-basing. Re-basing increased the total GDP, but not the growth rate. The growth rate reported was higher because of increase in the residuary categories, basically greater inclusion of informal sector for which precise statistics are difficult to get. It definitely is more of a guesstimate than accurate figure.

Thanks mate. it really helped me Understand all this "economics". which i am not good at.

I think more then that. We didn't include real agriculture land and plus lots of small businesses and self employee businesses

Awesome. Let's see what we finally get. Hoping for the best.

 

[BetterPakistan]

Yes i am aware of the doubts regarding Indian GDP figures. though i don't think our Change will be as sharply as Nigeria's one, I am Hoping for $ 100 billion.

You are underestimating Pakistan informal economy. I have heard experts saying on TV that Pakistan informal economy is bigger than that of formal economy. I read on a newspaper that Pakistan informal economy is growing more than formal economy so re basing our GDP can possibly increase our GDP growth.

 

[RealNapster]

You are underestimating Pakistan informal economy. I have heard experts saying on TV that Pakistan informal economy is bigger than that of formal economy. I read on a newspaper that Pakistan informal economy is growing more than formal economy so re basing our GDP can possibly increase our GDP growth.

though i am not an expert in economic's, heck i don't even know ABC of macro-economics.
so, i hope you are right.

 

[BetterPakistan]

not an expert in economic's

neither am I....