GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD

[idune]

GDP Growth has now become a political number: the CPD

Aug 16, 2020

The Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a private research institute, thinks that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) has now become a political 'sensitive' number to show the success of the government.

Demanding the formation of an independent statistics commission, the agency said that in the outgoing 2019-20 fiscal year, their growth should not be 5.24 per cent, but 2.5 per cent or closer.

In an online briefing on Sunday, the CPD said that Bangladesh's statistics had lost credibility due to such figures.

According to the analysis of the research institute, based on the news received in the media, it seems that the GDP growth has been calculated by calculating the first 9 months of the financial year. Corona period money was not calculated in the estimated GDP for the last three months of the year (April-June).

According to the CPD, Pakistan's growth was -0.4 percent, while Vietnam's was 1.61 percent. There is 5.24 percent of Bangladesh!

CPD's executive director. Fahmida Khatun said, “Economic growth has now become a politically sensitive issue. It is shown as the success of the government which has increased more than the previous five years.

'But growth in the economy is not just numbers. If poverty is not reduced, if inequality is increased and employment is not created, then there is no work with high growth, ”he added.

Besides, Fahmida Khatun thinks that the freedom of information gathering organizations is being curtailed as growth is now a political issue.

The CPD has recommended strengthening the Bureau of Statistics to address data vulnerabilities. It is recommended to calculate the GDP every three months and to calculate the GDP on a regional basis to ensure balanced development.

CPD Fellow Dr. recommended the formation of a separate commission for credible information. Mustafizur Rahman said, "In this case, the CPD will provide all kinds of assistance if the government wants."

The CPD says such growth calculations will create confusion in government policymaking. Countries in need of foreign trade may also be confused.
Source: Country Transformation

http://www.newsbybd.net/newsdetail/detail/200/510981

 

[Black_cats]

For first 8 month let’s say we had 8% GDP growth as till February everything was normal. Government imposed lockdown since March 25/26th. So till mid March say growth was 4% and 0% in second half and in next 3 month -4% (it’s huge number). If you count like this still GDP growth comes around 4.5%. If GDP was not shrunk -4% in last 3 month GDP growth would be higher. So I believe even if GDP growth was lower it was not below 4%. Not big difference.

This Jamaati traitor should put his propaganda campaign to rest.

 

[Pandora]

Well writer is correct that rather than having an Anual GDP calculation a Quaterly calculation should be adopted to get a clear picture of your economy. Even in Pakistan data was fudged several times by PPP and PMLN govt which affected our credit rating. Ishaq dar was notorious for fudging data and artificial blooming of GDP. You can easily kick up GDP figures by getting foreign loans and artificially manipulating dollar rate but that is a temporary fix.

 

[DalalErMaNodi]

Well writer is correct that rather than having an Anual GDP calculation a Quaterly calculation should be adopted to get a clear picture of your economy. Even in Pakistan data was fudged several times by PPP and PMLN govt which affected our credit rating. Ishaq dar was notorious for fudging data and artificial blooming of GDP. You can easily kick up GDP figures by getting foreign loans and artificially manipulating dollar rate but that is a temporary fix.

You're right sir, but OP has political agenda.



This guy has attacked and slandered each and every BD poster on here, even those who don't support ruling party are attacked by him.


He is a fascist, it's either you're with him or you're against him.

If you're against him then he will raise hell and tag mods to try and get you banned with false allegations.


Yesterday he nearly got the mods to ban @Black_cats by making false allegations.



By the way according to Asian development Bank Bangladesh's economy will grow by 4.5% this year, while other countries are in the negatives.

Bangladeshi fiscal year 19 -20 ended on June 30, until march our economy was doing just fine so 5% GDP growth is not entirely implausible.


OP doesn't want to talk about this.

 

[Indos]

For first 8 month let’s say we had 8% GDP growth as till February everything was normal. Government imposed lockdown since March 25/26th. So till mid March say growth was 4% and 0% in second half and in next 3 month -4% (it’s huge number). If you count like this still GDP growth comes around 4.5%. If GDP was not shrunk -4% in last 3 month GDP growth would be higher. So I believe even if GDP growth was lower it was not below 4%. Not big difference.

This Jamaati traitor should put his propaganda campaign to rest.

How much is the growth in second quarter when Bangladesh impose lockdown and coronavirus is spreading very vast in Bangladesh ? From here we can see whether the report is true or not.

 

[Black_cats]

How much is the growth in second quarter when Bangladesh impose lockdown and coronavirus is spreading very vast in Bangladesh ? From here we can see whether the report is true or not.

Lockdown imposed in second half of March. Europe started to suffer from mid of February specially Italy and other Western European country and USA from mid March. So I don’t think GDP growth hampered till February. It was targeted to be above 8.5% in the last fiscal year but ended up 5.24%. Even if let’s say Government manipulated data I don’t thinks it’s below 4% due to the above reason. Now you need to decide what was the GDP growth from April to June. For -4% it comes to 4.5% and for -6% it comes to 4%. Do you think in last 3 month GDP shrunk more than that?

 

[Black_cats]

What’s the case with Indonesia?

 

[bluesky]

Demanding the formation of an independent statistics commission, the agency said that in the outgoing 2019-20 fiscal year, their growth should not be 5.24 per cent, but 2.5 per cent or closer.

CPD has rightfully pointed out that the real GDP growth was 2.5% or less and the BBS has as usual inflated it to a baseless 5.2%. Some people here claimed that the CPD is an extension of BNP and Jamaat. But, the think tank is lead by prominent economists and thinkers like Rehman Sobhan, Debapriya Bhattachatiya and many others.

I am surprised to see no challenging by the BBS on the CPD statement. Some people in BD do not feel shame to steal, but feel shame only when caught red handed. And they love to hide it. What a vicious and negative patriotism of showing oneself beautiful superficially!!

I would like to see a BBS report where it publishes data to prove its claim of 5.2% GDP growth. BBS is hoodwinking people with fictitious data, as usual.

 

[Black_cats]

CPD has rightfully pointed out that the real GDP growth was 2.5% or less and the BBS has as usual inflated it to a baseless 5.2%. Some people here claimed that the CPD is an extension of BNP and Jamaat. But, its think tank is lead by prominent economists and thinkers like Rehman Sobhan, Debapriya Bhattachatiya and many others.

I am surprised to see no challenging by the BBS of the authenticity of the CPD statement. Some people in BD do not feel shame to steal, but feel shame only when caught red handed. And they love to hide it. What a vicious and negative patriotism of showing oneself beautiful superficially!!

I would like to see a BBS report where it publishes data to prove its claim of BD gaining 5.2% GDP growth is correct instead of a real 2.5% growth. BBS is hoodwinking people with fictitious data, as usual.

ADB forecasted in June Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 4.5%. Do you think ADB knows less than CPD? For 2.5% GDP growth in last 3.5 month GDP was supposed to shrunk by -10%. Do you think GDP shrunk that much in last 3.5 month and what is your justification for that?

https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/economy/2020/06/18/adb-bangladesh-to-see-7-5-growth-in-fy2021

Downgrading its April’s forecast on GDP growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) yesterday said the economic expansion for the current fiscal year would be 4.5%, and a 7.5% growth was likely in the next fiscal year.

 

[Nike]

Indonesia is in red -5,2% for second quarter report. Government predict for minus 4,8 but actual number is worse. Export being halted, consumption is down nose dive, tourism industry being hit very hard and our aviation industry is very much at their critical points.

While we are at it, China coast Guard and Navy until now shadowing our water boundaries in Natuna with their persistent precence, along with Vietnam coast Guard. This Made military expenditure rising for almost 20 percentage for next year. All in all this bring unpredictable era in the region

 

[Indos]

Lockdown imposed in second half of March. Europe started to suffer from mid of February specially Italy and other Western European country and USA from mid March. So I don’t think GDP growth hampered till February. It was targeted to be above 8.5% in the last fiscal year but needed up 5.24%. Even if let’s say Government manipulated data I don’t thinks it’s below 4% due to the above reason. Now you need to decide what was the GDP growth from April to June. For -4% it comes to 4.5% and for -6% it comes to 4%. Do you think in last 3 month GDP shrunk more than that?

In all other world, Coronavirus have already impacted the economy in the first quarter and you can check to other country data as well. Indonesia for instant grew 2.9 percent in January to March which was about 2.1 percent less than its average growth in 2019 which is 5.02 percent.

What’s the case with Indonesia?

Our lock down is not severe and I think is similar like Bangladesh where some industries are still allowed to operate and restaurants are also allowed to operate under certain measure during 3 month lockdown. Despite so, we still get 5.32 contraction in second quarter. So it means around 10 percent decrease from average 5.02 percent growth last year if we calculate the way you do.

Philippine and Malaysia with more strict lock down contract into respectively 16.5 percent and 17 percent (minus growth).

I think only people in Bangladesh would know since they are the ones who experience the lock down impact on the economy. Just see whether your company get new clients within that period, how much restaurant and other shops revenues performance during that period. You just can ask shops owner near your house or office to know the real impact of the lock down and Covid 19.

What I can say is that the lock down is not a normal situation so dont put previous growth into the calculation, just see the performance of businesses during that period. I guess Bangladeshi member who live in Bangladesh will know it. Quick economic survey can really show the real figure, so the question is that whether the think thank who made the report do some economic survey or not.

 

[bluesky]

ADB forecasted in June Bangladesh’s GDP growth will be 4.5%. Do you think ADB knows less than CPD? For 2.5% GDP growth in last 3.5 month GDP was supposed to shrunk by -10%. Do you think GDP shrunk that much in last 3.5 month and what is your justification for that?

https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/economy/2020/06/18/adb-bangladesh-to-see-7-5-growth-in-fy2021

Downgrading its April’s forecast on GDP growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) yesterday said the economic expansion for the current fiscal year would be 4.5%, and a 7.5% growth was likely in the next fiscal year.

ADB's was a forecast in June when not all data were available. It is now August when all the data have been collected and compiled. Now, if you think CPD is wrong why then BBS does not protest it and come out with its data to prove CPD wrong?

We do not have to trust CPD but how can you also trust BBS? BBS is not Bible. By the way, how it was possible to gain 5.2% when all other nearby countries failed to achieve the same due to the pandemic that caused closing all over the country since March?

Please come up with your own data but I stick to CPD data unless BBS proves them wrong.

 

[Black_cats]

ADB's was a forecast in June when not all data were available. It is now August when all the data have been collected and compiled. Now, if you think CPD is wrong why then BBS does not protest it and come out with its data to prove CPD wrong?

We do not have to trust CPD but how can you also trust BBS? BBS is not Bible. By the way, how it was possible to gain 5.2% when all other nearby countries failed to achieve the same due to the pandemic that caused closing all over the country since March?

Please come up with your own data but I stick to CPD data unless BBS proves them wrong.

Bangladesh did not impose strict lockdown like many other neighboring countries so the impact was lesser than those countries. Let’s hypothetically 2.5% gdp growth still it’s better than many other countries where GDP growth was negative. But I highly doubt it is below 4% anyway.

 

[Black_cats]

Another thing CPD forecast the 2.5% GDP growth during pandemic in June before ADB forecast not now.

GDP growth to slide to 2.5pc:CPD

https://unb.com.bd/m/category/Bangl...nomy-briefing-gdp-growth-to-slide-to-25/52682

You can find details on the GDP report by BBS here:

http://bbs.portal.gov.bd/sites/defa...10-14-49-94b60708240f454c1036d64090cf38ec.pdf

 

[Nilgiri]

Well writer is correct that rather than having an Anual GDP calculation a Quaterly calculation should be adopted to get a clear picture of your economy. Even in Pakistan data was fudged several times by PPP and PMLN govt which affected our credit rating. Ishaq dar was notorious for fudging data and artificial blooming of GDP. You can easily kick up GDP figures by getting foreign loans and artificially manipulating dollar rate but that is a temporary fix.

Well you can imagine what the situation would be in Pakistan if PMLN refused to hand power to caretaker govt to run a credible election (which saw a peaceful transition of power to another party given the anti-incumbency)....and instead PMLN "won" a 95% seat mandate instead.

You tell me what would be the current situation resulting from that for GDP (esp credibility and sustainability) today if that happened, because that has happened in equivalent way for BD. BBS is an inflation laundering machine....and the reason is clear once you look at all 3rd party vetted data (trade, investment, loans and forex level)

PMIK has inherited a real mess, but at least first step of recognising the mess is done so it can be fixed over time. That is the main difference in credibility now between BD and rest of south asia that dont have 95% staged seat results....or linger at bottom 10% percentile of corruption constantly.

CPD has rightfully pointed out that the real GDP growth was 2.5% or less and the BBS has as usual inflated it to a baseless 5.2%. Some people here claimed that the CPD is an extension of BNP and Jamaat. But, its think tank is lead by prominent economists and thinkers like Rehman Sobhan, Debapriya Bhattachatiya and many others.

I am surprised to see no challenging by the BBS of the authenticity of the CPD statement. Some people in BD do not feel shame to steal, but feel shame only when caught red handed. And they love to hide it. What a vicious and negative patriotism of showing oneself beautiful superficially!!

I would like to see a BBS report where it publishes data to prove its claim of BD gaining 5.2% GDP growth is correct instead of a real 2.5% growth. BBS is hoodwinking people with fictitious data, as usual.

Well said....and of course we are seeing shooting of messenger already.

Just like that dhaka uni professor that pointed out that household consumption dropped in BBS own HIES survey once you factor in consumer price level.

BBS never responded to that....and same people attacked that analysis.

Then such people want to hold up ADB, WB, IMF or whomever else analysis/prediction....as though those groups have their own independent input data stream (regarding base consumptions and price levels) rather than the one published by BBS. ...i.e Nothing systematic from BBS gets baked in at all apparently....its all a fresh set of eyes and clean parallel streams.

Indonesia is in red -5,2% for second quarter report. Government predict for minus 4,8 but actual number is worse. Export being halted, consumption is down nose dive, tourism industry being hit very hard and our aviation industry is very much at their critical points.

While we are at it, China coast Guard and Navy until now shadowing our water boundaries in Natuna with their persistent precence, along with Vietnam coast Guard. This Made military expenditure rising for almost 20 percentage for next year. All in all this bring unpredictable era in the region

Yes this is going to be quite bad chunk of years coming up for many countries. Not everything is going to recover at same rate either...and there is likely some level of long term (5+ years) damage to many sectors...esp. given what the overall equity yields are looking like now esp for developing countries.

Quick economic survey can really show the real figure, so the question is that whether the think thank who made the report do some economic survey or not.

Yah, but BD does not like doing those credibly (the dhaka prof I refer to is one example where there was no response to a major real result that was overlooked in a govt survey itself).

If BD had some sense it would fund (or simply allow independent funding of) more economic institutions to offer better internal challenges and debates and RFI etc for their monolith govt econometrics....like is done in better standards countries (with better credit ratings and corruption rankings) as result.

But the ruling PM has all kind of vendetta against even their better economic minds like prof yunus of grameen. She has 95% seat result to brag and lord over any dissonant voices.