TigerOfMysore
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Game Theory Pakistan’s Next Political Steps:
Scenario 1: Pakistani Establishment is truly stepping away from politics and is neither involved nor actively supporting the PDM government.
Under this scenario the PDM government has a free hand on actions within Baluchistan, Sindh and the Center. PTI governments should have a free hand in KPK, Punjab, AK and GB. Then this entire game will be a test of the 18th Amendment. It will be a test of provincial independence, versus Federal control. It will be a test of the Center’s machinery versus Street political mobilization. In this scenario we should expect the political temperature to continue to rise with an eventual break down of socio-economic and politics constrains. We should expect politics to generate into some street level agitation. Center will continue to crack down on alternative views and will leverage all methods available through legal and extra-legal in order to slow any agitation. This spiral will cause harm to socio-economic stability and since Pakistan’s judicial system is weak, the only outcome short of some major political assassination, would be a full military martial law or a center run martial law or governors’ rule over the other provinces. This could either then result in suppression of political opposition or degenerate into further civil unrest.
Scenario 2: Pakistani Establishment is actively working hand in glove with the PDM government.
Under this scenario we are likely to still see the eventual outcome related to scenario 1. However, we are likely to see a strong force of suppression and faster means of societal control. We are likely to see a national PTI movement degenerate into regional insurgencies, with KPK taking the lead. This insurgency would be extremely difficult for the Pakistani Army to control. Depending on the controlling hands of this insurgency it could be either oriented towards a united Pakistan or it could result in a movement of separation. We are likely to see the PTM movement’s narrative gain momentum and this movement will likely be supported clandestinely by foreign forces. Baluchistan’s insurgency will take on a bigger footprint, pinning down much of the FC (South) along with units of the Army. We’ll see a departure of wealth and brains from Pakistan and with that the country will teeter towards more poor governance. We’ll see pockets of independent movements in Southern Punjab driven by religious groups and schools and Sind will likely see a heating up of Sindhi independence, as the poor governance by PPP over the years will provide good grounds for an angry and disheartened public. Pakistan united structure will be shaken.
In both the scenario the future of Pakistan is bleak. PTI must get prepared for scenario 2. This will require it to develop and build bridges with many parts of the society. They need to establish stronger links with the Tajir community. They need to develop stronger more formal structure of inclusion with ex-Servicemen. They also need to establish an operating structure of a Patriotic Citizens Group – that is in large measure managed and run through the ex-Servicemen who number in the millions within Pakistan. PTI needs to provide open doors of engagement for all political parties, giving all parties avenues to thrive and survive as independent organizations but without the baggage of their corrupted leadership. They have to help develop those alternatives within all the PDM parties. Just as they did the JUI-F, they need to help establish strong viable alternatives within PPP and PML(N). In some ways PML(Shujjat) is also an alternative for PML(N), however it remains more restricted to southern Punjab. An organization similar for Northern Punjab needs to be developed as well. And finally PTI needs to allow open bridges for the armed forces. PTI should continue to develop relationships with the PAF, PN and even other power domains with the PA, through the positions of CJCS as well as Corp Commanders and other Military Intelligence organizations. PTI also needs to develop a step up plan to create more temperature while giving their opponents open doors to take. Temperature needs to include the following:
NOTE: I am putting ideas out there to discuss. In no way do I intend to have people under these steps or do I believe that Pakistan is in Scenario 1 or 2. This is purely meant to game theory what actions PTI can take in the case it is met with either of the scenarios.
Scenario 1: Pakistani Establishment is truly stepping away from politics and is neither involved nor actively supporting the PDM government.
Under this scenario the PDM government has a free hand on actions within Baluchistan, Sindh and the Center. PTI governments should have a free hand in KPK, Punjab, AK and GB. Then this entire game will be a test of the 18th Amendment. It will be a test of provincial independence, versus Federal control. It will be a test of the Center’s machinery versus Street political mobilization. In this scenario we should expect the political temperature to continue to rise with an eventual break down of socio-economic and politics constrains. We should expect politics to generate into some street level agitation. Center will continue to crack down on alternative views and will leverage all methods available through legal and extra-legal in order to slow any agitation. This spiral will cause harm to socio-economic stability and since Pakistan’s judicial system is weak, the only outcome short of some major political assassination, would be a full military martial law or a center run martial law or governors’ rule over the other provinces. This could either then result in suppression of political opposition or degenerate into further civil unrest.
Scenario 2: Pakistani Establishment is actively working hand in glove with the PDM government.
Under this scenario we are likely to still see the eventual outcome related to scenario 1. However, we are likely to see a strong force of suppression and faster means of societal control. We are likely to see a national PTI movement degenerate into regional insurgencies, with KPK taking the lead. This insurgency would be extremely difficult for the Pakistani Army to control. Depending on the controlling hands of this insurgency it could be either oriented towards a united Pakistan or it could result in a movement of separation. We are likely to see the PTM movement’s narrative gain momentum and this movement will likely be supported clandestinely by foreign forces. Baluchistan’s insurgency will take on a bigger footprint, pinning down much of the FC (South) along with units of the Army. We’ll see a departure of wealth and brains from Pakistan and with that the country will teeter towards more poor governance. We’ll see pockets of independent movements in Southern Punjab driven by religious groups and schools and Sind will likely see a heating up of Sindhi independence, as the poor governance by PPP over the years will provide good grounds for an angry and disheartened public. Pakistan united structure will be shaken.
In both the scenario the future of Pakistan is bleak. PTI must get prepared for scenario 2. This will require it to develop and build bridges with many parts of the society. They need to establish stronger links with the Tajir community. They need to develop stronger more formal structure of inclusion with ex-Servicemen. They also need to establish an operating structure of a Patriotic Citizens Group – that is in large measure managed and run through the ex-Servicemen who number in the millions within Pakistan. PTI needs to provide open doors of engagement for all political parties, giving all parties avenues to thrive and survive as independent organizations but without the baggage of their corrupted leadership. They have to help develop those alternatives within all the PDM parties. Just as they did the JUI-F, they need to help establish strong viable alternatives within PPP and PML(N). In some ways PML(Shujjat) is also an alternative for PML(N), however it remains more restricted to southern Punjab. An organization similar for Northern Punjab needs to be developed as well. And finally PTI needs to allow open bridges for the armed forces. PTI should continue to develop relationships with the PAF, PN and even other power domains with the PA, through the positions of CJCS as well as Corp Commanders and other Military Intelligence organizations. PTI also needs to develop a step up plan to create more temperature while giving their opponents open doors to take. Temperature needs to include the following:
- Openly stating that certain parts of the Pakistani Army is involved in politicking against their constitutional and oath obligations
- Asking their supporters and the nation at large to not pay any taxes for certain periods of time
- Asking students to not attend schools for certain days and march on the streets in solidarity
- To shutdown train stations and bus depots
- To shutdown logistic transportation
- To shutdown shops and private offices
- To open cases of torture and oppression in international courts and jurisdictions against key figures and institutions (where they can leverage the large expat-Pakistani support that they have)
- To express openly to international organizations that any decision or contracts will be subject to renegotiation when they or their allies return to power, as the current government is not a legitimate representative of the Sovereign
- PTI needs to develop second and third level leadership in the case of assassinations
- PTI also needs to develop a defence force manned and run by the many ex-servicemen who are their supporters
- PTI needs to file cases against foreign Banks for corrupt practices in local and international jurisdictions
- PTI needs to identify and develop an open list of bureaucrats, and other official functionaries and politicians, with well defined charge sheets of corruption and going against the interest of the nation – this charge sheet would be used in the court of Public – and could be used as leverage to forewarn that if the environment is made unbearable for honest Pakistanis, then there will for history and perhaps action, be names of individuals who the public must take to task, since all national machinery has failed to hold them to account.
NOTE: I am putting ideas out there to discuss. In no way do I intend to have people under these steps or do I believe that Pakistan is in Scenario 1 or 2. This is purely meant to game theory what actions PTI can take in the case it is met with either of the scenarios.
