Before answering Vostok's questions I'll opine about what I think could, but probably wont, happen in Europe over the next decade.
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Putin's last year? He's going full Robot Nixon and ruling forever!
I'm just joking of course, but I don't see him stepping down in the next decade at least. Like China's Xi, Putin has grand aspirations of not just a revived Russia, but remaking the global order. He's in this for the long haul.
As the Arctic continues to thaw, and resources become easier to exploit, Norway and Russia have a detente of sorts in an attempt to undercut Denmark, Canada, China and the US, who also claim swaths of the Arctic Ocean. Like they did with oil and gas expiration and agriculture, Norway and Russia come to an understanding that their expertise in resource management are better suited combined, rather than as competitors. Especially as heavy weights like China and Japan start to eye the Arctic with increased fervor.
Something like what Russia and Norway did with Shtokman field.
The EU continues to slide into a state of being partially sundered by populist movements playing on national sentiment and backlash against Brussels. The UK however realizes it's made a mistake by cutting itself out of the EU completely and increases its cooperation
with the EU, if only just. The populist contagion
of Italy and Greece further spreads to Poland, Spain and begins to seep into Sweden more so then today, weakening the EU further as far-right politics, driven by unfavorable economic conditions and a continuation of the migrant crisis. The EU survives, but is increasingly on life-support.
Europe, learning the lessons from Trump and the inherent instability of the US political system, but uneasy about China and Russia's quasi-dictatorships becomes less willing to engage with either side diplomatically and focuses on economics, though they too become increasingly one sided in the face of Asian and North American heavyweights and populist/protectionist policies. This furthers Europe's own far-right shift to match.
Russia continues to cause trouble in the Baltics, seeking to create conditions similar to those in Georgia and Ukraine, enduring conflicts in an attempt to fracture NATO and weaken the political situation of the Baltic nations, encourage pro-Russian political policies.
Northern Cyprus faces a revolt as Turkification increases in the North of the island. It's suppressed by the Turkish military on the island and Turkey takes full control over the territory. Relations with Europe decline as a result.
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Just a few scenarios
I can foresee
happening on the continent.
My list:
Hungary,
Bulgaria,
Serbia,
Czech Republic,
Slovakia,
Italy,
Austria,
Netherlands,
Greece,
Germany.
Pro-Russian? The Czechs, Hungarians, Bulgarians, Serbs and Slovaks. They already oscillate between being in favor of greater integration with the EU and being more aligned with Russia as is.
The rest I can't see turning more to Russia, but like with the UK, Russia could influence politics in Germany and Italy to gain a foothold, similar to what we saw with President Trump and Brexit and the influence campaign linked to Russia.
We will consider that NATO and the EU have not changed, but pro-Russian politicians have come to power in some countries, and are ready to lift sanctions and form a Greater Europe including Russia.
Greater Europe with Russia? Even with pro-Russian parties that's just not happening. If anything I'd say we're in for further fracturing of Europe as populists gain footholds across the continent and the EU is targeted by its member states. Maybe a Pan-Scandinavian states? But more realistically we'll just see the continent continue to squabble rather then unify. It's the time honored European way.
The Socialist People's Republic of Greater Scandinavia, if we'd include Russia.
Or the Scandinavian Union if just the four nations, maybe Finland and Estonia too.
But with the Nordic Counsil nations putting more emphasis on themselves, at the expense of the rest of Europe, we'd like see a unified nation as a result of the Nordics and proto-Nordics (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania).
We may see increased cooperation with Russia, similar to what Norway and Russia had been doing with their energy and agricultural sectors prior to the Crimea crisis, but Russia's not likely to be coming into the European fold anytime soon. There are too many factors working against it. That's not the say individual nations would lift their sanctions on Russia or seek to increase ties/lessen tensions - I've always been in favor of expanded cultural and economic ties with Russia, considering we're neighbors with a long history of cordial ties - I just don't think Europe as a whole, or even half to be honest, would truly welcome Russia as a "European" nation. There's just too much bad blood that could subside for a time, but bubble up again at any moment.
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It's funny to imagine what Europe and NATO would be like if Russia had actually accepted an invitation to become part of NATO. Alas that's but a dream at this point.
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