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From 1945 until today - 20 to 30 million people killed by the USA

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From 1945 until today - 20 to 30 million people killed by the USA
by Manlio Dinucci

It’s a fact, not an analysis, not even an opinion – the « free and open international order» promoted since 1945 by the United States has cost the lives of 20 to 30 million people throughout the world. No President, whoever he may be, has managed to slow the rhythm of this killing machine.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | ROME (ITALY) | 20 NOVEMBER 2018

Voltairenet-org_-_1_1_-257-88288.jpg


In the summary of its last strategic document - 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America (of which the entire text is classified) - the Pentagon claims that « after the Second World War, the United States and their allies installed a « free and open international order in order to safeguard the freedom of the people from aggression and coercion », but that « this order is presently undermined by Russia and China, who are violating the principles and rules of international relations ». This is a total reversal of historical reality.

Professor Michel Chossudovsky, director of the Center for Research on Globalization, reminds us that these two countries, listed today as enemies, are those which, when they were allied with the United States during the Second World War, paid the victory over the Nazi-fascist Axis Berlin-Rome-Tokyo with the greatest price in human lives – approximately 26 million from the Soviet Union and 20 million from China, compared with a little more than 400,000 from the United States.

With this preliminary, Chossudovsky introduces to Global Research a documented study by James A. Lucas on the number of people killed by the uninterrupted series of wars, coups d’État and other subversive operations executed by the United States from the end of the War in 1945 until now – a number estimated at 20 to 30 million victims [1]. Approximately twice the number of deaths from the First World War, the centenary of the end of which has just been celebrated in Paris with a Peace Forum.

Apart from the deaths, there are the wounded, who very often find themselves crippled for life – some experts calculate that for every person killed in war, ten others are wounded. This means that the number of people wounded by US wars should be counted in the hundreds of millions.

To this estimation in the study we must add a non-quantified number of dead, probably hundreds of millions, which have been caused, from 1945 until today, by the indirect effects of wars - famine, epidemics, forced migrations, slavery and exploitation, environmental damage, subtraction of resources from vital needs in order to cover military expenditure.

The study documents the wars and coups d’État executed by the United States in 30 Asian, African, European and Latin-American countries. It reveals that US military forces are directly responsible for between 10 and 15 million deaths, caused by the major wars – those against Korea and Vietnam and the two wars against Iraq. Between 10 and 14 million other deaths have been caused by the proxy wars waged by the allied armed forces trained and commanded by the USA in Afghanistan, Angola, Congo, Sudan, Guatemala and other countries.

The Vietnam War, which spread to Cambodia and Laos, caused a number of deaths estimated at 7.8 million (plus a huge number of wounded, and genetic damage affecting generations due to the dioxin sprayed by US aircraft).

The proxy war of the 1980’s in Afghanistan was organised by the CIA, which trained and armed – with the collaboration of Oussama ben Laden and Pakistan – more than 100,000 mujahideen to fight the Soviet troops who had fallen into the « Afghan trap » (as it was later described by Zbigniew Brzezinski, specifying that the training of the mujahideen had begun in July 1979, five months before the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan).

The bloodiest coup d’État was organised in 1965 in Indonesia by the CIA – it handed over the list of the first 5,000 Communists and others marked for death to the Indonesian murder squads. The number of people assassinated is estimated at between 500,000 and 3 million.

That is the « free and open international order » that the United States, independently of the White House, persist in pursuing in order to « safeguard the people from aggression and coercion ».

 
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From 1945 until today - 20 to 30 million people killed by the USA
by Manlio Dinucci

It’s a fact, not an analysis, not even an opinion – the « free and open international order» promoted since 1945 by the United States has cost the lives of 20 to 30 million people throughout the world. No President, whoever he may be, has managed to slow the rhythm of this killing machine.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | ROME (ITALY) | 20 NOVEMBER 2018

Voltairenet-org_-_1_1_-257-88288.jpg


In the summary of its last strategic document - 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America (of which the entire text is classified) - the Pentagon claims that « after the Second World War, the United States and their allies installed a « free and open international order in order to safeguard the freedom of the people from aggression and coercion », but that « this order is presently undermined by Russia and China, who are violating the principles and rules of international relations ». This is a total reversal of historical reality.

Professor Michel Chossudovsky, director of the Center for Research on Globalization, reminds us that these two countries, listed today as enemies, are those which, when they were allied with the United States during the Second World War, paid the victory over the Nazi-fascist Axis Berlin-Rome-Tokyo with the greatest price in human lives – approximately 26 million from the Soviet Union and 20 million from China, compared with a little more than 400,000 from the United States.

With this preliminary, Chossudovsky introduces to Global Research a documented study by James A. Lucas on the number of people killed by the uninterrupted series of wars, coups d’État and other subversive operations executed by the United States from the end of the War in 1945 until now – a number estimated at 20 to 30 million victims [1]. Approximately twice the number of deaths from the First World War, the centenary of the end of which has just been celebrated in Paris with a Peace Forum.

Apart from the deaths, there are the wounded, who very often find themselves crippled for life – some experts calculate that for every person killed in war, ten others are wounded. This means that the number of people wounded by US wars should be counted in the hundreds of millions.

To this estimation in the study we must add a non-quantified number of dead, probably hundreds of millions, which have been caused, from 1945 until today, by the indirect effects of wars - famine, epidemics, forced migrations, slavery and exploitation, environmental damage, subtraction of resources from vital needs in order to cover military expenditure.

The study documents the wars and coups d’État executed by the United States in 30 Asian, African, European and Latin-American countries. It reveals that US military forces are directly responsible for between 10 and 15 million deaths, caused by the major wars – those against Korea and Vietnam and the two wars against Iraq. Between 10 and 14 million other deaths have been caused by the proxy wars waged by the allied armed forces trained and commanded by the USA in Afghanistan, Angola, Congo, Sudan, Guatemala and other countries.

The Vietnam War, which spread to Cambodia and Laos, caused a number of deaths estimated at 7.8 million (plus a huge number of wounded, and genetic damage affecting generations due to the dioxin sprayed by US aircraft).

The proxy war of the 1980’s in Afghanistan was organised by the CIA, which trained and armed – with the collaboration of Oussama ben Laden and Pakistan – more than 100,000 mujahideen to fight the Soviet troops who had fallen into the « Afghan trap » (as it was later described by Zbigniew Brzezinski, specifying that the training of the mujahideen had begun in July 1979, five months before the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan).

The bloodiest coup d’État was organised in 1965 in Indonesia by the CIA – it handed over the list of the first 5,000 Communists and others marked for death to the Indonesian murder squads. The number of people assassinated is estimated at between 500,000 and 3 million.

That is the « free and open international order » that the United States, independently of the White House, persist in pursuing in order to « safeguard the people from aggression and coercion ».


how many million chinese people killed by mao communists ?
 
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Who profited from those wars and deaths? Whose standard of living and wealth has skyrocketed? Certain Americans, some Canadians, some people in the UK, much of Europe, a great many people in East Asia, Israelis and the elite Arabs of the Gulf states.
 
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From 1945 until today - 20 to 30 million people killed by the USA
by Manlio Dinucci

It’s a fact, not an analysis, not even an opinion – the « free and open international order» promoted since 1945 by the United States has cost the lives of 20 to 30 million people throughout the world. No President, whoever he may be, has managed to slow the rhythm of this killing machine.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | ROME (ITALY) | 20 NOVEMBER 2018

Voltairenet-org_-_1_1_-257-88288.jpg


In the summary of its last strategic document - 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America (of which the entire text is classified) - the Pentagon claims that « after the Second World War, the United States and their allies installed a « free and open international order in order to safeguard the freedom of the people from aggression and coercion », but that « this order is presently undermined by Russia and China, who are violating the principles and rules of international relations ». This is a total reversal of historical reality.

Professor Michel Chossudovsky, director of the Center for Research on Globalization, reminds us that these two countries, listed today as enemies, are those which, when they were allied with the United States during the Second World War, paid the victory over the Nazi-fascist Axis Berlin-Rome-Tokyo with the greatest price in human lives – approximately 26 million from the Soviet Union and 20 million from China, compared with a little more than 400,000 from the United States.

With this preliminary, Chossudovsky introduces to Global Research a documented study by James A. Lucas on the number of people killed by the uninterrupted series of wars, coups d’État and other subversive operations executed by the United States from the end of the War in 1945 until now – a number estimated at 20 to 30 million victims [1]. Approximately twice the number of deaths from the First World War, the centenary of the end of which has just been celebrated in Paris with a Peace Forum.

Apart from the deaths, there are the wounded, who very often find themselves crippled for life – some experts calculate that for every person killed in war, ten others are wounded. This means that the number of people wounded by US wars should be counted in the hundreds of millions.

To this estimation in the study we must add a non-quantified number of dead, probably hundreds of millions, which have been caused, from 1945 until today, by the indirect effects of wars - famine, epidemics, forced migrations, slavery and exploitation, environmental damage, subtraction of resources from vital needs in order to cover military expenditure.

The study documents the wars and coups d’État executed by the United States in 30 Asian, African, European and Latin-American countries. It reveals that US military forces are directly responsible for between 10 and 15 million deaths, caused by the major wars – those against Korea and Vietnam and the two wars against Iraq. Between 10 and 14 million other deaths have been caused by the proxy wars waged by the allied armed forces trained and commanded by the USA in Afghanistan, Angola, Congo, Sudan, Guatemala and other countries.

The Vietnam War, which spread to Cambodia and Laos, caused a number of deaths estimated at 7.8 million (plus a huge number of wounded, and genetic damage affecting generations due to the dioxin sprayed by US aircraft).

The proxy war of the 1980’s in Afghanistan was organised by the CIA, which trained and armed – with the collaboration of Oussama ben Laden and Pakistan – more than 100,000 mujahideen to fight the Soviet troops who had fallen into the « Afghan trap » (as it was later described by Zbigniew Brzezinski, specifying that the training of the mujahideen had begun in July 1979, five months before the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan).

The bloodiest coup d’État was organised in 1965 in Indonesia by the CIA – it handed over the list of the first 5,000 Communists and others marked for death to the Indonesian murder squads. The number of people assassinated is estimated at between 500,000 and 3 million.

That is the « free and open international order » that the United States, independently of the White House, persist in pursuing in order to « safeguard the people from aggression and coercion ».


while i don't want to merely point the finger at China, i do want the world to know that many governments have had a bad track record during the 20th century..


II. THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
8. The People's Republic of China: Overview
9. 8,427,000 Victims: The Totalization Period
10.7,474,000 Victims: Collectivization and "The Great Leap Forward"
11. 10,729,000 Victims: The Great Famine and Retrenchment Period
12. 7,731,000 Victims: The "Cultural Revolution"
13. 874,000 Victims: Liberalization
 
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while i don't want to merely point the finger at China, i do want the world to know that many governments have had a bad track record during the 20th century..


II. THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
Declassified CIA documents show that wide spread malnutrition happened in early 1960's but no large scale famine in China.

Western media propaganda is a lie even being debunked by their own old documents and records.

253046482.jpg

So called "Mao's genocide" spurred the fastest population growth in the whole Chinese history...

Population of China since 1960 in millions
_20201217210448-png.697269
 
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InshAllah the blood hungry USA will reap what it sow..soon enough. It already facing revenge in the face of Covid19. The real justice is still awaiting. Hiroshimi Nagasaki Afghanistan Yemen Iraq & dozens of helpless countries & millions of dead souls will forever haunt this nation built on lies.
 
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how many million chinese people killed by mao communists ?
Mao came to power in 1949, died in 1976, in power for 27 years, in 1949 China's population was 400 million, in 1976, the nubmber increased to 900 million. China's population more than doubled during Mao's 27 years in power.

This huge increase of population in such a short span of time was unprecedented in the Chinese history, Mao brought the end to China's 100 years wars and humiliations by the foreign powers, created a peaceful and stable time era and made the ground for the population growth, before Mao, the Chinese population had been stagnant for centuries due to incessant wars, famines, natural disasters, plagues and mismanagements.
 
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Declassified CIA documents show that wide spread malnutrition happened in early 1960's but no large scale famine in China.

Western media propaganda is a lie even being debunked by their own old documents and records.

View attachment 697308
So called "Mao's genocide" spurred the fastest population growth in the whole Chinese history...

Population of China since 1960 in millions
_20201217210448-png.697269

In these pages nearly seven years ago, Timothy Snyder asked the provocative question: Who killed more, Hitler or Stalin? As useful as that exercise in moral rigor was, some think the question itself might have been slightly off. Instead, it should have included a third tyrant of the twentieth century, Chairman Mao. And not just that, but that Mao should have been the hands-down winner, with his ledger easily trumping the European dictators’.

While these questions can devolve into morbid pedantry, they raise moral questions that deserve a fresh look, especially as these months mark the sixtieth anniversary of the launch of Mao’s most infamous experiment in social engineering, the Great Leap Forward. It was this campaign that caused the deaths of tens of millions and catapulted Mao Zedong into the big league of twentieth-century murders.

But Mao’s mistakes are more than a chance to reflect on the past. They are also now part of a central debate in Xi Jinping’s China, where the Communist Party is renewing a long-standing battle to protect its legitimacy by limiting discussions of Mao.

and unlike modern-day China, we here in the west embrace free speech.
sometimes conflicting views of history can be posted around the web.

in China, all you get to post is the official Party viewpoints.
 
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Donald Trump, 300,000 deaths so far and still increasing by thousands every passing day.
 
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prove it, please
Before Mao China's population was 400 million for a long time, after Mao, the size was doubled to 900 million in 27 years. What kind of proof you want?

1900年前后全国人口约为4.43亿


中国人口增长的历史轨迹
中华人民共和国成立后的第一年,中国大陆的人口总规模就已经达到了5.5亿之多。由于卫生事业的迅速进步,危害人民群众的许多流行病,如天花、疟疾、痢疾、血吸虫等,得到了有效的控制,人口死亡率出现了前所未有的大幅度下降,从1949年的20‰直线跌落到1958年的11%,几乎下降一半。而人口的出生率却没有下降,基本维持在解放前37‰左右的高水平上。正是由于出生率“不变”和死亡率的“快变”同时发生,50年代中国人口增长率不断攀升,从1949年的16‰快速增加到50年代中期的23-24‰。年平均增加人数也从1949年的1000万人增加到1957年的1479万人。人口总规模也从1950年的5.5亿迅速增加到1959年的6.7亿,人口增长呈现一种加速的态势。
1959年至1961年间,由于严重自然灾害的侵袭,出生率不正常地猛然下跌,死亡率陡然增高,暂时打断了建国后人口快速增长的进程。但1962年,随着经济状况的好转,出生率迅速恢复到37‰以上,1963年更是陡增到建国以来的最高水平43.37‰。,1962年以后每年出生人数高达2700万左右,最高时甚至达到2954万(1963年),年净增人口数也平均高达2000万以上。20世纪60年代成为建国后人口增长最迅猛的时期。
沿着快速增长的轨道,中国人口总量在1973年已经达到8.9亿的巨大规模。为了减缓人口规模的过快膨胀,70年代初期,中国政府在全国范围内开展了一场轰轰烈烈的计划生育运动,成千上万的医生和干部走进田间地头,向群众宣传计划生育的知识,为他们提供免费的计划生育药具和技术服务,提倡“晚、稀、少”的生育观念。这是一场长达几十年社会工程,它不仅动员了亿万人民群众的参与,而且也深刻影响了亿万群众的生育行为。中国人口发展的轨迹和发展的面貌,由此发生了全新的变化。根据各个时期人口增长各指标的不同特点,我们将中国人口自70年代以来的历史轨迹划分为四个发展阶段。
(一)人口增长由快速向慢速转变。在计划生育的有力推动下,全国人口出生率从l970年的33.43‰降到1979年的17.82‰;人口自然增长率从1970年的25.83‰下降到1979年的11.61‰;1970年全国年净增人口2144万, 1979年则降为1125万。各项速度和增量指标几乎都下降了50%以上。妇女总和生育率从1970年的5.8下降到1978年的2.7,其下降速度之快,在世界上都是罕见的。中国在控制人口出生和增长方面取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成绩,扭转了在此以前持续了20余年的高生育和高增长的局面。这是中国人口发展史上,特别是建国以来人口发展的一个历史性转折。
(二)人口增长的波动与反复。以经济建设为中心的轨道上来。在70年代初婚年龄大幅度提高、生育率普遍急剧下降之后,最初的“启动”效应已经过去,进一步提高甚至维持较高的婚龄遇到阻力;生育率已降到较低水平,进一步下降也比70年代困难得多。党和政府在总结建国以来处理人口问题的正反两方面经验教训的基础上,进一步明确了控制人口过快增长的战略意义,中央把计划生育定为我国的基本国策,将其全面科学地表述为“控制人口数量,提高人口素质”,并将其列入宪法。在实施环节,加强了领导,健全了组织,完善了政策,使控制人口更有力地坚持下去。与70年代启动时期的顺利下降相比,80年代无论是人口增长速度,还是出生人数,都经历了一个明显的波动与反复的过程,这是一个相持和攻坚的艰难时期。
由于周期性出生高峰的影响和计划生育政策的调整与完善,出生率从1984年的19.9‰迅速回升到1987年的23.3‰,自然增长率也相应从1984年的13.08‰反弹到1987年的16.61‰。每年净增人口从1984年的1351万跳至1987年的1795万,整整增加了444万。但是,出生高峰和政策调整影响毕竟是暂时的,不会从根本上扭转人口转变的方向。所以,在经历了短暂的上升以后,人口出生率和增长率从高点上又开始逐步回落,到1989年,出生率降为21.58 ‰,增长率降为15.04 ‰。经历这次波动后,整个90年代的出生率和增长率再也没有出现反复,一直保持了下降的趋势。
(三)人口规模的惯性增长和人口内在增长趋势。90年代是中国人口政策取得丰硕成果的辉煌时期。中国在经济还不发达的情况下,有效地控制了人口过快增长,使生育水平下降到更替水平以下。这是中国几十年人口与计划生育政策实施的必然结果,也是中国人口控制的最重大的成就。
总和生育率下降到更替水平以后,中国的人口规模就开始从实质性增长阶段转变为惯性增长的阶段。按照发达国家的经验,当总和生育率下降到更替水平以后,人口数量很快就能稳定下来,惯性增长不明显。中国的人口转变与发达国家的人口转变有明显的不同。因为西方发达国家总和生育率达到更替水平是一个自然的人口转变过程,人口年龄结构并没有剧烈的变动;而我们国家的人口转变是在原有人口的高增长条件下,采取“刹车”的方式使总和生育率达到甚至低于更替水平,因此人口的惯性增长需要很长的时间。虽然中国人口的总量增长速度越来越慢,但它的规模其实一直在扩大,这是惯性增长的表现。
人口增长的速度各指标在进入20世纪90年代以后都呈现下降的趋势。人口自然增长率从1990年的14.39‰下降到1999年的8.18‰;出生率也从1990年的21.06‰下降到1999年的14.64‰;连续几年的人口增量逐年呈平滑下降的趋势。从图中我们可以看到一个无可争辩的事实,即从1990年以后,中国人口的增长率稳步下降,80年代出现的那种波动与反复已不复存在。在人口基数不断增大的条件下,每年净增人口数却逐年下降。很明显,这种增长率和增长人数的平稳下降,构成了90年代中国人口增长的特点。
当总和生育率下降到更替水平以下之后,人口的净再生产率必定小于1,从而使人口的内在增长率变为负值,这标志着中国人口增长的方向性的改变。中国人口从一个增加型人口向一个缩减型人口的转变,是一个具有历史意义的伟大事件,对中华民族的发展具有深远的意义。虽然在人口内在增长率为负值的情况下,人口依然在增长,但是这种增长只是一种惯性增长,是最终走向人口负增长的一个过渡阶段。
(四)2000年以后人口增长速度仍然保持稳步下降趋势。进入新世纪以后,我国的人口增长速度继续呈现出稳定的逐年下降的趋势。人口自然增长率从2000年的7.58‰下降到2006年的5.28‰;出生率也从2000年的14.03‰下降到2000年的12.09‰;出生人数从2000年的1700多万下降到2006年的1500多万。在2000年至2006年间,人口规模从12.67亿缓慢增加到13.14亿。但此时的人口内在自然增长率已经达到-9.2‰。
这说明,这种增加只是其表象而非其内在的质。当一个人口的生育率降至更替水平或以下并保持下去,这就决定了人口的增长最终将达到它的峰值并停止下来。人口总量在达其峰值之前的数十年增长,实质是实现停止增长或负增长的前奏。中国人口在生育率等于或低于更替水平下的增长,完全是年龄结构变动所导致的惯性增长。这种增长既是不可避免的过程,也是实现零增长的必经阶段。虽然中国人口规模的增长在21世纪前30年还不会停止,但它增长的速度却会沿着20世纪90年代所形成的越来越慢的趋势发展下去。到2035年左右,中国口将实现零增长,并逐渐进入负增长阶段。
二、有特色的中国人口发展道路与人口再生产类型转变
迄今为止,人类已经经历了三种人口再生产的类型。第一种是以高出生率、高死亡率以及相应的人口低增长率为特征的原始人口再生产类型,它和原始社会、农业社会相联系,表现为人口平均寿命短,世代更替迅速,人口增长处于停滞状态。第二种是与以手工劳动为主的农业经济相适应的传统人口再生产类型,其特点是高出生率、低死亡率和高人口增长率,人口死亡率有所下降,出生率仍很高,是人口迅速膨胀的时期。第三种是与以现代科学技术为基础的社会化大生产经济相适应的现代人口再生产类型。其主要特点是低出生率、低死亡率和低人口自然增长率。
欧洲的发达国家在工业化开始以后,随着现代科学技术的进步,医学和医疗卫生事业有了迅速的发展,直接导致了人口死亡率的迅速下降,不仅出生婴儿死亡率下降,老年人口死亡率也开始下降,人口开始进入了“高低高”模式。死亡率的降低使得人们的生育观念发生了转变,而现代科学技术在生产中的运用也使得生产力发展对劳动力的需求更多体现在质量而非数量上,进而使人口出生率也逐步下降。多数发达国家死亡率下降开始于十八世纪后半叶,而出生率的下降则开始于十九世纪后半叶,到上世纪三十年代,基本形成了低出生率、低死亡率的现代人口再生产类型。这就是说,多数发达国家的死亡率转变经历了一百多年的时间,而出生率的转变也至少用了五、六十年的时间。
二战以后,随着西方先进的医疗技术的传播,一些发展中国家的死亡率也开始下降,逐步进入了“高低高”的传统人口再生产类型。死亡率下降到了低水平,而出生率仍然居高不下,中间巨大的落差使得很多发展中国家在很长一段时期内处于人口快速增长的阵痛之中。
中国面临着世界上最巨大的人口压力和最复杂的人口形势,但在政策和社会发展的双重作用下,已经圆满实现了人口向“低低低”的现代再生产类型的转变。长期以来我国人口的低生育水平证明,中国这种政策调控和社会发展双管齐下的方式是十分成功的,提前实现了人口再生产类型的历史性转变,有效地缓解了人口对资源、环境的压力,有力地促进了经济发展和社会进步。从图5可以看出,从建国以来,我国的死亡率一直呈下降态势,只有1960年前后由于特定的历史原因出现过波动。而生育率从1963年生育高峰时期的43.37‰下降到2000年的14.03‰,仅仅用了30多年的时间就已经完成了人口从“高低高”向“低低低”的转变。自21世纪以来,人口再生产类型已经完全处于“低低低”的时期。
与其他所有国家不同的是,中国的人口再生产转变并非自然而然的过程,在社会发展因素之外,还受到国家强有力的政策的影响。政策调控与社会经济发展相结合,多管齐下,包括稳定和完善人口政策和生育政策,充分发挥党和政府在人口和计划生育工作中的主导作用,建立利益导向机制、养老保障机制,对群众生育观念和性别平等观念进行宣传倡导等,成功地走出了一条独一无二的具有中国特色的统筹解决人口问题的道路。
三、人口转变带来的新挑战
中国的人口规模控制取得了举世瞩目的成就。但是中国在人口得到控制的同时,一些新的问题又不断出现,使人口问题变得更为复杂,统筹人口问题的工作正面临着新的挑战。首先,人口规模控制和生育率的迅速下降加快了中国人口的老龄化进程。人口老龄化本是人口转变过程中的必然出现的现象之一,但由于中国生育率下降较快,因此,老龄化的来临也就比较快。无论是人口总量的继续扩大,还是人口老龄化的加速,对未来的中国都是严峻的挑战。
而且,人口数量控制与人口老龄化还是一对矛盾。人口数量控制越严格,人口老龄化速度越快,老龄化状况越严重。如果放弃人口控制政策,人口老龄化的进程却会因此而减慢,但是生育率会反弹和上升,人口总量会以更快的速度增加。2005年小普查时,中国65岁以上老年人口已达到9.07%,而预计2030年将达到14%,2040年将快速上升到20.9% 。老年人规模的增加会对社会保障产生巨大的压力,导致医疗保障资金不足,养老设施短缺等一系列问题的产生。中国在经济仍不十分发达的条件下必须面对许多国家在经济发达的条件下才需面对的老龄化问题。所以我们必须利用好人口老龄化高峰时期到来之前的这二、三十年时间,促进经济发展和资金积累,完善社会保障制度,建立起完备的社会保障体系,积极应对老龄化的挑战。
其次,人口出生性别比持续和大幅度偏高。中国家庭,特别是农村家庭的男孩偏好一直就很强烈。男孩偏好的原因也是多方面的,包括经济、社会、文化等多方面。随着家庭规模的不断缩小,家庭生育孩子的数量不断下降,家庭必须要在有限的生育数量下实现拥有男孩的愿望。从这个意义上说,男孩偏好在生育率下降过程中会显得更为突出和更为强烈,韩国的经历就是一个例证。因此,近些年来,部分地区胎儿的性别鉴定和选择性人工流产的“需求”大大增加,而现代的超声波诊断仪技术的普及又为胎儿性别鉴定提供了技术上的可能性。20世纪80年代以来,我国人口的出生性别比持续攀升,大大超出了正常范围。到2000年以后,出生性别比偏高的情况更为严重,2007年的出生性别比高达120以上。
在中国人口再生产类型即将全面完成的时刻,人口老龄化和出生性别比偏高等问题接踵而来,使得人口问题由原来单纯的数量问题变得更为复杂多样。实现人口规模、结构长期均衡发展,统筹解决人口问题成为我们面对新世纪人口问题的必然战略选择。
四、人口增长与再生产类型转变的历史意义
中国人口规模经历了五六十年代的高速增长,并且在60年代度过了人口规模增长的最高峰后,从70年代开始了人口规模增长速度的快速下降。但是下降的过程并不平坦,80年代人口增长过程出现了反复和波动。直到90年代初,在现代化过程和计划生育政策的双重作用下,总和生育率最终突破更替水平,达到1.8的低生育水平,使人口内在自然增长率首次达到负值,实现了人口增长的方向性的改变。中国人口增长和人口再生产类型转变是中国人口发展史上具有历史意义的里程碑事件,对中国社会长期发展产生深远的影响。
首先,人口增长方向性的转变使中国人口摆脱了历史上在农业经济条件下的盲目增长和收缩的历史循环,人口增长速度出现了趋势性的下降,并逐步向零增长接近,为中国现代化的顺利推进铺平了道路。几千年来,中国人口一直在波动中增长。其间虽有不少时期人口增长率也曾出现过负值,人口规模也出现过绝对缩小,但那都是因为战争、饥饿、自然灾害等原因而出现的暂时现象。从中国人口发展的历史来看,增长一直是它的“趋势”和主旋律。
从表面上看,中国人口的规模现在仍在继续增长,人口自然增长率仍为正值,但由于总和生育率已经降到更替水平以下,人口内在自然增长率其实已经是负值。现在人口规模的继续增长,只是人口年龄结构导致的人口惯性。只要中国的总和生育率继续维持在更替水平以下,年龄结构的影响就会逐渐消失,人口的自然增长率就会逐渐接近人口的内在自然增长率,先达到零增长,然后达到负增长。总和生育率跌破更替水平,表明中国人口规模增长的趋势已经发生方向性的改变,中国人口规模已经由增长的趋势变为缩减的趋势。这是中国人口增长过程中本质性的变化。
第二,中国人口再生产类型的转变极大地缓解了中国庞大人口对资源环境的重压,为进一步优化中国的发展环境、拓宽发展空间创造了最为宝贵的客观条件。几百年来,特别是近100多年来,巨大的人口规模像一个沉重的包袱,深深地影响着中国的经济发展。中国一直以它的地大物博自豪于世界。确实,从总量上,中国的众多的自然资源储量都名列世界前茅,它是名副其实的自然资源大国。但是,当用人均指标衡量时,它立刻就成了资源贫匮的落后国。
人口多,底子薄,人均资源少,既成了中国的突出国情,也成了中国追求发展的最大障碍之一。在现代社会中,一个国家的竞争能力和发展能力并不依赖于人口数量,而是依赖于人口素质。提高人口素质的主要内容是大幅度投资于人,投资于教育,提高人均教育水平。在20世纪60年代,中国平均每年出生2700万人左右,在有限的教育资源条件下,人均教育资源占有量不可能快速增长。
中国人口规模在经历了急速扩张后,从20世纪70年代后期开始,不仅人口增长率不断下降,在人口基数不断扩大的条件下,人口规模的净增量也逐年缩小。20世纪70年代初,人口出生数高达2700万,人口净增量每年高达2000万以上,而到现在,每年出生人数降到1600万人左右,人口年净增量已经降到800万左右。从大规模计划生育工作开展以来,中国累计少生了4亿多人口。人口规模的这种减速增长,既大幅度减轻了中国现代化建设过程中的人口压力,又有效提高了中国年轻一代人均教育资源的占有量。
第三,对于世界人口的发展而言,中国人口从高速增长到低速增长转变的历史过程,为即为世界人口转变提供了新的模式和经验,也为缓解世界人口过快增长的局面作出了重大的贡献。中国是世界第一人口大国,它的人口状况和发展,对世界人口的状况和发展具有举足轻重的重大意义。
在十几亿人口的大国,通过人口政策对人口规模发展进行自觉主动的调整,是一场伟大的社会工程,也是一场前无古人的社会试验。正如一位外国学者所说,这场试验如果成功,世界将从中收益,这场试验如果失败,世界也将为之付出代价。让人欣喜的是,30年的实践证明,控制人口规模过快增长的这项伟大工程取得了令人满意的预期效果。世界人口增长速度近20年不断下降,其中中国人口规模增长速度的大幅下降是重要原因之一。另一方面,中国对人口规模进行调控的实践和经验,为世界其它国家,特别是发展中国家提供了新的模式和道路。第二次世界大战以后,许多发展中国家都面临着人口增长速度过快、人口规模过大而严重阻碍经济发展的重大难题,如何解决这个难题,始终是各国领导人的一块“心病”。发展中国家的人口问题不仅错综复杂,而且没有任何前人的经验可以借鉴。各国基本上要靠自己来摸索解决人口问题的道路。
中国的人口规模世界第一,在解决问题的难度上世界没有国家可以与之相比。中国在20世纪后30年成功解决人口规模过快增长的做法,可能很多发展中国家无法模仿,但是,中国的成功实践至少向发展中国家展示了解决人口问题的一种新的可能性和新的模式。无论是在人口理论上和人口实践上,中国的模式都是一个巨大的创新,一个巨大的贡献。
在过去的几十年,中国人口规模经历了由盲目急剧增长向减速低增长的历史性转变。几十年其实只是历史上很短的一段时间,而中国人口大起大落的艰难历程,让中国人口走完了其它国家上百年,甚至几百年才走完的道路。虽然中国人口规模的增长在21世纪前30年还不会停止,但它增长的速度却会沿着20世纪90年代所形成的越来越慢趋势发展下去。到2035年左右,中国人口将实现零增长,并逐渐进入负增长阶段,那将是中国人口发展史上的一个新的里程碑。届时中国人口的总规模可能不再成为世界第一,但是,中国人口规模由“世界最大”向“不是世界最大”变化的历史轨迹却将作为世界人口史上最辉煌的篇章之一载入史册。谢谢大家。
 
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that does not mean Mao didn't kill millions of people, dude.
Ha, if you insist, even CIA declassified documents show it's a big lie. Mao boosted Chinese population, no reduced it, which big killers in the human history boosted the population massively by killing them?
 
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Ha, if you insist, even CIA declassified documents show it's a big lie. Mao boosted Chinese population, no reduced it, which big killers in the human history boosted the population by killing them?
well, you're such a fan boy of your own government, that i'm going to have to question if the documents you provided actually came from the CIA.

we're also done talking. you won't recognize my viewpoints as being even hypothetically plausible, so it's entirely pointless to be discussing anything with you at all.
 
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well, you're such a fan boy of your own government, that i'm going to have to question if the documents you provided actually came from the CIA.

we're also done talking. you won't recognize my viewpoints as being even hypothetically plausible, so it's entirely pointless to be discussing anything with you at all.
Chao, you won't be missed.
 
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