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Friendless India?
October 16, 2016, 8:32 am IST Sunil Sharan in Strategic Insights | India | TOI
It was the winter of India’s discontent. Boris Yeltsin was in power in Russia. In his rare sober moments, he used to rail against India. In his drunk ones, even more. India had lost an old friend.
A new generation of babus and military officers were in power in Delhi. Many of their kids had gone for higher studies to the US. And stuck around there. There then was a natural inclination towards the land of milk and honey. Trips there only fortified the bond. Ah, if India could have the US as a friend. But the Yanks were least bit interested. They had just pushed the Soviets out of Afghanistan and now wanted to forget the backwater that was South Asia.
Pakistan has always seen India as an existential threat. It may be a failed state but it is not a dumb state. It evolved a pincer move to counter India. Control Afghanistan. That land also gave it strategic depth in case of an Indian attack. And befriend China. China doesn’t treat its Muslims, the Uighurs, well. A predominantly Sunni Pakistan could shed blood, sweat and tears for a predominantly Shia Kashmir, but as far as the Uighurs were concerned, well it would “manage” them for China.
Historically India has never seen an existential threat from anybody. Hindu kings of yore never expected invaders to come streaming through the Khyber Pass. Indira Gandhi felt threatened by China and the once-upon-a-time bigger, badder Pakistan, so she got into bed with the Soviets. The affair came in handy in 1971. India imported most, if not all, of its military equipment from the Reds. We signed a treaty to protect each other.
Even though India faces an existential threat from Pakistan and China, our leaders, like the Hindu kings of old, act quite blase about it. Our military constantly talks of winning a two-front war, but can it? If India attacks Pakistan, Pakistan might nuke us, in which case it will invite a massive retaliatory strike. If the recent surgical strikes are true, then Pakistan has done a deft two-step. Were it to hold itself to its own word, it should have attacked India. But it has chosen to altogether deny the strikes.
Second, China could come to Pakistan’s aid, either immediately or when Pakistan’s back starts getting broken, inevitably. Most of India’s forces are concentrated against Pakistan, so if China were to pounce on us, we would stand exposed. Now we might think that we would nuke the Chinese in this case. But using nukes is not such an easy decision. Witness the haircut from North Korea. He keeps shooting missiles near Japan, but far enough so as not to cause panic. If even one plate of sushi in a Japanese restaurant was fried by him, the Japanese would fry all of him. Personally, I like my sushi raw.
The US has lost war after war after war. In the meantime, the Chinese have colonized half of Africa, are trying to do the same in Asia with their one-belt initiative, which includes the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and scare their neighbors but only just enough to remind them who is the new big daddy in town. The US has a treaty arrangement to provide security to both Japan and South Korea, but both countries are skeptical that it has the will to put its money where its mouth is.
We claim to be natural allies and/or strategic partners of the US. The US says that it is pivoting to Asia and will build India as a counterweight to China. Really? Our friendship reminds one of a couple on a park bench. One sidles up to the other to kiss her, but she keeps sidling away. Even Bollywood allows kissing now. But there is no smooching between India and the US, forget about consummation. And if the US is so weary that it cannot protect allies it has already consummated, do you think it will come to India’s aid if push comes to shove.
The Russians still make top-class Sukhois, Migs, tanks and what-not. But our policy makers wanted to diversify away from them. France, the UK, Germany. Sure, the French supported us after the 1998 nuclear blasts, but the others have been chiding us forever. But they are so beautiful to visit. And I just love frog’s legs. Yeah, Russia is beautiful, and there is enough white meat (strictly, only to observe) there but it doesn’t speak English, so it’s all rather inconvenient. And then there is so much Russian white meat in Delhi itself. And it speaks English, somewhat.
The Russkies are mighty mad at us. They have started conducting military drills with Pakistan, a first for either country. India yelps, as usual. But who kicked the Russians away. And now you are crying that Pakistan is bagging them. So our prime minister digs deep into “Russian in the Immortal Words of Tolstoy”, translated into Gujarati, and comes up with the immortal quotation, “An old friend is better than two new ones”, which he uses on whom western media describes as the man with no soul, Vladimir Putin. Do you think Putin is going to fall for this one, especially now that he is dictating the world on Syria and ISIS.
Indian policy makers would do well to remember that everybody’s friend is nobody’s friend.
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/strategic-insights/friendless-india/
October 16, 2016, 8:32 am IST Sunil Sharan in Strategic Insights | India | TOI
It was the winter of India’s discontent. Boris Yeltsin was in power in Russia. In his rare sober moments, he used to rail against India. In his drunk ones, even more. India had lost an old friend.
A new generation of babus and military officers were in power in Delhi. Many of their kids had gone for higher studies to the US. And stuck around there. There then was a natural inclination towards the land of milk and honey. Trips there only fortified the bond. Ah, if India could have the US as a friend. But the Yanks were least bit interested. They had just pushed the Soviets out of Afghanistan and now wanted to forget the backwater that was South Asia.
Pakistan has always seen India as an existential threat. It may be a failed state but it is not a dumb state. It evolved a pincer move to counter India. Control Afghanistan. That land also gave it strategic depth in case of an Indian attack. And befriend China. China doesn’t treat its Muslims, the Uighurs, well. A predominantly Sunni Pakistan could shed blood, sweat and tears for a predominantly Shia Kashmir, but as far as the Uighurs were concerned, well it would “manage” them for China.
Historically India has never seen an existential threat from anybody. Hindu kings of yore never expected invaders to come streaming through the Khyber Pass. Indira Gandhi felt threatened by China and the once-upon-a-time bigger, badder Pakistan, so she got into bed with the Soviets. The affair came in handy in 1971. India imported most, if not all, of its military equipment from the Reds. We signed a treaty to protect each other.
Even though India faces an existential threat from Pakistan and China, our leaders, like the Hindu kings of old, act quite blase about it. Our military constantly talks of winning a two-front war, but can it? If India attacks Pakistan, Pakistan might nuke us, in which case it will invite a massive retaliatory strike. If the recent surgical strikes are true, then Pakistan has done a deft two-step. Were it to hold itself to its own word, it should have attacked India. But it has chosen to altogether deny the strikes.
Second, China could come to Pakistan’s aid, either immediately or when Pakistan’s back starts getting broken, inevitably. Most of India’s forces are concentrated against Pakistan, so if China were to pounce on us, we would stand exposed. Now we might think that we would nuke the Chinese in this case. But using nukes is not such an easy decision. Witness the haircut from North Korea. He keeps shooting missiles near Japan, but far enough so as not to cause panic. If even one plate of sushi in a Japanese restaurant was fried by him, the Japanese would fry all of him. Personally, I like my sushi raw.
The US has lost war after war after war. In the meantime, the Chinese have colonized half of Africa, are trying to do the same in Asia with their one-belt initiative, which includes the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and scare their neighbors but only just enough to remind them who is the new big daddy in town. The US has a treaty arrangement to provide security to both Japan and South Korea, but both countries are skeptical that it has the will to put its money where its mouth is.
We claim to be natural allies and/or strategic partners of the US. The US says that it is pivoting to Asia and will build India as a counterweight to China. Really? Our friendship reminds one of a couple on a park bench. One sidles up to the other to kiss her, but she keeps sidling away. Even Bollywood allows kissing now. But there is no smooching between India and the US, forget about consummation. And if the US is so weary that it cannot protect allies it has already consummated, do you think it will come to India’s aid if push comes to shove.
The Russians still make top-class Sukhois, Migs, tanks and what-not. But our policy makers wanted to diversify away from them. France, the UK, Germany. Sure, the French supported us after the 1998 nuclear blasts, but the others have been chiding us forever. But they are so beautiful to visit. And I just love frog’s legs. Yeah, Russia is beautiful, and there is enough white meat (strictly, only to observe) there but it doesn’t speak English, so it’s all rather inconvenient. And then there is so much Russian white meat in Delhi itself. And it speaks English, somewhat.
The Russkies are mighty mad at us. They have started conducting military drills with Pakistan, a first for either country. India yelps, as usual. But who kicked the Russians away. And now you are crying that Pakistan is bagging them. So our prime minister digs deep into “Russian in the Immortal Words of Tolstoy”, translated into Gujarati, and comes up with the immortal quotation, “An old friend is better than two new ones”, which he uses on whom western media describes as the man with no soul, Vladimir Putin. Do you think Putin is going to fall for this one, especially now that he is dictating the world on Syria and ISIS.
Indian policy makers would do well to remember that everybody’s friend is nobody’s friend.
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/strategic-insights/friendless-india/
, Not in our own hands. 
