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Former Indian Su-30K in the Belarusian Air Force? | Open Source IMINT
Last year it was reported that Vietnam would try to buy Indias older Su-30K that had been transferred to the 558th Aircraft Repair Plant in Belarus. In light of recent news last December announcing that Belarus would be retiring its Su-27, it seems likely that Belarus may be keeping the Su-30K for its own air force.
Russia has long included Belarus as a part of its export supply chain, repairing older military equipment in order to keep Belarusian maintenance proficiencies up to par. Not to mention, Belarus has often relied upon military exports as a key area of income.
The recent transfer of 18 former Indian Su-30K to the Belarusian-based 558 Aircraft Repair Plant provides another example where both parties could potentially benefit from their ongoing partnership. Alternatively, Belarus December announcement that it has retired the Su-27 may provide Russia with an opportunity to gain a further foothold in its former empire, similar to its position in Armenia. [1]
What will eventually happen is left to anyones guess, but heres a couple of scenarios currently under consideration.
Best Case
In the best case scenario for Belarus, the air force will acquire the Su-30K and upgrade the aircraft to the KN version, all for a paltry cost of $270 million. [2] Such a sale would allow Russia to offload outdated aircraft but also improve the Belarusian Air Force, an important actor to defend against any potential attack from the West.
While many rightfully cite economic constraints as an indicator preventing the possible sale, those same analysts often forget the proposal with Neatherlands-based ECA. According to a report in the Financial Times in late 2010, ECA has agreed to buy 15 x Su-27 Flanker jets from BelTechExport, a Belarusian arms export company, with the option of [acquiring] 18 more.
The price tag associated with the private sale comes in at $1.5 billion. In that light, Decembers announcement of the Su-27 retirement may suggest that the ECA deal is on the verge of coming to fruition. The revenue from the sale would more than pay for the Su-30Ks including their upgrades and provide Belarus with some additional income.
Worst Case
In the worst case scenario, the Belarus-ECA deal falls through and the Belarusian Air Force would only be left with the MiG-29s for air superiority. However, as a partner of the regional joint air defense agreement, Russia is probably not willing to leave Belarus without additional defenses. Not surprisingly, a representative from the Russian Ministry of Defense in April reported that the Russian air force would send a regiment of warplanes to the country along with four additional S-300 surface-to-air missile battalions.
Belarus recent base realignment and closure certainly has provided some available airfields and Belarus does not appear to have but one S-300 battalion along its border with Poland. The additional military hardware will certainly enhance Russias defense environment, providing a public good for Belarus. However doing so, may mean that Belarus is slowing being whittled away, soon to absorbed by big brother at a later date. With the customs union progressing, further integration may come sooner rather than later.
Bottom Line
The opportunity to overhaul the Su-30K in partnership with Russian firms will further enhance Belarusian maintenance proficiencies. At best, it will provide Belarus a potential upgrade for its Air and Air Defense Force on the cheap.
Last year it was reported that Vietnam would try to buy Indias older Su-30K that had been transferred to the 558th Aircraft Repair Plant in Belarus. In light of recent news last December announcing that Belarus would be retiring its Su-27, it seems likely that Belarus may be keeping the Su-30K for its own air force.
Russia has long included Belarus as a part of its export supply chain, repairing older military equipment in order to keep Belarusian maintenance proficiencies up to par. Not to mention, Belarus has often relied upon military exports as a key area of income.
The recent transfer of 18 former Indian Su-30K to the Belarusian-based 558 Aircraft Repair Plant provides another example where both parties could potentially benefit from their ongoing partnership. Alternatively, Belarus December announcement that it has retired the Su-27 may provide Russia with an opportunity to gain a further foothold in its former empire, similar to its position in Armenia. [1]
What will eventually happen is left to anyones guess, but heres a couple of scenarios currently under consideration.
Best Case
In the best case scenario for Belarus, the air force will acquire the Su-30K and upgrade the aircraft to the KN version, all for a paltry cost of $270 million. [2] Such a sale would allow Russia to offload outdated aircraft but also improve the Belarusian Air Force, an important actor to defend against any potential attack from the West.
While many rightfully cite economic constraints as an indicator preventing the possible sale, those same analysts often forget the proposal with Neatherlands-based ECA. According to a report in the Financial Times in late 2010, ECA has agreed to buy 15 x Su-27 Flanker jets from BelTechExport, a Belarusian arms export company, with the option of [acquiring] 18 more.
The price tag associated with the private sale comes in at $1.5 billion. In that light, Decembers announcement of the Su-27 retirement may suggest that the ECA deal is on the verge of coming to fruition. The revenue from the sale would more than pay for the Su-30Ks including their upgrades and provide Belarus with some additional income.
Worst Case
In the worst case scenario, the Belarus-ECA deal falls through and the Belarusian Air Force would only be left with the MiG-29s for air superiority. However, as a partner of the regional joint air defense agreement, Russia is probably not willing to leave Belarus without additional defenses. Not surprisingly, a representative from the Russian Ministry of Defense in April reported that the Russian air force would send a regiment of warplanes to the country along with four additional S-300 surface-to-air missile battalions.
Belarus recent base realignment and closure certainly has provided some available airfields and Belarus does not appear to have but one S-300 battalion along its border with Poland. The additional military hardware will certainly enhance Russias defense environment, providing a public good for Belarus. However doing so, may mean that Belarus is slowing being whittled away, soon to absorbed by big brother at a later date. With the customs union progressing, further integration may come sooner rather than later.
Bottom Line
The opportunity to overhaul the Su-30K in partnership with Russian firms will further enhance Belarusian maintenance proficiencies. At best, it will provide Belarus a potential upgrade for its Air and Air Defense Force on the cheap.
