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Fitch Revises India's Outlook to Negative, Affirms IDR at 'BBB-'

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Thu 18 Jun, 2020 - 12:03 am ET

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 18 Jun 2020: Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the rating at 'BBB-'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The revision of the Outlook to Negative on India's Long-Term IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers:

The coronavirus pandemic has significantly weakened India's growth outlook for this year and exposed the challenges associated with a high public-debt burden. Fitch expects economic activity to contract by 5% in the fiscal year ending March 2021 (FY21) from the strict lockdown measures imposed since 25 March 2020, before rebounding by 9.5% in FY22.

The rebound will mainly be driven by a low-base effect. Our forecasts are subject to considerable risks due to the continued acceleration in the number of new COVID-19 cases as the lockdown is eased gradually. It remains to be seen whether India can return to sustained growth rates of 6% to 7% as we previously estimated, depending on the lasting impact of the pandemic, particularly in the financial sector.


The humanitarian and health needs have been pressing, but the government has shown expenditure restraint so far, due to the already high public-debt burden going into the crisis, with additional relief spending representing only about 1% of GDP by our estimates. Most elements of an announced package totalling 10% of GDP are non-fiscal in nature. Some further fiscal spending of up to 1 percentage point of GDP may still be announced in the next few months, which was indicated by a recent announcement of additional borrowing for FY21 of 2% of GDP, although we do not expect a steep rise in spending.


Fiscal metrics have deteriorated significantly, notwithstanding the government's expenditure restraint, due to the impact of the severe growth slowdown on revenue, the fiscal deficit and public-sector debt ratios. Fitch expects general government debt to jump to 84.5% of GDP in FY21 from an estimated 71.0% of GDP in FY20. This is significantly higher than the median of 42.2% of GDP for the 'BBB' category in 2019, to which FY20 corresponds, and 52.6% for 2020. The medium-term fiscal outlook is of particular importance from a rating perspective, but is subject to great uncertainty and will depend on the level of GDP growth and the government's policy intentions.


India's record of fiscal consolidation has been mixed since the 2008 global financial crisis, with the general government debt remaining broadly stable at close to 70% of GDP for over a decade. Double-digit nominal GDP growth has not led to a decline in the government debt ratio in recent years, an important reason being the crystallisation of contingent liabilities and significant off-budget financing. Weak implementation of fiscal rules stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act contributes to our view that a speedy fiscal improvement after the pandemic recedes is unlikely.


India's medium-term GDP growth outlook may be negatively affected by renewed asset-quality challenges in banks and liquidity issues in non-banking financial companies (NBFC). The financial sector was already facing weak business and consumer confidence before the crisis and authorities had to deal with some high-profile cases over lapses in governance. Nonetheless, the banking sector's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio likely improved to 9.0% in FY20 from 11.6% two year earlier, according to our estimate, due to government capital injections.


A renewed rise in NPLs and the need for further financial government support now seem inevitable despite regulatory measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). These measures include an extension of the 90-day moratorium on recognition of impaired loans to 180 days and several relaxations in bank lending limits such as allowing banks to fund interest on working-capital loans. These moves will put a heavy onus particularly on public-sector banks to bail out the affected sectors and extend impaired-loan recognition, heightening solvency risks if not met by adequate and timely capital support.

India's 'BBB-' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:-

The relatively closed nature of India's capital markets, with limited foreign portfolio inflows, supports the authorities' ability to finance wider fiscal deficits domestically. Only around 4% of government securities are held by non-residents and the external liabilities account for just 6% of central government debt. The RBI has also built up its foreign-exchange reserve buffers in recent months to USD502 billion by 5 June 2020, covering around nine months of current account payments, higher than the 'BBB' median of five months. The government intends to open up more to foreign capital in the next few years as a source of deficit financing, but foreign investors' tolerance for government debt at current levels, with a significantly larger portion of external debt, remains to be tested.


The RBI cut its policy rates by 115bp since March this year to support the economy and provided liquidity through long-term repo operations, including targeted ones to stimulate bank lending to NBFCs. We expect the RBI to cut its policy rate by at least another 25bp this fiscal year, as a recent spike in food prices is receding and near-term price moves are likely to be disinflationary in the current environment. A credible inflation-targeting framework in place since 2016 makes debt reduction through high inflation less likely over the medium term. India experienced double-digit inflation in the few years immediately following the deterioration in fiscal metrics during the global financial crisis.


The government has announced structural reforms as part of its response to the pandemic to strengthen GDP growth over the medium term, which, if successful, could improve India's fiscal position. Reforms to improve the efficiency of agricultural supply chains could help reduce food prices and swings in inflation, with food prices accounting for almost half of the CPI basket. The intention to privatise state-owned enterprises (SOE) could also be transformative, depending on the details, the willingness of the government to sell stakes of over 50%, and the demand for these assets in the current environment. The combined debt of around 200 SOEs owned by the central government amounts to 6.7% of GDP, but such information is unavailable for the around 800 SOEs owned by state governments.


Geopolitical risk related to longstanding border issues with India's neighbours was highlighted again by recently intensified tensions with China. Relations with Pakistan are, moreover, negatively affected by the repeal of the special status for Kashmir and recent changes to the status of illegal immigrants based on their religion. A stronger focus by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on its Hindu-nationalist agenda since the government's re-election in May 2019 risks becoming a distraction for economic reform implementation and could further raise social tensions.


The Indian economy is less developed on a number of structural metrics than many of its peers. India's ranking for Ease of Doing Business has drastically improved in recent years; at the 68th percentile it is now comparable, albeit still below, the 'BBB' median of the 71st percentile. India's relatively low basic human development is indicated by its ranking on the United Nations Human Development Index (32nd percentile versus the BBB median of 67th percentile), while average per capita GDP also remains low, at USD2,100, compared with the 'BBB' range median of USD12,172.


ESG - Governance: India has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for both Political Stability and Rights, and the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as is the case for all sovereigns. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. India has a medium World Bank Governance Indicator ranking at the 49th percentile (below the BBB median of 58th percentile), reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, moderate institutional capacity and established rule of law, but a high level of corruption.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns India a score equivalent to a rating of 'BBB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale. Fitch's sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

- A structurally weaker real GDP growth outlook, for instance due to continued financial-sector weakness or reform implementation that is lacking.

- Failure to reduce the fiscal deficit after the pandemic recedes, and to put the general government debt/GDP ratio on a downward trajectory.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

- Implementation of a credible strategy to reduce general government debt after the pandemic that would put it on a path towards the 'BBB' peer median.

- Higher sustained investment and growth rates in the medium term without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

The world economy performs broadly in line with Fitch's latest Global Economic Outlook, published in May 2020.


REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

India has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight.

India has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight.

India has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as strong social stability and voice and accountability are reflected in the World Bank Governance Indicators that have the highest weight in the SRM. They are relevant to the rating and a rating driver.

India has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for India, as for all sovereigns.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies). For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.

RATING ACTIONS
ENTITY/DEBT RATING PRIOR
India LT IDR BBB- Affirmed BBB-
ST IDR F3 Affirmed F3
LC LT IDR BBB- Affirmed BBB-
LC ST IDR F3 Affirmed F3
Country Ceiling BBB- Affirmed BBB-
VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

APPLICABLE CRITERIA
APPLICABLE MODELS
Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).

  • Country Ceiling Model, v1.7.1 (1)
  • Debt Dynamics Model, v1.2.0 (1)
  • Macro-Prudential Indicator Model, v1.4.0 (1)
  • Sovereign Rating Model, v3.12.0 (1)
ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
ENDORSEMENT STATUS
India EU Endorsed
ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES FOR UNSOLICITED CREDIT RATINGS
India (Unsolicited)
With Rated Entity or Related Third Party Participation Yes
With Access to Internal Documents Yes
With Access to Management Yes
DISCLAIMER
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, THE FOLLOWING

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COPYRIGHT
Copyright © 2020 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (in

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SOLICITATION STATUS
The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below.



UNSOLICITED ISSUERS
ENTITY/SECURITY ISIN/CUSIP/COUPON RATE RATING TYPE SOLICITATION STATUS
India - Long Term Issuer Default Rating Unsolicited
India - Short Term Issuer Default Rating Unsolicited
India - Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating Unsolicited
India - Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating Unsolicited
India - Country Ceiling Unsolicited


ENDORSEMENT POLICY
Fitch's approach to ratings endorsement so that ratings produced outside the EU may be used by regulated entities within the EU for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU Regulation with respect to credit rating agencies, can be found on the EU Regulatory Disclosures page. The endorsement status of all International ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for all structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.

https://www.fitchratings.com/resear...ook-to-negative-affirms-idr-at-bbb-18-06-2020
 
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Here's one more economic story from SHINING INDIA. To all the emotionally challenged Sanghis, please don't read ahead. The story will cause you a heart-burn. Isn't it great news: more unemployed yet unemployable, low-wage Indian coolies to be exploited by my types. We'll see many more young Sanghini Indian girls work at massage parlours and cheap brothels :cheesy:

Developing Asia to “barely grow” in 2020; India’s GDP to contract by 4 % this fiscal: ADB
(source: PTI)

nationalherald%2F2020-06%2F4c0523b2-1423-410a-9a06-dc1bb2a6b724%2F4.jpg


The Asian Development Bank on Thursday said countries in Developing Asia will "barely grow" in 2020, while India's economy is forecast to contract by 4 per cent this fiscal due to the adverse effect of the coronavirus pandemic.

Developing Asia will barely grow in 2020, as containment measures to address the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to hamper economic activity and weaken external demand, ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

'Developing Asia' refers to a group of over 40 countries that are members of the ADB.

Excluding the newly industrialised economies of Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, China, Developing Asia is forecast to grow 0.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2021, it said.

Hit hard by COVID-19, South Asia is forecast to contract by 3 per cent in 2020, compared to 4.1 per cent growth predicted in April. Growth prospects for 2021 are revised down to 4.9 per cent from 6 per cent, it said.

"India's economy is forecast to contract by 4 per cent in fiscal year (FY) 2020, ending on 31 March 2021, before growing 5 per cent in FY2021 (to be ending March 2022)," according to the ADO supplement.

In the ADO published on April 3, ADB had had projected that India's economic growth rate will slip to 4 per cent in the current fiscal on account of the global health emergency created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Economies in Asia and the Pacific will continue to feel the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic this year even as lockdowns are slowly eased and select economic activities restart in a 'new normal' scenario," said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.

Sawada further said, "while we see a higher growth outlook for the region in 2021, this is mainly due to weak numbers this year, and this will not be a V-shaped recovery. Governments should undertake policy measures to reduce the negative impact of COVID-19 and ensure that no further waves of outbreaks occur."

As per ADB forecast, risks to the outlook remain on the downside.

The COVID-19 pandemic may see multiple waves of outbreaks in the coming period and sovereign debt and financial crises can not be ruled out.

"There is also the risk of renewed escalation in trade tensions between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC)," it added.

For countries in Developing Asia, ADB forecasts growth of 0.1 for the region in 2020. This is down from the 2.2 per cent forecast in April and would be the slowest growth for the region since 1961, it said.

Growth in 2021 is expected to rise to 6.2 per cent, as forecast in April. Gross domestic product (GDP) levels in 2021 will remain below what had been envisioned and below pre-crisis trends.

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Where are the resident Indian trolls on this forum? I notice an eerie silence from them while India is being thrashed all over the place, :woot: Even Nepal has gotten too big for its boots. Something's terribly messed up. Even Modi, Rajnath Singh, Piyush Goyel, have been stunned into silence.

I hope Pakistan makes a few incursions into the Valley at this appropriate moment. :cheers:
 
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