Fertility Rate Rising in China Under Two-Child Policy

[ashok321]

China's two-child policy is showing "notable results" with the fertility rate expected to rise through to 2020, a senior health official said on Saturday.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of China's annual meeting of parliament, Wang Peian, vice-minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission said there were "notable results" in 2016, with the largest annual number of newborn babies since 2000.

Wang said 18.46 million live births were recorded last year, two million more than the average of the previous five years.

The total fertility rate also rose to 1.7 children per woman, compared to 1.5-1.6 between 2000 and 2015, he added.

China introduced its controversial "one-child policy" in the 1970s to limit population growth, but authorities are now concerned the country's dwindling workforce will not be able to support an increasingly aging population.

In 2015, China said it would allow all married couples to have two children, to address those concerns.

Wang said the rising trend will continue through to 2020, during which the annual number of newborns is expected to range between 17 million and 19 million.

"We are very optimistic," he added.

China's birth rate, one of the world's lowest, was considered an achievement by the government, which was concerned about over-population, but has since become a source of anxiety for authorities worried about an aging workforce.

http://www.newsweek.com/fertility-rate-rising-china-two-child-policy-566695

 

[Mista]

1.7 is still lower than the replacement rate of 2.1.

 

[nang2]

1.7 is still lower than the replacement rate of 2.1.

slow growth back to 2.1 would be proper. sudden change in fertility rate just causes big problems down the road.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Its their country and their internal affairs.

 

[Mista]

slow growth back to 2.1 would be proper. sudden change in fertility rate just causes big problems down the road.

Unlikely. The trend for TFR is downwards as a country develops and urbanizes.

 

[AndrewJin]

Unlikely. The trend for TFR is downwards as a country develops and urbanizes.

Rich and educated Chinese families in bigger cities are more likely to have more children under this new population policy.

It's natural selection, social darwinism, how China works for thousands of years.

山东2016年的二孩生育意愿在全国最强。在山东2016年出生人口中，二孩占比63.3%，比全国平均的45%要高接近20个百分点。
除山东之外，出生率增幅较大的还有津、沪、京，三地2016年常住人口出生率分别比上一年提升了1.53、1.48、1.36个千分点，提升幅度分别位居全国第二至第四。

 

[Mista]

Rich and educated Chinese families in bigger cities are more likely to have more children under this new population policy.

It's natural selection, social darwinism, how China works for thousands of years.

山东2016年的二孩生育意愿在全国最强。在山东2016年出生人口中，二孩占比63.3%，比全国平均的45%要高接近20个百分点。
除山东之外，出生率增幅较大的还有津、沪、京，三地2016年常住人口出生率分别比上一年提升了1.53、1.48、1.36个千分点，提升幅度分别位居全国第二至第四。

I don't see it. Shanghai's TFR is only around 0.8 the last time I checked. Like other East Asian economies, low TFR is the norm as we become developed. 2.1 is too far.

Social darwinism only works in the past when there was polygamy. The rich have multiple wives and have more children. It's the opposite today.

 

[AndrewJin]

I don't see it. Shanghai's TFR is only around 0.8 the last time I checked. Like other East Asian economies, low TFR is the norm as we become developed. 2.1 is too far.

Social darwinism only works in the past when there was polygamy. The rich have multiple wives and have more children. It's the opposite today.

They have higher second child rate.

Poorer people cannot survive in a society that emphasizes education and high skill.

 

[XiangLong]

Guys, the one-child policy didn't really make any sense to begin with, at least for those of us who were born during the 90's. I can somewhat understand it, when Deng introduced it during the economically stagnant years of the late 70's and 80's, but in my opinion, the law already became obsolete by the mid 90's when the economy was already well on its way to booming. Fertility rates could have been much higher and more balanced by now if we had let go of the one-child policy back in 2000.