Guynextdoor2
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cheaper rupee because of lower oil prices don't compensate for incompetent management of economy. Aur karo time waste, Ghar Wapsi, National Cow Sluaghter Bill, Abolition of UGC by illiterate HRD Minister (yeah she's trying to do that) etc. Meanwhile economy ka satyanaash.
First major shocker for Modi Sarkar: Exports are down - Rediff.com Business
Exports in the first 11 months of 2014-15 were estimated to be $284 billion, a decline over the same period of the previous year.
Failing a dramatic surge during March 2015, exports during the full year that ended on Tuesday will be below the $314 billion clocked in 2013-14.
This will probably be the first macroeconomic indicator to give no comfort to the government led by Narendra Modi.
Whatever may be the actual reason -- driven by methodological changes in computing growth or by real economic revival -- the Indian economy in 2014-15 is expected to grow by 7.4 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent in 2013-14.
Inflation, based both on wholesale and retail prices, has seen a steady decline.
So has the current account deficit, which is now much more benign than what it was a year ago.
The Modi government has taken full credit for all these numbers.
Now that exports for the full year should show either a fall or at best a marginal rise, the Modi government should not hesitate from taking the blame for the poor performance on the exports front.
Remember that in the 10 years of the United Progressive Alliance government, exports fell only in two years -- by 3.5 per cent in 2009-10 in the wake of the global financial crisis, and by 1.82 per cent in 2012-13.
In all other years under the UPA regime, export growth was in double digits (between 14 and 40 per cent) except for 2013-14 when it fell to around five per cent.
Compared with that, the Modi government has started its innings with a drop in exports!
Failure to allow the much-needed depreciation in the Indian rupee is certainly an important factor contributing to India’s poor exports performance.
A steady drop in the value of the Indian rupee against the dollar would, therefore, go a long way in boosting the country’s exports.
But that alone may not be enough.
A close look at the foreign trade data for the last decade will reveal problematic trends arising out of significant structural changes in the exports sector.
Even as Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents her first five-year trade policy with a view to boosting exports, she would do well to understand the implications of such trends and direct her policy to address them.
The big change in India’s exports sector in the last 10 years is its composition.
The share of petroleum products in total exports in 2004-05 was only about eight per cent.
In 2014-15, petroleum products will account for over 20 per cent of India’s total exports. The change is largely attributed to the commissioning of huge crude oil refining capacities in the country by both private and public sector players.
But the implications of one-fifth of the country’s exports coming from petroleum products cannot be underestimated.
First major shocker for Modi Sarkar: Exports are down - Rediff.com Business
Exports in the first 11 months of 2014-15 were estimated to be $284 billion, a decline over the same period of the previous year.
Failing a dramatic surge during March 2015, exports during the full year that ended on Tuesday will be below the $314 billion clocked in 2013-14.
This will probably be the first macroeconomic indicator to give no comfort to the government led by Narendra Modi.
Whatever may be the actual reason -- driven by methodological changes in computing growth or by real economic revival -- the Indian economy in 2014-15 is expected to grow by 7.4 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent in 2013-14.
Inflation, based both on wholesale and retail prices, has seen a steady decline.
So has the current account deficit, which is now much more benign than what it was a year ago.
The Modi government has taken full credit for all these numbers.
Now that exports for the full year should show either a fall or at best a marginal rise, the Modi government should not hesitate from taking the blame for the poor performance on the exports front.
Remember that in the 10 years of the United Progressive Alliance government, exports fell only in two years -- by 3.5 per cent in 2009-10 in the wake of the global financial crisis, and by 1.82 per cent in 2012-13.
In all other years under the UPA regime, export growth was in double digits (between 14 and 40 per cent) except for 2013-14 when it fell to around five per cent.
Compared with that, the Modi government has started its innings with a drop in exports!
Failure to allow the much-needed depreciation in the Indian rupee is certainly an important factor contributing to India’s poor exports performance.
A steady drop in the value of the Indian rupee against the dollar would, therefore, go a long way in boosting the country’s exports.
But that alone may not be enough.
A close look at the foreign trade data for the last decade will reveal problematic trends arising out of significant structural changes in the exports sector.
Even as Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents her first five-year trade policy with a view to boosting exports, she would do well to understand the implications of such trends and direct her policy to address them.
The big change in India’s exports sector in the last 10 years is its composition.
The share of petroleum products in total exports in 2004-05 was only about eight per cent.
In 2014-15, petroleum products will account for over 20 per cent of India’s total exports. The change is largely attributed to the commissioning of huge crude oil refining capacities in the country by both private and public sector players.
But the implications of one-fifth of the country’s exports coming from petroleum products cannot be underestimated.
